I mean the estimated weekend is 82 mil which is a bit lower than Solo and Solo had pretty decent legs.
I mean if the estimates are way off and it does 90 that would be different. But that estimate was thrown out after the Friday numbers I thought.
Solo opened to $84M and had a Memorial Weekend, so it is not apples to oranges comparison for Ant Man. The numbers are inflated for it due to this reason. It is actually on the lower end of Memorial Weekend opening multiplier.
Solo percentage drops were worse than TLG in the initial weeks as shared by Kswiss. It recovered a bit but just being better, and that too slightly, for the worse legs Star Wars is not a result that I would call decent.
Spider-Man Homecoming legs off of $80M is $228M. $250M off of a low 80s finish is a >3x multiplier. None of the direct sequels have managed that.
Also $90M is dead and buried with a $33.8M Friday. Minus previews, that is $22.3M on Friday. Guardians of the Galaxy made $26.5M on its first Friday minus previews. AMatW would have to match GotG's Sat and Sun total to stay above $90M. Films released in early July don't bump the 40% over Friday proper required for that to happen.
Basically, Deadline was overpredicting with their $85-95M range yesterday, which is why they dropped it to $81M last night, despite the fact that the Friday total only decreased $1M from their first estimate.
The issue here is that you should compare it to an MCU movie in 2018. Did we not see better than expected results with Black Panther and even Infinity War just recently? So why is it hard to see that Ant Man and Wasp will repeat the same, by which I mean it will do better than expected.
Why do I believe it? MCU hype is at all time peak now. We are just coming off from Avengers and Black Panther both making >650M. They all shattered the initial expectations and not just for their OW. I remember how everyone was skeptical of Avengers IW coming closer to $650M even after that huge opening weekend. It is going to end up with 2.65x multiplayer, which is amazing for a movie that opened to such a huge number and faced so much competition ahead.
Just saying it is too early to call the LTD for Ant Man. My multiplier predictions at the minimum are 2.65x to maximum of 2.8x for Ant Man. I might be just overpredicting it but I do believe the film has a chance at $250M if it hits 90M. It will then need just a 2.8x multiplayer to hit that number. You already said it is hard to get to that number but I guess we will see. If it ends up in the middle with 85M, then yeh, I won't be that sure. I do still think it can hit 240M.
Anyways, it will end up doing far better than the first movie so any result that is an improvement is good. But it is fun to argue numbers so I am just clarifying that it won't be a disappointment in any case :)
And here I thought Jurassic World wouldn't break 650.
- Terrible trailers.
- Seemingly no hype from anyone at my job or anything.
DOM or INT?
Domestically, it had no chance of hitting that number. Internationally, the brand is HUGE and the movie has already made $700M from INT markets.
