OP
OP
March. I think you can safely sell $90 or higher calls through December and they will expire worthless.
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Stock Market Era |OT3| Nobody expects the Spanish Inflation!
- Thread starter Sheepinator
- Start date
- OT
Also, everyone should watch that 30 minute video that he references in his write up. It's very helpful for understanding all of this (watch on 1.5x for godsake if you feel that it's too long).
Reducing Inflation Will Come at a Great Cost: Stagflation
For me, hearing supposed “experts” talk about what’s now happening in the markets and economy is like listening to nails scratch against a chalkboard because they are typically saying incorrect things in an erudite rather than commonsense way. Markets and economic movements are driven by much simplewww.linkedin.com
Good read by Ray Dalio
FDA ordered Altria to pull Juul off the market, hence the drop.
r/dividends are a hot mess with boomers blaming Biden for the end of the world aka "my dividend portfolio is taking a dump."
Of course but I don't blame him. If he tells the truth, the market goes into a free-fall. You also have to consider midterms are coming up and assume he is under political pressure as well.
US Real GDP is back to precovid trend, UK/EU really didn't get back to trend, factor in the dollar run and energy situations and the US is better off than their overseas counterparts. That's not to say the US won't head into a ditch, but they're coming off a higher peak, with strong growth. He's not lying, he's just looking at lagging data.
I waited so long for this, but it looks like it finally happened. Weekly gap was filled on IWM last week
Now the work begins to try and move back higher. That gap down window above/under the 200 week moving average is now a pretty important spot to try and push back above. Don't really want last week's low to be broken under for an extended period of time either.
Now the work begins to try and move back higher. That gap down window above/under the 200 week moving average is now a pretty important spot to try and push back above. Don't really want last week's low to be broken under for an extended period of time either.
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I keep seeing everyone trying to predict the bottom of the market and I keep taking away the same answer, if you keep slowly averaging into your favorite companies that intend to invest long term in you'll never be sad. I'd love a chance to sell a call on a crazy dead cat bounce sometime soon, tho.
I'm not trying to crap on dollar cost averaging stocks long term, I get it, but it's not always a surefire plan. If dollar cost averaging "good" companies was so easy, every stock picker would way out perform the overall market. Most don't. One can have a good fundamental thesis, but if the technical setup doesn't support it, this person is likely throwing good money after bad.
If one wants to trade/invest in stocks, I really do believe it is important to follow both technicals and fundamentals. A person can be stronger in one aspect than another. Just that two need to line up together for better longer term trades/investments. This combo can also help one to be on alert too, when they start to diverge heavily. Like the excessive froth in the market from 2021.
Joseph Carlson is one of my favorite fundamental watchers on YouTube. But multiple of his buys are down like 80 percent. He isn't getting that money back in these stocks. Major props to him though for showing his portfolio, good and bad.
Though if one is dollar cost averaging Apple or megacap tech companies, I can see the argument for this instead of a SP500 fund. One must be right on these individual companies for decades and make sure to follow earnings, and earnings reactions. Whereas the SP500 fund will rebalance once a year, moving in stocks and tossing others out based on how they perform. The sp500 fund today is much different than it was 20 years ago. Will be much different again in 20 more years.
If one wants to trade/invest in stocks, I really do believe it is important to follow both technicals and fundamentals. A person can be stronger in one aspect than another. Just that two need to line up together for better longer term trades/investments. This combo can also help one to be on alert too, when they start to diverge heavily. Like the excessive froth in the market from 2021.
Joseph Carlson is one of my favorite fundamental watchers on YouTube. But multiple of his buys are down like 80 percent. He isn't getting that money back in these stocks. Major props to him though for showing his portfolio, good and bad.
Though if one is dollar cost averaging Apple or megacap tech companies, I can see the argument for this instead of a SP500 fund. One must be right on these individual companies for decades and make sure to follow earnings, and earnings reactions. Whereas the SP500 fund will rebalance once a year, moving in stocks and tossing others out based on how they perform. The sp500 fund today is much different than it was 20 years ago. Will be much different again in 20 more years.
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If you're going to DCA, I would just DCA into the S&P500 rather than try my hand at stock-picking. But I'm just a boring Boglehead.
That's because picking the right stocks is extremely difficult. Performing a correct fundamental analysis like a DCF model is not easy at all.
Don't worry, 95% of what I'm doing is contributing to boring index funds with low fees. This is just to build up a portfolio of stuff i like to use for small margin plays and leaps
OP
OP
True. Generally I view current market levels as too late to sell, and too early to buy. That's not to say DCA is wrong. It may be the best approach. We may have seen the bottom (how many times have we said that?), but the safer technicals play is to wait for confirmation and better signals. And re fundamentals, we could see some terrible reports and guidance in the upcoming earnings season, which will include peak inflation quarter and likely a lot of uncertain guidance going forward. This rough patch could easily last longer than many of us hope it will.
Yeah I'm not holding my breath for the markets right now. My indicator at the moment is Shopify's US stock listing. It has major resistance at 400 USD and any time it has come near the price, the market tanks.
FYI, it's around 385 right now.
GDP release on Wednesday + quarterly selloff Thursday is going to be very spicy 🥵
Good time to add more to my GOOG position.
It did pretty well today.
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Yeah I agree. The stock picking game is actually hard. Intrestingly enough I don't even look at DCF directly. I really only care about future growth and trends. I'm not against people trading and investing in stocks. I do like that some want to take an active interest in doing this. Just that trading and investing in stocks is not really a hands off approach, such as dollar cost averaging a SP500 ETF. One needs to watch the stocks more closely. Since the initial idea can be right, but it may not be right anymore 3 to 5 years down the road.
The highs and lows of the 2020 into 2022 stock market is great teachable moment for the future. We had the exuberant high from the 2020 crash bounce into 2021. Now the painful low of a prologned bear market. I hope people are studying up these last couple years, because this type of cycle will likely repeat itself again in our lifetime. Not the exact same setup, but it will be similar. Now everyone has expereience, with things to look back on.
What you bring up here is interesting, and something I have thought about for awhile. Instead of looking for the bottom, what's the catalyst for a sustained move to new all time highs in 2022? The only catalyst I can look at right now are technical signals, once and if they materialize.
With the market overall, I keep contemplating if we are burning off froth from the last two years, or maybe the last 13? Was 4800 on SP500 a two year cycle top, or a 13 year super cycle top from 2009 low? I don't like to predict because things can always change quickly, but my expectations right now are not for the SP500 to break out to new all time high this year. I'm still looking for a W type move, or WWW, whenever the market starts a sustained rally. I think there are sellers waiting for 4500 to 4800 to get out and get flat, which will keep pushing the market back down. At the same time, I do think things will get back to normal over the next couple years, and we will see SP500 10K+ in our lifetimes. So for this reason I'll keep DCAing VTI, but not for some sort of instant gratification. More of a 20-30 year outlook on it. If we continue to slide lower again, I'll get more aggressive with my weekly DCA.
For trading, I am eyeing heavily right now a lot of stocks that went into a bear market first that still look like they are trying to base here. But even for these, I'm only looking for tradeable bounces. Not many stocks in this sector I actually want to hold long term.
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I thought the flush was supposed to be tomorrow with the GDP drop. I was actually expecting a little pullback today but nothing this drastic. Just straight dump 🥴
Yup.
My grandfather told me if you want to become a better investor, one should take a college course on macroeconomics.
When you understand the difference between Keynesian economics vs Monetarism, what makes goods inelastic vs elastic, the difference between monetary or fiscal policy, or how demand destruction comes into play, one can gauge the direction of the economy and its influence on the market.
The greatest bull run in history was propped on QE and low interest rates for far too long.
The Fed cannot pivot and use QE to stimulate the economy like it did during the Great Recession or Covid because they have to tame inflation first and foremost.
Not only that, the Fed's dual mandate of price stability and maximum sustainable employment means retirement accounts taking a hit is inconsequential in pursuit of its policy goals.
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OP
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Cathie Wood's flagship fund has taken in over $600 million since mid-June
Investors are pouring millions of dollars into Cathie Wood's flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), despite its free-fall from pandemic highs.
Even as the strategy comes off of its worst drawdown since inception, the ARK Innovation fund has accumulated inflows for eight consecutive days through Monday, its longest streak since March 2021, according to Bloomberg data.
ARKK took in about $639 million in new investor cash during this period.
Cathie Wood's flagship fund has taken in over $600 million since mid-June
Investors are pouring millions of dollars into Cathie Wood’s flagship Ark Invest fund despite its free-fall from pandemic highs.
AMD Investigating Alleged 450Gb Data Theft by RansomHouse Extortionists (Update)
Extortion group tries to ransom hacked AMD data
Cathie Wood's flagship fund has taken in over $600 million since mid-June
Investors are pouring millions of dollars into Cathie Wood's flagship ARK Innovation ETF (ARKK), despite its free-fall from pandemic highs.
Even as the strategy comes off of its worst drawdown since inception, the ARK Innovation fund has accumulated inflows for eight consecutive days through Monday, its longest streak since March 2021, according to Bloomberg data.
ARKK took in about $639 million in new investor cash during this period.
Cathie Wood's flagship fund has taken in over $600 million since mid-June
Investors are pouring millions of dollars into Cathie Wood’s flagship Ark Invest fund despite its free-fall from pandemic highs.finance.yahoo.com
I dont find this nearly as odd as the people buying during the mania run up when things were peaking. Hindsight and all that sure, but still. Markets are way down, if you were going to buy now would be the time, not back when everyone and their mom was raking in double digit yearly gains.
Don't worry, Powell is pumping it up as we speak. Today is 100% green.
My county just passed a proposal to issue like $260m in bonds at 10%. I gotta figure out how to buy some of those.
That GDP revision doesn't surprise me after all the company revisions we are seeing. Still looking for analysts to drop SP500 earnings per share. So dumb they haven't cut yet. Way too late. Market already did a bunch of the work for them already. If things end up being worse than anticipated, these analysts will likely be late on this call too. These clowns are always chasing pricing action.
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OP
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The hack of AMD happened due to weak passwords including "password". WTF.
www.pcgamer.com
AMD hack due to some of its passwords being just 'password'
Extortion group allegedly has "more than 450Gb" of AMD's data.