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Of the Democratic Presidential Candidates so far, who has the best chance of winning the election?
- Thread starter BWoog
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Of the declared only Harris and Warren have any shot of getting through the primary and Warren had that huge self inflicted L. So Harris for me.
Impossible to tell when your election cycle lasts half a term. Pretty much the top candidates have an equal shot, but that's it.
Of those who have announced they're running, Harris. But I see a lot of potential in Beto and I think he'll come off as more likable than Harris.
Who would I like to win? Harris.
But my feelingis she's going to struggle with the EC in a similar way Clinton did unless things take a dramatic turn (i.e. misogynists and racists)
Warren is fine and would probably be a great prez... I just don't think she's done enough to make her case yet, and Trump has done the work to hit her brand (... fucking dude needs to die)
But my feelingis she's going to struggle with the EC in a similar way Clinton did unless things take a dramatic turn (i.e. misogynists and racists)
Warren is fine and would probably be a great prez... I just don't think she's done enough to make her case yet, and Trump has done the work to hit her brand (... fucking dude needs to die)
Hot take: literally any of them. Consider that Hillary had:
-a terrible ground game
-decades of hate
-the Comey letter
And still only barely managed to lose when Trump's approval was way higher than it is right now. I'd say that anyone who's announced right now would wreck him as long as they actually bother to hit the rust belt. Even Tulsi.
-a terrible ground game
-decades of hate
-the Comey letter
And still only barely managed to lose when Trump's approval was way higher than it is right now. I'd say that anyone who's announced right now would wreck him as long as they actually bother to hit the rust belt. Even Tulsi.
Sherrod Brown is probably the only democrat who puts Ohio back on the EC map and is most in tune with Midwest politics, which is where the election will be either lost or won so probably him
Downsides, we lose a senate seat and probably puts taking back the senate out of reach so even if we win we lose
Downsides, we lose a senate seat and probably puts taking back the senate out of reach so even if we win we lose
All of them have a big leg-up in that they're going against a historically unpopular president with a highly activated voter base. There's no Hillary this time, and there's no "blank slate" to project onto for Trump, we know what he is as president (besides an embarrassment and crook), which is the same old establishment far right Republican.
Harris or Warren are probably the strongest announced candidates, Beto if he runs, too. Biden on paper, but he has huge issues, far bigger than the other potential candidates.
Harris or Warren are probably the strongest announced candidates, Beto if he runs, too. Biden on paper, but he has huge issues, far bigger than the other potential candidates.
biden Harris would be amazing and likely an EC slam dunk. It would also do wonders to help Harris with an EC win in either 2024 or 2028.
This is all pointless speculation until people finish entering the race, time passes, and more comprehensive polls start being done.
If electability is an important attribute for you in a candidate, you should be looking at hard data. Not speculating. If you speculate, you are nearly guaranteed to make some very wrong assumptions.
If electability is an important attribute for you in a candidate, you should be looking at hard data. Not speculating. If you speculate, you are nearly guaranteed to make some very wrong assumptions.
Too early to tell.
My daily reminder that in 2015, Trump was not mentioned on any lists of likely Republican nominees, let alone people with an actual chance to win the election. In a post-mid-term list of every possible potential candidate, Politico or The Hill, or w/e had a list of "the top 55 likely Republican nominees," and Trump was mentioned at #53 along with like JOhn McAfee
"Eight long shot republican nominees" - http://time.com/3684425/long-shot-republican-president-2016/
(No mention of Trump)
"16 Potential candidates to watch for in 2016" - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/16-potential-candidates-watch-2016-n272141
(No mention of Trump)
"Who's most likely to be the nominee in the Republican primary?" - https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...c4814dfa9d7_story.html?utm_term=.9a3464bc9c50
(10 candidates, No mention of Trump)
"20 Republican wannabes to watch for" - https://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2016-elections-republicans-to-watch-113014
(No mention of Trump)
"7 Crazy Republican Candidates to Watch in 2016" - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wo...midterms-seven-crazy-candidates-to-watch.html
(No mention of Trump)
... and it goes on like this
My daily reminder that in 2015, Trump was not mentioned on any lists of likely Republican nominees, let alone people with an actual chance to win the election. In a post-mid-term list of every possible potential candidate, Politico or The Hill, or w/e had a list of "the top 55 likely Republican nominees," and Trump was mentioned at #53 along with like JOhn McAfee
"Eight long shot republican nominees" - http://time.com/3684425/long-shot-republican-president-2016/
(No mention of Trump)
"16 Potential candidates to watch for in 2016" - https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elections/16-potential-candidates-watch-2016-n272141
(No mention of Trump)
"Who's most likely to be the nominee in the Republican primary?" - https://www.washingtonpost.com/poli...c4814dfa9d7_story.html?utm_term=.9a3464bc9c50
(10 candidates, No mention of Trump)
"20 Republican wannabes to watch for" - https://www.politico.com/story/2014/11/2016-elections-republicans-to-watch-113014
(No mention of Trump)
"7 Crazy Republican Candidates to Watch in 2016" - https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/wo...midterms-seven-crazy-candidates-to-watch.html
(No mention of Trump)
... and it goes on like this
The only honest answer is no one knows. But if I'm pontificating:
I would say Kamala Harris.
I think there's a pattern in recent presidential races that steers me away from saying Biden or Sherrod Brown. Most people tout those names because they're candidates who could relate to and steal away Trump voters. They're considered "safe". But the pattern in presidential politics seems to be that if you want to win, you should run a candidate who's the polar opposite of the person you're running against. For instance:
-the backlash against ethically dubious, playboy Bill Clinton was to go for the folksy, "family values" touting George W Bush.
-the backlash against bumbling, dumb as rocks George W was to elect someone smart, oratorically gifted and charismatic. Not to mention W totally fumbled Katrina, leading to Kanye's "George Bush doesn't care about black people" statement that I'm sure planted a seed in some minds that maybe we should stop letting mediocre white dudes steer the ship.
-the backlash against cool, calm and collected Obama was to elect someone brash, emotional, easily angered and who weaponized their whiteness as a direct response to Obama being black.
So when I look at who will win in 2020, I don't take the approach of "who is most like Trump while not being Trump" but rather of who is the furthest removed from Trump? Who is the equal but opposite reaction to him, so to speak? I think that is probably Kamala Harris.
I would say Kamala Harris.
I think there's a pattern in recent presidential races that steers me away from saying Biden or Sherrod Brown. Most people tout those names because they're candidates who could relate to and steal away Trump voters. They're considered "safe". But the pattern in presidential politics seems to be that if you want to win, you should run a candidate who's the polar opposite of the person you're running against. For instance:
-the backlash against ethically dubious, playboy Bill Clinton was to go for the folksy, "family values" touting George W Bush.
-the backlash against bumbling, dumb as rocks George W was to elect someone smart, oratorically gifted and charismatic. Not to mention W totally fumbled Katrina, leading to Kanye's "George Bush doesn't care about black people" statement that I'm sure planted a seed in some minds that maybe we should stop letting mediocre white dudes steer the ship.
-the backlash against cool, calm and collected Obama was to elect someone brash, emotional, easily angered and who weaponized their whiteness as a direct response to Obama being black.
So when I look at who will win in 2020, I don't take the approach of "who is most like Trump while not being Trump" but rather of who is the furthest removed from Trump? Who is the equal but opposite reaction to him, so to speak? I think that is probably Kamala Harris.
Not only that, but coming up with VP picks this far out is ludicrous and way beyond the marginal impact of any VP pick.
I'm the first to say that his views are mischaracterized because he voted for Trump, leading most to assume he's some blue dog before quickly moving on, but I really don't think he would have the widespread national appeal necessary to win.
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