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MekaMachine

Banned
Sep 17, 2020
241
www.politico.com

‘Dumpster fire’: House Democrats trade blame after Tuesday’s damage

Some in the party questioned the tactics at the top, with several Democrats demanding an overhaul within the DCCC.

It's looking like Biden will cement his electoral college victory today, so I think it's time to start looking at how he'll govern.
There's no arguing that the election wasn't a huge disappointment for the DCCC, are we thinking that there are going to be shakeups in leadership?

A few quotes from the article

Centrist Blue dogs are pinning results on "socialism"
"Several centrist Democrats blamed their more progressive colleagues, saying moderates in Trump-leaning districts couldn't escape their "socialist" shadow"

While the Progressives had this to say:
"Several Democrats said the party operation was not focused on a cohesive, proactive message that went beyond simply opposing Trump, who proved to remain popular in many districts. And some said DCCC wasted time battling the party's left flank with its contentious policies designed to stymie primary challengers."

Who is right? More importantly, who'll impact the almost guaranteed contested speaker race more?
 

Parthenios

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
13,634
My current 2020 takeaways:

-Trump is super popular and "inspiring" in an almost neg-Obama sort of way (2016 wasn't just racists and apathetic voters looking for change)

-Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2018, so Democrat enthusiasm won them a bunch of seats beyond what was normally achievable

-Trump was on the ballot in 2020, so some of those marginal seats went back to Republicans

Seems pretty straightforward.

The real question is, did Trump cause Republicans to overperform in 2020, and will that blunt 2022 midterm losses for Democrats if Biden wins?
 
OP
OP
MekaMachine

MekaMachine

Banned
Sep 17, 2020
241
My current 2020 takeaways:

-Trump is super popular and "inspiring" in an almost neg-Obama sort of way (2016 wasn't just racists and apathetic voters looking for change)

-Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2018, so Democrat enthusiasm won them a bunch of seats beyond what was normally achievable

-Trump was on the ballot in 2020, so some of those marginal seats went back to Republicans

Seems pretty straightforward.

The real question is, did Trump cause Republicans to overperform in 2020, and will that blunt 2022 midterm losses for Democrats if Biden wins?
I agree with this, but the same can be said on the Democratic side no? Are we ever going to see this turnout again without Trump drumming up our base?

I mean the entire campaign was predicated on getting Trump out, what do Dems have to motivate voters in 2022? At least the Rep's have a Martyr in Trump and the natural gain from being the opposition party in the midterm.
 

The Albatross

Member
Oct 25, 2017
39,189
I think we need a few more days of tallies to really come up with a firm post mortem. By this time in 2018 it was clear that Democrats had successfully won the house, but even just 1-2 days later it was like "Well, it was a win, but ... not as big as we thought it might be," and then about 12 races came in the ensuing days, Democrats won the majority of them, and it became clear that it was a historic flip. Right now 2020 is looking like a net of 5 seats for Republicans in the House, and the two races that really sting are the lost Florida seats lost narrowly by 2-3% which tracks along side the general election, and the Iowa seat, which again tracks Trump's strong performance in Iowa.

At this point the narrative follows the rest of the country. Trump over-performed in just about every state, every district, every race, and that ended up pulling Republicans up with him. Far from being an anchor on the House and Senate, he seemed to bouy many races with higher Republican turnout than in 2016 and 2018. BUt, again, it's not going to be a clear picture until the weekend or just after.
 

Parthenios

The Fallen
Oct 28, 2017
13,634
I agree with this, but the same can be said on the Democratic side no? Are we ever going to see this turnout again without Trump drumming up our base?

I mean the entire campaign was predicated on getting Trump out, what do Dems have to motivate voters in 2022? At least the Rep's have a Martyr in Trump and the natural gain from being the opposition party in the midterm.
Sure, but I think that's already pre-baked into expectations (it's one of the contributing factors why Presidents lose midterms).
 

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,913
Politico really loves their shit stirring articles.
 

Eoin

Member
Oct 27, 2017
7,107
Democrats everywhere need to figure out how to deal with the fact that Republicans are going to label them as socialist.

The political stance of the Democrat in question is irrelevant. The political stance of other specific Democrats, small well-known groups of Democrats or the Democrats as a whole is also irrelevant.

Labelling Democrats as socialists is just a core attribute of Republicans now.
 

Volimar

volunteer forum janitor
Member
Oct 25, 2017
38,913
Yes, the results certainly show that no examination of the DCCC is required, a resounding success. Anything else is just shit stirring!


I think some of you are so used to fighting that you see opponents everywhere. I never said that the party didn't need introspection. My post was a criticism of Politico, not the subject of the article. I'd prefer you not twist my words to an unintended extreme. In the future, if you are unsure of my meaning, feel free to just ask.
 

iksenpets

Member
Oct 26, 2017
6,531
Dallas, TX
My current 2020 takeaways:

-Trump is super popular and "inspiring" in an almost neg-Obama sort of way (2016 wasn't just racists and apathetic voters looking for change)

-Trump wasn't on the ballot in 2018, so Democrat enthusiasm won them a bunch of seats beyond what was normally achievable

-Trump was on the ballot in 2020, so some of those marginal seats went back to Republicans

Seems pretty straightforward.

The real question is, did Trump cause Republicans to overperform in 2020, and will that blunt 2022 midterm losses for Democrats if Biden wins?

This is where I'm at. It's hard for me to point to some obvious Dem strategic error when every Dem candidate up and down the ballot is pretty easily cracking all time vote totals for their district. There was no lack of mobilization in any part of the base. There were no defections. There just wasn't anything to counter Trump creating a few million new GOP voters.

The lesson seems to be to hope that those voters go back to staying home post-Trump, and that maybe you really should be picking your Presidential candidate with more of an eye to their celebrity factor than getting into nitpicking policy for fighting left versus liberal. Like, we may need to reconceptualize Obama's wins to put more emphasis on the quasi-rockstar persona than on any particular bit of policy. It really may come down to top-of-the-ticket showmanship more than anything else.

The only potential tactical thing I can think of is maybe it really did payoff for the GOP to throw covid caution to the wind and continue door-to-door canvassing. Respecting people's health by keeping it to phone and text may really have prevented us from finding out own crop of new voters to counter this with. But that's also not likely to be a problem that'll reproduce in future cycles.
 

The Albatross

Member
Oct 25, 2017
39,189
My postmortem on the House:
  • less corporate dems after election
  • 2 more progressive dems after election
  • A small move in the right direction

Calling all Democrats in rural/suburban areas "Corporate dems" is a pointlessly divisive and wrong moniker. It's a bad take.

Democrats lost seats in Florida (2), Iowa (1), South Carolina (1), Texas (1), Michigan (1), New Mexico (1), and Oklahoma (1). So far Democrats flipped two seats in North Carolina. The votes are still being counted, though, and we don't know the final tally.

Florida, Iowa, S. Carolina, Texas, and Oklahoma are all states won two elections in a row by Donald Trump. The two seats Democrats flipped are in North Carolina suburbs which narrowly went to Trump.

These are suburban to rural conservative Trump districts. These aren't "Corporate Dems," they're rural or suburban Democrats, where the votes simply aren't there for progressive issues that win in, for instance, my progressive Massachusetts House District, or in Brooklyn. Saying that it's good that Democrats lose these seats is suggesting that it's good for Republicans to have a house majority rather than Democrats, because there are far more center-right House districts than there are center left and progressive house districts.

If our mentality is "Good! We don't need the suburbs!" then there's a couple results of that:
  • The progressive legislation that comes out of my urban Massachusetts district will never get a vote in the House. The legislation won't even be written because of the next point:
  • And equally important to legislation, those progressive Democrats like, say, Ayanna Pressley or AOC, will never be on House committees because Democrats won't have the majority in those committees.
The second point is one that seems lost on a lot of people who hate suburban or working class rural Democrats. The reason AOC is on 5 important House committees is because Democrats won 43 suburban, conservative seats in 2018. When Democrats lose some of those seats in 2020 and then perhaps in 2022, then they lose those open spaces on committees and AOC gets replaced on the Environmental committee with some Republican who takes snowballs onto the House floor to say that Climate Change isn't real.

Legislation starts in committee. House investigations start in committee. AOC is also on the House finance committee, and she's a junior member so her place on that committee is most at risk. If there's financial abuse that House Finance committee Democrats want to investigate, and if you want AOC to be the one asking questions to some corrupt bankers who are fucking over working class Americans with predatory loans, when you lose those 8 "Corporate dem seats," AOC is likely to get replaced with some senior Republican who voted "No" on Dodd-Frank. The reason she's on that committee now is because Democrats flipped 43 former Republican seats in previously conservative districts. When you lose those seats, you lose the committee assignments that come with them and Republicans get to pick up Democrats from those committees.

So, no, it's never good to lose seats to Republicans. Losing to Republicans is not moving in the right direction. It's fine to look for silver linings, but losing seats means less progressive legislation, not more. It means less progressive influence in the house, not more.
 
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krazen

Member
Oct 27, 2017
13,313
Gentrified Brooklyn
Said this in another post, but Ill elaborate here since it's a hot take.

We need to face that the GOP has done an impossible to fix brainwashing of the country, 48% to be exact. You've got decades of propaganda and even if a good faith drive was made to de-programming these assholes it would take years and multiple presidential elections we dont have.

We've got a new generation of racist white americans coming in right behind them, and it's spreading to minoriites who feel they will do well by being white adjacent.

So it's one of two things imho if we had to be brutally honest.

1)The Dems gets its own populist candidate, a la Bernie, and actually rallies behind it as opposed to being afraid. I would even say add a healthy dose of propaganda because Americans love that.

2)The Dems faces the fact it's a minority in a right wing nation, realize their big wins was when they acted more like 'GOP-lite' and go back to that era much to the chagrin of the minorities like me who kept it afloat. We will still bleed, but at least it will be a slow one.

You chose one of those two, break up media conglomerates and hope Murdoch's kids don't go the same route, regulate social media for feeding factually untrue propaganda...maybe the next generation of American's are only 25% racist facist.
 

KingK

Member
Oct 27, 2017
4,874
I definitely think the Dems marketing/messaging was weak as fuck this election. My initial read is that the progressives are right, and the lack of a coherent policy message hurt.

It doesn't matter what you support on your website or in the party platform. What matters is what you push in your marketing materials and messaging. Ask the average person and they'll have no idea what policies Dems ran on this cycle.

At least on the national level, the party's messaging was laser focused on that "Battle for the Soul of the Nation" garbage. The whole thing was that Trump is a bad person with poor moral character and Dems are not Trump. But there was no coherent vision presented for the future.

But I think fundamentally, that is a result of moderate dems straight up not having any big ideas or vision for the future. All of the policies, ideas, and vision of the party is coming from the progressive wing. You could see this in the primaries where the entire policy discussion was based on where you stand in relation to Sanders/Warren drafted policies.

Moderate/mainstream Dems seem entirely defined by what they are not. They're not Republicans and they're not progressives/socialists.

There's just a huge portion of the party that wants to pretend it still is, and always will be, the 90s. They refuse to adapt or look towards the future.

All that said...

I think we need a few more days of tallies to really come up with a firm post mortem. By this time in 2018 it was clear that Democrats had successfully won the house, but even just 1-2 days later it was like "Well, it was a win, but ... not as big as we thought it might be," and then about 12 races came in the ensuing days, Democrats won the majority of them, and it became clear that it was a historic flip. Right now 2020 is looking like a net of 5 seats for Republicans in the House, and the two races that really sting are the lost Florida seats lost narrowly by 2-3% which tracks along side the general election, and the Iowa seat, which again tracks Trump's strong performance in Iowa.

At this point the narrative follows the rest of the country. Trump over-performed in just about every state, every district, every race, and that ended up pulling Republicans up with him. Far from being an anchor on the House and Senate, he seemed to bouy many races with higher Republican turnout than in 2016 and 2018. BUt, again, it's not going to be a clear picture until the weekend or just after.
I agree that's it's still way to early to have effective post-mortems on all of this. It's ok to have some initial thoughts and takes, but I don't want to firmly dig in my heels on a particular explanation for this election until we get more data.
 

AliceAmber

Drive-in Mutant
Administrator
May 2, 2018
6,817
Let's wait until all the votes are counted first. Then we can do the postmortem discussions.
 
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