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NPD Blog: Switch Will Be Highest Selling Console This Year in US, Red Dead 2 Top Selling Game
- Thread starter Deleted member 249
- Start date
Yeah this too about PS4. It still selling so well right now, could say is amazing.
After Spider-Man, it will have to rely on multi platform games to push consoles.
Sony did great with the exclusives for 2018, no doubt.
I think this is a very salient point, Nintendo opting to move to a "mid cycle" launch probably throws in more unknowns than usual regarding forecasting this stuff. I can easily see scenarios where Switch stalls around GBA/3DS/PSP numbers before a speedy replacement and I can also see scenarios where it rockets well past 100m with smart use of price drops, system sellers and new models. There's a wide birth of possibility but at least in Switch's favor, 100m is most definitely still a realistic possibility.
Will Switch sell amazingly? Yes. Will Switch sell so well that it catch up to PS4 and outsell it in the face of Spider-Man and other large third party games? Not really and it's the reason why it's so odd that prediction is stated as such.
I believe NPD predicted XBO would outsell PS4 in 2017.....so take predictions with a grain of salt.
Yeah i'm interested too, June is kinda important from both side, Switch some new release and PS4 had DoP which was huge last year.
Barely outselling Switch in the more quieter months on the year doesn't say much. Also, due to already having big install bases and nearing the end of its life, new titles will have a smaller effect on hardware than in earlier years. Mind I also don't think Switch will outsell by a lot or anything.
It actually does for a console in its fifth year that is supposed to sell 16 million, we even had a few sales people saying PS4's performance is surprising.
Sold 24 million. Kinect was very popular. Not sure where he got that from unless he means the Xbox one Kinect
It's 2 different skus sonits harder. For example if each game sells 2.5 mill copies(random guess) that wouldn't be enough to chart. Where as if they were counted together 5 million would.
Hasn't the PS4 outsold all all but 1 month this year? Smash will do numbers, but I'm curious how the Pokemon game will do (I think it looks like dogshit by the way, but will buy the relevant one next year with the Switch).
That's incredible impressive, especially considering how bad their actual output this year was. With Gears and possibly Halo coming out next year, things are looking good.
Their output this year has actually been doing quite well sales wise. PUBG is still doing numbers since last December, Sea of thieves and state of decay 2 launched big for them. And they also have Forza coming which will also launch big. Maybe not the best critically but commercially it's probably one of their better years for software
Spider-Man is the giant of that month. The only major competition it could is Tomb Raider and maybe Dragon Quest and maybe Spyro. Other than that it'll be the best selling game of that month easily.
It hasn't been barely out selling the switch, the lead in the months has been fairly substantial. Also, I don't know how you can say that about new titles when God of War just gave PS4 a huge boost making it nearly double switch sales in that month.
No I know it is. I was more talking critically, but that hasn't stopped any of those games from making money. Whoever signed the timed exclusive with PUBG deserves a yacht.
oh it beat it in June?
Nah NBA 2k is the giant. Don't underestimate that game. It'll easily outsell Spider-Man
I don't see that prediction in US for Switch. With Red Dead 2 bundles, Spiderman, Battleifield V I just don't see Pokemon and smash overtaking those, let alone pushing switch to be best selling. Especially with Smash dropping so late in December.
Hi. I'm going to go grab some coffee before I respond to a few posts, so I'll also be happy to answer any questions if anyone has any.
I'm not really sure what that is meant to mean? Yes it's a prediction and yes predictions can be wrong, otherwise Mat would be a very rich man by now if he got everything right. It's just his personal opinion on how he thinks sales will play out for the rest of the year.
If my memory serves me right (and it might not), I think the PS4 had stock issues in december last year due to the insane sales in november. If they can make enough of them I think this will be higher. Outside of Japan I don't think there were too much issues with stock for the switch.
But it's going to get close when looking at all year probably. Hopefully they will both break records :)
Would Spider-Man outsell GOW if it didnt came out months later?
Destiny return to grace expansion comes out on PC, Xbox and PS4. if Spider-Man wins it wiont be by a lot. Dragon Quest is not even a threat.
Hi Mat, how do you go about determining whether a game has good legs or not?
Not trying to downplay PS4 sales, they have been amazing for a console in its 5th year!
Here are the results for his 2017 predictions.
https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/blog/2018/mats-2017-us-video-game-market-prediction-results/
CTRL+F'd Xbox and there is nothing on Xbox outselling PS4 in 2017.
And here's the original post that made these predictions:
https://www.npd.com/wps/portal/npd/us/blog/2017/video-game-industry-predictions-for-holiday-2017/
Once again, nothing.
How is Kirby, Labo, Tennis, Mario Party, Pokemon and Smash Bros not aimed at a casual audience? They even said themselves at the beginning of the year they would focus on the extended audience.
Do you think that Nintendo will have a price cut to help it hit the 20 million fiscal year forecast?
A lot of people seem to be forgetting that Nintendo could also do a price drop for November. Gamestop had that massive trade-in deal last month that doubled weekly Switch sales, so a Black Friday bundle or price drop that provides any sort of increased value proposition will probably do absurd numbers, especially compared to last year when they had literally nothing.
Also as for the rest of this year, I think June to August are completely up for grabs. PS4 will take September but Switch may not be too far behind if the online service launches with a big number of games like some are suspecting. October will be PS4 or XB1 depending on deals/bundles. And Switch will take November and December due to Pokemon and Smash.
Asking the tough questions.
Also as for the rest of this year, I think June to August are completely up for grabs. PS4 will take September but Switch may not be too far behind if the online service launches with a big number of games like some are suspecting. October will be PS4 or XB1 depending on deals/bundles. And Switch will take November and December due to Pokemon and Smash.
Asking the tough questions.
I'll give you Pokemon because of the Go audience, and Kirby because that has been its focus from the very first game, but dude
- Mario Tennis Ace is the most complex Mario Tennis to date
- Mario Party is going back to its roots. Want a casual Mario Party? Play MP 10
- Smash Bros focused on the casual audience while based heavily on 4 and Melee... I swear i'm actively trying not to laugh
Did you not read OP? Switch is the 2nd highest selling console in the US launch aligned, only behind the Wii....tell me how that is "not doing great".
Dragon Quest isn't going to do anything come September
In typical SE fashion with Enix brands, it's sent to die
Party games are casual games (because they need to be enjoyed during a party). Both Mario Party and Smash Bros have enough random items and reversal mechanics to level the playing field between novices and (a bit) more experienced gamers. (we just had a thread about it: https://www.resetera.com/threads/ss...e-actually-play-it-as-sakurai-intended.54184/ ) Mario Tennis is a sports game, it's arguably more casual in appeal than Kirby.
Most Nintendo titles are aimed at a casual audience, especially Mario Party. Nintendo titles like MP and Smash cover a wide range of players.
What it means is quite simple, whether you see it or not. Anyone in the business of making predictions on video games predicting that the Xbox One would outsell the PS4 in 2017 would have no credibility, be pushing some kind of agenda or just flat out stupid and unqualified. Predicting it would outsell it launch year is one thing, but by 2017 we already knew it was over for any such XB1/PS4 competition. It's very clear what that means.
Now according to the post by Sander VF, they made no such prediction, and if that's the case, then we can't hold that against them.
Nintendo always has a bigger increase in holiday season sales than the others due to a higher proportion of the audience being children who get consoles for Christmas from relatives.
So some posters require comparing Switch sales to Wii + DS, but then don't compare PS4 to PS2 + PSP and ignore the fact that the 3DS is still selling better than anybody expected.
Also, I find the comparisons of Wii sales to other recent consoles interesting. The Wii received one hardware revision that wasn't advertised and most people didn't know about (okay two if you include the mini, but that wasn't even made widely available) while the PS3 PS4, XBX1 and Xbox 360 have received regular revisions often improving durability, memory, reducing noise, etc. I honestly don't know how useful the final numbers are without knowing the number of unique purchasers. And don't even get me started on DS and 3DS in that regard.
But seriously, we need more everybody wins gifs
Also, I find the comparisons of Wii sales to other recent consoles interesting. The Wii received one hardware revision that wasn't advertised and most people didn't know about (okay two if you include the mini, but that wasn't even made widely available) while the PS3 PS4, XBX1 and Xbox 360 have received regular revisions often improving durability, memory, reducing noise, etc. I honestly don't know how useful the final numbers are without knowing the number of unique purchasers. And don't even get me started on DS and 3DS in that regard.
But seriously, we need more everybody wins gifs
You forget all those ps4/xbox games before that prediction? You think NS gonna make a great deal in black friday?
2K is big but you know what I'm standing by what I said. Spider-Man is popular and it'll receive a marketing push like no other.
"I think Scorpio has the potential to push Xbox One sales ahead of the PS4 in the US in 2017"
Mat Piscatella, The NPD Group
https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www....d-outsell-ps4-this-year-thanks-to-scorpio-npd
yeah people need to chill with that lol
it's all kinds of transparent and obviously disingenuous as all hell
I think PS4 will win September comfortably as outside of Spiderman there a lot of 3rd party releases. The launch of the paid online service for Switch is not a positive this is also why Nintendo bearly talks about it and also if there were a lot games supposed to come out in September for Switch we would have already knew about it.
Alright, let's do this. First off, thanks for everyone's comments and thoughts. I appreciate the feedback, especially those that challenge assumptions and force me to think through things differently. Thanks!
Second, a prediction is not a forecast is not a prophecy. A forecast is a calculated result of a series of assumptions. And the forecast is only as good as the assumptions, which are almost always not reflected in reality. And a prediction is a specific subset of forecast that has even more assumptions, of even higher potential error. I know I'll get at least some of the predictions wrong, because my set of assumptions will end up not working out as I anticipate. Such is life.
I'll start with these, and then I'll go back to find a few more that are interesting.
Groundwork Peru. It's real good. Life's too short to drink bad coffee. Grind your own beans. And while I use a drip on the daily, a french press is tough to beat.
Nah, but if I did it would be one of those new paper straws. Plastic gotta go.
Primarily I go with decay rate. Games generally sell fewer copies over time, with the exceptions of seasonality and big price discounting. However, when you look at a franchise or genre or even super genre, it's pretty easy to come up with averages of what that decay rate looks like. If a game decays at a slower rate than one would normally expect for that franchise or genre, that shows good legs.
Potentially. But God of War is currently sitting at 94 meta and released in a great window. If that game were at 84 and launched mid-November, we wouldn't be seeing the performance we are. So God of War is, imo, an unfair bar to set for Marvel's Spider-Man. It's exceptionally difficult for a game to have the kind of development success the God of War team achieved. I obviously think Marvel's Spider-Man will have a fantastic 2018. I have it pegged as the best-selling superhero game in more than a decade, and the highest ranking superhero game since the old Spider-Man The Movie games published by Activision back in the day.
So I have both my past predictions and results of those predictions here. I don't hide from them, and I'm not worried when a prediction doesn't work out. Just means I made some bad assumptions. Getting a prediction or forecast wrong isn't a problem. It's only a problem if one cannot recognize where they goofed up in making that prediction or forecast.
But yes, my early year 2017 forecast did have Xbox One outselling PS4. My assumption was that, with the Xbox One X, a slate of first party titles would launch in support. That didn't happen, so my forecast was wrong. But again, I know why it was wrong.
Funny part is I then brought my early year 2018 number for Xbox One significantly lower because I assumed very little 1st party support, and since then Xbox One has been on absolute fire because of State of Decay 2, Sea of Theives, Game Pass and the Backwards Compat efforts, and I'm wrong now the other way. But again, I know where my assumptions were off.
Second, a prediction is not a forecast is not a prophecy. A forecast is a calculated result of a series of assumptions. And the forecast is only as good as the assumptions, which are almost always not reflected in reality. And a prediction is a specific subset of forecast that has even more assumptions, of even higher potential error. I know I'll get at least some of the predictions wrong, because my set of assumptions will end up not working out as I anticipate. Such is life.
I'll start with these, and then I'll go back to find a few more that are interesting.
Groundwork Peru. It's real good. Life's too short to drink bad coffee. Grind your own beans. And while I use a drip on the daily, a french press is tough to beat.
Nah, but if I did it would be one of those new paper straws. Plastic gotta go.
Primarily I go with decay rate. Games generally sell fewer copies over time, with the exceptions of seasonality and big price discounting. However, when you look at a franchise or genre or even super genre, it's pretty easy to come up with averages of what that decay rate looks like. If a game decays at a slower rate than one would normally expect for that franchise or genre, that shows good legs.
Potentially. But God of War is currently sitting at 94 meta and released in a great window. If that game were at 84 and launched mid-November, we wouldn't be seeing the performance we are. So God of War is, imo, an unfair bar to set for Marvel's Spider-Man. It's exceptionally difficult for a game to have the kind of development success the God of War team achieved. I obviously think Marvel's Spider-Man will have a fantastic 2018. I have it pegged as the best-selling superhero game in more than a decade, and the highest ranking superhero game since the old Spider-Man The Movie games published by Activision back in the day.
So I have both my past predictions and results of those predictions here. I don't hide from them, and I'm not worried when a prediction doesn't work out. Just means I made some bad assumptions. Getting a prediction or forecast wrong isn't a problem. It's only a problem if one cannot recognize where they goofed up in making that prediction or forecast.
But yes, my early year 2017 forecast did have Xbox One outselling PS4. My assumption was that, with the Xbox One X, a slate of first party titles would launch in support. That didn't happen, so my forecast was wrong. But again, I know why it was wrong.
Funny part is I then brought my early year 2018 number for Xbox One significantly lower because I assumed very little 1st party support, and since then Xbox One has been on absolute fire because of State of Decay 2, Sea of Theives, Game Pass and the Backwards Compat efforts, and I'm wrong now the other way. But again, I know where my assumptions were off.