Maybe I'm not understanding the set up but isn't it rather unlikely that we have a town rollerblocker? Like a 4% chance?
Kirby and the Forgotten Land (Mini) Mafia - Poyo*! (*: poyo means murder)
- Thread starter Fireblend
- Start date
Pretty similar list for me, I have EC lower and Stan higher currently but I'll read through the quotes you pulled when I have time to see where we differ. I guess my main thing with Stan is the Sparks push looks over the top, but with sparks dying n1 it's hard to say if that was setup for a bus or genuine town grilling. Leaning the latter for now.
You mentioned a malus/Hedin team, how do you feel about Stan/Hedin? I can't tell if the fact they were both on feps yesterday makes the Rando kill look better or worse.
I'm with the idea of holding claims for today, the only exception being a doctor should probably come forward since it's highly likely that points to feps lying. I was looking at the feps claim overnight and it's not particularly strong, but with no additional doctors he is the most town confirmed in the game.
It doesn't make me feel great about the slot. Pretty much all he has given us do far is mechanics talk. He did come in today and made a small read post but no real follow-up with it. I remember in Star Trek (I think?) I noted in spec that scum malus was fading into the background and missing votes, it feels the same here.
In terms of partners, if malus is indeed scum I would probably look at Stan. Those two have had no interactions with each other all game. Stan hasn't mentioned malus at all, malus only mentioned Stan in his POE today.
i think stan's grilling of sparks and that NOT changing his mind about nin says something is wrong there since scum has no day chat. the only way for scum to communicate would be here in the thread, which would explain stan's push there. D1 we also have little to no info to go off of and Stan circled in on nin really early and didn't seem to doubt his choice. i see a townie considering other options and maybe switching, not sticking there. double if he thought sparks was scum. i just dont see why he does all of that and stays put.
Stan/Hedin both being on FEP is what makes me pause there since it was one right after the other. stan being a 'shrug' and hedin being because of the Leo/Eddy thing just seems weird to do back-to-back like that. D1 hedin did ignore the whole nin push and never totally commented towards it and then ends on VA so...maybe ignoring stacking during that? it was before sparks voted there so it's not like he was avoiding sparks. sparks did also mention he was having trouble finding a place to be that 'wasn't scummy' so...could be stan?
not impossible. the D2 vote is just weird if true. the top wagon(s) were/are town so there's no reason to stack in such a way.
we have 2 scum left so who is the other besides stan?
Sneeks if you reread me you saw how hard i went in on nin, i was way more feeling nin was scum for the whole pile of reasons i gave, fir soarks i had a bad reason from a player who i routinely misread. Why would i swap? Especially when nins flip would be the surest piece of info for if that suspicion of sparks was at all sound, if nin flipped scum then i would have had somethong to reconsider wouldnt i?
I cut off part of this quote but still sneeks what the fuck are you talking about?
I questioned monkeys further questioning of sparks because she was asking the same questions that he had already badly answered, when i asked them they had not been answered and thus made sense to ask. Yeah i said im bad at reading sparks and any interrogation of him is unreliable, but that in no way means i think its pointless to even try.
And me trying to cover for him? My drilling dug him into a hole i was happy to leave him in, if im his teammate i basically just buried him for no reason.
Seriously the hell sneeks, its like you read that entire sequence backwards.
I wasnt secretive about this? i didnt buy the pushing on Eddy, weak reason but best i had to go on yesterday.
The claim from Fep really recontextualuses all of that, and it sounds like it fits with the game mechanic so no i dont think ill be pushing Feps at all anymore
Stan I don't agree it was the same. You asked Sparks about what info he would get and how that helped his town reads. Monkey was asking if nin was scum who he would be scum with + if anyone on Nin was acting suspect. Two very different things.
You asked Sparks: What info is gained from nin's flip? How is that beneficial? If nin is Town, how does that help you determine who else is Town?
Monkey asked: If Nin flips Town, who looks suspect? If Nin flips Mafia, who is his partner? Is someone pushing nin that's suspect? Is anyone in general acting suspect?
You asked Sparks: What info is gained from nin's flip? How is that beneficial? If nin is Town, how does that help you determine who else is Town?
Monkey asked: If Nin flips Town, who looks suspect? If Nin flips Mafia, who is his partner? Is someone pushing nin that's suspect? Is anyone in general acting suspect?
But you didn't bury him? You put out a hand to help him and he instead just buried himself and you walked away from it. Unfortunately we don't have the ability to see what you would have done in a world where Sparks lived after nin but part of me feels you would not have gone after him at all.
the fact that you negatively ping monkey* for asking sparks' questions but for some reason it's OK if you do it is sus
i say 'negatively ping' instead of scumread because looking back it's not a full scumread but you're basically saying what she did was not worth it and possibly performative.
i say 'negatively ping' instead of scumread because looking back it's not a full scumread but you're basically saying what she did was not worth it and possibly performative.
On monkeys questions to me thats largely a difference without a distinction. Like what else would Sparks "info" be but evudence of scum partners? If he had had the answers to monkeys questions then he had answers to mine.
It felt like the same line of questioning but worded more politely.
And no i didnt help him at all, i drilled him for reasons on his vote and left him looking well more suspicious than before i started with no attempt to fill in any blanks for him, i dont know how you can misconstrue this into a "helping hand".
Like this is sparks were talking about, i knew before i even started talking that his lack of satisfying answers was a very likely outcome. If i was scum trying to help him then im an idiot, monkey was the one coming later to try and give him a chance to dig up, hence my suspicion.
Which I've found can make all the difference with Sparks. I've asked him questions someone else did in a slightly different way and he'd get back to me even though he ignored it the first time. Repetition works.
Meh. I still disagree there but it's a difference of opinion at this point and I don't think we get anywhere by going back and forth forever. That and I like your responses here on a gut level? Hm.
Stan who would you shoot today
Question for the folks who get the numbers behind these set ups. Say someone is lying about their PR - would we be able to determine they are lying simply by the numbers? i.e. we only have 1 doc and not 2, could we determine that if we had all town claims out?
I guess it depends on what happens if a roleblocker blocks another roleblocker. If feps had protected Rando and our roleblocker successfully blocked the Scum roleblocker, then there wouldn't have been a kill. But that point is moot now anyway.
We know we rolled either 3 Ts or 1 T (Serial killer means it's either 1,3,5 or 7 Ts and 1-shot cop + 1-shot doc means it can't be 5 or 7). With 1-shot cop + 1-shot doc we know 3 non-T rolls (1 C + 2 D). We don't have an innocent child, so we didn't roll 1 M. There's also (presumably) been no vigilante kill, so that rules out V. So if we are in 3 T world, we either a) have a roleblocker, b) have a cautious 1-shot vigilante or c) one of the claims is fake.
In 1 T world we could have 2 more Cs, 2 more Ds or 2 Ms in order for the 1-shot cop + 1-shot doc to make sense, but that still leaves only 1 non-T roll which either has to be a V or a B.
It depends on which world we are in exactly. It's possible for Scum to fake claim in such a way that the numbers match up, but in most cases we should be able to tell if at least one PR is fake, though not necessarily which one.
well just on PoE im down to Malus, The Wizard, Hedin, and EC as more viable scum possibilities.
If i were to brutally murder one of them in cold blood right this second it would probably be The Wizard since the only scum lean i have left with and foundation would be the monkey thing you just might have heard me mention way back who remembers, but really id rather actually take the time i do now have this day phase to reassess those 4 properly.
you made half of this up didnt you? just trying to scare us good scumfearing folk with arcane terms and strange symbols.
Essentially, if feps' and HP's claims are true, then we have either a 1-shot vig or a roleblocker.
So how is everybody doing today?
I'll give the last page or two a quick reread before work, likely won't have to much time this calendar day but I'll pop in when I get the chance.
I did have two suggestions for how we can approach this day phase
1. We've had some lower activity and weird end of days so far, maybe because of the spread in timezones and peoples schedules but also maybe because scum don't have a day chat and they're trying to hold their tongues and avoid saying too much?
To get around this, I think we should vote early so that we have the time to examine the votes in this day phase rather than after it. If this day phase was over rather than halfway over in 6 hours, where would your vote be?
2. It seems like Sneeks is doing the most solving so far today, while that is helpful as she has good insight it also creates the chance that scum will piggyback off of an incorrect read and push us into miselim and lose. Since most people have a small PoE and we likely have a pair of scum left, I'd like to see people within the PoE try to solve. Essentially, we should force the last scum to have to talk about each other without the help of day chat and see if they slip up.
I'll give the last page or two a quick reread before work, likely won't have to much time this calendar day but I'll pop in when I get the chance.
I did have two suggestions for how we can approach this day phase
1. We've had some lower activity and weird end of days so far, maybe because of the spread in timezones and peoples schedules but also maybe because scum don't have a day chat and they're trying to hold their tongues and avoid saying too much?
To get around this, I think we should vote early so that we have the time to examine the votes in this day phase rather than after it. If this day phase was over rather than halfway over in 6 hours, where would your vote be?
2. It seems like Sneeks is doing the most solving so far today, while that is helpful as she has good insight it also creates the chance that scum will piggyback off of an incorrect read and push us into miselim and lose. Since most people have a small PoE and we likely have a pair of scum left, I'd like to see people within the PoE try to solve. Essentially, we should force the last scum to have to talk about each other without the help of day chat and see if they slip up.
I'm not sure what a vig would be waiting for, maybe wanting to increase their odds but also playing with fire that they could get killed before using it. That leads me to think it's a roleblocker, if as you said feps and HP are being truthful (and I don't really have reason to doubt them at this time).
I do think we should have people start getting votes down at the 24hr mark. We don't need to turbo at all but yes at this stage we need everyone voting and on the record.
Okay, has that changed at all with the flips and claims out in the open we've seen since?
What are the factors? Does this tie into your doubts on HP?
Good to know, I think you should hold onto this for the moment.
Yeah that feps vote was weird, I noted it because earlier on I thought malus could be partnered with feps since I've seen malus dodge a wagon and bus as scum. Since feps is town, I'm curious to see malus/EC interact today.
Hey Hedin, how do you feel about EC? If malus is town, who are you looking at as a team?
Hmm if this was Stan trying to communicate to his partner in Sparks in broad daylight, what was the message? "Sparks why are you stacking with me on the towny I'm trying to vote out" ? I don't really see it here.
Good point on the stacking, those votes were within an hour of each other and both relatively parked, I think Stan had turned in for the night and Hedin was busy that day. feps was looking fairly suspicious at the time those votes were cast, he may genuinely have needed his claim to save himself. With so many not voting, this could have been setup on a preferred wagon with Leo looking worse if he was counter wagon to town again?
My point here was less about the votes but what came after. Scum would know if the feps and Rando claims were truthful and that killing one could help confirm the other. If you're scum do you get rid of your top scum read (so your options free up again) or someone who is more town read by the rest of the room? I feel like Hedin/Stan would kill feps instead here but there is some WIFOM involved.
Thinking through that, I feel like this one of the less likely pairs given their votes/ the kills.
If all claims were out in the open and the numbers didn't add up we'd be able to tell that one of the claimees is lying but maybe not which exact person / role.
For the doc example, in this game Randos flip is like a mod message saying "There is another doctor in this game, 100%"
You're doubting a vigilante here, but there are 2 doctors and presumably a scum roleblocker. Rules say a vig shot is refunded if blocked, and it's unlikely it was blocked last night if scum saw 2 docs out there. While they don't explicitly state what happens if a vig shoots a protected target, I think the shot would be wasted, which could have happened either night.
From what I've been following, malus hasn't misrepresented anything in his setup comments.
I just reread through ECs posts and have as little of an opinion of EC as before i did that, which feels like an alarm in itself.
On the D1 vote we have the following still alive:
Nin - Sawneeks (Hawthorn - green check) and Stan
VA (Leo) - Wizard (Monkey), HP (1-shot cop claim), and Hedin (that's me!)
Off-train - malus, feps (doctor claim), and EC
Sparks was on the nin vote as scum.
I don't know if I would buy that both of the remaining scum to be off vote so I would not expect malus and EC to be teamed. The question would be if one of them would have stacked with Sparks on nin (which would just be Stan), or if they would have split and gone on VA instead (which would leave you and me). That is probably getting too much into WIFOM territory for my liking, especially with a smaller team, I could just be gun shy from my wagonomic attempts recently really not working out.
I feel pretty ok with EC at this point. I would like to see what his other things about Sneeks is and would like to see a little more fleshed out thoughts but he's probably on the upper side of my POE right now. If malus is town I would have to look at him harder for being off the vote on D1 and as I said earlier if malus is scum then I would look at Stan as a partner.
This just tells me youre in on it.
From what I've been following, malus hasn't misrepresented anything in his setup comments.
good god how far does this go?
From what I've been following, malus hasn't misrepresented anything in his setup comments.
This is spectacular by the way.
EC you haven't mentioned yet what the other factors are with Sneeks? Is it the godfather possibility or is there something else?
im reading hedin now and i dont know if it proving much more productive but its certainly taking longer so thats something.
Ah, apologies, I thought I mentioned the other factors in that post, but I must have wiped them before I posted, ha.
The other factors were more to do with the day 1 vote on Nin, which was made by Hawthorn, now Sneeks.
The other factors were more to do with the day 1 vote on Nin, which was made by Hawthorn, now Sneeks.
In an ideal game, nobody should be voting for confirmed town.
Which mean, yes, I should be looked at for voting for Leo yesterday.
Finishing Hedin reread and i actually feel quite good about em. Nothing stands out a particularly towny but just a lot of pretty good stuff, pushing in a solving direction and being fair and even handed about it, in particular a trend of involving in other disputes without any appearance of greater agenda.
If it is scum play its very well done.
If it is scum play its very well done.
this also isnt much of a reason.
it is 3:30 am here so i hope its okay if i so selfish as to continue rereads tomorrow, i should be mostly free for it fukin finally.
The bit from earlier about getting at least a preliminary vote down seemed sensible, so here.
Vote: EC
Nothin about that reread inspired any confidence, and worse still it was boring. Cant trust someone that avoided all the drama.
The bit from earlier about getting at least a preliminary vote down seemed sensible, so here.
Vote: EC
Nothin about that reread inspired any confidence, and worse still it was boring. Cant trust someone that avoided all the drama.
That's a really tough line to draw. Typically in a game ~25% of the players are scum, that's a really high standard to expect everyone to only vote for scum when the majority is not going to be scum.
Sure, I agree, but scum knows who isn't scum, so, any vote on a town-aligned player should be suspect.
Wait how was nin confirmed town? He had claimed vanilla but that was pretty much it.
Thought of some other things I want to look at when I have a moment free:
- Since nin had claimed vanilla, scum would either believe him or suspect he was an SK. Therefore I think they would prefer to spread or stack. If they could prop up a second town wagon they might have been able to bait a PR claim. It's possible they tried that with VA, who's willingness to be voted out might have reduced the PR pool.
That moves Stan up and Hedin down for me, but I would like to check if any of the single votes had wagon potential / were thrown down after nin and VA were leading.
- Without a day chat, day 2 should have been scums worse day. Whatever plan / strategy they could have come up with at night was likely scuppered by Fanto being SK and sparks dying. Therefore scum likely had to adapt in broad daylight without their partners insights. Nothing stood out on my first read of the day (mostly got bummed out at the wave of replace outs) but I'd there's a slip I think that day should be weaker.
- Since nin had claimed vanilla, scum would either believe him or suspect he was an SK. Therefore I think they would prefer to spread or stack. If they could prop up a second town wagon they might have been able to bait a PR claim. It's possible they tried that with VA, who's willingness to be voted out might have reduced the PR pool.
That moves Stan up and Hedin down for me, but I would like to check if any of the single votes had wagon potential / were thrown down after nin and VA were leading.
- Without a day chat, day 2 should have been scums worse day. Whatever plan / strategy they could have come up with at night was likely scuppered by Fanto being SK and sparks dying. Therefore scum likely had to adapt in broad daylight without their partners insights. Nothing stood out on my first read of the day (mostly got bummed out at the wave of replace outs) but I'd there's a slip I think that day should be weaker.
I'm gonna save that for personal use, lmao.
From what I've been following, malus hasn't misrepresented anything in his setup comments.
One of those days I should make a chart with completely made up data and see how many people notice.
I think that's too wide of a net to cast in most cases, especially when Scum is known to bus their teammates. Much more informative is the timing of a vote as well as the build up to it.
*Should read spread instead of stack (on Nin)
Alright I think this is just a terminology thing, I haven't seen people use confirmed town in the context of a vote on an unknown with no information around them.
Can you walk me through your day 2 vote on Leo once more though? You start the day thinking scum didn't stack on nin, you later put a vote down on VA/Leo. Near day end, you seem firm on the vote in the face of a tie. What were you thinking about feps and his claim (if anything) around this time?
When I asked you at the day yesterday you attributed the Leo vote to VA inactivity day 1, but feps wasn't much more active and Leo had been more active than VA had been day 2 and fit into the off nin-wagon theory. Did something change your mind to make you think scum did in fact stack on nin?
I finally made some vote charts
But as expected, with so few players it's not terribly useful.
I'm still not a fan of EC's vote record. He voted off wagon D1, which is a very common Scum strategy when it's TvT. On D2 he voted Leo right after Wizard brought Hedin into the race, so could be possible protection there. I also feel like he's trying to keep as many people as possible in the PoE with his suspicion on HP.
vote: EvilChameleon
I'm still not a fan of EC's vote record. He voted off wagon D1, which is a very common Scum strategy when it's TvT. On D2 he voted Leo right after Wizard brought Hedin into the race, so could be possible protection there. I also feel like he's trying to keep as many people as possible in the PoE with his suspicion on HP.
vote: EvilChameleon
Alright we're pretty close to the 24hr mark now.
It's small but I like that malus has thrown a vote down for once and his willingness to join a wagon with Stan this early makes me think that pairing is less likely.
I'd like EC to respond to what I asked when he has a chance.
I'm wondering if people weren't around to engage with my Hedin vote yesterday or if they didn't want to. I like that he has been more responsive and answering more thoroughly today, but I still see a vague lack of investment that has me a little worried he could be scum floating on the town vibes he's picked up.
Vote: MrHedin
It's small but I like that malus has thrown a vote down for once and his willingness to join a wagon with Stan this early makes me think that pairing is less likely.
I'd like EC to respond to what I asked when he has a chance.
I'm wondering if people weren't around to engage with my Hedin vote yesterday or if they didn't want to. I like that he has been more responsive and answering more thoroughly today, but I still see a vague lack of investment that has me a little worried he could be scum floating on the town vibes he's picked up.
Vote: MrHedin
finally got into the spirit of things, poyo
thanks for all this btw. i have trouble making sense of it all so this is a huge help
this is beautiful omg. gonna save it for later use lol
From what I've been following, malus hasn't misrepresented anything in his setup comments.
This is actually a good point re: nin vote D1. unless sparks did just on with scum!stan, scum are off-wagon somewhere and doing other things. that's still a good sized pile but it's better than nothing, yknow.
how come involving himself in other disputes is townie? which ones are you thinking/looking at?
also a good call about the D2 thing. was thinking that scum might have gotten their act together from D1 -> D2 since they could talk but having sparks explode in the morning might've thrown that completely out the window. i also have a hard time seeing anything that could say this as well since it focused so much on Eddy/FEPS/Monkey and i believe all are town/have flipped town. so scum could've been scrambling but they didnt have to worry about being caught.
earlier you mentioned you'd either go stan or hedin after EC. who would you go for in order? Stan > hedin? Hedin > Stan?I finally made some vote charts
But as expected, with so few players it's not terribly useful.
I'm still not a fan of EC's vote record. He voted off wagon D1, which is a very common Scum strategy when it's TvT. On D2 he voted Leo right after Wizard brought Hedin into the race, so could be possible protection there. I also feel like he's trying to keep as many people as possible in the PoE with his suspicion on HP.
vote: EvilChameleon
At the moment I'd go Hedin before Stan. Though that may just be because Stan appears to be a bit more in the background and isn't really rustling any feathers.