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Stock market is pretty F'd right now
- Thread starter ToddBonzalez
- Start date
I cut my 401k contributions to almost nothing in the lead up to my wedding this spring to have more cash on hand, and so far I've seen nothing that suggests I should change it back lol.
I pulled out at the beginning of the week. I had a good run and honestly I was just tired of it for the most part. I started in 2020 and it was just some extra "fun" money I had. I made a lot of mistakes, but I still came out very well because I got into the market at the right time. It was honestly a good learning experience. I still have my Roth IRA and TSP, so I'm fine for retirement and all that jazz.
The money I made will likely be going as a down payment on a house or condo.
The money I made will likely be going as a down payment on a house or condo.
Right now. ASAP
You might lose some money short term, but long term, just keep plowing money in and it will pay you back.
Just pick a few Vanguard mutual/ETF stocks. I prefer a 60/20/20 split with large cap, mid cap, and small cap because it historically returns slightly better than going mostly large cap.
Vanguard Investment Products List
VHYAX 40
VIGAX 20
VIMAX 20
VSIAX 20
Why ETFs and not Mutual Funds? If you got money to spare just go in no? I'm too busy working and forget to buy the dip at the end of the day. However considering my current situation, I am in a good position to buy the dip should it keep dipping.
You bought out at definitely the worst possible time. Lol
I won't bother trying to understand why but as long as you're happy and came up ahead.
Bitcoin is hot air.
Stocks are tiny pieces of ownership of actual businesses that provide actual jobs and actual goods and services. By owning a broad index of the market, there is risk but not the same as a bullshit ponzi scheme. The risk is of the US economy will permanently go defunct or not. Because otherwise, long term stocks go up 6-8% in real value. If inflation is 8%, it goes up on average 14-16% nominal. It only takes 4 years to double valuations at that return. It is extremely bad advice to move money out of stocks for 10+ year investments. Nothing hedges inflation better than stock indices because everything in business financials is in USD and as we already see in stores they quickly adjust prices. Their earnings in the next year will inflate to reflect that.
A lot of times mutual funds are available as ETFs.
ETFs vs. Mutual Funds: Which To Choose | Vanguard
Compare ETF vs. mutual fund minimums, pricing, risk, management, and costs, then weigh the pros and cons.
investor.vanguard.com
I dont think recession is happening. For a recession to happen, unemployment needs to go up. Job market is still solid. Inflation will be the biggest obstacle going forward.
I'm only buying roughly $100 of Starbucks stock every week to keep buying low, but not going crazy with it.
it's a good time to buy some stocks. I wouldn't sell any stocks though until probably sometime next year.
I would not advise anyone to get involved with crypto, or with individual stocks, especially if they are not already contributing to a retirement fund. Mutual/Index funds all day long and hold on to them for about 30 years.
Just look at historic charts of index funds if you're iffy.
Taking aside the current short term (last year or so), there was no point on the line in any of them where you wouldn't kill to throw in all of your money today. In 20 years, you'll wish you could dump everything into the most recent peak that we're dropping down from.
And if the market is down from here 20-30 years from now? Well, that would mean that there has been some sort of collapse and your money would probably be just as useless in a bank.
Taking aside the current short term (last year or so), there was no point on the line in any of them where you wouldn't kill to throw in all of your money today. In 20 years, you'll wish you could dump everything into the most recent peak that we're dropping down from.
And if the market is down from here 20-30 years from now? Well, that would mean that there has been some sort of collapse and your money would probably be just as useless in a bank.
Yeah I'll never understand why people think stocks are risky long term. Like pull up S&P 500 over 30 years. Now go back to the great recession before/after the crash. It went from like 1500 to 700, and now it's 3900. We are still well over double the valuation pre-crash!
Look at any major index that's weighted. Over 10+ years they always go up, even if you buy at the worst possible time - just before a crash. Note I say major index, smaller sectors like small cap index can stagnant for over a decade, but long term it is about 10-12% which is why I aim for 20% in my portfolio. I may ease on it as I get older.
I remember reading a book that analyzed the great depression and I think it was around 10 years to break even. That's why I generally recommend not worrying about day to day changes for 10+ years. There's similar analysis on stocks versus other asset classes with inflation. IIRC, stocks always win, with the exception of niche sectors that largely purchase quickly deprecating assets like tech but these days I don't think that even applies anymore because that's cloud providers and they can just inflate their hourly rates to match inflation.
Today. Tomorrow. Next week. Next month. Consistently.
Long run, the market always goes up.
It's 100% due to media portrayal, where anyone who invests ends up getting their comeuppance and losing everything. Index funds don't exist in the media, just catastrophic crashes
Wellllll, could go either way. If things are down, jobs are slashed, if there aren't many jobs on the market, employees become more competitive about what they're willing to give up to get those few jobs, work at home jobs start to disappear, inflation/gas costs go up, less spending, companies make less money and cut more jobs, repeat, repeat.
Some fields are already starting to slash jobs heavily like the mortgage industry.
I don't think a recession is guaranteed, but it could happen for sure if enough companies get cold feet and start slashing jobs and freezing hiring.
Glad I'm not retiring anytime soon. We're fortunate enough to have money saved so we decided to invest long term. Hopefully it works out.
The great part about not having enough money to invest in the stock market is that you can't lose anything.
But that still makes me more fucked than people who can afford to invest.
But that still makes me more fucked than people who can afford to invest.
The media focuses too much on hype/growth stocks too, which is why there's this perception individual stocks, ETFs, index, and mutual funds are all the same as gambling at a casino.
Which, admittedly, I understand from a compelling story perspective. Someone losing it all or gaining a massive fortune YOLO'ing on Nikola for instance is just significantly more captivating than someone buying VOO/VTI/SPY/QQQ, or a stable consisting of AWK, MMM, CAT, and DUKE fairly regularly.
People dunk on it because they find it "boring" 🤷🏾♂️ and a company paying a dividend is attached to the idea the days of insane gains are over.
I'd say the market fooled people all throughout last year and early into this year. Now it's done playing its games.
What are the advantages of VFIAX and VTWAX?
Mine's in VTSAX/VTIAX and have been for nearly the past 10 years, along with some legacy USAA funds for my brokerage account that I converted over and never liquidated. At some point I will need to figure out rebalancing, but I'm damn glad I set up auto-investment and have been letting it ride. I'm down about 100k this year so far, but still up 9.5% LTD, somehow.
I have never touched individual stocks and never will.
Down 14% for my investments. But, if you have the spare cash, it's worth it to continue to invest. These are long term investments
Yeah, that's what I have to tell myself. I've only been in a position to invest since last fall with my new career, I invested a decent amount of money and it legitimately feels like it was the worst time to invest, but I am in this for the long haul, so it'll work out...eventually.
I like VFIAX or any of the Vanguard S&P 500 trackers. I also invest in VTWAX. I also invest in AIQ - due to my industry experience and assessment that AI/ML will explode within the upcoming decade, however it hasn't been doing as well as I expected over the last 2 years or so. So use your judgement, but you can't go wrong with any of the Vanguard S&P 500 funds.
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VTI (total stock market), VXUS (if betting on international markets), or SPY (top 500 S&P companies in the market—it's rebalanced when needed).
Yeah it's only a bad situation if you need the money NOW or if your retirement was tied to your investments and you were ready to stop working.
technically we're in a bear market but recession is likely so prices will go down even further
i've been pretty conservative these days due to so much chop and a lot of ppl (going by social media) are getting trapped
i'd advise new investors to wait but as everyone says it's hard to time the market. dca in target date funds if u feel compelled but don't want to look at charts all day lol
i've been pretty conservative these days due to so much chop and a lot of ppl (going by social media) are getting trapped
i'd advise new investors to wait but as everyone says it's hard to time the market. dca in target date funds if u feel compelled but don't want to look at charts all day lol
If they decide on a 75bps rate hike it's going to be a massacre.
Not financial advise but how I'm doing it with the index ETF, depending on how fast the decline happens - tiny bit now, little tincy bit more when SPY (SnP500) hits 380.
Much more if/when SPY hits close to 350. If it goes as low as 280 all in - that I'm using for the SNP500.
We've got a while of uncertainty left, maybe like a year. If it tanks a bit right now, I'm not buying a tonne unless it's at a ridiculous price because of some short-term catalyst, there's room to go. Don't freak out if it starts to go up soon and you think you missed your chance, you haven't.
Not financial advise but how I'm doing it with the index ETF, depending on how fast the decline happens - tiny bit now, little tincy bit more when SPY (SnP500) hits 380.
Much more if/when SPY hits close to 350. If it goes as low as 280 all in - that I'm using for the SNP500.
We've got a while of uncertainty left, maybe like a year. If it tanks a bit right now, I'm not buying a tonne unless it's at a ridiculous price because of some short-term catalyst, there's room to go. Don't freak out if it starts to go up soon and you think you missed your chance, you haven't.
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Length of time being in the market outweighs anything. If you plan on holding these accounts until retirement, I'd suggest putting weekly or monthly deposits in (regardless of being +/-) to continue building and look into DCA (dollar cost averaging). DCA comes in handy if you're down on a long term position where you continue buying more on the dip down because it'll ultimately lower your avg cost from your original buy-in point.