So, if I've read my doomed cards right, this obviously means that Nintendo will be third party in about 3 days, right?
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Nintendo stock down almost 7% after the E3 showcase (down another 5.27% per Tokyo Stock Exchange)
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So, if I've read my doomed cards right, this obviously means that Nintendo will be third party in about 3 days, right?
Switch consistently losing NPDs in what should be a peak era (Year 2-3) is kind of jarring, particularly when compared to the stratospheric hype of last year. Ah well, things will pick up at some point.
Nintendo's strategy of announcing games only a few months before release could be seen as positive one for gamers, but I think the shareholders could force their hand to reveal a bit more a bit earlier in the future. Could this be the end of Nintendo showcasing (mostly) a single game at E3?
Then again, Nintendo has always tended to do their own thing regardless of the thoughts of shareholders, so maybe this doesn't matter at all.
Then again, Nintendo has always tended to do their own thing regardless of the thoughts of shareholders, so maybe this doesn't matter at all.
It not about winning NPD though, if the Switch was selling as well as the PS4 is and was coming dead last it they would be more likely to hit there target.
We're only 1/3rd of the way in to Year 2 and the end of the calendar year is looking really strong- it's a bit much to suggest it's consistently losing across years 2 and 3.
Switch is actually only behind PS4 for most of the part of the year in NPD with what we know in the numbers that we get in the threads (it was behind Xbox One in a month or other but not in a big difference either way). And the peak of console generally happens later than the period that you said, most like in year 3 since the launch is mostly the strongest part of it before.
Nintendo likely saw sales trajectories and thought the Pokémon+Smash was enough.
We'll see in a few weeks what that means in actual numbers.
While I perfectly agree that their E3 2018 show was poorly planned (devoting 20+ minutes to Smash was nonsense to me, at least for a generic Direct), they still have not one but two heavy hitters releasing in the most important time of the year, and their evergreens are doing fine. And I think they will be fine, too.
Tl;dr seems to me the usual overreaction that mostly affects Nintendo on the 'net for who knows what reason.
We'll see in a few weeks what that means in actual numbers.
While I perfectly agree that their E3 2018 show was poorly planned (devoting 20+ minutes to Smash was nonsense to me, at least for a generic Direct), they still have not one but two heavy hitters releasing in the most important time of the year, and their evergreens are doing fine. And I think they will be fine, too.
Tl;dr seems to me the usual overreaction that mostly affects Nintendo on the 'net for who knows what reason.
Pokémon Let's Go will do it alone. That game will unfortunately be huge
I think we can acknowledge that the Switch is getting good software this year while at the same time accepting that it's not the kind of software that drives mindshare and excitement. E3 2017 showed a system with potential and lots of great content on the horizon. E3 2018 made the Switch look like a struggling platform. E3 is, to a large part, also about marketing and perception. Nintendo came to E3 and wanted to play by their own rules. It just didn't work out this time. Let's not forget that they basically had game of the show two years running with Breath of the Wild and Odyssey so expectations were high.
Only few month before release? Bayoneta, mainline Pokemon, Metroid, Zelda?
This...this is only like month 3 in Year 2...how are we extrapolating year 3 from this?
It's outselling the Xbox One still, and it was only really April and May that were down, mostly because of God of War and its insane marketing campaign selling PS4s to everyone.
Do you think it will do 3DS Pokemon levels?
I'm sort of on the fence there. I mean cost of entry for a 3DS and Pokemon was way less than a Switch and a ($60?) Game.
I guess revenue could easily be equal or better even if it sold less than 3DS+Pokemon HW/SW. And Nintendo does solid in holidays almost always.
I'm just a little hesitant to have huge expectations. Pokemon sells big. But say Switch sells 3DS + Pokemon levels. Is that enough in the context of their guidance?
No extrapolation, I apologise if that was how it was taken.
Historically, systems seem to peak normally during the 2nd and 3rd years on market. We obviously only have a short period of data so far from this to look at so far, but numbers are sort of 'good'? Not bad at all, but also not very notable either. Additionally, you can kind of see the momentum by looking at Jan to current sales in NPD to get a feel for the momentum of the system in these non holiday months.
And the next big pieces of major software are Smash and Pokemon much later in the year. Not a dig on the games between now and then, but that's what we've got for 'system seller' stuff aside from evergreens, which of course already factor in to the numbers we've been seeing.
It will definitely be interesting to see how it all shakes out. Nintendo seems extremely confident about 20M, so perhaps there are some great surprises, bundles, etc to look forward to in 2018!
That's my take from reading 26 pages of a good number of people discrediting Switch's releases and whatnot.
If Pokemon Let's Go synergies with Pokémon Go as well as I think it will. The Switch should be able to get to 20 million sold this year with Smash helping it pass that.
Though I am still unimpressed with how little we know about Nintendo's future mobile offerings as well as he lack of info on their paid online service. I will say I think it was a mistake to not detail in the E3 direct what the service will be like. Along with not announcing a big game to launch with it. To help ease investors worries but hey Nintendo has a plan for them so I guess at this point we have to wait and see what the plan is.
Though I am still unimpressed with how little we know about Nintendo's future mobile offerings as well as he lack of info on their paid online service. I will say I think it was a mistake to not detail in the E3 direct what the service will be like. Along with not announcing a big game to launch with it. To help ease investors worries but hey Nintendo has a plan for them so I guess at this point we have to wait and see what the plan is.
Just on the cost of entry, I'm about to drop £135 on the game and two pokeballs, so it can be a hell of a lot higher too!
Man, imagine if Nintendo had put in a nano SIM slot, and partnered with maybe TMobile or someone to get it where online MP with their service was truly mobile. Make it where game downloads are WiFi only unless you buy premium coverage, but make the 4g/LTE access free for online when subbed to Nintendo.
I don't think Nintendo has any more plans about the online service. It will have cloud saves and free NES games... That's about it.
I can imagine that we'll see this one-game-focus strategy one more time with Metroid Prime 4 in the near future.
Honestly, I don't think it will impact Pokemon Let's Go sales. The core Pokemon fans (those who bought a 3DS for Pokemon and every Pokemon game on it, include Ultra Sun & Ultra Moon) could buy a console and a 60$ game to play Pokemon. But people who play only Pokemon Go will never pay 360$ for a Pokemon game.
People did exactly that back when Pokemon Go came out. Of course they will, but it remains to be seen how many of them.
The Pokémon Go effect: 3DS sales up 19% as the mobile megahit stirs up fan excitement
April-June 2017 had Mario Kart 8 DX, ARMS and was still riding off the success of Breath of the Wild. 2018 is considerably weaker in the same period of time. This wouldn't be that surprising.
"Somewhat weaker" would be a more correct translation.
X and Y were released five years ago, Sun and Moon less than two years ago. Pretty sure S/M will surpass X/Y sales, you can't deny the Pokemon Go effect.
You can't compare the numbers of X&Y and SuMo one to one anyway. USUM definitely affected SuMo's legs in some capacity.
How is that related to what you were talking about? Your point was that people wouldn't buy dedicated hardware and full priced retail software because of GO. Which is clearly wrong.
And ORAS affected X & Y's
Comparing LTD Sun & Moon with X & Y's equivalent is more logical. Sun & Moon is higher
Because even with the "strong Pokemon Go Effect", Pokemon Sun & Moon sales aren't upper than X/Y. Some people have probably bought a 3DS after Pokemon Go, but their number is probably very small.
Q1 of last year was just after launch. Lower sales wouldn't be surprising.
Isn't Q1 of last year the launch of Switch? Or am I confused? lol
Precisely my point. It's difficult to quantify the sales numbers without context.
Nintendo presumably expects sales in Q3 and Q4 to make up for it so they reach their fiscal target of 20m. I doubt they didn't consider this when they scheduled their releases for FY18. It's obviously not ideal but if they reach their admittedly lofty target, the performance in Q1 won't really matter.
It would to a lot of people here. I was expecting it to be stuffed to be nominally up but perhaps not now.
I wouldn't read too much in those stocks, but I'd be quite happy if Nintendo interprets it as a warning after what many see as a disappointing string of news and releases. They still have time to save the year though, with hopefully a couple of unannounced 'too big for switch' games such as doom last year.
It was already talked weeks ago by Reggie and Kimishima and by what they said, they didn't seem to really care about it. Not like that happened in the past either.
I'm not going to comment about the year or lineup because it's not going anywhere either way.
It's funny because I don't even see that much Nintendo hate compared to the people that rush in and instantly strawman. Hell, this forum is full of Nintendo fans, yet you see tons of people acting like they are in the minority. It's hilarious.
I've never even seen someone seriously say that "Nintendo is doomed"
its not even pasrt years 2 and you are talking about year 3, and no, NPD is not a race, if anything Switch is doing a great job being second place running on fumes.
Stock holders 101, people that know nothing, or the average stock holder think in the same line of the average ERA doom poster
Nintendo: We will announce more games at a later date
ERA: THEY OBVIOUSLY HAVE NOTHING OR THEY WOULD HAVE SHOWN IT ALREADY, PRIME IS CANNED!!
they have not forced Nintendo in the past 30 years, they wont do it now.
its not even pasrt years 2 and you are talking about year 3, and no, NPD is not a race, if anything Switch is doing a great job being second place running on fumes.
you would rather see ever a more hardware driven combo than Smash and Pokemon side by side.
most of em are banned already...
and Nintendo been doomed for the past 30 years
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Nintendo has a god tier line up for holidays, but investors, as always, lack to see the big picture and long term profits (ever green titles, focusing on Holidays) they just Want Nintendo to mirror other companies and just make money by spikes (flavor of the month games)
when it comes to stocks all better tbh, the more it goes down around this times, the more ill make when they rebound.
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Mario Party
Megaman 11
Starlink
Smash
Pokemon LG
and just today they announced there are more things to come ...
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About YoY, even tho last year was hindered by Lack of stock, it was still Release Window of a new console with heavier content (BoTW on the back burn, Mario Kart 8.5 and ARMS) in comparison this year had DK TF DX, Fortnite, MT Acess, and Wolfestein II (albeit the last 3 are on the last month only)
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I don't know how a Holiday lineup with Mario Part, Smash and Pokémon isn't great. In fact, it's better than last year which had only Mario as a huge title while this year there's Smash and Pokémon as huge and Mario Party as big
Lol putting Mega Man 11 there. That ain't a big seller at all. IIRC only MM2 and Battle Network 4 pushed over 1 million in total sales.
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