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2pac_71

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,507
My thought is that it could two ways. FOMO leads to tons of people getting in now and driving the price up. On the other hand, people could feel burned from GME and not want to invest. The good news is that GME is still trading at above $250 which is way over its value so this may make people feel more secure on gambling their money on AMC.

I'm going to sell half my position at $40 and let the rest ride. If it does get to GME levels of $420 then all the better. I would love to pay off some bills with this money.

To me what I look at is market cap.
GME at current price is $18 billion
AMC at current price is $12 billion.
This is from google finance so might be off by a little bit.
So I don't see how AMC could go from $26 to $260 which would then be a $120 billion market cap. GME at it's peak I think was close to $40 billion.
I'm not saying it couldn't happen but I rather look at market cap then share price to determine how much further a stock could climb or what is at least feasible.
 

JuanLatino

Cerny’s little helper
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,372
i am not sure if it market cap is someting you should be looking for when it comes to a shorted stock.
you have the detach the fundamentals and value of the company from the stock buyers motivation.

In theory the market cap could reach even 50 Trillion, tough that will never happen.
 

golguin

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,757
To me what I look at is market cap.
GME at current price is $18 billion
AMC at current price is $12 billion.
This is from google finance so might be off by a little bit.
So I don't see how AMC could go from $26 to $260 which would then be a $120 billion market cap. GME at it's peak I think was close to $40 billion.
I'm not saying it couldn't happen but I rather look at market cap then share price to determine how much further a stock could climb or what is at least feasible.

To that I would ask what the market cap limit was thought to be for GME back in January. The meme stocks and crypto have surpassed various limits that people thought would be rational at the time by comparing them to established big name companies.

It feels like whatever limit people think exists can be broken and has been this year.
 

2pac_71

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,507
To that I would ask what the market cap limit was thought to be for GME back in January. The meme stocks and crypto have surpassed various limits that people thought would be rational at the time by comparing them to established big name companies.

It feels like whatever limit people think exists can be broken and has been this year.

I agree with you. I have no idea what the limit is but looking at GME share price of $480+ or whatever the high was and to then say I think AMC can get there. I think is not the right way to look at it. It's better to say what was the market cap of GME (It seems to be about $34.5 billion) at the high and perhaps AMC can match that. If AMC can match that then you get a share price of $76-77 bucks I think with quick math.

To say, that since GME went to $480 that maybe AMC can get there. Would give a market cap of about $220 billion which is 7x what GME did.

I could see the $76-77 scenario maybe happening. but the $480 scenario would be insane. Yes GME went to $480, but it only maxed out at $34.5 billion market cap. To suggest AMC could match GME stock price and touch a market cap of $220 billion would mean that AMC would be worth as much as NFLX.

Again I have no idea what could happen and I agree with you that all limits and what people thought has been shattered. But I just wanted to show the math / market cap as I like using that to determine how high a stock could go then share price since share price is misleading.

Take this example if you were to talk to a stranger off the street. If you never mentioned market cap to them but just share price.

You could have a stock price be $1,000 but a market cap of $1 billion. I could see how that stock price could go from $1,000 to $40,000 and be worth $40 billion in market cap. But I'm sure if you told them this, a person who didn't know anything about stocks would think you would be crazy suggesting a stock could go from $1,000 to $40,000.

But if you said to him there was a share price of $1.00 (but it was worth $1 trillion). You could ask them, which is far more likely. The $1,000 to $40,000 or the $1.00 to $40 bucks. Same % Return. I'm sure most people would say well if it's $1 it could go to $40 vs the $1,000 to $40,000.

That's all I'm trying to convey with the share price vs market cap. Friends of mine still think that since MSFT is worth $240, but TSLA is worth $650 or whatever that TSLA is more valuable company.
 
Oct 27, 2017
798
In theory the market cap could reach even 50 Trillion, tough that will never happen.
Jesus there are so many awful takes in this thread it's tough to know where to start, but this one is just SO ridiculous I had to comment.

The entire US stock market isn't even worth that (it falls ever so slightly short). So what your post says is that "in theory" AMC could be as big as literally every other stock in the entire US market combined? And about 25 times the current market cap of the world's largest publicly traded company?

No. No it couldn't. And that's that.

People really need to step back here and get a grip on expectations and at least try to have some actual grasp of how this all actually works. Could AMC go much higher? Yeah, absolutely. Could it break three digits? I would not expect so, but sure - not out of the realm of the possible.

But people throwing around these multi-hundred prices as potentially possible are just absolutely delusional.
 

Big-E

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,169
It is all just theoretical because it is entirely based on shorts being so much more than actual supply. Market cap has nothing to do with it.
 

JuanLatino

Cerny’s little helper
Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,372
Jesus there are so many awful takes in this thread it's tough to know where to start, but this one is just SO ridiculous I had to comment.

The entire US stock market isn't even worth that (it falls ever so slightly short). So what your post says is that "in theory" AMC could be as big as literally every other stock in the entire US market combined? And about 25 times the current market cap of the world's largest publicly traded company?

No. No it couldn't. And that's that.

People really need to step back here and get a grip on expectations and at least try to have some actual grasp of how this all actually works. Could AMC go much higher? Yeah, absolutely. Could it break three digits? I would not expect so, but sure - not out of the realm of the possible.

But people throwing around these multi-hundred prices as potentially possible are just absolutely delusional.

Jesus did you read my post
The only theoretical limit on market cap is the supply of money in the world.

i never said it will happen - it will never happen - all those 100k amc Post are ridicolous - it would destory the whole financial system. But on paper it absolutely is possible.

if the short sellers have to cover their position and EVERY AMC Owner would demand 100k which will NEVER happen, it would reach that market cap.

So when it comes to a shorted stock, i am just saying, that the fundamentals and the value of the company should be detached from the stock.

personally i am hoping for 40/50 Euros - if it doesn't happen, i will lose money, that i was ready to lose
 
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golguin

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,757
I agree with you. I have no idea what the limit is but looking at GME share price of $480+ or whatever the high was and to then say I think AMC can get there. I think is not the right way to look at it. It's better to say what was the market cap of GME (It seems to be about $34.5 billion) at the high and perhaps AMC can match that. If AMC can match that then you get a share price of $76-77 bucks I think with quick math.

To say, that since GME went to $480 that maybe AMC can get there. Would give a market cap of about $220 billion which is 7x what GME did.

I could see the $76-77 scenario maybe happening. but the $480 scenario would be insane. Yes GME went to $480, but it only maxed out at $34.5 billion market cap. To suggest AMC could match GME stock price and touch a market cap of $220 billion would mean that AMC would be worth as much as NFLX.

Again I have no idea what could happen and I agree with you that all limits and what people thought has been shattered. But I just wanted to show the math / market cap as I like using that to determine how high a stock could go then share price since share price is misleading.

Take this example if you were to talk to a stranger off the street. If you never mentioned market cap to them but just share price.

You could have a stock price be $1,000 but a market cap of $1 billion. I could see how that stock price could go from $1,000 to $40,000 and be worth $40 billion in market cap. But I'm sure if you told them this, a person who didn't know anything about stocks would think you would be crazy suggesting a stock could go from $1,000 to $40,000.

But if you said to him there was a share price of $1.00 (but it was worth $1 trillion). You could ask them, which is far more likely. The $1,000 to $40,000 or the $1.00 to $40 bucks. Same % Return. I'm sure most people would say well if it's $1 it could go to $40 vs the $1,000 to $40,000.

That's all I'm trying to convey with the share price vs market cap. Friends of mine still think that since MSFT is worth $240, but TSLA is worth $650 or whatever that TSLA is more valuable company.

Thats all true. It would be like saying Doge can reach Bitcoin levels because they are both crypto without understanding that Bitcoin has a set limit on the quantity that can be mined while Doge doesn't.
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,946
The main similarities AMC has with GME are 1) they are both unprofitable over-priced companies with failing business models. GME is at least attempting some sort of turnaround (which is unlikely to succeed), while AMC's business model keeps getting worse though. And 2) they appeal to inexperienced investors willing to buy anything at any price in the hope there are more such people at the next level of the pyramid to do the same. Also 3) they are both over 500% of their average 12-month price target from the analysts who cover them, which is based on comps of similar companies, implying a likely drop of 80% from here. The question is when of course. Could be next week, next month, next year, but it's likely.

Key differences are AMC has 6.4x as many shares, and the short interest as a % of the float is about 1/6th of GME's when it was squeezed earlier this year, so the fuel isn't the same.

AMC's largest shareholder sold most of its shares a couple of weeks ago. Sure, they could have got more by waiting a bit, but they knew it was over-priced in the mid-teens.

finance.yahoo.com

AMC's Former Owner And Largest Shareholder Unloads Most Of Its Stake

AMC Entertainment Holdings Inc (NYSE: AMC) has announced that Chinese conglomerate Dalian Wanda Group Co. has sold off nearly all its shares in the U.S.-based theater company. What Happened: Wanda, which had been AMC's largest shareholder, sold off most of its shares on the open market. AMC now...
 
Oct 20, 2018
191
Sheepinator

Pretty sure the short did not cover. That explain the over-price.

finance.yahoo.com

Gamestop, AMC short sellers lost $754 million after Tuesday's rally - Ortex

Investors shorting meme stocks GameStop and AMC Entertainment are estimated to have lost $754 million on Tuesday alone as the shares rallied, data from financial analytics firm Ortex shows. Shares in GameStop, which was at the heart of the so-called "stonks" retail trading mania earlier this...

Short-seller hide their number in Failed to Deliver ( speculation, but it explain it well )

www.marketwatch.com

Retail traders keep meme stocks short squeezed for third straight day

GameStop and AMC surge again as retail traders see proof that short sellers are still messing with their favorite stocks.

"Again, this is not the squeeze. This is just resets of their FTDs," posted user Damselindistress on Reddit board r/Superstonk, referring to the theory that hedge funds failed to deliver on their shorts the first time. "It proves, again, that their shorts were never closed."


And i'm noob, but i think people should talk about the "Float" ( number of share available ), not the marketcap. That's why it's hard to believe AMC reach gamestop ( AMC = about 450 millions, GME = 57-70millions i think )

But it's a hardcore "bet". Because people are betting that the short-seller did not cover. And short-seller use dirty trick to hide their number and their power/money for communicate that "we are good, we cover" lol

But the price is too high, it's not retail moving it ( i think retail is 10% or less ? ), pretty sure it's banks/funds that are betting/know that the short didn't cover.

But again, i'm french, super-noob about this lol. But this saga is SO GOOD and fascinating. The movie or serie could be/will be incredible lol.
 

golguin

Member
Oct 29, 2017
3,757
The AMC rocket has taken off and has surpassed the ATH. Congratulations don't forget to get your money.
 

Hellsing321

Member
Oct 30, 2017
1,810
I forgot I put a couple hundred bucks in AMC back when this all started and now I see it up 200%!? Lol kicking myself for not putting in more now.
 

Orayn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
10,935
I'm up a good amount on AMC, time to sell before the redditors cause me to actually lose money. It's been a fun ride, the last meme investment I still had.
 

Bobson Dugnutt

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,052
Was going to hold until 40 at least but an old sell limit triggered on the opening. Happy with that though overall.

NOK next please.
 
Oct 20, 2018
191
BB, NAKD, EXPRESS, KOSS, BBBY, AMC, GME are all UP big time.

All these are shorted stock ( called by shorter "meme stock" lol )

It really look like it's a margin call/force cover lol. Crazy day

edit : I'm a noob, but i would say buy nothing of these lol. We are too late, it's too risky right now.
 

Chopchop

Member
Oct 25, 2017
14,171
It's easy to kick yourself for missing out, but try not to look back and dwell on it too much, because there will always be something to kick yourself for if you do that. That's just the nature of investing in these volatile things.

There's no real way to know whether something would keep going up or start to crash. It's easy in hindsight, but with the information you had at the time, you probably made a sensible decision to do whatever you did. For peace of mind, it's probably best to own your decisions, and try not to be too hard on yourself about what could have been.

I feel a bit bad about selling before AMC went this high too, but the truth is that I really did just want off the ride at the time, and that's the decision I went with. Best not to look back on it.
 

GoodGamerGuy

Member
Nov 15, 2017
536
I literally sold my AMC and GME last week for a 500 euro loss haha. Really does seem like whenever you sell you just loose, and this was after holding onto it months
 

Sheepinator

Member
Jul 25, 2018
27,946
It's easy to kick yourself for missing out, but try not to look back and dwell on it too much, because there will always be something to kick yourself for if you do that. That's just the nature of investing in these volatile things.

There's no real way to know whether something would keep going up or start to crash. It's easy in hindsight, but with the information you had at the time, you probably made a sensible decision to do whatever you did. For peace of mind, it's probably best to own your decisions, and try not to be too hard on yourself about what could have been.

I feel a bit bad about selling before AMC went this high too, but the truth is that I really did just want off the ride at the time, and that's the decision I went with. Best not to look back on it.
Wise words. When even its largest shareholder is dumping it all (assuming they've since sold that token amount they kept), and they knew a hell of a lot more about AMC than any of us do, it's best not to get too greedy. Remember that after GME's first implosion it dropped over 90%.
 
Oct 26, 2017
735
New York
It's easy to kick yourself for missing out, but try not to look back and dwell on it too much, because there will always be something to kick yourself for if you do that. That's just the nature of investing in these volatile things.

There's no real way to know whether something would keep going up or start to crash. It's easy in hindsight, but with the information you had at the time, you probably made a sensible decision to do whatever you did. For peace of mind, it's probably best to own your decisions, and try not to be too hard on yourself about what could have been.

I feel a bit bad about selling before AMC went this high too, but the truth is that I really did just want off the ride at the time, and that's the decision I went with. Best not to look back on it.

Sound advice. Thank you.
 
Oct 29, 2017
2,581
eyyy its going back up its fine

My goal is $100-$150. That way I can get one of those new M1 iPad Pros but still have enough for capital gains tax
 

spyder_ur

Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,411
Got out for my initial investment at 31. Gonna let the rest ride - I have a feeling this isn't over yet but who knows.
 

ceej

Member
Mar 9, 2021
4,232
Reno, Nv.
Sold at 20 a few days ago. That's twice now I put in 500-700$ on AMC--first at 7$ and this time at 9$. When it doubled I sold because couldn't imagine it staying up. If it drops back to 8$ I'll buy another 500$. I guess I'll have some short capital gains this year....
 
Oct 20, 2018
191
This like e-sport for math enthusiast lol ( or just number-lover, math and Technical Analyst ( TA ) don't seem to work right now lol )