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LegendofLex

Member
Nov 20, 2017
5,473
Just a reminder that this is a thing:

This is a year after the Wii's launch, mind.
This is also kind of an apples to oranges comparison, given how out of sync the hardware release cycles are. A Switch-PS4 comparison in Year 2 of Switch and Year 5 for PS4 isn't going to shake out the same as a Wii-PS3-Xbox comparison in Years 2 (for PS3/Wii) and 3 (for Xbox).

For the first time in a while, Nintendo will be at the top of the console market in North America. Not as crazy, but still a testament to the Switch's success. The fact that there's only one Switch game predicted to be in the top 10 makes it even more impressive.
No Switch games are predicted to be in the top 10.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,315
Nashville
What's amazing is that the prediction of Switch being the #1 selling console this year has been called either a very obvious, easy prediction or the dumbest prediction ever made. Now that's amazing. And pretty funny.
I just find it weird how before E3 people were saying it would get there with Fire Emblem, Pokemon, and Smash Bros. Then after when Mario Party gets announced for October and Fortnite and Warframe are coming to it, these games won't be able to help? It's kinda strange.

I feel like a holiday lineup of:

Pokémon Let's Go
Super Mario Party
Super Smash Bros Ultimate
Warframe
Fifa19
NBA2k19
DBZFighters
Torna the Golden Country

Is very strong and can get the Switch there.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
What's amazing is that the prediction of Switch being the #1 selling console this year has been called either a very obvious, easy prediction or the dumbest prediction ever made. Now that's amazing. And pretty funny.

Schrodinger's prediction.

Wait, maybe it's even Schrodinger's console, simultaneously a surprising hit and an obvious success.

No Switch games are predicted to be in the top 10.

Switch is getting NBA2k19.
 

Instro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,048
There are levels though. I knew it would not sell as well as the Wii, but pretty much no one thought it would sell quite as badly as it did. The Wii name alone surely would get it 20 million was my thinking. Even 40-50 million would have been a huge drop from the Wii, but to sell only 13% of its predecessor? Insane.

Oh sure, I don't think anyone could have predicted how big of a disaster it ended up being.
 

ZhugeEX

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners
Verified
Oct 24, 2017
3,099
The NPD Group's Mat Pistacella posted an update on the NPD Blog today. Some quick takeaways:
  • Switch is projected to be the highest selling console of the year (attributed to a strong final quarter thanks to Pokemon and Smash)
  • All three consoles will sell over 4 million units in US this year
  • Cumulatively, the consoles will sell 17.5 million units in the US, leading to the highest total in the market since 2012
Console hardware being at its highest since 2012 is extremely impressive. The PS4 has performed extremely well each year and Xbox One is doing great this year thanks to the One X launch and other initiatives. Switch is positioned to have a really strong holiday quarter so it'll be interesting to see what sort of numbers it can pull then.

  • In spite of the doom and gloom, physical video game software dollar sales will finish the year with growth of at least 8 percent when compared to a year ago, while digital full-game sales will continue to grow at double digit percentage rates.
I think this is a fairly interesting statistic to point out in the console space. There was a point where packaged software releases and dollar sales were declining but it seems that there has been a rebound lately led by a strong Nintendo as well as new opportunities for digital indie developers at retail. Not to mention that retail is still a viable distribution model for console. Digital sales being up is to be expected and it's been really interesting to see multiple titles over the past year that now have 50% or more digital share at launch.

  • Fortnite continues to drive growth and revenue
  • Plus, you can see the projected Top 10 software sales below:
Fortnite is certainly a huge driver, but I do have to admit it's a bit funny that one of the biggest drivers in the console space isn't covered by NPD in its actual tracking. I'll admit that it's great we finally have digital sales factored in via some publishers but I do feel the NPD releases each month fail to show just how big the console and PC games industry is in the US by being unable to track digital sales from non Steam PC stores, certain publishers, free to play games, subscription services and post launch monetisation. I'm conscious that NPD/EEDAR estimate this data in other paid for reports but it would be nice to get some public data on the console and PC games landscape instead of being limited to full game software sell through rankings. I know I'm pretty much talking into the void here given how closed off the games industry is to public sales data unlike the movie industry. But it would be nice.
 
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Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
ZhugeEX is it possible that Sony have underestimated the PS4 in their forecast? It's is currently up YoY I believe and I don't think there is a reason to think it will perform worse in the rest of the year by the software support it has, is it different worldwide or Sony read things wrong?
 

Deleted member 2785

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,119
Fortnite is certainly a huge driver, but I do have to admit it's a bit funny that one of the biggest drivers in the console space isn't covered by NPD in its actual tracking. I'll admit that it's great we finally have digital sales factored in via some publishers but I do feel the NPD releases each month fail to show just how big the console and PC games industry is in the US by being unable to track digital sales from non Steam PC stores, certain publishers, free to play games and post launch monetisation. I'm conscious that NPD/EEDAR estimate this data in other paid for reports but it would be nice to get some public data on the console and PC games landscape instead of being limited to full game software sell through rankings. I know I'm pretty much talking into the void here given how closed off the games industry is to public sales data unlike the movie industry. But it would be nice.

It would be nice. Working on some things now to try to help with some of these things. But yeah, swimming upstream for sure.
 

sora bora

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,572
Not really. The PS3 was a nuclear bomb for two years and only got to its total (still coming last in the generation from the numbers we have) through sheer attrition and massive reinvestment by Sony on an insane scale to the tune of ~$5 billion net in losses. PS3 wiped out the entire profits of the PS2. So they had a good run with two consoles, the greatest money loser of all time for the third, and rebounded with the fourth, so I wouldn't call it consistent in any way.

I can't speak to profits. In terms of total hardware sold and market share, however, it seems remarkable and - as someone else posted - unprecedented.

PSOne: ~100m
PS2: ~150m
PS3: ~80m
PS4: ~100m+ seems a safe bet

Can anyone come close to that?

Market share would also be important but I don't have those numbers off the top of my head.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
Santa Albertina
What's amazing is that the prediction of Switch being the #1 selling console this year has been called either a very obvious, easy prediction or the dumbest prediction ever made. Now that's amazing. And pretty funny.
I don't see how it won't be the #1 this year... it will do over 6m.

So by that logic is the XBox One X still an XBox One and therefore 5 years old too?
There is a big difference between a new console and updated model... the new console will always have more potential than a updated model.

X and Pro are a updated premium model for XB1 and PS4... most gamers won't upgrade because they run the same games... that exactly why PS4 Slim and XB1 S are the top seller SKUs of each brand (> 70% of the sales).
 

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
I don't really understand what the problem is.

The 1X is one year old but it's still part of the Xbox one family which is 5 years old by now.
 

Horror

Banned
Nov 3, 2017
1,997
I don't really understand what the problem is.

The 1X is one year old but it's still part of the Xbox one family which is 5 years old by now.

I don't get your logic. You're saying it's no surprise that the Switch is besting a 5-year-old product when it underwent a refresh less than 2-years ago in addition to being able to play a superior library of games from its predecessor. What does the age have to do with it unless you're arguing the PS4 has reached a consumer saturation point.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828

Boiled Goose

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
9,999
I can't speak to profits. In terms of total hardware sold and market share, however, it seems remarkable and - as someone else posted - unprecedented.

PSOne: ~100m
PS2: ~150m
PS3: ~80m
PS4: ~100m+ seems a safe bet

Can anyone come close to that?

Market share would also be important but I don't have those numbers off the top of my head.

The closest is probably Nintendo in the portable space. Maybe in some cases less units, but probably far higher net profit.b
 

Saint-14

Banned
Nov 2, 2017
14,477
I don't get your logic. You're saying it's no surprise that the Switch is besting a 5-year-old product when it underwent a refresh less than 2-years ago in addition to being able to play a superior library of games from its predecessor. What does the age have to do with it unless you're arguing the PS4 has reached a consumer saturation point.
It did, that's why they are expecting to sell 3-4 million less this year, they are over 80 million PS4s out in the wild now, that's really not an easy number to get and selling another 30-40 million should be harder than the first 80.

Also, a mid gen refresh isn't really a new generation, I doubt it could have that big of an effect on hardware sales.
 

ethomaz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
Santa Albertina
What's the total for Switch so far this year?
1.3m or more? I don't know... June is not out yet but H1 is really slow in sales for any console.

I still believe Switch won't hit the 20m target WW for the fiscal year but that is not because it won't sell more this year it is just that the target is too high for the software output imo.

It will do around 18-19m for the fiscal year... 3-4 million UP compared with last fiscal year and US alone will be UP too.

I can't see Switch doing less than 6 million this year in US... Nov + Dec alone will do more than half of these 6 million.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
1.3m or more? I don't know... June is not out yet but H1 is really slow in sales for any console.

I still believe Switch won't hit the 20m target WW for the fiscal year but that is not because it won't sell more this year it is just that the target is too high for the software output imo.

It will do around 18m for the fiscal year... 3 million or more UP compared with last fiscal year and US alone will be UP too.

I can't see Switch doing less than 6 million this year in US.
Hmmm. Yeah, that sounds reasonable. I imagine that if they do hit 20 million, it will be on the back of Japan giving them that edge that the PS4, for instance, lacks (so even a slightly lower than expected total in the west can be made up for by strong Japanese sales).
 

ethomaz

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
4,851
Santa Albertina
Hmmm. Yeah, that sounds reasonable. I imagine that if they do hit 20 million, it will be on the back of Japan giving them that edge that the PS4, for instance, lacks (so even a slightly lower than expected total in the west can be made up for by strong Japanese sales).
Japanese sales can't do big difference because the numbers are lower... to hit these 20 million Switch needs around 5 million more than last fiscal year and Japan can't give that.

Switch will sell more than last year in US, Japan and Europe... that is how it will close these 5 million to catch the 20 million target.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
Japanese sales can't do big difference because the numbers are lower... to hit these 20 million Switch needs around 5 million more than last fiscal year and Japan can't give that.

Switch will sell more than last year in US, Japan and Europe... that is how it will close these 5 million to catch the 20 million target.
That's what I meant, yeah. So, let's say Switch gets 3 million units more than last fiscal year from Europe and North America, I'm saying Japan can provide the other 2 million in difference.
 
Oct 26, 2017
6,315
Nashville
Kinda curious how Switch software will continue to do with these estimate of 6 Million plus.
I could see games like Captain Toad and Mario Party passing a Million by the end of the year in the US alone(especially Mario Party).
 

Deleted member 11008

User requested account closure
Avenger
Oct 27, 2017
6,627
Yeah, there we have:
  • Gameboy: 120 million
  • Gameboy Advance: 84 million
  • Nintendo DS: 154 million
  • Nintendo 3DS: 73 million
It's an amazing run, and Switch will probably add to it.

GameBoy is counting the original, Pocket and Color (and whatever SKU I forgot), right?

Uhm, that put the GBA in a impressive perspective, actually. If only because their legs were shorten by the DS.
 
OP
OP

Deleted member 249

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
28,828
GameBoy is counting the original, Pocket and Color (and whatever SKU I forgot), right?

Uhm, that put the GBA in a impressive perspective, actually. If only because their legs were shorten by the DS.
Yeah, the actual breakdown there would be about 62 million for Gameboy classic, and 58 million for Gameboy Color (or something like that), I believe (which in turn would imply that the 3DS has already outsold Gameboy and Gameboy Color, if we were to split their sales like that).
 

D.Lo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,348
Sydney
I can't speak to profits. In terms of total hardware sold and market share, however, it seems remarkable and - as someone else posted - unprecedented.

PSOne: ~100m
PS2: ~150m
PS3: ~80m
PS4: ~100m+ seems a safe bet

Can anyone come close to that?

Market share would also be important but I don't have those numbers off the top of my head.
Pretty much anyone could force sell 80 million consoles if they were willing to lose five billion US dollars to do so. PS3 lost enough money to crater Sega as a company ten times over. PS3 lost money that would bring even the cash-rich (but much smaller company) Nintendo to their knees. So of course it's unprecedented. Almost no other company on earth has the resources to lose five billion on a single product and keep going. Only one other company has also done such a thing, Microsoft, who have done it twice on a slightly smaller scale (maybe three times).

Yeah, the actual breakdown there would be about 62 million for Gameboy classic, and 58 million for Gameboy Color (or something like that), I believe (which in turn would imply that the 3DS has already outsold Gameboy and Gameboy Color, if we were to split their sales like that).
We don't fully know the breakdown, but personally I agree they should be separated. It's a bit different though as GBC was a stopgap product.

(also it's always Game Boy, two words ;) )
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
29,003
Not really. The PS3 was a nuclear bomb for two years and only got to its total (still coming last in the generation from the numbers we have) through sheer attrition and massive reinvestment by Sony on an insane scale to the tune of ~$5 billion net in losses. PS3 wiped out the entire profits of the PS2. So they had a good run with two consoles, the greatest money loser of all time for the third, and rebounded with the fourth, so I wouldn't call it consistent in any way.

I see some interesting takes on PS3 and PS4 Pro in here, lol.

Yea the PS3 lost Sony mountains of money. They also fought tooth n nail to stay relevant, and for mindshare. That paid off huuuge for this gen. MS did too, they just bet on the wrong horses for this gen.

Meanwhile the Wii U, while it made Nintendo profit (?), was an absolute train wreck in sales. Games that released on it are seeing new life on the Switch. If the Switch would have bombed too, there's no telling what Nintendo plans would be for the rest of this gen or the next.

As far as sales, yes PlayStation home console sale are consistent. For the PS3 to wind up where it did in sales is amazing. That Sony still supported it with exclusives the same year the PS4 launched, yeah...they had a plan and its paying off now.


I don't really understand what the problem is.

The 1X is one year old but it's still part of the Xbox one family which is 5 years old by now.

Its like ppl dont remember the New 3DS. Anyone remember the New 3DS? Was it not still a 3DS? I think the base 3DS outsold it like the base PS4 and XBO vs the Pro and 1X.


The PS4 Pro, and One X. Yes they are held back by the base consoles. They are souped up versions of the base consoles. They are like revisions from previous gens but more.

Sony is about to launch its next gen PS in a few years. I would be worried as a Nintendo fan if the Switch wasnt selling as well or or better than it. It should be if they put out a decent product. The fact that the Switch is besting the XBO right now tho is....something.



....the PS4 will probably be discontinued before the next Switch comes out.....the Pro probably before that.


For the PS4 to still be selling as well as it is right now is impressive. With Sony not trying to win NPD with price cuts.

Dont really get the comparisons with the Switch and Pro, 1X either. The PS4 might still count for 1/5 of PS4 sales... the 1X maybe a lil more. Why even bring them up?
 

D.Lo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,348
Sydney
I see some interesting takes on PS3 and PS4 Pro in here, lol.

Yea the PS3 lost Sony mountains of money. They also fought tooth n nail to stay relevant, and for mindshare. That paid off huuuge for this gen. MS did too, they just bet on the wrong horses for this gen.

Meanwhile the Wii U, while it made Nintendo profit (?), was an absolute train wreck in sales. Games that released on it are seeing new life on the Switch. If the Switch would have bombed too, there's no telling what Nintendo plans would be for the rest of this gen or the next.

As far as sales, yes PlayStation home console sale are consistent. For the PS3 to wind up where it did in sales is amazing. That Sony still supported it with exclusives the same year the PS4 launched, yeah...they had a plan and its paying off now.
There's this thing called context.

PS1 - huge hit, easily won its generation and had a huge tail after its successor was out, made lots of money
PS2 - mega hit, dominated its generation and had a huge tail after its successor was out, made lots of money
PS3 - bomb at the start, crawled to its total over a cold-war prolonged generation through massive reinvestment and losses, came third in its generation, sales collapsed after successor was out, lost more money than any other console in history
PS4 - big hit, easily won its generation, made lots of money

That's not what I call consistency.
 

McScroggz

The Fallen
Jan 11, 2018
5,973
There's this thing called context.

PS1 - huge hit, easily won its generation and had a huge tail after its successor was out, made lots of money
PS2 - mega hit, dominated its generation and had a huge tail after its successor was out, made lots of money
PS3 - bomb at the start, crawled to its total over a cold-war prolonged generation through massive reinvestment and losses, came third in its generation, sales collapsed after successor was out, lost more money than any other console in history
PS4 - big hit, easily won its generation, made lots of money

That's not what I call consistency.
PS1 - Released in December '94 in Japan, successor launched in March '00 in Japan. Sold roughly 104 million units and was the highest selling console that generation (it's important to note the other competitors were far less successful in the home market). Part of the identity of the console was the disk drive, making CD's the primary platform to deliver games and gave the console extra media functionality. So five and a half years on the market before it was replaced.


PS2 - Released in March '00 in Japan, successor launched November '06. Sold roughly 158 million units and was the highest selling console that generation (it's important to note that competitors were far less successful in the home market). Part of the identity of the console was the DVD drive, making DVD's the primary platform to deliver games and gave the console extra media functionality. So six and a half years on the market before it was replaced.


PS3 - Released in November '06, successor launched November '13. Sold roughly 87 million and was the second highest selling console (it's important to note that this generation was the first in a long time to have not just two, but three competitors all sell a lot of units). Part of the identity of the console was the Blu-ray drive, making Blu-rays the primary platform to deliver games and a Blu-ray drive would become ubiquitous for modern devices at least in some part due to Sony's efforts. So seven years before it was replaced.


PS4 - Released in November '13, possible replacement in 2020 (maybe 2019). It released in the nascent stages of 4K media and neither HD console was prepared to make the leap to have a 4K drive, though by now PlayStation and Xbox cemented themselves as fully realized media consumption devices by this point. It has sold roughly 80 million, and will undoubtedly sell 100 million units by 2020 and will be the highest selling console of its generation (it's important to note that the competition was far less successful in the home console market). If the release window is accurate, it will be replaced between six years or seven years after release.


So, three out of the four generations it was the highest selling console of all time, with the PS3 being the second highest of its generation and selling almost 90 million units then. Three out of the four generations it played an integral role in standardizing the delivery method for physical media. The console life cycles lasted 5 1/2, 6 1/2, 7 and 6-7 years respectively.


So I would say that's pretty consistent. I suppose you can make the argument that the net loss for PS3 sales for most of the generation hurts the consistency of Sony, but are they not allowed a single outlier?


For comparison, every Nintendo home console sold worse than its predecessor from the SNES all the way to the GameCube to the point where if the Wii would have continued that trend its almost certain Nintendo would have abandoned the home market or been forced to do something drastic, but let's keep that in the alternate timeline. The the Wii was a huge smash. Then the Wii U was Nintendo's worst selling home console ever. And now the Switch is among the fastest selling consoles of all time and while we don't know what it's lifetime sales will look like because of the odd situation it finds itself in being the most powerful handheld on the market but a low powered hybrid console that will soon be up against two new consoles launching as the shine of the Switch being the new thing will have started to wear off. Mind you I'm NOT saying the Switch will fall off a cliff or even necessarily see a meaningful decline, just that we don't know what to expect. Nintendo hasn't had the financial disaster that the PS3 was for years (to my knowledge), but would I call them consistent? No. Certainly not recently.


And Microsoft isn't better. They launched a console that sold relatively poorly, then the second generation of Xbox sold extremely well overall (although the Red Ring of Death cost them, I believe, billions of dollars in revenue), and the third generation of Xbox has been...fine. It might end at 45-55 million consoles sold.


So with Sony, the track record says they will sell a lot of consoles next generation. Maybe 80 million. Maybe 120 million. Maybe they will be the highest selling of the generation. Maybe they will finish second or a close third in a generation with two or three very competitive consoles.


So respectfully, I disagree with your assessment and find Sony to be the most consistent overall.
 

D.Lo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,348
Sydney
PS1 - Released in December '94 in Japan, successor launched in March '00 in Japan. Sold roughly 104 million units and was the highest selling console that generation (it's important to note the other competitors were far less successful in the home market). Part of the identity of the console was the disk drive, making CD's the primary platform to deliver games and gave the console extra media functionality. So five and a half years on the market before it was replaced.


PS2 - Released in March '00 in Japan, successor launched November '06. Sold roughly 158 million units and was the highest selling console that generation (it's important to note that competitors were far less successful in the home market). Part of the identity of the console was the DVD drive, making DVD's the primary platform to deliver games and gave the console extra media functionality. So six and a half years on the market before it was replaced.


PS3 - Released in November '06, successor launched November '13. Sold roughly 87 million and was the second highest selling console (it's important to note that this generation was the first in a long time to have not just two, but three competitors all sell a lot of units). Part of the identity of the console was the Blu-ray drive, making Blu-rays the primary platform to deliver games and a Blu-ray drive would become ubiquitous for modern devices at least in some part due to Sony's efforts. So seven years before it was replaced.


PS4 - Released in November '13, possible replacement in 2020 (maybe 2019). It released in the nascent stages of 4K media and neither HD console was prepared to make the leap to have a 4K drive, though by now PlayStation and Xbox cemented themselves as fully realized media consumption devices by this point. It has sold roughly 80 million, and will undoubtedly sell 100 million units by 2020 and will be the highest selling console of its generation (it's important to note that the competition was far less successful in the home console market). If the release window is accurate, it will be replaced between six years or seven years after release.


So, three out of the four generations it was the highest selling console of all time, with the PS3 being the second highest of its generation and selling almost 90 million units then. Three out of the four generations it played an integral role in standardizing the delivery method for physical media. The console life cycles lasted 5 1/2, 6 1/2, 7 and 6-7 years respectively.


So I would say that's pretty consistent. I suppose you can make the argument that the net loss for PS3 sales for most of the generation hurts the consistency of Sony, but are they not allowed a single outlier?


For comparison, every Nintendo home console sold worse than its predecessor from the SNES all the way to the GameCube to the point where if the Wii would have continued that trend its almost certain Nintendo would have abandoned the home market or been forced to do something drastic, but let's keep that in the alternate timeline. The the Wii was a huge smash. Then the Wii U was Nintendo's worst selling home console ever. And now the Switch is among the fastest selling consoles of all time and while we don't know what it's lifetime sales will look like because of the odd situation it finds itself in being the most powerful handheld on the market but a low powered hybrid console that will soon be up against two new consoles launching as the shine of the Switch being the new thing will have started to wear off. Mind you I'm NOT saying the Switch will fall off a cliff or even necessarily see a meaningful decline, just that we don't know what to expect. Nintendo hasn't had the financial disaster that the PS3 was for years (to my knowledge), but would I call them consistent? No. Certainly not recently.


And Microsoft isn't better. They launched a console that sold relatively poorly, then the second generation of Xbox sold extremely well overall (although the Red Ring of Death cost them, I believe, billions of dollars in revenue), and the third generation of Xbox has been...fine. It might end at 45-55 million consoles sold.


So with Sony, the track record says they will sell a lot of consoles next generation. Maybe 80 million. Maybe 120 million. Maybe they will be the highest selling of the generation. Maybe they will finish second or a close third in a generation with two or three very competitive consoles.

So respectfully, I disagree with your assessment and find Sony to be the most consistent overall.
My head hurts from all that spinning on the PS3. Lol at the 'blu ray drive' somehow adding any relevance.

First of all, it's officially at 83.8 million and officially came third. Unless Sony wants to release an actual final total higher than that, it came THIRD. Made up estimates are not data.

I literally said they were the most consistent sales (quote me above 'Of course it's unprecedented [consistency in sales]'), but the point is, with the PS3, that consistency was bought, not earned, when they lost five billion US dollars on it.

The numbers may have been most consistent, but the actual performance and how those numbers were achieved was far, far from consistent.

three out of the four generations it was the highest selling console of all time
lol what? PS4 will not be the highest selling console of all time unless something crazy happens.
 

jroc74

Member
Oct 27, 2017
29,003
PS1 - Released in December '94 in Japan, successor launched in March '00 in Japan. Sold roughly 104 million units and was the highest selling console that generation (it's important to note the other competitors were far less successful in the home market). Part of the identity of the console was the disk drive, making CD's the primary platform to deliver games and gave the console extra media functionality. So five and a half years on the market before it was replaced.



PS2 - Released in March '00 in Japan, successor launched November '06. Sold roughly 158 million units and was the highest selling console that generation (it's important to note that competitors were far less successful in the home market). Part of the identity of the console was the DVD drive, making DVD's the primary platform to deliver games and gave the console extra media functionality. So six and a half years on the market before it was replaced.



PS3 - Released in November '06, successor launched November '13. Sold roughly 87 million and was the second highest selling console (it's important to note that this generation was the first in a long time to have not just two, but three competitors all sell a lot of units). Part of the identity of the console was the Blu-ray drive, making Blu-rays the primary platform to deliver games and a Blu-ray drive would become ubiquitous for modern devices at least in some part due to Sony's efforts. So seven years before it was replaced.



PS4 - Released in November '13, possible replacement in 2020 (maybe 2019). It released in the nascent stages of 4K media and neither HD console was prepared to make the leap to have a 4K drive, though by now PlayStation and Xbox cemented themselves as fully realized media consumption devices by this point. It has sold roughly 80 million, and will undoubtedly sell 100 million units by 2020 and will be the highest selling console of its generation (it's important to note that the competition was far less successful in the home console market). If the release window is accurate, it will be replaced between six years or seven years after release.



So, three out of the four generations it was the highest selling console of all time, with the PS3 being the second highest of its generation and selling almost 90 million units then. Three out of the four generations it played an integral role in standardizing the delivery method for physical media. The console life cycles lasted 5 1/2, 6 1/2, 7 and 6-7 years respectively.



So I would say that's pretty consistent. I suppose you can make the argument that the net loss for PS3 sales for most of the generation hurts the consistency of Sony, but are they not allowed a single outlier?



For comparison, every Nintendo home console sold worse than its predecessor from the SNES all the way to the GameCube to the point where if the Wii would have continued that trend its almost certain Nintendo would have abandoned the home market or been forced to do something drastic, but let's keep that in the alternate timeline. The the Wii was a huge smash. Then the Wii U was Nintendo's worst selling home console ever. And now the Switch is among the fastest selling consoles of all time and while we don't know what it's lifetime sales will look like because of the odd situation it finds itself in being the most powerful handheld on the market but a low powered hybrid console that will soon be up against two new consoles launching as the shine of the Switch being the new thing will have started to wear off. Mind you I'm NOT saying the Switch will fall off a cliff or even necessarily see a meaningful decline, just that we don't know what to expect. Nintendo hasn't had the financial disaster that the PS3 was for years (to my knowledge), but would I call them consistent? No. Certainly not recently.



And Microsoft isn't better. They launched a console that sold relatively poorly, then the second generation of Xbox sold extremely well overall (although the Red Ring of Death cost them, I believe, billions of dollars in revenue), and the third generation of Xbox has been...fine. It might end at 45-55 million consoles sold.



So with Sony, the track record says they will sell a lot of consoles next generation. Maybe 80 million. Maybe 120 million. Maybe they will be the highest selling of the generation. Maybe they will finish second or a close third in a generation with two or three very competitive consoles.



So respectfully, I disagree with your assessment and find Sony to be the most consistent overall.

Agree. Especially that point about Nintendo home consoles.

There's this thing called context.

PS1 - huge hit, easily won its generation and had a huge tail after its successor was out, made lots of money
PS2 - mega hit, dominated its generation and had a huge tail after its successor was out, made lots of money
PS3 - bomb at the start, crawled to its total over a cold-war prolonged generation through massive reinvestment and losses, came third in its generation, sales collapsed after successor was out, lost more money than any other console in history
PS4 - big hit, easily won its generation, made lots of money

That's not what I call consistency.

Funny, because I was going to put that in my post.

Pretty sure the initial post you replied to the context was sales.

I literally said they were the most consistent sales (quote me above 'Of course it's unprecedented [consistency in sales]'), but the point is, with the PS3, that consistency was bought, not earned, when they lost five billion US dollars on it.


The numbers may have been most consistent, but the actual performance and how those numbers were achieved was far, far from consistent.

?

What does this even mean? lol
 
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Psrock1

Member
Oct 27, 2017
657
Sony lost a lot money during the PS3 years overall, they were not the best run company. But you are downplaying the sales numbers of the PS3, very few consoles have sold as much as the PS3, and the PS4 is the winner of it's generation, that's been done.
 

D.Lo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,348
Sydney
Agree.

Funny, because I was going to put that in my post.

Pretty sure the initial post you replied to the context was sales.
No,

The first thing I replied to did not say sales, just 'they have had an incredible run with their first four home consoles'
https://www.resetera.com/posts/10271018/

I replied it wasn't actually a good run for all four consoles because the PS3 lost so much money.

Sales was added in here, essentially removing context and pretending only consistent numbers mattered
https://www.resetera.com/posts/10275163/

And I pulled it back to my original point by adding the context back in
https://www.resetera.com/posts/10299642/
 

DukeBlue

Banned
Nov 6, 2017
1,502
Sony lost a lot money during the PS3 years overall, they were not the best run company. But you are downplaying the sales numbers of the PS3, very few consoles have sold as much as the PS3, and the PS4 is the winner of it's generation, that's been done.
The thing is you can't view the ps3 numbers in a vacuum. 83 million is super impressive, but thats nearly a 50% drop in sales from the predecessor, and billions of dollars lost on it.
 

Psrock1

Member
Oct 27, 2017
657
The thing is you can't view the ps3 numbers in a vacuum. 83 million is super impressive, but thats nearly a 50% drop in sales from the predecessor, and billions of dollars lost on it.
I am viewing it realistically as a lot of those PS2 sales happened during the PS3 years. Sony losing billions and being badly managed and still sold 83 million consoles, I see it that way.
 

D.Lo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,348
Sydney
I am viewing it realistically as a lot of those PS2 sales happened during the PS3 years. Sony losing billions and being badly managed and still sold 83 million consoles, I see it that way.
They sold that many consoles BECAUSE they lost money. It's much easier to sell something when you heavily subsidise its cost to a consumer.

The Gamecube probably cost something like $70 to manufacture and package up and distribute as of 2004. Nintendo could have 'sold' an extra 70-80 million of them for a dollar each, reached a sales total more than the PS3, and still lost less money than the PS3 did. Would it have been a success, just because it hit a 90 million 'sold' total?
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,037
Japanese sales can't do big difference because the numbers are lower... to hit these 20 million Switch needs around 5 million more than last fiscal year and Japan can't give that.

Switch will sell more than last year in US, Japan and Europe... that is how it will close these 5 million to catch the 20 million target.

Whilst Japan is smaller I could see it making up quite a big difference. I think the switch will end up selling 2-3 million more in Japan this FY and if things go well I think maybe even a little more than that.

The US I think will also see better sales by quite a way. I'll say 1-2 million.

The rest will be up to the EU and I'm not sure what to expect. SW seems to be doing good in Europe but we get so little HW numbers it's almost impossible to predict.

I agree I think it'll limp to 20 million if it makes it but I do think it has a good chance.

I think the comparison to Sonys FY forecast is interesting. Most seem very confident that not only will they reach it but may surpass it easily. I tend to agree. What's interesting is if you break it down by region. I think the switch will sell around 4 million more than the PS4 in Japan alone this FY. So basically the switch forecast and PS4 forecast are basically the same outside of Japan. Despite the PS4 clearly selling ahead of their forecast the switch still looks set to match or exceed the PS4 in the US. So unless sales are struggling outside of those regions I think the switch is in a good place to match its forecast.

When I look at it from that perspective I feel a little more confident switch will make its goal.
 

McScroggz

The Fallen
Jan 11, 2018
5,973
My head hurts from all that spinning on the PS3. Lol at the 'blu ray drive' somehow adding any relevance.

First of all, if you cannot understand the importance of the Blu-ray drive then you are being purposefully obtuse. For one thing, it's an example of the first three Sony consoles all innovating, or at least making mainstream, what would become the standard format for game releases. The PS1 and it's CD disk drive, along with the consoles massive success, meant that disk based media would be the standard going forward instead of carts. The PS2 and the DVD drive was the standard until the next generation. Microsoft bet on HD-DVD and Sony bet on Blu-ray, and clearly Sony was correct in predicting the market and while I won't pretend to know how much credit they deserve for the creation of the Blu-ray format or making it successful, it would be intellectually dishonest to suggest it was meaningless. Plus, THE reason the PS3 was so costly for consumers and lost Sony so much money is precisely because of the Blu-ray drive they were putting in PS3's in the very early stages of the format. I don't know the impact that the PS3 had in Blu-ray becoming the standard, but regardless there's a direct correlation between Sony putting Blu-ray drives in PS3's and the hemorrhaging of money during the generation.[/QUOTE]

First of all, it's officially at 83.8 million and officially came third. Unless Sony wants to release an actual final total higher than that, it came THIRD. Made up estimates are not data.

On most corners of the internet the sales data is that Sony sold about a million more units than Microsoft, but you know what? I have no idea what the hard numbers are. If your data is correct, then Sony was "third" by less than a million units while being on the market for less time than Xbox 360. Frankly, whether the PS3 was barely 2nd or barely 3rd is practically irrelevant to the larger point that Sony consoles have been by far the best selling console in three of the four generations they've been on the market, and the one time it wasn't the sales leader it was, we will just say tied for 2nd, in a generation that was pretty unique for having three consoles all selling A LOT of units and being relatively close to each other. The PS3 and Xbox 360 are essentially the 5th best selling home console of all time. The Wii is 3rd, and it's very likely the PS4 will surpass it meaning the PS3 came in 3rd, maybe, barely trailing the 5th highest selling console and being closer in lifetime sales to the presumably 4th best selling home console and the next closest to it, the NES.

And I must add, the PS3 actually didn't sell poorly for very long. It didn't make money for a while, but those are two different things.

I literally said they were the most consistent sales (quote me above 'Of course it's unprecedented [consistency in sales]'), but the point is, with the PS3, that consistency was bought, not earned, when they lost five billion US dollars on it.

I sincerely don't understand your point here. Sony invested in a format that they owned partial Copyright for. Blu-ray becoming the standard format for physical media benefited Sony in several ways and in multiple segments of the conglomerate. Products are unprofitable until they are, and the narrative that Sony bought and didn't earn their consistently incorrect and disrespectful. Quite honestly an example of a company buying sales instead of earning them would be Microsoft knowingly shipping a console with practically unprecedented failure rates to capitalize on the market, only to inevitably being forced to offer an extended warranty that reportedly lost the company billions in revenue. Frankly, your description of the PS3 is the actual spin going on here.

The numbers may have been most consistent, but the actual performance and how those numbers were achieved was far, far from consistent.

So selling the best in the generation and making a lot of profit three out of four console cycles, with the outlier being due to Sony pushing a media format it had monetary reasons to push and in a current landscape where such a situation is very unlikely to occur with the next console and might not be an issue again isn't consistent? Do you just have a ridiculously strict definition of consistent or something?

lol what? PS4 will not be the highest selling console of all time unless something crazy happens.

I meant highest selling of the generation. I figured with the context of my reply that would have been obvious but...yeah I typed some words wrong.