Time aligning means they are taking into account those launches.Why would time aligned even be a thing? Of course the switch would be ahead time aligned when you completely ignore both the ps4 and xb1 launch. Lol what the hell.
Time aligning means they are taking into account those launches.Why would time aligned even be a thing? Of course the switch would be ahead time aligned when you completely ignore both the ps4 and xb1 launch. Lol what the hell.
Cheers. But really, after sitting in front of some of the execs I've had to in order to advocate for a forecast or show what happened with a title's performance? Like I said, I do this for fun. Want a tough day? Try to explain to a group of 20 high level execs why a game is significantly under plan. Not a whole lot of fun.
I think it's due to the December release, and it being an exclusive to one platform. If it came out a month earlier and thus would hit Black Friday, it probably would make the Top 10. It still might, I suppose, but with only a few weeks to do so it will be tough.
Interess, but still curious what black friday can do. September gonna cagth my attention.I'm very interested in this too. The data suggest that Fortnite has had a big impact to PS4 and Xbox One hardware in 2018. But not only that, it reads pretty clearly to me that Accessories like Headsets and Game Cards have also been pushed higher this year by Fortnite.
Will this carry over to Switch? I think it should, but I won't get any read until mid August due to the database upgrades we're putting into place. And even then June data will be noisy because of the strong trade in promotions at GameStop.
Cheers. But really, after sitting in front of some of the execs I've had to in order to advocate for a forecast or show what happened with a title's performance? Like I said, I do this for fun. Want a tough day? Try to explain to a group of 20 high level execs why a game is significantly under plan. Not a whole lot of fun.
NPD doesn't actually make advertising revenue from their blog. They sell $10,000+ subscriptions to multimillion/multibillion businesses for retailer data and analysis.You're in the business of getting people to click on your site and generate discussion with these prediction articles, and predicting "continued dominance by PS4" just doesn't move the needle. This Switch prediction has a BIT more credence - though it will also be flat out wrong - but your statement that the Xbox One could outsell the PS4 in 2017 based on Scorpio or ANY metric, was just outright pandering and calls into question the entirety of these predictions.
Yes they are just for fun, but the Xbox over PS4 prediction (who in their right mind would think such a thing for 2017? Maybe 2013/14 when much was unknown I'd see), imo proves there are times you are just trying to be provocative/entertaining, and not necessarily correct. My suspicion is that is the case here as well.
You're in the business of getting people to click on your site and generate discussion with these prediction articles, and predicting "continued dominance by PS4" just doesn't move the needle. This Switch prediction has a BIT more credence - though it will also be flat out wrong - but your statement that the Xbox One could outsell the PS4 in 2017 based on Scorpio or ANY metric, was just outright pandering and calls into question the entirety of these predictions.
Yes they are just for fun, but the Xbox over PS4 prediction (who in their right mind would think such a thing for 2017? Maybe 2013/14 when much was unknown I'd see), imo proves there are times you are just trying to be provocative/entertaining, and not necessarily correct. My suspicion is that is the case here as well.
Uh that's not what NPD actually does. They aren't ign or something. Mat being here is just for funsies. None of us are going to buy one of their reports just because he talks to us.You're in the business of getting people to click on your site and generate discussion with these prediction articles, and predicting "continued dominance by PS4" just doesn't move the needle. This Switch prediction has a BIT more credence - though it will also be flat out wrong - but your statement that the Xbox One could outsell the PS4 in 2017 based on Scorpio or ANY metric, was just outright pandering and calls into question the entirety of these predictions.
Yes they are just for fun, but the Xbox over PS4 prediction (who in their right mind would think such a thing for 2017? Maybe 2013/14 when much was unknown I'd see), imo proves there are times you are just trying to be provocative/entertaining, and not necessarily correct. My suspicion is that is the case here as well.
I am curious to see if Spider-Man actually gets the #10 spot.
It seems poised to do well, but IIRC Arkham Knight wasn't exactly knocking out 10 million copies (which this structurally seems fairly similar to), and Smash is presumably going to be very large at retail, even with only one month on the chart.
FIFA also puts up a pretty big showing every year.
FIFA always get on the top, at least in Europe. Its Sony making some Spider-Man bundles?I am curious to see if Spider-Man actually gets the #10 spot.
It seems poised to do well, but IIRC Arkham Knight wasn't exactly knocking out 10 million copies (which this structurally seems fairly similar to), and Smash is presumably going to be very large at retail, even with only one month on the chart.
FIFA also puts up a pretty big showing every year.
Right, I'm not saying it's a bad prediction. It's just the one I'm pondering the most about since it's a game that equally feels like it could be a major breakout or a """standard""" 5 or so million performer.Title ranking predictions are always a mess by the end of the year. A game slips, or an assumed 85 rated game comes out and it gets a 70, some game decides not to spend on marketing, or some other weirdness happens. Of anything, I'm always least confident in the title ranking predictions, but clients always ask for them. Shrug.
NPD would be US only, which is why it's a bit more up in the air.FIFA always get on the top, at least in Europe. Its Sony making some Spider-Man bundles?
Oh my lmaoYou're in the business of getting people to click on your site and generate discussion with these prediction articles, and predicting "continued dominance by PS4" just doesn't move the needle. This Switch prediction has a BIT more credence - though it will also be flat out wrong - but your statement that the Xbox One could outsell the PS4 in 2017 based on Scorpio or ANY metric, was just outright pandering and calls into question the entirety of these predictions.
Yes they are just for fun, but the Xbox over PS4 prediction (who in their right mind would think such a thing for 2017? Maybe 2013/14 when much was unknown I'd see), imo proves there are times you are just trying to be provocative/entertaining, and not necessarily correct. My suspicion is that is the case here as well.
Math done by Ryng Manuel Tolu: (https://www.resetera.com/threads/ma...ictions-closes-tuesday-june-12th.46649/page-6 post 275)
2018 sales up to May
PS4 ~ 1.53 million
NSW ~ 1.20 million
XB1 ~ 1.13 million
No information on June so far
Thanks =)About:
PS4 - 1.52m
SWI - 1.19m
XB1 - 1.13m
EDIT: Already included above. Note that NPD won't be announcing June results until early August (July results will come a few weeks later).
Even if he's wrong, the Switch prediction has a really good chance of happening. That's hardly a provocative prediction unless you're incredibly insecure about who wins in video game sales.You're in the business of getting people to click on your site and generate discussion with these prediction articles, and predicting "continued dominance by PS4" just doesn't move the needle. This Switch prediction has a BIT more credence - though it will also be flat out wrong - but your statement that the Xbox One could outsell the PS4 in 2017 based on Scorpio or ANY metric, was just outright pandering and calls into question the entirety of these predictions.
Yes they are just for fun, but the Xbox over PS4 prediction (who in their right mind would think such a thing for 2017? Maybe 2013/14 when much was unknown I'd see), imo proves there are times you are just trying to be provocative/entertaining, and not necessarily correct. My suspicion is that is the case here as well.
Or sry, forget that. FIFA really don't shiny in USA. Thx to remind me.NPD would be US only, which is why it's a bit more up in the air.
It has made #10 in the US some years though! Lots of growth lately.Or sry, forget that. FIFA really don't shiny in USA. Thx to remind me.
No, since this prediction doesn't have PS4 as coming out on top, it will be wrong in the end. That's how it works, didn't you know?Even if he's wrong, the Switch prediction has a really good chance of happening. That's hardly a provocative prediction unless you're incredibly insecure about who wins in video game sales.
So is Fortnite, one of the biggest games going right now not appealing to casual gamers? Because it doesn't seem to have much of that rubber banding either and yet it's a game embraced by everyone. My point is the lack of such things like items doesn't stop causal gamers enjoying and making up a large part of the player base of BOTW, Splatoon or Rabbids, kids will play such games just because they have Mario, Link and Rabbids in them.Rubber banding (or negative feedback loops) are mechanics designed to close the gap in skill level by punishing good players and rewarding bad players. Like the blue shell in Mario Kart. You can also lower the skill gap by introducing random powerful elements to make it more luck based than skill based. Kart, Party and Smash have these mechanics in spades. Splatoon arguably has a positive feedback loop, where good teams acquire more turf and subsequently also gain more movement perks.
Maybe World Cup 2018... Well thats a surprise.It has made #10 in the US some years though! Lots of growth lately.
They don't expect pokemon to be in the year end top10?
Interesting.
They said 17.5mi for all of them.
It has not. Switch outsold PS4 in January and February. PS4 outsold it March to May. Jury is out for June.I still think PS4 will be the best selling since it has outsold the Switch every single month since January 2018
It has not. Switch outsold PS4 in January and February. PS4 outsold it March to May. Jury is out for June.
Ah, alright.
So Nintendo has the best-selling console of the year but doesn't manage a single top 10 seller for the year?
That's kinda fascinating.
Considering Mario Kart never exited top 10 and had no digital, I can call that a possibility. Albeit doing that in a month is next to impossible.Well, we don't track digital software sales data on Nintendo platforms which impacts this list. If we did, I think Smash would make this list, for example.
Well, we don't track digital software sales data on Nintendo platforms which impacts this list. If we did, I think Smash would make this list, for example.
That makes a sense. I was definitely wondering how Let's Go wouldn't be projected to crack the top 10.A combination of no digital for Nintnedo, as well as thw game being split up into 4 skus at retail(Pokemon Eevee, Pokemon Pika, Pokemon Pika+Pokeball, Pokemon Eevee+Pokeball).
Pokemon games usualy sell 55/45 between the two versions, so if these two hit NR11 and NR12 they are out of the top 10, even if combined they could be in the top 5.
Kinda prefer japanese trackers for that reason, since they combine both versions in their reports.
I think it's been rising over the last year, but we don't have an actual number yet.
I'm not really sure what that is meant to mean? Yes it's a prediction and yes predictions can be wrong, otherwise Mat would be a very rich man by now if he got everything right. It's just his personal opinion on how he thinks sales will play out for the rest of the year.
You definitely know more than the experts.
I have to imagine that has been accounted for.
In general, if Era or the stock market say something about Nintendo, expect the exact opposite.
I see posters with thinly veiled agendas are here to try and imply fanboyism and what not here.
Pro tip, guys: the only fanboys are you. You just get mad when others are not fanboys of the same things as you.
When your post amounts to "lol nah, PS4 will sell more", yes I will call it out.From the first page and OP when someone disagreed with Matt's prediction.
But truly it's everyone else is a fanboy and has an agenda for not agreeing switch will end up selling the most this year.
Total digital rate for Nintendo(though it is across all platforms, meaning the 3DS where it is lower, the Switch where it is higher, and the WiiU which is dead) is at 17.3% as of March 31 2018.
You can find that number in the Suplementary Information they release alongside their earnings release every quarter, though i think that is a new thing they only just added in more recent reporting.
That's cool but the agenda thing can be said to anyone. Some will disagree. Personally I think it'll be so close that it won't even really matter all that much. Sony will be happy just meeting targets, they already know the Switch is on fire and only going to ramp up closer to those big games.When your post amounts to "lol nah, PS4 will sell more", yes I will call it out.
Notice that more reasonable arguments about why the PS4 may sell more in this thread were not contested by me.
Wait, why would you.