AMD weekly chart currently wedged between base breakout and long term channel uptrend.
Semiconductors definitely do have a cyclical nature to them.
Semiconductors definitely do have a cyclical nature to them.
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Stock Market Era |OT3| Nobody expects the Spanish Inflation!
- Thread starter Sheepinator
- Start date
- OT
This random ETF SUBZ liquidated their shares the other day :'(
my first official loss, holding bags on everything else
my first official loss, holding bags on everything else
Looks like tech hasn't budged since yesterday. Was expecting Nvidia, Google, MS and AMD to drop just a few more percentage points.
MBS holds our collective balls and shaft in his iron grip. We needed to be off oil twenty years ago.
I see China issued new video game approvals today for the first time in 9ish months. They used to approve around 90 or so games a month but this current batch the number is down to 45. Not exactly the best signal for new releases in the region going forward. With this change feeling like it's due to economic issues and the mass amount of studio closures in the last few months. Then it is with the government feeling like they have a handle on it.
Apple is an absolute unit of a rock. Everyone else slipping and they're holding steady. They really might be propping up the economy lol.
Yeah...this is entirely about economic issues. I imagine that once the situation in China becomes more stable we will see a tightening of the screws once again.
Yea I'm not convinced like some analysts I read that this is the end of it all. Feels much more like a stop gap olive branch then a sign it's over. Still could take another 2-3 years before it starts again.
OP
OP
Elon to buy Twitter
www.bloomberg.com
Elon Musk Makes $43 Billion Unsolicited Bid to Take Twitter Private
Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk offered to take Twitter Inc. private in a deal valued at $43 billion, lambasting company management and saying he’s the person who can unlock the “extraordinary potential” of a communication platform used daily by more than 200 million people.
www.bloomberg.com
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Elon to buy Twitter
Elon Musk Makes $43 Billion Unsolicited Bid to Take Twitter Private
Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk offered to take Twitter Inc. private in a deal valued at $43 billion, lambasting company management and saying he’s the person who can unlock the “extraordinary potential” of a communication platform used daily by more than 200 million people.
Honestly if TWTR dips under $50 at the open I think I'll buy some shares for a (hopefully) quick day trade and profit. My hunch is TWTR climbs pretty good today on this news.
Elon to buy Twitter
Elon Musk Makes $43 Billion Unsolicited Bid to Take Twitter Private
Billionaire entrepreneur Elon Musk offered to take Twitter Inc. private in a deal valued at $43 billion, lambasting company management and saying he’s the person who can unlock the “extraordinary potential” of a communication platform used daily by more than 200 million people.
Pretty expensive way to pump dogecoin!
OP
OP
I wouldn't go near TWTR. Based on an informal proposal from a troll with a very long history of pump and dumps, including when he lied about "funding secured" for his own company, it's currently about t0% below the proposed buyout price. And it's worth nowhere near this price without the buyout offer. Musk even sets up his latest pump and dump in the letter, threatening to dump all his shares if they don't accept his one and only offer.
Meanwhile, ATVI is three months into a formal acquisition process which is very likely to succeed, by a very serious company, and it's 17% below the buyout price. And it's arguably worth at least the current price without a buyout offer anyway.
Meanwhile, ATVI is three months into a formal acquisition process which is very likely to succeed, by a very serious company, and it's 17% below the buyout price. And it's arguably worth at least the current price without a buyout offer anyway.
OP
OP
TSM crushed estimates and forecast above analyst estimates too.
The company, better known as TSMC, earned $1.40 per U.S. share on sales of $17.57 billion in the March quarter. Analysts had expected TSMC to earn $1.27 a share on sales of $16.74 billion, according to FactSet. In the year-earlier period, TSMC earned 95 cents a share on sales of $12.77 billion.
For the second quarter, TSMC forecast revenue of $17.6 billion to $18.2 billion. The midpoint of $17.9 billion tops Wall Street's consensus estimate of $17.33 billion.
Taiwan Semi predicted a gross profit margin of 56% to 58% in the June quarter. That's up from 55.6% in the March quarter.
www.investors.com
The company, better known as TSMC, earned $1.40 per U.S. share on sales of $17.57 billion in the March quarter. Analysts had expected TSMC to earn $1.27 a share on sales of $16.74 billion, according to FactSet. In the year-earlier period, TSMC earned 95 cents a share on sales of $12.77 billion.
For the second quarter, TSMC forecast revenue of $17.6 billion to $18.2 billion. The midpoint of $17.9 billion tops Wall Street's consensus estimate of $17.33 billion.
Taiwan Semi predicted a gross profit margin of 56% to 58% in the June quarter. That's up from 55.6% in the March quarter.
Taiwan Semiconductor Crushes First-Quarter Targets, Guides Higher
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world's top chip foundry, on Thursday smashed expectations for the first quarter. TSM stock wavered.
www.investors.com
OP
OP
I'm old enough to remember a few months ago when Musk was against the wealth tax proposed by some Dems, because his money is all tied up or something. He can find $43BN cash for this though.
I've read rumors that Musk could be sourcing the money from private equity or some other private entities. So it is possible the money to buy Twitter won't be Musk's money at all?
When he inevitably dumps his shares because they won't agree to his buyout offer I hope the SEC slaps him with a multi million dollar fine for being a jackass.
OP
OP
He already broke rules with Twitter. Not that rules apply to him...
www.npr.org
Elon Musk saved $143 million by reporting Twitter stake late, shareholder suit claims
The lawsuit claims Musk waited 11 days to disclose his stake in the company, alleging that the delay saved the billionaire money and cost shareholders. The suit argues Musk violated securities law.
www.npr.org
Elon Musk pump and dump again. He doesn't want to buy Twitter. He is using this as cover as reason to offload shares.
Tagged the 20 day moving average on open, instant sell off. Fascinating. Now the gap up window from april 13 trying to hold.
TSM crushed estimates and forecast above analyst estimates too.
The company, better known as TSMC, earned $1.40 per U.S. share on sales of $17.57 billion in the March quarter. Analysts had expected TSMC to earn $1.27 a share on sales of $16.74 billion, according to FactSet. In the year-earlier period, TSMC earned 95 cents a share on sales of $12.77 billion.
For the second quarter, TSMC forecast revenue of $17.6 billion to $18.2 billion. The midpoint of $17.9 billion tops Wall Street's consensus estimate of $17.33 billion.
Taiwan Semi predicted a gross profit margin of 56% to 58% in the June quarter. That's up from 55.6% in the March quarter.
Taiwan Semiconductor Crushes First-Quarter Targets, Guides Higher
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing, the world's top chip foundry, on Thursday smashed expectations for the first quarter. TSM stock wavered.
Tagged the 20 day moving average on open, instant sell off. Fascinating. Now the gap up window from april 13 trying to hold.
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Starlight sent them to the moon.While a lot of things are dying, Coca Cola stock keeps zooming upward after holding at the 2021 double top high.
I'm laughing at this chart because the 9 day EMA can't even keep up right now. I would say this is pretty extended now haha.
Hahaha, forgot about that.
SPY and QQQ were both close to max pain on close. Going about as low as one can go without breaking down further. Might be lucky that the clock struck zero.
Hopefully this isn't future for the next couple weeks: gap down, sideways chop, gap down, sideways chop, rinse and repeat:
This will be painful in terms of time correction. But I guess this is better than falling off the cliff completely. Which could still happen if bigger institutions start panicking. This sell off still seems a little orderly to me.
370 region looks like some pretty hardcore resistance right now too.
SPY and QQQ were both close to max pain on close. Going about as low as one can go without breaking down further. Might be lucky that the clock struck zero.
Hopefully this isn't future for the next couple weeks: gap down, sideways chop, gap down, sideways chop, rinse and repeat:
This will be painful in terms of time correction. But I guess this is better than falling off the cliff completely. Which could still happen if bigger institutions start panicking. This sell off still seems a little orderly to me.
370 region looks like some pretty hardcore resistance right now too.
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Got a couple of Google shares and that was one expensive purchase. Never in my life would I have ever thought of spending as much money on anything else as I have on stocks/etfs as of late. I've never even bought a pc worth more than $1500 and PC gaming is THE hobby for me. The color red has been good to me so far. Just gotta hope the red doesn't intensify too much. Still hoping Nvidia and MS drop a bit further, though. Now AMD is also sitting there are pretty like at sub $95.
I need more money. Anybody want some plasma?
I need more money. Anybody want some plasma?
I did not like that AMD close today. AMD spiked the 100 week moving average by about 25 cents yesterday and had a nice bounce. Then it gave back this bounce and then some, closing below the 100 week moving average today.
Zooming into the 15 minute AMD chart I could tell my levels were on point from that weekly AMD chart I posted on the top of this page:
Initially bounced at the top of the base. Then found resistance at the rising pivot. Sold off and rallied next from a bounce off the 100 week moving average. Then gave up the top of the base again and just faded into close today.
Now it will be important for AMD to recapture above the 100 week moving average on weekly close, as soon as possible. Definitely needs get back over roughly 95-97 range on a short term basis now in an attempt to hold on a longer term basis. Otherwise might be looking at 85-89 range. Though closing at 93 today makes it not too far in either direction.
Edit: I should say the commentary above is looking at it for a trade. Long term who knows. As long as the company stays strong (Maybe they gain marketshare from Nvidia with Navi 33?), I would guess this dip is a longer term buying opportunity. But nothing is guaranteed.
Zooming into the 15 minute AMD chart I could tell my levels were on point from that weekly AMD chart I posted on the top of this page:
Initially bounced at the top of the base. Then found resistance at the rising pivot. Sold off and rallied next from a bounce off the 100 week moving average. Then gave up the top of the base again and just faded into close today.
Now it will be important for AMD to recapture above the 100 week moving average on weekly close, as soon as possible. Definitely needs get back over roughly 95-97 range on a short term basis now in an attempt to hold on a longer term basis. Otherwise might be looking at 85-89 range. Though closing at 93 today makes it not too far in either direction.
Edit: I should say the commentary above is looking at it for a trade. Long term who knows. As long as the company stays strong (Maybe they gain marketshare from Nvidia with Navi 33?), I would guess this dip is a longer term buying opportunity. But nothing is guaranteed.
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ARK Invest released their new price predictions for TSLA in 2026, they've gone up:
Bear Case: $2885
Base Case: $4641
Bull Case: $5784
ARK has been very accurate with respect to Tesla's valuation over the years so far, in fact they've usually been a bit too conservative surprisingly enough. My hunch is the bear case is the most likely outcome, but that would still be a fantastic five year return. If it gets anywhere near the base or bull case by 2026 then Holy Shit.
Bear Case: $2885
Base Case: $4641
Bull Case: $5784
ARK has been very accurate with respect to Tesla's valuation over the years so far, in fact they've usually been a bit too conservative surprisingly enough. My hunch is the bear case is the most likely outcome, but that would still be a fantastic five year return. If it gets anywhere near the base or bull case by 2026 then Holy Shit.
Yeah wow, that base # is pretty insane. Even the bear at $3,000 is a bit eye popping.
Looking at ARK's numbers they give a lot of valuation to robotaxi's in 2026, too much IMHO. Personally I'm not counting on anything from robotaxi's until they exist and are an actual thing. However, ARK also seems to be forecasting too low a revenue number for the pure car business, many analyst projections I've seen forecast more than ARK is purely on the auto business five years out.
I think a valuation right around ARK's bear case is a good bet. If robotaxi's do happen that soon then they'll just be icing on the cake.
Only way this isn't a crackpot # is if they are assuming the EV part of BBB passes somehow.
.69420% chance that happens
.69420% chance that happens
I hear this response a lot, people can't believe the stock value could be worth THAT much by 2026, but surprisingly the financial math checks out as long as Tesla continues to grow along expected trends.
ARK's bear case is ~$2900 for 2026. Tesla expects to grow production & deliveries of their cars by at least 50% per year, which they have been consistently meeting or even exceeding. That gives us these car delivery numbers:
2021: 936,223 (actual deliveries)
2022: 1,404,334 (50% projected growth)
2023: 2,106,502
2024: 3,159,753
2025: 4,739,629
2026: 7,109,443
So let's just say 7,000,000 cars delivered in 2026. The current four factories combined can almost do that now once they all fully ramp up, but Tesla will have even more factories by 2026. At a very modest 14.75% profit margin (it will be higher than this by 2026) and an average vehicle price of $46,500 (which is quite a bit lower than it is today), PLUS energy sales growing along a linear projection (energy sales will be more exponential because they have been, but lets be conservative), that would equal revenues of about $475 billion for 2026. NOTE this does not equal anything for robotaxis, nor the robot, nor anything else that might come along the way. Just cars and very modest energy sales.
We then get the following share prices for TSLA given a few different possible PE Ratios for 2026:
PE of 150: $9,297
PE of 120: $7,438
PE of 100: $6,198
PE of 80: $4,958
PE of 65: $4,029
PE of 50: $3,099
PE of 35: $2,169
PE of 25: $1,550
So it all comes down to what PE Ratio you think the market will give Tesla in 2026 and whether or not you think they'll hit their targets, which they historically have done. For a company of that size growing at that rate, a PE between 50 to 100 isn't uncommon at all. Tesla's current PE is ~200 but I do expect that to fall over the next few years as the company grows in size, just like it did for Amazon, Google, and Apple as they ran up their S-curves of growth.
So, mathematically, the large numbers aren't as crazy as they initially seem to be. The math actually checks out.
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Apple already represents 20% of my portfolio but fuck it I'm just gonna keep buying
www.resetera.com
Report: NFL Sunday Ticket ‘Apple’s to lose,’ deal could already be done behind the scenes
https://9to5mac.com/2022/04/18/nfl-sunday-ticket-apple-tv-plus-report/ Huge if this turns out to be true. Their MLB streaming could use some work, but I’ve been satisfied with the quality.
www.resetera.com
Just anecdotal, but it feels like other car companies are now catching up to where Tesla was 3-5 years ago. This weekend I saw a couple Mustang EVs, a Kia EV6, and two of the new Ioniq 5s. Is there any chance Tsla can keep up the current level of sales with much more competition?
I think popular non-Tesla EVs are still in limited supply and not available in every state. I don't think Kia even sells EVs here in Minnesota because of something to do with ZEV classification which impacts margins. If Tesla can get all of its gigafactories up and going I imagine they would actually be able to produce a profitable "$20,00O car", if competition ever made it necessary.