This is precisely the reason I direct these difficult questions to you: I have expectations you will be able to answer them by looking at the big picture of the current market situation. Hope this makes sense.
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This is precisely the reason I direct these difficult questions to you: I have expectations you will be able to answer them by looking at the big picture of the current market situation. Hope this makes sense.
Nintendo would have to seriously mess up for that to happen. Even a safe upgrade, as we saw from GB/C to GBA and DS to 3DS did not offer a catastrophic collapse.
Like to go from Switch to Switch 2 and it was a Wii U type of decline would… raise many eyebrows.
And they would also have to do a Wii U style of upgrade and treat the Switch the same way as the Wii near the end, basically little left in the tank and it just dies.
Nintendo hasn't always been dominant in the JP market like they are these days, but they have always had at least one successful platform on shelves at a time (usually it's a handheld)
It would be very strange for the Succ to be a flop, at least in Japan.
It would be very strange for the Succ to be a flop, at least in Japan.
The Wii U wouldn't have flopped to nearly the extent it did if there was no 3DS, for a whole bunch of reasons.
That is to say, with Nintendo putting all of their software on one device it's almost impossible for it to flop in any way like the Wii U. They'd have to release something incredibly bad, like Virtual Boy levels of bad, while also completely dropping the ball on all of their first party software.
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It's not really a difficult question. The closest to monopoly existed during PS2 days. It was the clear leader, competition was weak, got a huge number of exclusives and was the system you basically had to own for playing a big number of games.
Today is nothing like that, third parties are just adjusting to new standards and move away from being Sony centric after decades of being attached to them.
Yes exactly. Koei Tecmo themselves aim multiplatform, but with contract games they just do what the client wants. Even then they'll sometimes push for more platforms though, like DQ Heroes for PS4.
I forgot about Rubyparty too though. They are pretty much Switch only now. Actually looking back there's some more exclusives than I remembered. Koei Tecmo's console/ecosystem exclusives by dev group since 2017:
Gust
- PS3/PS4/PSV Blue Reflection (2017) also on PC
- NSW Champion Jockey Special (2017)
- NSW Fire Emblem: Three Houses (2018) Nintendo
- NSW Daikoukai Jidai IV with Power-Up Kit HD Version (2021)
- PS4/PSV Warriors All-Stars (2017) also on PC
- n3DS/NSW Fire Emblem Warriors (2017) Nintendo
- NSW Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition (2018) Nintendo, original on Wii U/3DS
- NSW Hyrule Warriors: Age of Calamity (2020) Nintendo
- NSW Touken Ranbu Musou (2021) DMM Games, also on PC
- PSV Harukanaru Toki no Naka de 3 Ultimate (2017)
- 3DS Shingeki no Kyojin: Shichi-Kara no Dasshutsu (2017)
- PSV Kiniro no Corda 2 ff (2017)
- PSV Tokimeki Restaurant: Project Tristars (2018)
- PSV Kiniro no Corda 3: Another Sky feat. Jinnan / Shiseikan / Amane Gakuen (2018)
- NSW Harukanaru Toki no Naka de 7 (2020)
- NSW Buddy Mission BOND (2021) Nintendo
- NSW Angelique Luminarise (2021)
- PS4 Nioh (2017) SIE, later release on PC
- n3DS/NSW Fire Emblem Warriors (2017) Nintendo
- PS4 Dissidia Final Fantasy NT (2018) Square Enix, ported from Arcade, also on PC
- NSW Hyrule Warriors: Definitive Edition (2018) Nintendo
- PSVR Horror Sense: Daruma-san ga Koronda (2019) developed by Koei Tecmo Wave
- NSW Monster Rancher DX (2019) also on iOS/Android/PC
- NSW Marvel Ultimate Alliance 3: The Black Order (2019) Nintendo
- PS4 Nioh 2 (2020) SIE, later ported to PC
- NSW Monster Rancher 2 DX (2020) also on iOS/Android/PC
- PS5 The Nioh Collection (2021) SIE
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Most new consoles and revisions face stock problems at launch, the difference is how long they last.
Switch 2 being a Wii U level flop almost feels like an impossibility at this point. It's like worrying that PS5 would be a Vita level flop.
There are reports out there saying component shortages will make it hard to find.
yeah sorry was talking about this year so mostly during holidays, launch is expected. guess will see.
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How popular is Kimetsu no Yaiba at west? Every game based on anime that isn't Dragonball, One Piece or Naruto has done nothing special at sales so far and I have a hard time seeing something different this time with Sega being the publisher.
The movie did better than any Dragon Ball movie over here, like 45 million. But I think it's performance can be somewhat attributed to being one of those movies that first came out when things were opening up with movie theaters.
I think last week or this passing week, there was an article of shortages being prevalent until 2025.
I was listening to an electric car podcast, there are $1 chips preventing $60,000 cars from shipping and they dont know when this will get fixed.
It's hard to say because it's really popular in the west, but you could say the same thing about MHA and there's never going to be a MHA game selling like the Naruto games.
I was speaking globally. PS5 having a Vita like performance in Japan is possible but that's a regional thing.
yes, the chip shortage is affecting everything right now. automotives kinda fucked themselves with how they bought chips, though
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History has shown that being really popular is something relative when it comes to western market.
is doing better than PS4 so far which is a better comparation.
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When hardware and software values are added it absolutely doesn't even if we assume all consoles remain in Japan.
I wonder how many Switch units Nintendo will manage to sell this holiday.
The OLED and the flagship will compete somewhat
BUT I think October will be huge again this year
I am talking about worldwide hardware
The OLED and the flagship will compete somewhat
BUT I think October will be huge again this year
I am talking about worldwide hardware
It depends what you mean by monopoly.
Last year Nintendo's first-party (Nintendo+Pokemon Co) alone owned 50.63% of the physical software sales and overall 75.59% of the physical software sales were recorded on Nintendo ecosystem.
Of course 2020 was a transition year for Sony, with the launch of PS5, and we miss the digital sales to have the full picture however it's easy to infer that the situation is already strongly lopsided in Nintendo's favour.
In the future more and more third-party software is expected to come out on Switch, even if not exclusively on it, especially for small and mid sized budget games.
This behaviour may sound normal in the west but in Japan PlayStation has always enjoyed disproportionately more support than the other viable alternatives (namely Nintendo, since Xbox is a non factor there) so the transition of franchises traditionally more tied to PS ecosystem to multiplatform will further erode the position of PlayStation in the land of the rising sun.
Here a picture I think will summarise the console market in Japan for the next few years:
Not necessarily a factor of popularity but
Manga sales data in a couple select markets:
US:
2020 Best-selling mangaka:
01./ Kohei Horikoshi [My Hero Academia] - 1,055,010 (+50.2%)
02./ Koyoharu Gotouge [Demon Slayer] - 557,369 (+380.6%)
03./ Junji Ito [Uzumaki, Gyo, Tomie, Smashed, etc.] - 250,858 (+64.4%)
Compared to 700k for MHA and 115k for KnY in 2019. KnY/Gotouge was 8th in 2019.
2020 Best-selling volumes:
01./ My Hero Academia #1 - 136,491 (+38.2%)
02./ My Hero Academia #2 - 106,259 (+54%)
03./ Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba #1 - 80,547
04./ My Hero Academia #24 - 76,151
05./ My Hero Academia #3 - 70,730 (+33.4%)
06./ My Hero Academia #23 - 63,728
07./ Uzumaki HC - 62,465 (+77%)
08./ My Hero Academia #4 - 58,990 (+47.5%)
09./ Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba #2 - 53,372
10./ My Hero Academia #5 - 52,393
11./ My Hero Academia #25 - 50,612
12./ Haikyu!! #1 - 50,292
13./ Toilet-Bound Hanako-kun #1 - 48,185
14./ My Hero Academia #22 - 48,173
15./ Tokyo Ghoul #1 - 47,008 (+74.1%)
16./ My Hero Academia #21 - 41,665
17./ My Hero Academia #6 - 40,325
18./ Demon Slayer: Kimetsu no Yaiba #3 - 39,808
19./ The Promised Neverland #1 - 37,060
20./ Demon Slayer - Kimetsu no Yaiba #7 - 35,552
Currently, Demon Slayer is the second/third best-selling manga of the US (in terms of monthly sales for new volumes), behind MHA/on par with JJK.
France:
2020 Best-selling manga series:
01./ One Piece - 2.2m
02./ MHA - 1.2m
03./ Naruto - 1.2m
04./ The Promised Neverland - 0.8m
05./ Demon Slayer - 0.7m (up from under 100k in 2019)
2020 Best-selling manga volumes:
01./ Naruto #1
02./ Naruto #2
03./ Demon Slayer #1
04./ Dragon Ball Super #10
05./ Naruto #3
06./ One Piece #93
07./ My Hero Academia #1
08./ One Piece #95
09./ One Piece #94
10./ Dragon Ball Super #11
As for 2021, Demon Slayer volume 1 has a chance of being the single best-selling volume of the year. But It's going to be hard to top the Naruto volumes (which are helped by their price being half that of other manga volumes - 3€ instead of 7€). It should easily end the year at 250k units sold (more than twice its 2020 total) which is unprecented, though other manga should reach that level (It happened this year because of the manga boom).
As for new volumes, KnY is 4th, behind OP, Dragon Ball Super and MHA. However, KnY is still growing while DBS is stagnating, so that might change soon.
In terms of sales per series, I think it's going to be third. No one will approach One Piece (whose goal should be 5m), but after that, all of Naruto/MHA/Attack on Titan/Demon Slayer have a chance at beind #2 with 2m-2.5m units sold. Imo MHA will stay second, but Demon Slayer should get that third rank.
These are the only 2 markets that I have data for.
But from what publishers have been saying, this phenomenon is worldwide. However, it's a manga boom. It's unsure if these IP will see their sales elsewhere (video games, merchandising, etc) grow in a similar way.
But KnY is by far the IP that benefitted the most from this boom.
TL;DR
KnY is a top 2 manga IP in the US manga market and a top 3 one in France.
And things should be similar in other countries, with OP and/or MHA sometimes being above (but not always, I recall the KnY manga breaking records at some points in Korea)
As a new launch of course, long term? This thing won't be a simple upgrade, I have faith that it'll be on a lot of early adapters radars (imo)
It looks better ignoring software 😂
I dunno, I'd argue that kid is at least putting in considerable effort.
Anyone know if there's growing interest for Metroid Dread since it's getting closer to release.
Feels like there's a lack of excitement compared to the west.
Feels like there's a lack of excitement compared to the west.
Metroid here won't have the hype, it'll have to be one of those sleeper surprise hits (to get to something like 150k+).
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Last time Japan showed real interest for Metroid was almost 30 years ago and there's no reason to care again with this title.
Switch OLED should be able to shift 80-120k units during its launch week, bringing total Switch sales to 150-200k for the week. Revisions don't come close to reaching the volume of new platform launches (which have been commonly ~300k in the past ~15 years), but they do provide a sizeable boost nonetheless.
If the OLED launch was accompanied by a more appealing Nintendo IP than Metroid, then we could speculate about higher hardware numbers, but since it is what it is, it's better to expect a more modest result where no specific software title contributes to demand.
If the OLED launch was accompanied by a more appealing Nintendo IP than Metroid, then we could speculate about higher hardware numbers, but since it is what it is, it's better to expect a more modest result where no specific software title contributes to demand.
The Vita punched disproportionately above it weight in terms of total number of titles and software sold. The PS5 is currently punching disproportionately below it's weight in terms of software sold. Comparing it to the PS4 makes an even more unfavorable comparison.
That a Zelda game will help push more units than a Metroid game.
I don't think it was that much of a system seller and not really a game that boosted the sales of the lite but yet sales of lite was pretty big (LoZ 2D just launch aside it) Metroid isn't 2D Zelda of course but I don't think it really matter. Metroid is just there and could benefit from a hardware launch
Edit: what other new revision were there with what new game releasing with it? (Like 3ds/DS/etc)
Uh all of them maybe? Why wouldn't you use the opportunity to put some software out at the same time.
n2DS LL had Hey! Pokémon and Ever Oasis for example.
Edit: think I misread, you want a list of all of them?
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Switch Lite had the benefit of serving as a cheaper secondary unit for households. After all, Nintendo themselves was already selling the original Switch without dock for a reduced price through their own website in Japan, so that was always a form of demand they wanted to address. The OLED doesn't have such an obvious purpose, but ~4.5 years after the original Switch's launch is a long enough time to have at least some people be eager for an upgrade.
As for new software accompanying revisions, that's Nintendo's usual strategy.
Naruto, the one with arguably the best sustained performance when it comes to video games, is also the one out of the big three that is most popular in the US and probably all of North America. DBZ has higher highs of course but it never had the sustained sales that Naruto put up in the PS360 days.
One Piece, the most popular one in Japan and one of the best selling comics worldwide, had the most disappointing video game sales with only Pirate Warriors 1 and 2 moving significant units.
One Piece, the most popular one in Japan and one of the best selling comics worldwide, had the most disappointing video game sales with only Pirate Warriors 1 and 2 moving significant units.
Is there actually any game with a sci-fi setting that has been (somewhat) big in Japan? Right now the closest thing I can think of is Star Ocean, but even that IP falls back on a mix of sci-fi and medieval.
The whole sci-fi theme may just be something that doesn't gel with Japanese tastes.
NBA2K launch week comparison
12./00. [PS4] NBA 2K22 # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2021.09.10} (¥7.000) - 6.291 / NEW <60-80%>
17./00. [NSW] NBA 2K22 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2021.09.10} (¥6.000) - 4.401 / NEW <40-60%>
Total - 10.692
07./00. [PS4] NBA 2K21 # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2020.09.04} (¥7.000) - 8.541 / NEW <40-60%>
26./00. [NSW] NBA 2K21 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2020.09.04} (¥6.000) - 2.489 / NEW <20-40%>
Total - 11,130
04./00. [PS4] NBA 2K20 # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2019.09.06} (¥7.000) - 13.461 / NEW <60-80%>
19./00. [NSW] NBA 2K20 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2019.09.06} (¥7.000) - 2.828 / NEW <20-40%>
Total - 16,289
17./00. [PS4] NBA 2K19 # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2018.09.11} (¥7.800) - 3.825 / NEW <60-80%>
12./00. [PS4] NBA 2K22 # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2021.09.10} (¥7.000) - 6.291 / NEW <60-80%>
17./00. [NSW] NBA 2K22 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2021.09.10} (¥6.000) - 4.401 / NEW <40-60%>
Total - 10.692
07./00. [PS4] NBA 2K21 # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2020.09.04} (¥7.000) - 8.541 / NEW <40-60%>
26./00. [NSW] NBA 2K21 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2020.09.04} (¥6.000) - 2.489 / NEW <20-40%>
Total - 11,130
04./00. [PS4] NBA 2K20 # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2019.09.06} (¥7.000) - 13.461 / NEW <60-80%>
19./00. [NSW] NBA 2K20 <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2019.09.06} (¥7.000) - 2.828 / NEW <20-40%>
Total - 16,289
17./00. [PS4] NBA 2K19 # <SPT> (Take-Two Interactive Japan) {2018.09.11} (¥7.800) - 3.825 / NEW <60-80%>
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