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Wkd Box Office - 6•29-7•1•18 - Fallen Kingdom Repeats #1. Sicario beats tracking. Drew is fine too.
- Thread starter kswiston
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The Cruise missile is headed straight towards those fertile times!
So should open at least above 90 million for the weekend right?
Higher than Winter Soldier's which had a $95m OW. Some sources are also saying possibly $13m.
That's excellent! It's could open with Guardians of the Galaxy 1 numbers!
Marvel must be very pleased.
As long as it beats Justice League so someone can make that inevitable thread mocking Snyder for his 'flavor of the week' claim.
I thought people were OK about that last one with certified action star Adrian Brody.
I believe it. Looked at some shows times around me and they are a hell of a lot fuller than I was expecting. It's looking like this is going to have a huge boost over the original.
my screening was pretty packed, which surprised me.
infinity war hype too strong.
Yeah I honestly feel like IW is giving it a boost. I'm sure the sequel would have been up over the original no matter what (I mean pretty much all MCU films are) but if it opens to 90+ million that's a giant increase.
It's pretty crazy how well recieved IW was considering how off the rails that movie could have gone. Gonna be wild to see what happens with Captain Marvel and Avengers 4 opening weekends
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Fallen Kingdom passes $1B worldwide today.
EDIT: Actually, Mojo's update says that it includes today overseas for some reason. So I guess it is possible that Fallen Kingdom is at $999M after today. Either way, $1B has basically been reached, given that Asia is already into Friday.
EDIT: Actually, Mojo's update says that it includes today overseas for some reason. So I guess it is possible that Fallen Kingdom is at $999M after today. Either way, $1B has basically been reached, given that Asia is already into Friday.
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It could hit a billion. I think the fact that her role will lead directly into avengers four helps a ton
Add to the fact
she got the Bat Signal treatment at the end
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France (opened yesterday), UK, Japan, South Korea, Hong Kong, Germany, Spain, Italy, and the majority of the smaller EU territories.
It's mostly Latin America, Asia (minus the three territories above), and Oceania so far.
EDIT: The big 5 in Europe, plus Japan, were $210M for the original Incredibles. That film only did $370M total overseas.
Pretty much any high school wrestling kid could have taken on Brody.
Its looking more possible than I thought it ever would be. I went with mid 70's and I thought that was a nice increase over the first. The fact there is a very strong chance we are looking at a 90+ million opening for Ant-Man of all things is crazy to me.
Btw kswiston how do you think the delayed international release will affect Ant-Man?
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Possibly. UK is waiting a month. The film will be up for illegal streaming for weeks before then. World Cup delayed a bunch of films, and Disney is afraid to go against Mamma Mia 2 in the UK.
Yep I was thinking the same. That's a pretty major delay and I honestly think it might impact the international take.
Either way we are looking at an opening in the US that may be close to 2x the last films opening. Pretty freaking crazy. Its looking like the Thursday number may end up closer to 13 million than the 11 million number
Oh yeah I'm sure Antman and Captain Marvel will get an Infinity Wars boost (especially Marvel since she was teased in IW).
What was your prediction?
If it was closer to Spider-Man Homecoming than Dr. Strange, than yeah you may have been on to something (if the 13 million preview number pans out)
I always think the Google Search metrics around Captain Marvel are hilarious to watch in the fallout of Infinity War
http:///kcQc.png
Yeah she's gonna get one hell of an IW boost
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The actual article headline just says 11M+
https://deadline.com/2018/07/ant-man-and-the-wasp-opening-box-office-overperform-marvel-1202422128/
15 million has to be far fetched right?
I mean shit that would literally put it on par with SM: Homecoming. And Ant-Man actually has one of the highest "family" splits in the MCU which would actually bode well for its upcoming Saturday / Sunday number.
I refuse to believe it can go that high. 13 million in and of itself would be madness
I mean shit that would literally put it on par with SM: Homecoming. And Ant-Man actually has one of the highest "family" splits in the MCU which would actually bode well for its upcoming Saturday / Sunday number.
I refuse to believe it can go that high. 13 million in and of itself would be madness
$13-15m in previews, huh. So if we take a mid-point of $14m, even a low previews-to-OW multiplier of 7.59 (Homecoming's) will give it over $105m.
A hold like Vol.2 puts it near Thor: Ragnarok's opening, but apparently Ant-Man 2's previews include 6 p.m. showings so there should be a bigger drop in the actual weekend days.
I'll estimate a flat 8.0 multiplier, giving it $112m. To think this could come within $5m of RDJ and MCU Spider-Man is incredible.
A hold like Vol.2 puts it near Thor: Ragnarok's opening, but apparently Ant-Man 2's previews include 6 p.m. showings so there should be a bigger drop in the actual weekend days.
I'll estimate a flat 8.0 multiplier, giving it $112m. To think this could come within $5m of RDJ and MCU Spider-Man is incredible.
This is very telling right here. What is the Antman and Wasp stinger? If it's Captain Marvel related again then the build up will be even bigger and the CM opening is going to be quite nice.
Right, that's why I was curious if they were going to update something, because they didn't even mention 15 million, so I'm wondering what's going on
Saw that RT was at 88% and metacritic was at 70, same score as Winter soldier. What a time to be alive.
People don't really talk about it, but as someone involved in the sales side of the video game industry, Google Search metrics are among the most accurate indicators of a breakout success or failure as there is. Legitimately
Its RT average rating is significantly lower, though. 7/10 vs. 7.6/10.
Oh yeah its way outperforming my expectations. Without a doubt.
Over $100m isn't locked in yet though by any means. We need to see what the actual preview number is and what Friday looks like.
If this somehow comes in doing 13 or more in previews though? Yeah $100m may happen
Haha, it's all in good fun. :D It's in line with mine but I was way, way, way up on the optimism spectrum.
It's legitimately insane, and frankly we all don't have the perspective on how crazy this is because we are so close to it. Do you know how hard it is to make a sequel succeed? Or to make say 3 movies in a row succeed?
The performance of the MCU, no hyperbole, may be the most impressive entertainment trajectory / handling of a property in the history of entertainment. I'm honestly not exaggerating that by any means.
It's funny because you know box office pundits and outlets will hazard at an 'optimistic' $120m OW guess at Captain Marvel and I'll sit back and laugh as it does GotG2 numbers instead.
$13m for Thursday makes that on the higher end of outcomes but still very possible. $14m makes that very doable, likely even. $11m and it's a long, long shot.
Ant-Man & The Wasp's budget is...surprisingly low? $130m? That's the same as its predecessor. It looks quite a bit more effects-heavy with all the Quantum Realm stuff.
That makes breaking even on its production budget with just domestic revenues very possible. And I doubt the marketing spend for this thing is more than Guardians Vol.2's ($80m). This is going to chalk up a sizable profit for Marvel Studios, much more than the first Ant-Man.
That makes breaking even on its production budget with just domestic revenues very possible. And I doubt the marketing spend for this thing is more than Guardians Vol.2's ($80m). This is going to chalk up a sizable profit for Marvel Studios, much more than the first Ant-Man.
High 80's / low 90's seem maybe the safest bet for now. Hard to say for sure without the final preview number but its not going lower than that.
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