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Love Boat 3 Mafia |OT| This time it's Bearsonal
- Thread starter The Bear
- Start date
I have a question: what the heck is "NAI"?
Honestly, I'm just not seeing that much that stands out to me. Monkey vs. Sorian or Sorian vs. the World? All of that seems typical and what you'd expect going into this. People are starting to gang up on Stuart444 because of an apparent change in playstyle and terse posts, but there's nothing that makes it really seem scummy to me right now. B-Dubs' defense was basically a counter to suspicions purely based on meta.
CoolestSpot knowing—or making a game of not knowing—what's going on was odd. Apparently something that fits with what he's done before? How do you start playing without taking a look at your role PM?
The only one who truly stands out to me is Kitsunelaine. Erratic voting patterns with little substance (Sorian to follow the flow, Stuart444 to follow the flow, Rac because "no lynch" is the devil). Very defensive, and very confrontational, without much justification. Neither of those will ever get "passionate town" points from me again. Very intent on casting suspicion on others with the way people word things, like when she jumped the gun thinking Natiko said something Fandorin did, before taking some time to interpret what was actually going on around the quote.
Kalor, her partner, has been unremarkable, which also casts some doubt regarding her. Post activity is of no matter, but it's not town points to have the most by far.
The way I see it (and since I'm not good at meta reads), D1 votes are arbitrary—unless someone slips up—except for those with ulterior motives. So I don't think much of it right now. It could be meaningful later, but right now, it's just as notable as someone saying they're not going to vote team X because they town read them this early on.
Honestly, I'm just not seeing that much that stands out to me. Monkey vs. Sorian or Sorian vs. the World? All of that seems typical and what you'd expect going into this. People are starting to gang up on Stuart444 because of an apparent change in playstyle and terse posts, but there's nothing that makes it really seem scummy to me right now. B-Dubs' defense was basically a counter to suspicions purely based on meta.
CoolestSpot knowing—or making a game of not knowing—what's going on was odd. Apparently something that fits with what he's done before? How do you start playing without taking a look at your role PM?
The only one who truly stands out to me is Kitsunelaine. Erratic voting patterns with little substance (Sorian to follow the flow, Stuart444 to follow the flow, Rac because "no lynch" is the devil). Very defensive, and very confrontational, without much justification. Neither of those will ever get "passionate town" points from me again. Very intent on casting suspicion on others with the way people word things, like when she jumped the gun thinking Natiko said something Fandorin did, before taking some time to interpret what was actually going on around the quote.
Kalor, her partner, has been unremarkable, which also casts some doubt regarding her. Post activity is of no matter, but it's not town points to have the most by far.
What do you make of your partner's desire to look there?
FluxWaveZ it stands for "not alignment indicative"
Tips for Newbies Chapter 5
I think I'm gonna play without looking too much at who's partnered with who, and then be pleasantly surprised/completely distraught when I look at the list and find out that someone's partner reinforces my confirmation bias/completely denies my theories.
Not alignment-indicative.
Hmm, yes and no. I wanna see if Doc's posts make it worse or if they just keep the case as it is. Both being suspicious is a worse look for them than just one being that.
Ok, fair, I like that you say keep the case as it is and not makes the case weaker if monkey's posts make her look town.
Mornin fam. Still not feeling B-dubs so I went back to ISO his partner, the one and only. Just a few things of note I noticed.
At the time I thought Stu was justified in his concern, but he did little to move the game forward himself, so in hindsight it does come across as if those were just empty concerns. My problem lies with the fact that Sorian never returns to this notation he puts by Stu. He does briefly comment on his views of Stu as scum later, but it feels very passive and without much weight behind it.
This reads as NAI and is pretty much par for the course for both players.
I gave these "tips" the side eye initially, but it doesn't sit right with me just how much he was pressing them. It's not like Xbro is a new player, and Reki has a coach iirc. Feels like light bait imo.
Then there's the whole back and forth with Kitsu. There wasn't any point in getting so defensive of day one lunches (to the point of saying 40% of the time it's a viable strategy? wot?). Seemed like a lot of nothing going back and forth between the two, which is precisely what I said I personally hate about D1s. Gets us nowhere and only manages to inflate one's post count.
Sorian gonna Sorian, but without any lead up or significant follow through after the fact, it's hard to follow why or how he came to that vote in the first place. Wish I pressed him on this initially, because it comes across as the weak kind of early D1 vote that you drop cold turkey by the end of the day as if it never happened.
Clearly it was already stated, which is why I elaborated further to give my take on the matter since I was not here when he originally posted.
The game was at the four hour mark at the time of my post, and as others have stated, this game jumped out of the "day one joke phase" within an hour or so. That's plenty of time to do something more than being defensive and appealing to sympathy. I expect him to participate by doing anything beyond just that. If he's scared of shade being thrown his way, clearly there is content in the mix that is the source of said concern.
So two things, I'm not going to drop the tips shtick because I find it funny at this point and I'm curious how many i get to (and duh, I gave you a newbie tip too, at least two of these have been used as shade against people). Second, you realize Monkey and Stu are the same player effectively, my voting for Monkey is following up on Stu and my explanation on Stu justifies the vote even if it's in Monkey's name. Not sure how you can write it off as early day 1 nothing when I've literally harped on the point for most of the past 5 hours (and some last night).
I don't really think much of it. It's came up in our chat so it's not really a surprise. Focusing on different people potentially makes it easier to find scum, rather than always try to line up our views.
Let me rephrase since this felt very politician. Do you feel she's wrong? Are you unsure and want her to continue to see if anything happens? I was looking for more your read in light of her read.
Stuart444 I'm really at a loss for words at how you're approaching this game. I don't recall you being this passive in the last game we played together, and doubling down on it solves nothing. Do you have any reads at all on people outside of Kitsu? Why are you choosing to fold under pressure rather than taking a different approach if your current one clearly isn't helping your case?
A different approach will just lead to accusations of trying to please people (has happened in the past) or "Oh, this is an unnatural shift in gameplay". Damned if you do, damned if you don't.
As for reads. Not really. At least not yet...
If I got this right day 1 is normally reduced to vote a lunch out of barely nothing - and chances of hitting mafia are super low - but any post could be useful after seeing some flips later in the game, right?
Taking notes of the last few pages got really messy, so I decided to just focus on one couple at a time instead. As of post #800, Monkey and Stu's stuff (nothing against you, I just had to choose someone and you're currently the most voted pair);
First thing that stood out to me is that they seem to post at different times. Search results show a lot of posts from Stu, then some from Monkey, Stu, etc. Funny thing is, the last post from a Stu "block" is just 15 minutes apart of Monkey's "block start", so they're not that separated. Not that it could be useful but I felt like pointing it out.
It also seems like Stu prefers one-liners and direct answers while Monkey's writting style is longer.
Monkey:
This has been discussed to death already, but Monkey doubling down on Sorian if there's nothing shady from someone else seems a bit... too much? I'm aware of the meme, but it's just that, a meme. Although I'm not a fan of aggressive playstyles, Verelios seem to think that it's NAI for Sorian, and I agree. It also leads to solving the game by focusing on the smallest things, so it'd be good to have them around (if they aren't mafia, that is).
Then she starts raising suspicion towards others;
She also mentions a bunch of lower-activity couples as "feeling towniest". There's little to judge from gut reads, but it could be a way of gaining trust from those players. My partner already asked why, waiting for the answer (although it could be already answered by the time I post this).
Post #770 looks nice though, actively asking for low-poster players to weight in. By the way I'll answer a bit later Monkey, just wanted to mention this here.
Stu:
It seems like the "no newbie lunch day 1" is an unwritten rule, and the self-concious Stu post about it ignited the discussion. I'd feel kind of responsible for him flipping town after being lunched for that post, but there's luckily other stuff to go after.
Posts #533, #540 and #549 feel a bit too defensive, which could indicate a PR or mafia-alignment. I know you asked me to not speak about that (really sorry!) but that was also Stu's thing at the end of Mansion.
I do believe his posts about wanting to start meaningful conversation though. It may not make a lot of sense right now but it could be useful later in the game.
Last two hours look like a frustrated/almost resigned Stu;
I'd probably feel the same, but if he was mafia there would be more to his posts than just this. Like a coordinated gambit to save the couple. Or maybe it's just distancing? Unsure about that. (thank you Sorian for the explanation).
By the way Stuart444; sleeping is good for you (in the most friendly manner I mean, just noticed this could be misread).
Finally, and just to be clear, I don't think there's enough reason to believe neither of them are mafia. It's just that, going by the little we have, you need to make a big deal out of any particular post. And to be completely honest, they've been super nice to me in the past, so I don't really want to think of them as the bears that want to destroy the love ship.
Side-note: I had to go to OT5 and search for individual posts to find the preferred nicks. Is there any place where I can find them all?
Taking notes of the last few pages got really messy, so I decided to just focus on one couple at a time instead. As of post #800, Monkey and Stu's stuff (nothing against you, I just had to choose someone and you're currently the most voted pair);
First thing that stood out to me is that they seem to post at different times. Search results show a lot of posts from Stu, then some from Monkey, Stu, etc. Funny thing is, the last post from a Stu "block" is just 15 minutes apart of Monkey's "block start", so they're not that separated. Not that it could be useful but I felt like pointing it out.
It also seems like Stu prefers one-liners and direct answers while Monkey's writting style is longer.
Monkey:
This has been discussed to death already, but Monkey doubling down on Sorian if there's nothing shady from someone else seems a bit... too much? I'm aware of the meme, but it's just that, a meme. Although I'm not a fan of aggressive playstyles, Verelios seem to think that it's NAI for Sorian, and I agree. It also leads to solving the game by focusing on the smallest things, so it'd be good to have them around (if they aren't mafia, that is).
Then she starts raising suspicion towards others;
(Later saying "I don't want to pile since others could hide", so actually not commiting?)
The first one could be read as just self-defense, the second as a cautious approach due to some past game in which her trust was misplaced. But she could also, from a mafia perspective, be searching for other targets since the Sorian train didn't work that well.
She also mentions a bunch of lower-activity couples as "feeling towniest". There's little to judge from gut reads, but it could be a way of gaining trust from those players. My partner already asked why, waiting for the answer (although it could be already answered by the time I post this).
Post #770 looks nice though, actively asking for low-poster players to weight in. By the way I'll answer a bit later Monkey, just wanted to mention this here.
Stu:
It seems like the "no newbie lunch day 1" is an unwritten rule, and the self-concious Stu post about it ignited the discussion. I'd feel kind of responsible for him flipping town after being lunched for that post, but there's luckily other stuff to go after.
Posts #533, #540 and #549 feel a bit too defensive, which could indicate a PR or mafia-alignment. I know you asked me to not speak about that (really sorry!) but that was also Stu's thing at the end of Mansion.
I do believe his posts about wanting to start meaningful conversation though. It may not make a lot of sense right now but it could be useful later in the game.
Last two hours look like a frustrated/almost resigned Stu;
I'd probably feel the same, but if he was mafia there would be more to his posts than just this. Like a coordinated gambit to save the couple. Or maybe it's just distancing? Unsure about that. (thank you Sorian for the explanation).
By the way Stuart444; sleeping is good for you (in the most friendly manner I mean, just noticed this could be misread).
Finally, and just to be clear, I don't think there's enough reason to believe neither of them are mafia. It's just that, going by the little we have, you need to make a big deal out of any particular post. And to be completely honest, they've been super nice to me in the past, so I don't really want to think of them as the bears that want to destroy the love ship.
Side-note: I had to go to OT5 and search for individual posts to find the preferred nicks. Is there any place where I can find them all?
Who cares what other people think. If it gets you lynched, at least you get lynched playing with an approach you'd rather play with. That shift in attitude has worked out well for me over the years.
We are on different timezones tbf. And we both have our own stuff irl soo...
I've seen people vote for newbies D1, sometimes having the highest or second highest vote near EOD before EOD shenanigans happen.
that said, it's not the first nor the last time I'll post something early without any prompting whatsoever lol.
I have health issues which gives me issues sleeping but thanks for the concern <3.
Side note: I like this post, some real thought put into it.
I mean I already responded to the flaw in your "newbie tips" so it ain't applicable to me. Anyway, on Monkey I ISO'd you based on the posts up to the point I left off, so I didn't tackle material from this morning. But even going back and briefly skimming over your posts, you didn't hammer it home nearly as much as you''re implying here.
SkyOdin i could have elaborated that the reason I'm scum reading Monkey is because she hasn't engaged with me or my role claim bullshit from day start but honestly, if you think the thing with Kits was theatrics then you would have said the same there and at the end of the day, it doesn't matter. I only need to find and point out scum in one of the partners, the thing I see in Monkey is less explainable without meta and our history.[/QUOTE]
This comes across as the thesis for your argument. This is a 32 person game, so why are you concerned with her targeting you specifically? Seems like a weird way to throw shade. And I know Stu and Monkey are partners, hence the implication that it was a weak push to begin with that I doubt you'll continue with by the end of D1.
btw I *am* awake now but I barely got any sleep and it's like 5AM so I'm reading and mulling over what I'm seeing, I'm just not really in a state to contribute
If people call you out for not engaging and then your response is to engage with a concerted effort moving forward, that isn't grounds for someone viewing you as scum. A defeatist approach is what isn't acceptable. I'm getting heavy "woe is me" vibes from you right now.
Stuart is really good at this game, but I've noticed he tends to come out of the gate rough sometimes. His posting is weird, but I've seen town Stuart be kind of weird and get super scum read on day 1 before. Dude is also on a team with Monkey, another very good player and I actually like her posts today.
The arguments against them just kind of feel like the usual day one arguments to me and I'm not super convinced on them. A town Monkey and Stuart will be super useful to town later down the line and I feel like it'll be really obvious if they're scum or not if we just leave them around for a bit. I want good town players later in the game. Monkey and Stuart are good town players.
Honestly, while I agree with you in principle, that's rarely been how it's worked in practice, at least from my (admittedly poor) Mafia memory.
Not going to quote you Terraforce since you killed those quote tags but yes, I didn't talk about Monkey yesterday by design, my scum read on her has to do with (again) meta in regards to interactions between her and I and what I think is oddly absent here. That isn't the "thesis" of my argument, that was a courtesy since SkyOdin seemed to care about what that post was referring to. For the public, I think you should vote Stuart because his play thus far has been fumbling an attempt to control game flow and then a mixture of a pity party and a vote that I don't believe he actually believes in.
Btw sorry if this seems dismissive but honestly, I can't say much to someone saying they are getting "woe is me vibes".
Independent of my current reads, since when has late game scum Monkey ever been "really obvious" to the average MafiEra player?
I thought of that, but then, as i said, your "blocks" had little time between them. It's probably nothing so I don't want to drag it any further though.
By the way if you're not really enjoying yourself now, why don't you try and read a low-activity poster? I know you said you have no reads, but just go and pick someone you have yet to put more thought into.
It is! Except that one time, like years ago, when I played IRL. Although that's a whole different thing.
And please be brutally honest; are my comments that bad?
Pirate Bae any new thoughts?
TheChuggernaut anything sticking out to you?
flatearthpandas would also like to hear any of your thoughts.
------------------
As for myself, I will get an early reads list out soon enough as we get closer to the 24 hour mark.
TheChuggernaut anything sticking out to you?
flatearthpandas would also like to hear any of your thoughts.
------------------
As for myself, I will get an early reads list out soon enough as we get closer to the 24 hour mark.
I feel like Stuart is going to be the more obvious of the two, to be fair
I usually do that later in the day phase. I like to give even lower activity players more than 24 hours before I poke around at them haha.
TheChuggernaut What's your read on Sorian?
You didn't asked me but I will answer anyway: No, they aren't. I don't agree with all of them but they are good anyway.
You didn't asked me but I will answer anyway: No, they aren't. I don't agree with all of them but they are good anyway.
Honestly it all seems like a bunch of noise to me still. I'm not really convinced to vote for anyone with a good amount of votes on them yet.
No, your comments are fine, I'm more pinged because that post felt like a mixture of new player interspersed with someone who knows a bit of our meta.
I was telling my partner yesterday that I need to look through his post again so he's a null for now. I feel okay about B-Dubs through and I might catch flak for this read, but he comes across as an inexperienced townie who's trying to avoid dying on day 1 again and bumbled it because of that
That's actually fair.
Thank you. And that's because I've been around since last season started. Spec chat can get you a lot of meta tips.
Just going to throw Reki and Xbro in the town pile. Xbro has been pretty absent, but Reki still threw out a huge, huge post to just read one pair. That's a ton of work and if Reki had a bunch of scummates to plan with I don't think they would have felt the need to do so much analysis.
Fair, that actually explains it in an innocuous way, I didn't realize that was the case, nvm on my thoughts then.
That's what I was referring to by "thesis." That post you literally said "I'm scum reading Monkey is because she hasn't engaged with me or my role claim bullshit from day start." That's essentially what you just explained to me here, "meta in regards to interactions" and a sense of "absen[ce]" in response to your behavior.
I have similar thoughts on you/B-dubs as I do with Stu/Monkey. I feel one side feels scummy (B-dubs/Stu) and the other side less so, but I'm mixed on and don't feel either of you have done favors for yourselves thus far. But clearly we aren't even halfway done with D1 so it still feels very premature. It's why I've refrained from voting either Bdubs or Stu for the time being.
That being said, I'll at least retract my initial vote. No significant thoughts on Coolest yet so no reason to keep that joke vote. Let's see where this one goes.
Vote: Ty4on I've liked some of the comments you've made, but you've been incredibly passive and more elusive than I've seen in prior games. Come out and play mate.
You're really gonna blow up LP's spot like that? Damn. Talking about coasting under the radar, since you brought it up which pairs do you think it applies to?
Loyalty.
It's well thought out and backed with reasoning so it's gucci.
I don't know. I love Stu but as town he can sometimes be really weird in early to mid game which will probably make it harder to tell from him if they're scum.
But B-Dubs isn't a new player. This is his 5th game and he was town in 3 of the 4 games before this one (the player's spreadsheet says he was replaced in Brexit 2 but don't know how long he played or his aligment so I'm not counting that).