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Aeleus

Member
Nov 29, 2018
3,110
The modconfirmed town is shakier? Ok.
Now that we know it's likely that if a scum aligned copier copied Loki they'd also become mod confirmed the thing I find makes you more concretely town is that your flavour name is megaman

I think that means we have to flip Sawneeks and see if the streak continues.
Qgl3Q2K.gif
 
Oct 25, 2017
23,202
I think I'll be busy starting at around an hour before EoD, so given I'm certain I'll be in the running can we try and finish the day around then?

Picking between Chuggs and Sawneeks I think Chuggs is far far more likely to be FoL not only because he was targeted by Wee so is unlikely Jedah but also because his weirdness getting on and then getting off my wagon when it was between Swamped and me.

VA protected me last night. Nat killed Stan. I literally can't be FoL. If you're arguing that I'm scum I have to be in the Alliance. Or I just now killed last night for no reason
 

absolutbro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,628
The modconfirmed town is shakier? Ok.

Also to answer this question, yes.

I cannot think of a good solid path for having one scum team member exist solely to counteract another scum team. So either Cat has other abilities AND counters a scum team ability (not impossible), or Cat exists to protect town from a scum team power.
I can think of (or rather, have been pointed straight to) a good solid path for a scum copier to copy a town power and get a fake confirmation.


Cat Any reason you didn't cure Sawneeks of Las Plagas last night? Or did I just miss it?
 

Aeleus

Member
Nov 29, 2018
3,110
VA protected me last night. Nat killed Stan. I literally can't be FoL. If you're arguing that I'm scum I have to be in the Alliance. Or I just now killed last night for no reason
Firstly I don't actually believe VA protected you last night, because I have some kind of faith in his ability.

Secondly you are with out a doubt the worst target scum could have picked for a night kill.

Thirdly we don't know whether FoL could even attack last night, it's an assumption based on Dharkon's defeat making them stronger but it isn't definite by any means.
 

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
Legit think Muffin is an option for a Natiko kill at this point.
If I want any chance of getting my three kills in I think a bad plan for me would be to shoot one of the people most likely to flip town lol My best shot at winning at this point is to hit the remaining scum so fast that town can let me hit my wincon. In other words - pass.

What do you think of the posts I quoted from Chuggs of him reacting to the possibility of Swamped or me being lunched?
I think the connection there is slimmer than it is between you and Vere/Swamped. Lets look at the full vote breakdown over time:

Post #2990 (Chuggs moves from Aeleus to Swamped):
Swamped - 11
Aeleus - 9

Chuggs vote actually breaks a 10-10 tie between them and pushes Swamped ahead by 2.

Post #3077 (Chuggs moves to Muffin - citing honor concerns):
Swamped - 10
Aeleus - 8

Post #3109 (Chuggs moves back to Swamped getting concerned that the vote was closer than thought):
Swamped - 11
Aeleus - 7

Chuggs actually makes the move that pushes Swamped ahead (and she wouldn't lose that lead the rest of the day). If he's FoL and going to bus for the supposed good honor - why does he move to Muffin just to move back? Why doesn't he just stay content with the Aeleus scumread he had bought into and just stay there, trying to keep Swamped alive when they're already down Vere?
 

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
Vincent Alexander I do think it is becoming relevant whether you actually protected Chuggs or not last night. If you didn't you don't need to say who you protected, but if you protected Chuggs we need something other than a 'maybe'.
 

absolutbro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,628
This is correct

D1: wee/Vere (mine)
D4: Sorian/LP (Muffin's)
D5: Sorian/wee (Muffin's)
D5: myself/Fand (mine)
S/S
S/T
S/S
T/? (presumably town)

Holy crap this game. This is starting to remind me of Star Wars where the Town Armorers kept handing stuff to scum the entire game.

Secondly you are with out a doubt the worst target scum could have picked for a night kill.

Thirdly we don't know whether FoL could even attack last night, it's an assumption based on Dharkon's defeat making them stronger but it isn't definite by any means.
I mean, IF they're going to kill Chuggernaut last night wasn't a bad night for it. If they wait too long, they hand town a double vote when they need to control vote majority. They're better off doing it when the pool of confirmed town is so large that the vote goes to someone we already think is town. (i.e., Brazil, Cat, VA, etc)

But yeah, we don't know that FoL can kill odd nights yet as there's nothing in their role PM about it. I suspect they can, but that's just based on nothing really, other than JA getting to kill every night when FoL and FoD are both gone.
 
Oct 26, 2017
19,729
Firstly I don't actually believe VA protected you last night, because I have some kind of faith in his ability.

Secondly you are with out a doubt the worst target scum could have picked for a night kill.

Thirdly we don't know whether FoL could even attack last night, it's an assumption based on Dharkon's defeat making them stronger but it isn't definite by any means.
-Gasp- How dare you suggest I lied! I speaking nothing but truth, always and forever. But I was also kind of just blindly picking someone and landed on Chuggs since I hadn't visited them yet, and thought Nat might pay them a visit. Wasn't really worried about scum.
 

Aeleus

Member
Nov 29, 2018
3,110
If I want any chance of getting my three kills in I think a bad plan for me would be to shoot one of the people most likely to flip town lol My best shot at winning at this point is to hit the remaining scum so fast that town can let me hit my wincon. In other words - pass.


I think the connection there is slimmer than it is between you and Vere/Swamped. Lets look at the full vote breakdown over time:

Post #2990 (Chuggs moves from Aeleus to Swamped):
Swamped - 11
Aeleus - 9

Chuggs vote actually breaks a 10-10 tie between them and pushes Swamped ahead by 2.

Post #3077 (Chuggs moves to Muffin - citing honor concerns):
Swamped - 10
Aeleus - 8

Post #3109 (Chuggs moves back to Swamped getting concerned that the vote was closer than thought):
Swamped - 11
Aeleus - 7

Chuggs actually makes the move that pushes Swamped ahead (and she wouldn't lose that lead the rest of the day). If he's FoL and going to bus for the supposed good honor - why does he move to Muffin just to move back? Why doesn't he just stay content with the Aeleus scumread he had bought into and just stay there, trying to keep Swamped alive when they're already down Vere?
By the point that Chuggs voted Swamped over me Swamped was definitely dead, the mood had shifted. Even after that he went off wagon for the brief Muffin push, nothing there makes me thing Chuggs isn't FoL
 

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
By the point that Chuggs voted Swamped over me Swamped was definitely dead, the mood had shifted. Even after that he went off wagon for the brief Muffin push, nothing there makes me thing Chuggs isn't FoL
You received more votes than Swamped did in the posts leading up to Chuggs breaking a tie and putting Swamped in the lead by two votes.
 

Aeleus

Member
Nov 29, 2018
3,110
You received more votes than Swamped did in the posts leading up to Chuggs breaking a tie and putting Swamped in the lead by two votes.
Fantomas was before him and his vote was quickly followed by VA, then the votes after me purely wanted an extension to sort out Muffin and AB. As I said the tides had turned.
 

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
-Gasp- How dare you suggest I lied! I speaking nothing but truth, always and forever. But I was also kind of just blindly picking someone and landed on Chuggs since I hadn't visited them yet, and thought Nat might pay them a visit. Wasn't really worried about scum.
You..protected Chuggs to prevent him from being killed by me, but you opened up today thinking he's one of the more likely candidates to be scum and considered voting him today? What lol
 

Aeleus

Member
Nov 29, 2018
3,110
-Gasp- How dare you suggest I lied! I speaking nothing but truth, always and forever. But I was also kind of just blindly picking someone and landed on Chuggs since I hadn't visited them yet, and thought Nat might pay them a visit. Wasn't really worried about scum.
Ok let me quickly change something
Firstly I don't actually believe VA protected you last night, because I have some kind of faith in his ability.

Secondly you are with out a doubt the worst target scum could have picked for a night kill.

Thirdly we don't know whether FoL could even attack last night, it's an assumption based on Dharkon's defeat making them stronger but it isn't definite by any means.
 

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
Fantomas was before him and his vote was quickly followed by VA, then the votes after me purely wanted an extension to sort out Muffin and AB. As I said the tides had turned.
And the 30 minutes before he moved also had Fand, Swamped, and a Faddy double vote on you. They weren't votes purely meant to cause a day extension.
 

Aeleus

Member
Nov 29, 2018
3,110
If everyone has said their piece I don't mind being turboed (especially given no one else is seemingly interested in a Sawneeks lunch), though I'll want to do some obituary posts first
 

Aeleus

Member
Nov 29, 2018
3,110
"Nah, no way two scum on different teams would fake claim commuter - especially when the one that did the counter claim was behind on the thread and thought Fran had claimed ascetic due to Aeleus's recap notes"
I'll add to this and remind people how uneasy Sawneeks was about being put in the Fran v Sawneeks situation, she was probably preparing for a Fran flips town scenario
 

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
I wanted to avoid doing this because I'm almost certainly going to lose due to it, but I just don't feel confident enough that we're going to land on the last FoL team member. I'd feel really bad if withholding this cost town the game.

FoL definitely powered up after the death of FoD. I know this because my BP was hit last night. I was hoping VA wouldn't claim his protection, or would retract the protection of Chuggs but that's not happening which removes any chance of bluffing the last FoL member out. If we voted them out today I probably would have been fine because Jedah wouldn't be likely to go after me I assume (since it's weird as hell that scum in general did), but if we miss I'm probably dead and town wouldn't know what happened.

If we hit scum today I kindly ask that Vincent Alexander at least consider protecting me as town will be in a really strong position, and I'd only need one additional kill beyond the next night that they wouldn't be able to stop even if they target do target me afterwards. If we don't then I get it - I'll just embrace my death and loss. Thanks a lot Sorian.

----

As far as what this information actually tells us - not a ton other than WIFOM about FoL being a player that thinks I would target them soon, Chuggs had that weird post earlier that almost seemed like a slip that he knew my BP was gone but idk, and Chuggs can be FoL still (but he could have been Jedah regardless so not big change).
 

Aeleus

Member
Nov 29, 2018
3,110
As far as what this information actually tells us - not a ton other than WIFOM about FoL being a player that thinks I would target them soon, Chuggs had that weird post earlier that almost seemed like a slip that he knew my BP was gone but idk, and Chuggs can be FoL still (but he could have been Jedah regardless so not big change).
Me and Chuggs are both unlikely to be Jedah, Wee's power supposedly made Chugg roleclaim and Wee tried a gambit to try and kill me.

Which means that the final Jedah is likely someone else 👀
 

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
Me and Chuggs are both unlikely to be Jedah, Wee's power supposedly made Chugg roleclaim and Wee tried a gambit to try and kill me.

Which means that the final Jedah is likely someone else 👀
Oh yeah, I forgot all about the wee stuff. I already said Chuggs is the least likely to be scum in my mind of the three with only his weird statement earlier giving me doubts. I still think it's you and Saw. Big ol shrug though.
 
Oct 26, 2017
19,729
Welp, I'll go ahead and say it now:

I did not protect Chuggs last night. I wanted to see if scum out there might squirm at my lie if they knew that isn't who they really targeted.
 

Aeleus

Member
Nov 29, 2018
3,110
Welp, I'll go ahead and say it now:

I did not protect Chuggs last night. I wanted to see if scum out there might squirm at my lie if they knew that isn't who they really targeted.
Again VA?
Firstly I don't actually believe VA protected you last night, because I have some kind of faith in his ability.
⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ because I have some kind of faith in his ability maybe

Secondly you are with out a doubt the worst target scum could have picked for a night kill.

Thirdly we don't know whether FoL could even attack last night, it's an assumption based on Dharkon's defeat making them stronger but it isn't definite by any means.
 

absolutbro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,628
So, Forces of Light can only kill on even number nights. Verelios died N1 and Swamped died D2; their first chance to kill was N2. Now as the last remaining person on the team, the final FoL member could both kill AND use their actual role power, so looking for who did another action doesn't tell us anything.

There are three possible explanations for why nothing happened N2 (in no particular order):
1. The FoL was roleblocked (possible options: Fantomas, Brazil, Ketkat, Fandorin)
2. The FoL's kill was blocked (meaning they tried to kill Fran, Faddy or Aeleus)
3. The FoL chose not to do anything (least likely)

Option 3 is listed for completeness, but not really likely IMO. As far as scum knows, the tracker is dead and being down two team members means they HAVE to get some killing in.

Option 2: I feel like Faddy would have said something about losing his BP. Fran could have commuted like he said and dodged a kill. It is entirely possible. Scum could also have targeted Aeleus if they were worried about what their power does when given the Revolver, although they had already disclosed what it actually did to the Thunderdome power.

Option 1: I think I got all the roleblock options for N2. Fanto, Brazil and Ketkat were all blocked by the in game-events. Fandorin was blocked by L_P. Maol couldn't have used his roleblock, as he was busy infecting Muffin. Fran could have used his Jailer ability on someone, but we have no way of knowing who. Fran says he was commuting that day, which we can't prove one way or another. Stan's ability (I think it was Stan that targeted Fran N2) wouldn't have done anything to Fran, because Fran wasn't actually killing anyone, just blocking them.

It does mean that IF Fran's Jailer ability blocked the kill, Aeleus isn't our would-be killer because his Thunderdome went off.
I stole from Fantomas/EzekelRAGE that night, so he didn't Jailer me either.
Cat claims to have targeted Fran that night also, but wouldn't have gotten a result back either way.
Muffin tried and failed to copy Sorian N2. (Muffin when you copied Lokiduck did you also get the Roleblock (shield bash) and if so when and on whom did you use it?)


I've lost track of where this post was headed, because I kept editing it in different tabs and completely lost its flow. Point is I think it's unlikely Aeleus is our last FoL member. He wasn't roleblocked N2, and our doctor protected him that night so IF the doctor blocked the kill it means he's not FoL, unless he weirdly CHOSE not to kill after losing two team members in the first two days of the game.
 

Natiko

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,263
So, Forces of Light can only kill on even number nights. Verelios died N1 and Swamped died D2; their first chance to kill was N2. Now as the last remaining person on the team, the final FoL member could both kill AND use their actual role power, so looking for who did another action doesn't tell us anything.

There are three possible explanations for why nothing happened N2 (in no particular order):
1. The FoL was roleblocked (possible options: Fantomas, Brazil, Ketkat, Fandorin)
2. The FoL's kill was blocked (meaning they tried to kill Fran, Faddy or Aeleus)
3. The FoL chose not to do anything (least likely)

Option 3 is listed for completeness, but not really likely IMO. As far as scum knows, the tracker is dead and being down two team members means they HAVE to get some killing in.

Option 2: I feel like Faddy would have said something about losing his BP. Fran could have commuted like he said and dodged a kill. It is entirely possible. Scum could also have targeted Aeleus if they were worried about what their power does when given the Revolver, although they had already disclosed what it actually did to the Thunderdome power.

Option 1: I think I got all the roleblock options for N2. Fanto, Brazil and Ketkat were all blocked by the in game-events. Fandorin was blocked by L_P. Maol couldn't have used his roleblock, as he was busy infecting Muffin. Fran could have used his Jailer ability on someone, but we have no way of knowing who. Fran says he was commuting that day, which we can't prove one way or another. Stan's ability (I think it was Stan that targeted Fran N2) wouldn't have done anything to Fran, because Fran wasn't actually killing anyone, just blocking them.

It does mean that IF Fran's Jailer ability blocked the kill, Aeleus isn't our would-be killer because his Thunderdome went off.
I stole from Fantomas/EzekelRAGE that night, so he didn't Jailer me either.
Cat claims to have targeted Fran that night also, but wouldn't have gotten a result back either way.
Muffin tried and failed to copy Sorian N2. (Muffin when you copied Lokiduck did you also get the Roleblock (shield bash) and if so when and on whom did you use it?)


I've lost track of where this post was headed, because I kept editing it in different tabs and completely lost its flow. Point is I think it's unlikely Aeleus is our last FoL member. He wasn't roleblocked N2, and our doctor protected him that night so IF the doctor blocked the kill it means he's not FoL, unless he weirdly CHOSE not to kill after losing two team members in the first two days of the game.
I'd totally blanked out that VA protected Aeleus N2. Can someone link me to that tallying of who people wanted in the thunderdome?
 

Muffin

Member
Oct 26, 2017
10,339
You don't need to copy and paste, just paraphrase.
Between Sorian and LP:
Sorian:
Maol was a different faction and needs to be reread, LP looks like a partner to Swamped and needs to be lynched, thinks Stu is misguided, and what to do when Muffin copies either loki or Zeke, accept the greencheck or lynch Zeke if the copy didnt work.

LP: Basically nothing.
 

Muffin

Member
Oct 26, 2017
10,339
Between Sorian and Wee:
Sorian:
Claims the X-blade is his item, hes riku, doesnt want the item because he thinks it might make him evil, and surprised that Stu knew beforehand about his alignment change.

Wee:
Says he is not a pokemon.