Ok. I'm preparing this post beforehand while we are waiting through the night phase. Hopefully I didn't get killed and I'm able to post this (Yay!!!). I'll be posting this as soon as the day begins, so I'll adress any night changes in a later post.
Finally, I have information to chew on.
So. The Anex wagon. Let's talk about that, shall we?
These were the people who voted for Anex:
Maolfunction / Maol -
#560
HPSauce / HP -
#1,083
TheChuggernaut / Chugg -
#1,098
Sawneeks / Sneeks -
#1,111
Randomless / Ran -
#1,157
c4e5g3d5 / c4 -
#1,203
Hawthorn -
#1,256
Sorian -
#1,375
Stantastic / Stan -
#1,403
Neki -
#1,406
I'm not listing Saw's and C4's previous posts to keep this cleaner.
That's 50% of the players. By mere probability there was surely a scum (or more) in there.
Out of these, I don't see us getting too much information out of both Neki and Stan, given that they voted during the last minutes of the day. Stan, in particular missed almost all of the dayphase (because timezones, understandable), and just folloed the bandwagon.
Sorian is w/e, he already said he was neutral and we'll presumably get confirmation of his ability via Chugg. I see no point for the time being in prodding here.
Out of the 7 remaining, the one that pings my radar the most (so to speak) is Hawthorn.
Her first post of note is her initial list of reads which has already been discussed before.
I town read HP. I find Maol, Random, and Ephi to be very good town players, so I don't want to vote them out D1, and so far their posts today have backed this up, though it's not enough for a full town read. I've moved past finding that one vote on HP suspicious from Random-- I think it was clearly when reading the surrounding posts that it was just a meta-reference to the last name. LP hasn't posted much, as usual, but I often find his posts helpful on later days if he's town, so since I have nothing against him I wouldn't vote him out D1.
Of my short list, I would probably order it:
1. Sparks
2. EC
3. Fate
4. Chuggernaut
5. neki
6. anex
However I'm not going to vote until I see more of how the day plays out
This was immideately responded with pushback by Chugg c4 and Sorian due to the weak reasoning. After that the topic was dropeed while the players focused their attention elsewhere. She then voted for EC at roughly the halfway point of Day 1.
Later on she seemingly changes her view on LP (post # 721) and writes up her reads on both him and Anex (which, by that point were beginning to be discussed more).
Share the concern over LP's generalized suspicion. Particularly his "everyone's too chummy" thing which he's now doubled down on. This is bad because he's not directing his suspicion, not explaining why certain players are particularly too trusting in a suspicious way, just releasing a general cloud of "things feel suspicious, let's encourage an atmosphere of distrust and paranoia". Classic mafia behavior.
The case on anex -- I can kind of see it. Only kind of. He was in my PoE, but it feels attenuated, and a bit jumping on his unusual style i.e. not performing the stereotype of "town" behavior. Will reread him if by some miracle I have time tomorrow, and would vote for him vs anyone outside of my voting pool.
After that she votes for LP despite her previous claims. This is before the Anex wagon even existed, at the time (and including Anex's vote on LP) the votes were tied 3 ways between Anex, Haw and LP.
And then, neqaring the end of the day (but not during the end-end of day) she changes votes for Anex because of his claim.
vote: anexanhume
I don't care about this being a significant character. It's not at all without precedent for gamerunners to give mafia fake claims that include main characters. This is such an easy fake claim, after all that fanfare, that it's tipped it over the edge for me. I'll switch back if anex elaborates & it's convincing, but I'm not buying it.
Given the direction the discussion was going to, this change of vote could be seen as understandable. But I have the feeling that her first vote on LP before was to remove attention from herself and move discussion onto anex/LP. The jump onto Anex's wagon seems like a not too early - not too late vote that seemed too convenient to make when discussion was at an all time high, without risk of being accused of hammering.
FoS: Hawthorn.
Now. The other player I want to discuss is HP. Granted, scumdar is pinging less on him. But does anyone else feel like his contributions on day 1 were... kinda flat?
The biggest contributions I could find from him were his post roundups (which, honestly, kinda feel like a small smopkescreen to seem helpful), and his adamant refusal to vote inactives (which, granted, I also participated in) resulting in his vote against Anex.
He also said he was going to post a read list, but never did (this could be because of real life, so I don't think this is that important).
For such a flat performance, I'm surprised many people read HP as a townie. Even I said that HP seemed townie. But now I'm not so sure.
In particular, I'd like to point out Anex's take on this:
I'm done for today. Going to do some homework and workout. Good luck town if I'm not back tomorrow.
I'd look at HP. Already is coasting on the goodwill of his chronology posts, casting doubt on everyone suggesting policy votes, and then he favors voting for people who have more interactions but then doesn't actually commit to a vote. Don't let him skate yet again.
FoS: HP.
I don't have many comments on the other players on the wagon. Random and C4 do appear like genuine townies. Chuggs seems talkative and protownish. And I need to reread Saw and Maol.
Let's see the other mayor wagon of yesterday. LP's wagon consisted of the following players:
Hawthorn - #835-#1,256
- 💀
Anexanhume / Anex - #863-#1,128
- jman1954goat / Jman - #1,002
- Ephidel / Ephi - #1,027
- EzekelRAGE - #1,052
I'm keeping Haw's vote here to illustrate her voting patterns
Now here is the other biggest wagon that formed yesterday. There could be scum hiding here as well. Out of the three remaining voters, I'm not seeing much. None of them strike me as inconsistent. And I don't know what to make of Zeke yet. jman in particular has little to go on besides the whole baiting me thing he did when I asked about night activity clarification.
Ephi was kinda against my initial Haw analysis response to Chugg. But She actually seemed to support Anex.So I think that is just town play.
I do agree with previous posts that the reasons to vote LP later on were kinda weak, and the three posters mentioned above gave little to no explanation. Maybe a reason to keep an eye on them.
Besides the two main wagons, I'd like to point out the following:
1.- LP pretty much disappeared when his bandwagon was starting (he was around three votes at the time). Him offering no further comment kinda muddies the waters around him, so to speak. He was the only one to not vote, so that leaves us with little information about him besides the meta reads (which I can't comment on). His absence makes me a little suspicious, but it could be real life.
2.- Chesire's vote on Sorian near the EoD was interesting in that she used it supposedly to "try and gauge reactions", but nothing ever came out of it. Was this a poor attempt to start a wagon against Sorian at the time Anex was suggesting it? If Chesire was scum, it could be seen as an attempt to say that she was active votewise during EoD while remaining free of the wagon.
3.- Fate remained steadfast on his vote against Haw. We'll have to see what Hedin has to say about the day before coming to any conclusions. I'll reread his posts later.
4.- FDS and EC give little to no information to go on with their votes. FDS claim is also kinda funky.
Given what I've explained above, my current biggest suspicions fall on the following (in order, from most, to least):
- Hawthorn
- HP
- CheshireCat
- LP
I won't vote until we later on when we have a discussion going.
Of course, this analysis is subject to change given the results of N1, but I'll get there when I get there.
Ok. That is enough for now. Going to go back to Anex's posts to see if I can find something else.
Addendum:
It means Neon's said some things that I think implied he knew Hawthorn and LP weren't wolves
Also C4, bringing back this because I'd like to know what made you think this. As in, what did I say?