Stock Market Era |OT3| Nobody expects the Spanish Inflation!

[MrBob]

Oof if this is true:



Time to cancel return to the office.

If commodity prices stay elevated, not normally great for the global economy. We can handle some temporary elevation. Just don't want this elevation to stay for a prolonged period. I'm starting to wonder if this is what the stock market is worried about right now: That these commodity prices are going to stay elevated for awhile. Since higher commodity prices have a direct impact on how much people can spend for leisure and goods.

Otherwise we need some great economic growth to offset these commodity prices staying elevated. I believe Q4 2022 GDP expectations were dropped down to 2.5%. so hopefully these commodity prices come back in.

 

[Shadout]

I dunno, looks pretty red here :(

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US has ruined things a bit, again, but I am basically flat now. German market is up 0.6%. Considering how US ended yesterday, that is something :D

Question for our European friends here. Is recession actually on the table?
Because market participants are dropping European indexes fast. If these indexes can't get any footing, it's a signal market participants think recession is incoming.

It's hard to get a read on this from USA media.

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I think it very much depends on the country. This is especially hurting Germany with their heavy dependency on Russian energy. Of course, what hurts Germany hurts Europe.
My home market seems to be up a few % since the invasion started though, so it isn't hitting everyone equally.

If Germany is going to borrow money to do all the stuff they claim they want to do currently, to reduce dependency on Russia, and boost their military, seems like that should generate growth.

Maybe Putin has managed to do what decades of German politicians have failed at.

Inflation on the other hand… presumably that will explode?

 

[Piston]

At least I still have XOM stock.

Probably good time in general to be in energy stocks. It's probably my most exposed market between PLUG, XOM, ENPH, and ICLN.

 

[less]

Yet another start to a less than good day. Sigh.

 

[MrBob]

Shadout Thanks for the input. It's tough to get a read on what is actually happening at times with our media.

QQQ is now in a very deep retracement of that reversal green candle. Better hold:

Since the start of 2022, hasn't even been able to hold above the 20 day moving average more than 24 hours. That would be a start, getting back above and holding longer than a day.

 

[SolarPowered]

Limit orders on Microsoft and Nvidia just kicked in. I was feeling pretty good about myself until I see this recession talk lol. I suppose I'm still in a good spot since I plan to hold this stuff for years at a minimum and I feel preeeeeeeeeetty confident about Google (which I need to deposit money in the bank for), Apple, Disney and Nvidia's long term prospects and I'm not exactly buying them at peak prices. AMD shares are on the verge of tipping into buying territory, too.

 

[Deleted member 70788]

ENPH and CSIQ doing the heavy lifting in my account lately.

 

[GlamPrime]

GEVO is flying. 20.3% Up and I can't figure out why.

Not that I'm complaining of course.

 

[Scarecrow]

So, housing prices crazy, car prices crazy, cost of goods up, gas back to 2008 levels.

If we're heading back to another crash, what's the play regarding stocks and such? My totals dropped about 20k in the last month or so. I don't plan on selling anytime soon.
How's investing in crypto these days?

 

[lt519]

Limit orders on Microsoft and Nvidia just kicked in. I was feeling pretty good about myself until I see this recession talk lol. I suppose I'm still in a good spot since I plan to hold this stuff for years at a minimum and I feel preeeeeeeeeetty confident about Google (which I need to deposit money in the bank for), Apple, Disney and Nvidia's long term prospects and I'm not exactly buying them at peak prices. AMD shares are on the verge of tipping into buying territory, too.

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By the time you realize you are in a recession/bear market it's better to continue to hold then to try and time the bottom. This is a good time to buy for long-term prospects, especially companies like Google, Apple, Disney, Nvidia where they are cash flow positive and have core competencies rooted in the everyday fabric of life.

 

[Sibersk Esto]

Yeah I'll just stick to my index funds for the foreseeable future, although I'm not sure if I should continue to be as diversified as I am now.

Right now I have positions in a total market, total bond, international funds, along with small, mid cap and growth index funds.

 

[MrBob]

Limit orders on Microsoft and Nvidia just kicked in. I was feeling pretty good about myself until I see this recession talk lol. I suppose I'm still in a good spot since I plan to hold this stuff for years at a minimum and I feel preeeeeeeeeetty confident about Google (which I need to deposit money in the bank for), Apple, Disney and Nvidia's long term prospects and I'm not exactly buying them at peak prices. AMD shares are on the verge of tipping into buying territory, too.

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In these big dislocation moments, the best plan is to actually try to scale into these stocks.

The only thing I would add though is just because a stock is off big from it's high, doesn't mean it's close to a low. Some of these stocks went absolutely parabolic (even the "safer" ones), so there might be some extra froth that needs to come off first.

For example, Nvidia has tried to triple bottom on the monthly chart around 206-208, after putting in a parabolic blow off top. It has dropped 40% from the high, and still above the 20 month moving average just over 10%:

Amazing company, but in my mind this triple bottom level better hold. Especailly since it's just under an all time 38.2% Fib retracement level. So you want to see it try to make a stand here. Otherwise might be a quick move to 190-195, and see where we go from there. As in, can it bounce at this level, get back above that triple bottom area and hold.

Edit: There is nothing we can really do if we enter a recession. It's going to happen in our lifetimes, multiple times. Just that the market will usually signal this first, before you see talk of it anywhere else. By the time we enter the recession the market will likely be in the process of bottoming. Unless the market thinks it is a prolonged recession.

 

[Sibersk Esto]

Lines going up in the wake of Biden's announcement

 

[Lunchbox-]

recession lasted 3 hours

back to the moon 🚀

 

[MrBob]

recession lasted 3 hours

back to the moon 🚀

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😂

 

[GlamPrime]

Lines going up in the wake of Biden's announcement

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recession lasted 3 hours

back to the moon 🚀

Click to shrink...

I was trying to find some announcement, new contracts, orders etc as to why Green Energy was so buoyant today. It appears that Biden, Borris, and Zelenski speech to the UK government which concluded a few minutes ago is doing the heavy lifting.

Russia / Putin is making nation after nation, especially here in the Europe, realize and admit that Greta Thunberg was right all along. It's a shame that it took a bloody war for them to see sense.

 

[Sheepinator]

Oil is coming off the highs, but it's still way too high. Hopefully that Iran deal is pending, and should help deflate it. There may also be a chance of ceasefire/compromise in Ukraine, we'll see. I doubt we'll see sustained rallies until those things happen.

I got in RBLX under $40 today.

GlamPrime Green's strength last two days has been the pending EU plan to replace their heavy reliance on Russian energy with other sources.

 

[Lunchbox-]

cnbc is saying ukraine agreed to not pursue NATO membership but sources are vague 🤷‍♂️

 

[Sheepinator]

From the movie I Am Legend. Apparently some parts of CA are already at these levels.

 

[maigret]

From the movie I Am Legend. Apparently some parts of CA are already at these levels.

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Just in time for the new movie.

 

[Sheepinator]

Just in time for the new movie.

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Interesting. I did not know a sequel was planned. I just looked it up and see some articles about it.

 

[RoKKeR]

This market is hilarious. I have kinda been sitting on the sidelines since the beginning of the year. Don't know what to think of it.

 

[MrBob]

This market is hilarious. I have kinda been sitting on the sidelines since the beginning of the year. Don't know what to think of it.

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Market digesting historic gains, coming off a super elevated level. Everyone is so used to a V shaped recovery, that the latest dip feels more painful since this recovery hasn't been as fast. Even though the dip hasn't been as deep. At least this is the case for the indexes.

On the other hand, individual stocks are a rodeo in 2022. I look at some of these charts of individual stocks, and amazed how much they are moving around. So many are moving like shitco company charts.

This is the main reason I've been more of proponent this year of picking certain price levels and scaling in slowly. The intraday and multi day moves have been intense in both directions.

 

[Greenpaint]

Question for our European friends here. Is recession actually on the table?
Because market participants are dropping European indexes fast. If these indexes can't get any footing, it's a signal market participants think recession is incoming.

It's hard to get a read on this from USA media.

Click to shrink...

Economists have been predicting a nice post-COVID (lol is there such a thing) recovery for next couple of years. I imagine at worst we'll get less growth.

On other hand, this was released today:

Brussels plans ‘potentially massive’ fundraising for energy and defence in step towards united Europe

European Commission mulling joint bonds to pay for loans to member states

www.telegraph.co.uk

Breakingviews - EU charts expensive path towards energy freedom

The European Union is ready to kick its Russian gas habit . The European Commission has a plan to replace over 70% of Russian gas imports this year by ramping up liquefied natural gas purchases, green energy and gas storage. But energy freedom will likely come at a cost.

www.reuters.com

A LOT of new spending incoming.

 

[Captain Smoker]

lol @today, everything starts red, rallies into green and falls again.

That said, ICLN +7% (like in the good old days ;__;)

 

[Lunchbox-]

recession back

back to the gutter

 

[MrBob]

Greenpaint Thank you for the info and links.

Two percent plus intraday swings on indexes is definitely normal market structure.

 

[Deleted member 70788]

lol ENPH at 10% for the day and CSIQ at 13%. That's after some massive gains earlier this week and last.

 

[zulux21]

That said, ICLN +7% (like in the good old days ;__;)

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yeah I really should've doubled down when it was around $17 and then I could sell that stuff today to be a little closer to breaking even on ICLN on my 32 a share stuff :P

Instead I've been putting what money I can spare into T lol.
We will see how stupid of an idea that is in a year or two :P

 

[Mr. Snuffleupagus]

So! I've finally been sent a Trading212 invite after the Gamestop nonsense has finally calmed down. Do people recommend the app or not at all?

 

[Sheepinator]

MrBob

NVidia investor day announced today.

Tuesday, March 22, 2022, at 10 a.m. Pacific Time

 

[MrBob]

2022 market hard for everyone.



Gerstner needs more paid CNBC appearances now.

MrBob

NVidia investor day announced today.

Tuesday, March 22, 2022, at 10 a.m. Pacific Time

Click to shrink...

Very nice. Time for me to get my salt machine going for when I can't find a 40 series card.

 

[SolarPowered]

So, housing prices crazy, car prices crazy, cost of goods up, gas back to 2008 levels.

If we're heading back to another crash, what's the play regarding stocks and such? My totals dropped about 20k in the last month or so. I don't plan on selling anytime soon.
How's investing in crypto these days?

Click to shrink...

IIRC there is a crypto general on Era.

By the time you realize you are in a recession/bear market it's better to continue to hold then to try and time the bottom. This is a good time to buy for long-term prospects, especially companies like Google, Apple, Disney, Nvidia where they are cash flow positive and have core competencies rooted in the everyday fabric of life.

Click to shrink...

Yeah, that's pretty much how I've been feeling about investing lately. Just gonna buy and hold for the long term. I'd rather buy some large dips multiple times than miss out on a good buying opportunity while waiting for that mythical 50% drop.

Yeah I'll just stick to my index funds for the foreseeable future, although I'm not sure if I should continue to be as diversified as I am now.

Right now I have positions in a total market, total bond, international funds, along with small, mid cap and growth index funds.

Click to shrink...

It's a moderate and less stressful road. Hard to beat as far as I'm concerned.

In these big dislocation moments, the best plan is to actually try to scale into these stocks.

The only thing I would add though is just because a stock is off big from it's high, doesn't mean it's close to a low. Some of these stocks went absolutely parabolic (even the "safer" ones), so there might be some extra froth that needs to come off first.

For example, Nvidia has tried to triple bottom on the monthly chart around 206-208, after putting in a parabolic blow off top. It has dropped 40% from the high, and still above the 20 month moving average just over 10%:

Amazing company, but in my mind this triple bottom level better hold. Especailly since it's just under an all time 38.2% Fib retracement level. So you want to see it try to make a stand here. Otherwise might be a quick move to 190-195, and see where we go from there. As in, can it bounce at this level, get back above that triple bottom area and hold.

Edit: There is nothing we can really do if we enter a recession. It's going to happen in our lifetimes, multiple times. Just that the market will usually signal this first, before you see talk of it anywhere else. By the time we enter the recession the market will likely be in the process of bottoming. Unless the market thinks it is a prolonged recession.

Click to shrink...

Nvidia has definitely been kinda skittish in this regard. It wouldn't surprise me if they dropped more, so I'm only in partway in hopes of a bit more of a slide down. Moving on to the recession... buying a 15% and 25% drop will probably be more than enough, especially three or four times over the course of our lifetimes. I doubt we're in for a full on 2008 crash anytime soon.

recession lasted 3 hours

back to the moon 🚀

Click to shrink...

All praise Lisa Su

recession back

back to the gutter

Click to shrink...

Back into the gutter AMD goes

I was trying to find some announcement, new contracts, orders etc as to why Green Energy was so buoyant today. It appears that Biden, Borris, and Zelenski speech to the UK government which concluded a few minutes ago is doing the heavy lifting.

Russia / Putin is making nation after nation, especially here in the Europe, realize and admit that Greta Thunberg was right all along. It's a shame that it took a bloody war for them to see sense.

Click to shrink...

IIRC I made a YT comment (maybe on a DW video?) saying as much. In her world the west wouldn't be so beholden to Russia and Saudi Arabian oil/gas. Instead we kept letting fossil fuels direct our foreign policy/economy and now we're up shit creek without a paddle. Iran and Venezuela are gonna be looking to EAT TONIGHT lol.

MrBob

NVidia investor day announced today.

Tuesday, March 22, 2022, at 10 a.m. Pacific Time

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Our wallets will weep and Con Ed will cheer. The Earth will not be ready for the incoming gpu wattage increases.

 

[Sheepinator]

It's so easy when you have a following. Take position, announce position, watch profits come in, move on.

Ryan Cohen Scores $656 Million For Himself By Doing Nothing

Ryan Cohen has yet to make any material difference to GameStop. But he's making a giant improvement to his own portfolio.

www.investors.com

 

[less]

It's so easy when you have a following. Take position, announce position, watch profits come in, move on.

Ryan Cohen Scores $656 Million For Himself By Doing Nothing

Ryan Cohen has yet to make any material difference to GameStop. But he's making a giant improvement to his own portfolio.

www.investors.com

Click to shrink...

So absurdly easy. Sigh.

 

[chuckddd]

Dat bounce

 

[Sheepinator]

Was Buffett another one who got the info?

 

[MrBob]

.

Nvidia has definitely been kinda skittish in this regard. It wouldn't surprise me if they dropped more, so I'm only in partway in hopes of a bit more of a slide down. Moving on to the recession... buying a 15% and 25% drop will probably be more than enough, especially three or four times over the course of our lifetimes. I doubt we're in for a full on 2008 crash anytime soon.

Click to shrink...

Yeah I'm not on team crash either yet. Not unless the SPY gets under 390-395, and has trouble getting back over that level. Side note though: The 40-50-60-70 percent plus drops the past three to six months are definitely not mythical haha. Underneath the indexes, and a handful of stocks, a bear market has been all over the place the past year.

Definitely worth actively watching individual stocks. Because the individual stocks normally have more positive upward momentum versus the indexes on a turn.

It's so easy when you have a following. Take position, announce position, watch profits come in, move on.

Ryan Cohen Scores $656 Million For Himself By Doing Nothing

Ryan Cohen has yet to make any material difference to GameStop. But he's making a giant improvement to his own portfolio.

www.investors.com

Click to shrink...

Getting Chamath tier grifting vibes from Ryan Cohen. You also know no one is touching Buffet. 🤣

 

[Mathieran]

Today is nice but I'm not gonna get excited until we start seeing some sort of upward trend again

 

[TheSkullPrince]

Dow is up 800 points and oil dropped 13%? Lol what

 

[Deleted member 5876]

Was Buffett another one who got the info?

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If their links are to Kotick why are they not also investigating him for giving them that insider knowledge?
Basically I want to see Kotick in jail. But that probably isn't likely.

 

[Sheepinator]

If their links are to Kotick why are they not also investigating him for giving them that insider knowledge?
Basically I want to see Kotick in jail. But that probably isn't likely.

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They'd first have to prove there was a tip. Absent that proof, they can easily claim they were just lucky. After all, the stock was going down for PR reasons, not earnings reasons. Then, they'd have to prove Kotick would benefit from the tipping, which I've always thought is a ridiculous bar to meet, but that's the rule.

 

[Deleted member 5876]

They'd first have to prove there was a tip. Absent that proof, they can easily claim they were just lucky. After all, the stock was going down for PR reasons, not earnings reasons. Then, they'd have to prove Kotick would benefit from the tipping, which I've always thought is a ridiculous bar to meet, but that's the rule.

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The sad thing is I read this headline and I am absolutely certain Kotick tipped them off.

 

[MrBob]

Weekly VXUS chart. This is about 80% international developed countries and 20% emerging markets. Gap defense force came out to play again:

200 week moving average in this spot too. Double combo, increases the chances for a bounce. Now it needs to try and sustain a move back higher. Preferably getting back over 60-ish and holding above. Overall though would be best for this weekly low to hold. Otherwise the March 2020 likely to get retested.

Edit:. We have inflation numbers tomorrow too.

 

[GlamPrime]

IIRC I made a YT comment (maybe on a DW video?) saying as much. In her world the west wouldn't be so beholden to Russia and Saudi Arabian oil/gas. Instead we kept letting fossil fuels direct our foreign policy/economy and now we're up shit creek without a paddle. Iran and Venezuela are gonna be looking to EAT TONIGHT lol.

Click to shrink...

Oil remains inextricably linked to the economy through businesses paying politicians to get their way the lobbying system. Here in the UK "political donations from oil companies runs deeper than most want to pay attention to.

I didn't realize how bad it was in the states until I saw a republican senator apologise to an oil exec for how the US government had treated them after the oil spill in 2010.

Was Buffett another one who got the info?

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If this deal fails I'll open my first ever short trade.

But I'm wondering how bad this development really is.

 

[Sheepinator]

If this deal fails I'll open my first ever short trade.

But I'm wondering how bad this development really is.

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It's irrelevant, and the deal will go through.

 

[Marz]

So big daddy Buffet is dirty?

 

[Deleted member 5876]

So big daddy Buffet is dirty?

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You don't get that rich without wading through some shit. I don't care who you are.

 

[MrBob]

🤣

Executives definitely have a team watching their stock. Pumping news always seems to come out when:

1) Stock is trying to break out but can't
2) Stock is teetering on the verge of breakdown

 

[2pac_71]

🤣

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I was just going to post this. Crazy that it up almost 10%.