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Stock Market Era |OT3| Nobody expects the Spanish Inflation!
- Thread starter Sheepinator
- Start date
- OT
Surely that would only be reflected next month?
Anyway, futures plummeting. I wonder will it hold, though. Surely this wasn't a huge surprise.
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The good news is Core CPI is still trending down, came in at 5.9% when it was 6.0% last month. That means we are trending in the right direction, it's just taking time to turn the train around, that's all. My hunch is CPI for next month will come down a bit, and from there we start to see it gradually fall in a better direction.
Today will likely be very red though.
Today will likely be very red though.
To be fair Brent Crude started accelerating in May again (was ~$100) until it reached it's peak on June 8 with a price of $125.
It came down to $98 as of now (-20%), so prices at the gas station are going to lag at least a month after the turnaround.
Also this time it hopefully stays under $100 as it bounced back several times this year.
10% chance it did. 10% chance it is a trap. 80% chance the market has no idea what to do.
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It infuriates me how this useless Fed let this situation unfold. They just sat back as this was all happening, then acted like a deer in headlights. Fed being slow to take their foot off the gas isn't new, but this was negligence of the highest order.
that's what needs to happen
shock and awe to stomp inflation down. if you go too hard do a slight cut later. they dug this grave themselves
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No wonder Unity is down 16%, to 10% above their 2-year low. Big news is their acquisition of merger with IronSource, at a cost of $4.4BN all stock. So that's dilution, which they try to offset with a sweetener of a $2.5BN stock buyback after the deal is completed (who knows how much they end up buying of course).
Unity's marketcap was less than $12BN yesterday. Reminders here of Discovery absorbing WB, which led to an overhang of sellers too once T shareholders got some WBD shares.
In addition,
"Unity reduces full-year 2022 revenue guidance from $1,350 - $1,425 million to $1,300 - $1,350 million."
finance.yahoo.com
Unity's marketcap was less than $12BN yesterday. Reminders here of Discovery absorbing WB, which led to an overhang of sellers too once T shareholders got some WBD shares.
In addition,
"Unity reduces full-year 2022 revenue guidance from $1,350 - $1,425 million to $1,300 - $1,350 million."
Unity Announces Merger Agreement with ironSource
SAN FRANCISCO & TEL AVIV, Israel, July 13, 2022--Unity (NYSE: U), the world’s leading platform for creating and operating interactive, real-time 3D (RT3D) content, and ironSource, (NYSE: IS), a leading business platform that empowers mobile content creators to turn their apps into scalable...
Were the Biden bazooka's negligence after the December '20 package went through? I mean they were still talking student debt forgiveness well into this ripper. Everyone blames the Fed, and they don't need me carrying their water, but lets say they start raising in Sep 21, what in the world does that do in the face of the massive stimulus package and direct transfers to households/business that went through with the last couple of packages? Hell the prints going into late summer early fall looked okish, and then boom. When businesses were getting 7k per employee per quarter, revised from 5k a year under the previous plan, for retaining employees..... The sums are just too big, and they were direct transfers to the household sector, it's massive boon, this wasn't about those 3k stimmy checks, but everything else that went into some of these stimulus plans.
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True, but those spending packages were all talk since early last year, after Manchin stalled them for months then eventually shot them down under cover of inflation. There was also the hangover of huge deficit spending done by Trump (66% higher than Obama's second term), even before that additional covid spending.
That said, high chance Biden cancels $10K of student debt per person before the midterms I think.
Between Trump/Congress December 20 package, and the ARP package in March 21, they blasted almost 3 trillion into the economy, most of which was direct transfers to folks in various alphabet soup programs. I mean to put it in perspective, the Fed does all this QE, but the Treasury Department was sitting on 1.3 trillion in their General Account in March/April '21, that account was directly sucking money out of the "system" that the Fed put in, LOL. Essentially the Fed had to build a run way via QE, so the Treasury would have room to mop it up without starving the beast, but eventually the TGA was going to be spent down via transfers.
It's safe to say that they went too big, lot of blame to go around if you ask me. Truthfully I wonder how this will scar future policy in downturns/shocks.
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_w6eXAx1FgY
Lyn Alden is always a good listen. She appeared in today's Blockworks Macro.
The semiconductor industry was only going downhill from here right?
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmcs-q2-profit-76-beats-053627421.html
"Taiwan's TSMC forecast revenue growth that could be the highest in 10 quarters, saying it was "highly confident" about its long-term prospects and touted demand for high-tech chips used in 5G networks and artificial intelligence.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC), the world's largest contract chipmaker and a major Apple Inc supplier, said it expected third-quarter revenue to surge to between $19.8 billion and $20.6 billion, up from $14.88 billion a year earlier.
In the second quarter ended June 30, TSMC's revenue rose 36.6%, and net profit surged 76.4% - the biggest jump in eight quarters and handily beating market estimates.
The strong results and outlook underscore red-hot demand for TSMC's chips amid a two-year global shortage and ease some doubts after several chipmakers including Micron Technology Inc recently sounded an alarm about a sudden glut.
They are also testament to the demand for Apple's iPhone 13 despite record global inflation and worries of a looming recession. Smartphone sales at other companies such as market leader Samsung Electronics Co Ltd have declined following a pandemic-fuelled surge in demand.
Long-term chip demand remains "firmly in place", TSMC's Chief Executive Officer C. C. Wei told an online earnings briefing. He said he expected capacity utilisation at the company's chip fabrication plants to stay "healthy" next year.
TSMC, whose clients also include chip majors such as Qualcomm Inc, raised its revenue growth expectations for 2022 to more than 30% from a previous forecast of roughly 26% to 29%.
Still, TSMC said capital expenditure will skim the lower end of its previous guidance of $40 billion to $44 billion as it said it was facing rising raw material costs.
It signalled that demand was cooling for chips used in consumer electronics, and that it expects customers to start to reduce chip stockpiles over the next few quarters into 2023.
TSMC said net profit for April-June rose to a record T$237.0 billion ($7.94 billion). That beat the T$219.13 billion average of 19 analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv.
Shares of TSMC have fallen about 23% so far this year, giving the firm a market value of $408.3 billion. The stock rose 1% on Thursday, compared with a 0.8% gain for the benchmark index."
https://finance.yahoo.com/news/tsmcs-q2-profit-76-beats-053627421.html
"Taiwan's TSMC forecast revenue growth that could be the highest in 10 quarters, saying it was "highly confident" about its long-term prospects and touted demand for high-tech chips used in 5G networks and artificial intelligence.
Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co Ltd (TSMC), the world's largest contract chipmaker and a major Apple Inc supplier, said it expected third-quarter revenue to surge to between $19.8 billion and $20.6 billion, up from $14.88 billion a year earlier.
In the second quarter ended June 30, TSMC's revenue rose 36.6%, and net profit surged 76.4% - the biggest jump in eight quarters and handily beating market estimates.
The strong results and outlook underscore red-hot demand for TSMC's chips amid a two-year global shortage and ease some doubts after several chipmakers including Micron Technology Inc recently sounded an alarm about a sudden glut.
They are also testament to the demand for Apple's iPhone 13 despite record global inflation and worries of a looming recession. Smartphone sales at other companies such as market leader Samsung Electronics Co Ltd have declined following a pandemic-fuelled surge in demand.
Long-term chip demand remains "firmly in place", TSMC's Chief Executive Officer C. C. Wei told an online earnings briefing. He said he expected capacity utilisation at the company's chip fabrication plants to stay "healthy" next year.
TSMC, whose clients also include chip majors such as Qualcomm Inc, raised its revenue growth expectations for 2022 to more than 30% from a previous forecast of roughly 26% to 29%.
Still, TSMC said capital expenditure will skim the lower end of its previous guidance of $40 billion to $44 billion as it said it was facing rising raw material costs.
It signalled that demand was cooling for chips used in consumer electronics, and that it expects customers to start to reduce chip stockpiles over the next few quarters into 2023.
TSMC said net profit for April-June rose to a record T$237.0 billion ($7.94 billion). That beat the T$219.13 billion average of 19 analyst estimates compiled by Refinitiv.
Shares of TSMC have fallen about 23% so far this year, giving the firm a market value of $408.3 billion. The stock rose 1% on Thursday, compared with a 0.8% gain for the benchmark index."
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The only real positive from this downturn in the market is the the two equities I've been eyeing to add to my portfolio will be added sooner than I expected given the lowered evaluations (I don't DCA but rather conduct bulk buys in multiples of 10)
IMO, I figured it's because other markets are reacting to our CPI data and then there's more data coming out today and tomorrow I think. Also bank earnings!
Crude just dipped to it's lowest price since February 2022 (around $94.5).
-25% since the last peak in mid-June
finance.yahoo.com
-25% since the last peak in mid-June
Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
Find the latest Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
finance.yahoo.com
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And gas prices are still nearly 25% higher than mid-Feb.
Analysts downgrading:
On Thursday morning, equity strategists at Bank of America Global Research led by Savita Subramanian cut their year-end price target on the benchmark S&P 500 to 3,600 from 4,500.
Analysts downgrading:
On Thursday morning, equity strategists at Bank of America Global Research led by Savita Subramanian cut their year-end price target on the benchmark S&P 500 to 3,600 from 4,500.
I'm sitting with approximately 40% cash just waiting for something to give me any optimism for the future. Still DCAing max in 401k and HSA but I need some indication of movement that's more positive or a big drop before I jump back in.
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Curious, what is the difference between DCA and multiple buys?
EDIT: Should have Googled. DCA means equal dollar amount. I always assumed when people talked about DCA they were meaning generally, "Bought more of X to lower cost basis."
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Crude just dipped to it's lowest price since February 2022 (around $94.5).
-25% since the last peak in mid-June
Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F) Stock Price, News, Quote & History - Yahoo Finance
Find the latest Brent Crude Oil Last Day Financ (BZ=F) stock quote, history, news and other vital information to help you with your stock trading and investing.
And yet with the dollar run that move is offset to a degree for many many countries. I mean Yen is down what 20%, I suppose any relief is good but conditions still tight as hell with the dollar running roughshod.
Isn't the biggest hurdle/question right now if Europe can figure out their energy security without Russian imports, especially gas?
As far as I read it:
• Total stop of coal imports on 10 August 2022, so just a month away
Coal has to travel longer distances by then (imports from Australia, South Africa, etc.) and there's less supply on the world market as Russia gets cut out. On the other hand everything should be settled by the end of the year as we're basically reshuffling the world market right now. So, it might result in (even) higher prices up to this date and after this, but after everything is figured out, I don't see a reason for further price increases in this sector (someone correct me if wrong).
• Stop of oil imports in Decemer 2022 / end of the year
Probably the same story as with coal, find new import partners, less supply because of Russia, prices spike. That said if the economy cools off oil prices should hopefully decrease further from now on. If everything is settled / figured out at begin of the new year, this could further decrease the price.
• Gas don't know, they'll import it as long as they can
The big question mark. That said Germany could offset 20% of Russian imports with their new LNG terminals alone if they finish them this year. But who knows how this thing will play out in the next few weeks / months.
So, aside from Gas, there's going to be a lot less uncertainty about the flow / trade of coal and oil after the import bans are actually activated, which is somewhat positive.
Guess we will find out the dollar impact soon with megacap earnings.
Individual stocks still carry lots of risk of course, however as MrBob said recently, I've been looking at some ETF's for green shoots. I'm seeing that with XLV, healthcare. The moving averages are turning up on the lower time frames, and it's looking to push past resistance in the $131 handle. It's above the 21 and 50 ma's. Healthcare should do well in this environment too.
XLV is good to watch. Don't forget to zoom out to the weekly and monthly charts too to grab a look at the longer term picture. Here is a quick weekly chart.
XLV is in a bull flag/wedge over the past month right underneath the convergence of the 20 week and 50 week moving averages, but these have been resistance so far. Above the 20/50 week moving average convergence, I've tried to mark price areas where XLV has had some heavier resistance with bigger sell offs. These are additional hurdles to look for on the way back up, where these sell offs could be long term distribution. Similar to what the IWM and Amazon experienced. Getting above that convergence of the 20/50 week and holding on weekly closes would allow XLV to at least try to grind up higher. Also look at how that 25% Fibonacci retracement level price area from the covid low to current high was multi month resistance on the way up, and has had multiple bounces off this area from above. Chart definitely saying this price area is important too.
Though a lot of these weekly charts are basically in large range, long sideways patterns right now. Even ARKK has been basing sideways for the past couple months. Can take these for quick swing trades near the low of the base, as long as that bottom base holds. Or just wait for some breakout confirmation. Tried to break higher last week, but was denied.
Now back in the middle of it's sideways pattern again.
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