Nintendo Switch HW sales trend upwards in every region since E3

sinonobu · Jul 31, 2018

From Nintendo's Earning Release

For Nintendo Switch, hardware sales in every region have been trending upwards since the video game expo, E3, was held in the US in June. In parallel with an increase in digital sales, software sales also have been moving in good shape towards the holiday season.

https://www.nintendo.co.jp/ir/pdf/2018/180731e.pdf

Nintendo is also keeping their forecast of 20 million HW and 100 million SW sales for this FY.

takriel · Jul 31, 2018

Pokemon and Smash are gonna destroy HW and SW sales.

VariantX · Jul 31, 2018

2 massive games are dropping this fall. Both of them evergreen games too. Smash likely to be the biggest FG of the generation

Deleted member 2793 · Jul 31, 2018

Can the dumb doom & gloom about E3 stop now?

And maybe people should stop the "momentum down" narrative. Q1 was slower, but Nintendo saying sales since E3 are in a better pace and they don't feel the need to change their 20M forecast, guess Pokémon and Smash are selling HW pretty well already now.

Napalm_Frank · Jul 31, 2018

VariantX said:
2 massive games are dropping this fall. Both of them evergreen games too. Smash likely to be the biggest FG of the generation

December is fall?

cw_sasuke · Jul 31, 2018

Not surprising...first two months of that quarter were quite slow, especially with Dark Souls being MIA.

Starting with e3 they had Fortnite and Mario Tennis build up some momentum.

Napalm_Frank · Jul 31, 2018

cw_sasuke said:
Not surprising...first two months of that quarter were quite slow, especially with Dark Souls being MIA.

Starting with e3 they had Fortnite and Mario Tennis build up some momentum.

It's the Hollow Knight Effect.

ItWasMeantToBe19 · Jul 31, 2018

We have no idea to what degree they mean and they had like 3-5 big games released the week of e3 followed by Mario Tennis and Octopath Traveler right afterward.

IDK.

hussien-11 · Jul 31, 2018

Heartskips said:
Can the dumb doom & gloom about E3 stop now?

It wasn't dumb at all. it sent the stock down heavily. sales picked up probably with many new releases like Fortnite/MarioTennis/Donkey Kong/Octopath and the system started to gain momentum again.

I'm not convinced they will be able to ship 20m at all. at this rate they will probably be much closer to something like 16m. Smash and Pokemon are releasing this year, but Mario Odyssey was released in the last holiday and it performed very strongly.

bane833 · Jul 31, 2018

sinonobu said:
Nintendo is also keeping their forecast of 20 million HW and 100 million SW sales for this FY.

Delusion your name is Nintendo.

Xaszatm · Jul 31, 2018

hussien-11 said:
It wasn't dumb at all. it sent the stock down heavily. sales picked up probably with many new releases like Fortnite/MarioTennis/Donkey Kong/Octopath and the system started to gain momentum again.

I'm not convinced they will be able to ship 20m at all. at this rate they will probably be much closer to something like 16m. Smash and Pokemon are releasing this year, but Mario Odyssey was released in the last holiday and it performed very strongly.

Hasn't it already been proven that the main reason why the stock fell was because of a certain investor trying to short-stock the market? And I still shake my head that we live in a world where people still doubt the power of pokemon.

Deleted member 2426 · Jul 31, 2018

I think we need more references to imply anything out of this statement,. You can be selling badly and then sell a little less badly and you'll still get a trend upwards. (I am not saying Switch is selling badly, but this statement tells us nothing about)

Deleted member 2793 · Jul 31, 2018

hussien-11 said:
It wasn't dumb at all. it sent the stock down heavily. sales picked up probably with many new releases like Fortnite/MarioTennis/Donkey Kong/Octopath and the system started to gain momentum again.

I'm not convinced they will be able to ship 20m at all. at this rate they will probably be much closer to something like 16m. Smash and Pokemon are releasing this year, but Mario Odyssey was released in the last holiday and it performed very strongly.

You think they will miss it by 4M even when Nintendo themselves said they see no need to change their forecast?

People really underestimate how big a Pokémon + Smash combo is.

UltraMagnus · Jul 31, 2018

Spring is generally a down time for sales, with June usually being higher than the spring months so that really isn't saying a lot IMO.

Herb Alpert · Jul 31, 2018

they could also have something up their sleeve, like an early March animal crossing release (to help about this 20M target I mean)

foxuzamaki · Jul 31, 2018

E3 really put the switch back in peoples minds, E3 helps so mcuh which is why games like daemonxmachina is gonna surprise alot of people in the same way octopath traveler did, people dont talk about these games online a whole bunch but they be in the public's eye

Xaszatm · Jul 31, 2018

foxuzamaki said:
E3 really put the switch back in peoples minds, E3 helps so mcuh which is why games like daemonxmachina is gonna surprise alot of people in the same way octopath traveler did, people dont talk about these games online a whole bunch but they be in the public's eye

But I thought according to this site, E3 was a failure because they didn't make games people here wanted to play.

/s

potentialtodisplease · Jul 31, 2018

Switch needs those three or so great games to keep momentum going. I think they will find those in the next year or so. And Nintendo should be planning a really nice successor that can live in the same family.

Simba1 · Jul 31, 2018

hussien-11 said:
It wasn't dumb at all. it sent the stock down heavily. sales picked up probably with many new releases like Fortnite/MarioTennis/Donkey Kong/Octopath and the system started to gain momentum again.

I'm not convinced they will be able to ship 20m at all. at this rate they will probably be much closer to something like 16m. Smash and Pokemon are releasing this year, but Mario Odyssey was released in the last holiday and it performed very strongly.

Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash will sell more Switch units in Q4 in October-December period than Odyssey and Xenoblade did last year, we probably talking around 10m vs around 7m.

phonicjoy · Jul 31, 2018

Xaszatm said:
But I thought according to this site, E3 was a failure because they didn't make games people here wanted to play.

/s

That doesn't contradict the point of exposure. The bulk of the mass market just sees more games info coming over all sorts of channels and is more likely to pick something up. I think you would see an upward trend for most of the manufacturers, expecially in such a short timespan.

TheMisterManGuy · Jul 31, 2018

foxuzamaki said:
E3 really put the switch back in peoples minds, E3 helps so mcuh which is why games like daemonxmachina is gonna surprise alot of people in the same way octopath traveler did, people dont talk about these games online a whole bunch but they be in the public's eye

This is why it pays to have a console that actually has solid third party support with little to no software droughts.

Rellik · Jul 31, 2018

Napalm_Frank said:
December is fall?

In some places it is (until the 21st at least).

DeuceGamer · Jul 31, 2018

Napalm_Frank said:
December is fall?

First day of winter is actually Dec 21st in the US. Seems strange in a way but it is technically Fall still.

Edit: oops, beaten :)

Deleted member 42484 · Jul 31, 2018

Is anyone surprised sales went up since e3? Hollow knight moved 250k and fortnight was downloaded 2 million times and both came out that day. Then Mario Tennis moves 1.4 million units in a week and it looks like Octopath is going to hit >1million this month.

Software moves hardware.

hussien-11 · Jul 31, 2018

Heartskips said:
You think they will miss it by 4M even when Nintendo themselves said they see no need to change their forecast?

People really underestimate how big a Pokémon + Smash combo is.

Xaszatm said:
Hasn't it already been proven that the main reason why the stock fell was because of a certain investor trying to short-stock the market? And I still shake my head that we live in a world where people still doubt the power of pokemon.

They missed every prediction they made for 3DS almost every year after its release. they overestimate themselves sometimes.
20m is a very big number, PS4 barely hit that at its prime even while selling better in almost every region in the world.
Q1+Q2 will be around 4.5-5.0m shipped, which means they need to sell ~15m device in Q3 and Q4 alone!
they shipped 7+ million in the last holidays, how much more can they ship the upcoming holiday? especially with the late release date of Smash into Q3?

Simba1 said:
Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash will sell more Switch units in Q4 in October-December period than Odyssey and Xenoblade did last year, we probably talking around 10m vs around 7m.

even if they managed to ship 10m device in Q3 (which is a very hard task), they will still miss their target at this rate.

andymoogle · Jul 31, 2018

I don't understand why some analysts thought their E3 was weak, and expected sales to slow down. Smash and Pokémon are guaranteed to be massive hits. Nintendo really won't need more than those two this year.

Pablo Mesa · Jul 31, 2018

hussien-11 said:
even if they managed to ship 10m device in Q3 (which is a very hard task), they will still miss their target at this rate.

thye carried teh last 6 months of the past FY in the back of MArio O alone, this year they have Mario Party, Pokemon, Smash, Fire Emblem, Yoshi, Q3 and Q4 are likely gonna be YoY+ from last year nad will be the driving force for the 20M miracle

Spine Crawler · Jul 31, 2018

Nintendo had paladins, hollow knight and fortnite all on e3 and octopath a few weeks later. No wonder there is an upward trend

Spine Crawler · Jul 31, 2018

andymoogle said:
I don't understand why some analysts thought their E3 was weak, and expected sales to slow down. Smash and Pokémon are guaranteed to be massive hits. Nintendo really won't need more than those two this year.

The showing was weak but the games they had immediately were strong

Simba1 · Jul 31, 2018

hussien-11 said:
They missed every prediction they made for 3DS almost every year after its release. they overestimate themselves sometimes.
20m is a very big number, PS4 barely hit that at its prime even while selling better in almost every region in the world.
Q1+Q2 will be around 4.5-5.0m shipped, which means they need to sell ~15m device in Q3 and Q4 alone!
they shipped 7+ million in the last holidays, how much more can they ship the upcoming holiday? especially with the late release date of Smash into Q3?

even if they managed to ship 10m device in Q3 (which is a very hard task), they will still miss their target at this rate.

Yeah but they didnt missed any target with Switch yet.

With Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash, 10m+ dont look like hard task, Nintendo generally have very strong Holiday periods in any case and now have two huge games.
This only 1st quarter thats usually weakest and where Switch have quite slow April and May in terms of releases, from June lineup is quite stonger.

Mbolibombo · Jul 31, 2018

Strong software output ever since, certainly helps.

Also while the 20M hw target is up in air, the 100M sw target will easily be achieved.

TwoDelay · Jul 31, 2018

F O R T N I T E

Nathan.exe · Jul 31, 2018

N-nani ?

Dr. Mario · Jul 31, 2018

Up since FYQ1 or up YOY?

Mory Dunz · Jul 31, 2018

Spine Crawler said:
The showing was weak but the games they had immediately were strong

yeah, there seems to be differing branching narratives about their "e3". Sales, investors, doomed, whatever.

For me, their E3...kinda stunk, cause 2 games were 2018, and now they're not 2018. One of those 2018 games doesn't even have a release window.
And only one 1st party game was announced to "replace" the two in Super Mario Party.

that's basically it for me. more was "taken" so to say than added. So it's a poor E3. That's kinda it.

Pablo Mesa · Jul 31, 2018

andymoogle said:
I don't understand why some analysts thought their E3 was weak, and expected sales to slow down. Smash and Pokémon are guaranteed to be massive hits. Nintendo really won't need more than those two this year.

likely hot takes trying to figure out the stocks drops at the time

Pokémon · Jul 31, 2018

Funny to see people underestimating Smash and Pokémon for no real reason.

Spine Crawler · Jul 31, 2018

Mory Dunz said:
yeah, there seems to be differing branching narratives about their "e3". Sales, investors, doomed, whatever.

For me, their E3...kinda stunk, cause 2 games were 2018, and now they're not 2018. One of those 2018 games doesn't even have a release window.
And only one 1st party game was announced to "replace" the two in Super Mario Party.

that's basically it for me. more was "taken" so to say than added. So it's a poor E3. That's kinda it.

For anyone that wanted to see the games on the horizon it was bleh. It did help that they had three games lined up for immediate release though. Fortnite is great on it, hollow knight is an absolute blast and paladins also runs great and is a fun game.

Also it helps to know that nintendo has at least one direct lined up to discuss their fall lineup in mpre detail. Im expecting some surprises there (also out of nowhere announcements like labo 3)

Mory Dunz · Jul 31, 2018

Spine Crawler said:
For anyone that wanted to see the games on the horizon it was bleh. It did help that they had three games lined up for immediate release though. Fortnite is great on it, hollow knight is an absolute blast and paladins also runs great and is a fun game.

Also it helps to know that nintendo has at least one direct lined up to discuss their fall lineup in mpre detail. Im expecting some surprises there (also out of nowhere announcements like labo 3)

I could maybe see NSMB since it was rumored.
and 1-2 third party ports a la la noire and doom.

I'm more curious about Q1 2019.
Part of me doesn't think FE will make it. So I wonder what they'll have.
Whatever the big Q1 games are, they have to be announced in this direct to get a regular marketing schedule. (unless it's somehow an old game like Bayo3 or metroid or Yoshi).

Maxina · Jul 31, 2018

Software sells hardware. The 5% decrease last quarter is the result of Nintendos weak lineup for that period. This quarter and the next will definitely show just how wrong resetera (formally neogaf), is when it comes to predicting the success or failure of a console.

Falchion · Jul 31, 2018

Pokemon will be giving this a huge boost.

Ehoavash · Jul 31, 2018

Fortnite saving the switch

henhowc · Jul 31, 2018

stock went up :D

Nintendo Switch HW sales trend upwards in every region since E3

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