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NPD Blog: Switch Will Be Highest Selling Console This Year in US, Red Dead 2 Top Selling Game
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
- Start date
I am not trying to romanticize what it has done so far sure. That does not mean I am saying it is not successful.
The WiiU + 3DS is at 85m units or so. Assuming 3DS adds another 5m or so that puts the total at 90m. I can't picture any scenario where the Switch does not handily outsell the 3DS. I don't think they'll actually decline in console sales from last gen. And even more so, software will be significantly up across the board even if hardware is flat.
Ignoring all that, adding the sales of 2 systems doesn't make sense. Combining 2 products into one doesn't mean you will sell double the units. That's just flawed logic from the jump.
Anyway, on topic, I expect PS4 to be the best selling system this year since I expect the $200 PS4 to come back in full force.
The funny thing about this argument of measuring Switch by combined handheld and console sales is that Switch will probably shoot past the Wii U and 3Ds combo pretty comfortably, while DS and Wii combo is something no console in the history of man has ever touched or will likely ever touch.
Oh and it just fucking hit me, if Switch evolves into an ecosystem of products that I half-predict it to, the very same guys who say it needs to reach the combined sales of whatever to be considered a success will insist we don't count the devices together, won't they?
Yet you are perfectly fine with romanticizing the PS4 saying the whole "5 year console" thing when using your way of thinking we could talk about the launch of a mid gen refresh which catered to a different audience and made up quite a large portion of sales up until this point.
Actually.. that may not be true. The Wii U and 3DS hardware sales combined is currently less than 90 million, so the Switch actually have a good chance to beat both platforms combined in that metric.
That doesn't even tell the whole story, though. We also have to consider that handhelds traditionally have lower hardware-to-software ratios and cheaper prices. The Switch doesn't have to reach the combined portable and hardware numbers for the system to be a massive success.
Edit: sheesh. Several posted already pointed out the 3DS/Wii U userbase :)
Yes I am perfectly fine with doing that. I find a higher priced console doing well in its 5th year very impressive.
It very well may but the WiiU may not have been the potential home console market reach that Nintendo normally enjoys. I still think Sony ( if they had actually given a shit ) even today could release a handheld console and do better than the shitty Vita. I still think they have a 30 million seller Handheld potential in them :P.
Anyways I agree with your comment. The Switch does not need to reach the combined portable and hardware numbers for it to be a massive success. Hence my comment on who cares what the total install base ends up anyways if they are making more money than before.
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Well then the conversation is obviously over because you can't see how you are being hypocritical.
My point is that it hasn't and isn't going to fully absorb the 3DS/dedicated handheld market. There are differences between the Switch and 3DS that will ensure that that isn't the case, like form factors, price points, and game libraries (games built around the touch screen or portability are not likely to be developed for the Switch, as they wouldn't easily be compatible with the docked mode).
Yes, some portable users have moved from the 3DS to the Switch, but not all of them, so the sales of the Switch cannot be accurately compared to the combined sales of consoles with their portable counterparts of their respective generations.
Dude these are all opinions at the end of the day. You have yours and I have mine. Neither of us are being hypocrites. Stop taking this stuff so seriously. Its all gaming at the end of the day.
Why is that amazing? The fourth and fifth year are when consoles typically sell their best thanks to price drops and established libraries.
You would've thought this post said the switch is bombing Nintendo going third party Sony number one or something with how this conversation played out
No you are saying one counts and the other doesn't. That is being hypocritical. And now you are trying to deflect after being called out by saying "it's just games man, chill!" Hilarious.
Its still playing the same library and is higher priced though? I mean even if you take out the pro I still think its fascinating that a 299 dollar console in its 5th year is hanging around with a brand new console at the same price.
I mean think about it this way. All hypothetical of course but lets say Switch is in its fifth year . Lets say PS5 is announced and is priced at a lower price point than the Switch and still gets outsold by the Switch. Would you consider that impressive or no?
I certainly would be impressed.
I never said the other did not count. Which part of I find one more impressive is hypocritical. 'Called out' lol
Huh?
It's selling very well. Do you guys honestly perceive sales only in terms of who "won" a given month?
Wow, that's an understatement! :D
Anyway, I generally agree with what you said. You need to watch the hyperbole, though. Your previous comments about combining portable and consoles can easily be interpreted as you downplaying what the Switch is doing when you overestimated the 'success' of the 3DS and Wii U combo.
I think whether PS4 or Switch sells more in 2018, it will come to a gap of less than 500k, possibly even something like 100-200k. It's a total coinflip that depends on deals at retailers to the largest extent. $299 and PS4 loses IMHO. Widely available $249 bundles and $199 BF deals, PS4 probably takes it, as I have zero expectations of any bargains on Switch beyond some limited $299 and $329 bundles.
What does seem extremely likely, and far more interesting to ponder, is that I think Nintendo will miss the 20M global sales by 1.5M or so, while PS4 will beat their 16M expectations by 2-2.5M. So they might globally nearly tie as well, but investors would have the opposite reactions to this virtual tie.
It will be fascinating to see. Looking back at 3DS Pokemon and Smash, systems which were dramatically more affordable than Switch, sales were great but not world shattering, so I'm not terribly confident that $300+$60 is going to translate into world beating sales this holiday. Surely excellent sales, but enough to cover a 400-600k gap? In the end, depends on how things are priced and available imho.
What does seem extremely likely, and far more interesting to ponder, is that I think Nintendo will miss the 20M global sales by 1.5M or so, while PS4 will beat their 16M expectations by 2-2.5M. So they might globally nearly tie as well, but investors would have the opposite reactions to this virtual tie.
It will be fascinating to see. Looking back at 3DS Pokemon and Smash, systems which were dramatically more affordable than Switch, sales were great but not world shattering, so I'm not terribly confident that $300+$60 is going to translate into world beating sales this holiday. Surely excellent sales, but enough to cover a 400-600k gap? In the end, depends on how things are priced and available imho.
Switch will definitely top this year especially with a Pokemon and Smash plus it's basically on it's 2nd year, I doubt 5 year old system on their near twilight years can beat it on Q4. The amazing thing is that both PS4 and Xbox doesn't have significant price cuts yet, they're still doing great.
You must always move the goalposts!
We're in new waters here really. There have been revisions in the past, but minor ones at least from a performance perspective. Form factors, features (backward compatibility) etc mostly. Technically the DSi had exclusive games, but only one at retail, New 3DS has a handful too. But PS4 Pro is the first ever revision of a console with significant, widespread adoption and major advertised software support for the new SKU, even if there are technically no exclusives.
I think all significant hardware configurations be counted separately, so we get a clear picture of everything. Certainly previous handhelds got boosts from such things. I certainly think the Game Boy Color should be counted separately in sales totals, it had 400 exclusive retail games!
Even then, we'll never get clarity of the likely huge number of people who upgraded their PS2/360 because the old one died.
For me it's selling OK in the last 2 months, far from very well. It's not because didn't "win", it's the numbers itself.
The number itself that isn't that distant from PS4, still pretty high and above Xbox One in this market?
Eh, I'm not so convinced that the Switch will come out on top this year. Sony can move a ton of units if they offer a similar promotion to last year, and don't limit the stock. Combining that with Spider-Man and Red Dead Redemption 2 is sure to make for a significant boost. It would be close, in any case.
The type of launch Smash would need to land top 10 is really unlikely. If it launched in September sure. But December? Very unlikely
IIRC, it is very comparable to the PS4. It will look bad if you compare it to the Wii, but such numbers would be impossible for Switch's production pace anyway.
I didn't say Switch is doing bad. YTD sales are solid, I just can't see it selling more than PS4 that will have a big Q4 too and is building an advantage that will increase in the next months before Q4.
Always fun to read predictions and I think all three are set up for a great year.
My prediction (not worth much!): I think the PS4 takes it somewhat comfortably over the Switch in sales. If i remember right, I believe leaks had them roughly 300k ahead (?) for the first 5 months so far. I see June/July/August maybe as slight gains for the PS4 over the Switch, but not changing things much. On the other hand, September and October should be massive gains over the Switch with Spiderman, Red Dead, Black Ops (battle royale), Battlefield (also with battle royale) and Assassins Creed driving sales. November should be a solid Switch month of gains, but who knows if PS4 (or Switch as well) decide to run a massive deal akin to the $200 PS4 offered last year. And finally, December should definitely be solidly Switch, but Smash missing Black Friday and launching so near to the end of the year slightly kneecaps their 2018 sales (should be a boon to their 2019 start!)
I'm guessing PS4 is up ~400k before September starts. Then, asking the Switch to overcome the gargantuan sales potential of Spiderman and Red Dead (GTA 5 has sold nearly 100 million copies...) and the usual Black Friday deals is just too huge a mountain to climb. Like I said, Smash missing Black Friday hurts as well as I see it being the primary console seller over this iteration of Pokemon.
To be clear once again, I think all three are set up for a HUGE 2018. Should be real interesting to follow as well as I think all three have the potential to be very aggressive this holiday season.
My prediction (not worth much!): I think the PS4 takes it somewhat comfortably over the Switch in sales. If i remember right, I believe leaks had them roughly 300k ahead (?) for the first 5 months so far. I see June/July/August maybe as slight gains for the PS4 over the Switch, but not changing things much. On the other hand, September and October should be massive gains over the Switch with Spiderman, Red Dead, Black Ops (battle royale), Battlefield (also with battle royale) and Assassins Creed driving sales. November should be a solid Switch month of gains, but who knows if PS4 (or Switch as well) decide to run a massive deal akin to the $200 PS4 offered last year. And finally, December should definitely be solidly Switch, but Smash missing Black Friday and launching so near to the end of the year slightly kneecaps their 2018 sales (should be a boon to their 2019 start!)
I'm guessing PS4 is up ~400k before September starts. Then, asking the Switch to overcome the gargantuan sales potential of Spiderman and Red Dead (GTA 5 has sold nearly 100 million copies...) and the usual Black Friday deals is just too huge a mountain to climb. Like I said, Smash missing Black Friday hurts as well as I see it being the primary console seller over this iteration of Pokemon.
To be clear once again, I think all three are set up for a HUGE 2018. Should be real interesting to follow as well as I think all three have the potential to be very aggressive this holiday season.
They are different SKUs that offer different visual or performance benefits for their respective libraries. On top of that, the higher priced SKU brings in more revenue for the platform, and considering that NPD sales charts are revenue-based and not unit-based, that will factor into the platform's performance on the charts.
And yes, when removing the PRO SKU from the equation, even though it's not selling above the top selling Switch SKU, it's still doing very well, and I would consider its sales remarkable at this point in its lifetime. However, the sales of the Switch have nothing to do with that.
I would be consider success of the Switch by its market penetration and longevity on the market, not by how much it outsold a new console. So again, if it's still selling well in its fifth year, my impression of its success wouldn't have anything to do with it outselling a new platform.
Predicting Switch software sales is always a challenge because NPD has no digital sales data for Switch.
Its a shame because almost all Switch owners I know are fully digital on Switch, so the real Switch software sales would be interesting.
rhetorical question. of course we do.
but in case of the switch i have to agree. sales numbers are somehow meaningless as the switch is primarily just a marketing gadget to promote their mobile games.
I never understood the logic behind the Switch needing to beat Nintendo's past home consoles and handheld sales combined to be a success. I owned a WiiU and two 3ds's (Wii and multiple ds's etcs.) now I only own a Switch. Why should my 3 past purchases now diminish the one purchase of a single Switch? Feel like it's bad logic or arguing in bad faith. I can't be the only one who owned both consoles in the past.
please tell me that your metric of "not doing great" does not going in the lines of "if is not the best seller then is trash" cause I swear to god
What are you even talking about? The 3DS is still selling and many Wii or WiiU owners had bought a DS/3DS too.
Anyway, both PS4 and Switch are on the way to sell 100+ mio, but the Switch seems to get there faster.
I feel like what console does streamers decide to stream Red Dead Redemption 2 with will hugely impact the market share ratio between Xbox One and PS4, or at the very least, between Xbox One X and PS4 Pro.
As for Nintendo Switch, every main entry of Pokémon has elevate the sales of Nintendo hardware to the top of the year chart. It's just this time the hardware will be count as the "console" category. And with the cross promotion between Pokémon Go and Pokémon Let's go series, I think it's not a stretch to say that Switch will take the crown this year. Spider man is a strong man. However, unless all the avengers are in the game, it's still just one man against all the 150 and above Pokémons.
As for Nintendo Switch, every main entry of Pokémon has elevate the sales of Nintendo hardware to the top of the year chart. It's just this time the hardware will be count as the "console" category. And with the cross promotion between Pokémon Go and Pokémon Let's go series, I think it's not a stretch to say that Switch will take the crown this year. Spider man is a strong man. However, unless all the avengers are in the game, it's still just one man against all the 150 and above Pokémons.
I'd say cutting price of Switch would make sense with the launch of Pokemon LG since its the more casual pokemon game and the most likely to sell consoles to a new audience, and pokemon go is still very popular so they should milk that advantage for all they've got. This could be done as a bundle though, ie keep price of switch the same just it comes with pokemon LG (and perhaps a Mario bundle).
Nintendo recently reaffirmed its 20M target but said it will be difficult and will be back end loaded, so a price cut would make it easier to reach their expectations. I think its just a good strategy anyway, they should attract as many Fortnite players as possible to the platform, and what with their PSN+ equivalent, they'd get recurring revenue.
the only console that lets you play fortnight under your blanket while waiting for the tooth fairy
Yup. This is exactly how I see it too. I think you'll be pretty much bang on. PS4 will win this year in terms of both sales and quality games.