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BREXIT |OT| ¯\_(ツ)_/¯
- Thread starter theaface
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You need two ones for this. And as shitty as it sounds, I dont want to have the EU give the UK any extras, there would be not point for other countrys to stay afterwards. Do a Norway or become a Third-Country.
what the fuck
Why is ANYBODY still considering a Mad Max kind of Brexit? I'm starting to believe that the story about the government's plans to store massive amounts of canned food may not be the usual tabloid pap.
Why is ANYBODY still considering a Mad Max kind of Brexit? I'm starting to believe that the story about the government's plans to store massive amounts of canned food may not be the usual tabloid pap.
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guys
guys
what if Doomsday was a documentary and the virus was created while trying to genetically engineer higly productive strawberry crops to support the post-Brexit economy
guys
what if Doomsday was a documentary and the virus was created while trying to genetically engineer higly productive strawberry crops to support the post-Brexit economy
Because the EU mistakes its massive leverage to mean that the UK will take any deal they give it whether or not it is acceptable or not.
This is becoming increasingly clear in Whitehall and Westminster and they are finally kicking themself into high gear preparing for this possibility.
This is similar to what happened with Greece, only unlike Greece, the UK gets to walk away from the table and is less likely to do a 360 and sign the deal anyway.
If a deal that gives the UK what they have now but with no influence is to be tabled that is seen as a politically untenable scenario in the UK in many parliamentarian circles. Sense be damned. They need to sell some kind of victory or at least something that appears like a meaningful victory or they can't accept the deal.
The EU hasn't made this mistake at all though.
They've been making preparations for the nodeal outcome for a long time.
This is actually reality. There is not really a route to getting No Deal through parliament.
OP
OP
Apart from the ticking click. The risk of a no deal is by virtue of it becoming the default position if time runs out and nothing else is agreed. Given the deep deep divisions in parliament across both sides of the aisle, it's hard to see how any kind of a deal will get the support it needs. At the moment, I can only see a no deal or people's vote being the realistic ways forward.
I feel like the EU may agree to grant an extension before letting the UK crash out, even if it's due to May's own incompetence.
But at some point it will run out of patience.
But at some point it will run out of patience.
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OK, that's fair from a technical standpoint. My view is that it cannot get that far due to the balance of the HoC. :)
There isn't a scenario where the Tories do not chicken back into an emergency extension (or EEA deal) and you'd see the Tories implode if No Deal actually was en route late this year.
The problem is that any deal can't get through the house of commons, unless it meets Labour's 6 tests of cakey deliciousness or ERG's fantasy Brexit. They need to capitulate to a deal that makes us much more of a 'vassal state' then the chequers agreement they both oppose.
I hope that the threat of Mad Max Brexit would allow any deal to get a majority, but I'm not convinced. Too many MPs seem determined to ride the "will of the people" like Major Kong in Strangelove.
Things need to get a lot worse before they will get better.
I'm darkly amused that we are at the point where everything David Davis has ever said about Brexit is now doubted, even "It will not be a Mad Max Brexit". The Overton window is moving so fast it needs to be installed as a focusing mirror on the Galileo satellites.
I hope that the threat of Mad Max Brexit would allow any deal to get a majority, but I'm not convinced. Too many MPs seem determined to ride the "will of the people" like Major Kong in Strangelove.
Things need to get a lot worse before they will get better.
I'm darkly amused that we are at the point where everything David Davis has ever said about Brexit is now doubted, even "It will not be a Mad Max Brexit". The Overton window is moving so fast it needs to be installed as a focusing mirror on the Galileo satellites.
I wonder about the administrative cost and budget issues caused by a post-Art50 extension of talks. I kinda doubt EU would be willing to shoulder all of it, but it would be a hard sell back in the UK to have to make concessions (monetary or otherwise) for continuation of talks instead of a hard Brexit.
I also wonder, should EU just actually become the bad guy. Unilaterally plunk down a slightly customized Norway deal (Norway itself will need to get on board, and Gibraltar and GFA need solutions), pre-ratify it in the various parliaments and offer it as a three-choice last minute deal in March: instant-WTO-implosion, instant-Norway-lite, ... or painfully expensive time extension with hard time limit. Yeah, it's no way to treat an old partner, but it could give May or whoever's left in charge a way out - by adding some eleventh-hour amendments to the Norway-ish deal (that can be anticipated by EU beforehand and afterwards pushed through parliaments in short order).
I also wonder, should EU just actually become the bad guy. Unilaterally plunk down a slightly customized Norway deal (Norway itself will need to get on board, and Gibraltar and GFA need solutions), pre-ratify it in the various parliaments and offer it as a three-choice last minute deal in March: instant-WTO-implosion, instant-Norway-lite, ... or painfully expensive time extension with hard time limit. Yeah, it's no way to treat an old partner, but it could give May or whoever's left in charge a way out - by adding some eleventh-hour amendments to the Norway-ish deal (that can be anticipated by EU beforehand and afterwards pushed through parliaments in short order).
When airlines stop selling plane tickets and people are told to stockpile on food and medicines in the weeks ahead of March 2019, parliament will change their tune and accept whatever deal the EU will offer. Which is gonna be Norway.
I don't agree that the EU didn't from the start also believe cliff jump hard Brexit was a realistic scenario that may have to be contained. Farage and other lunatics have been a known quantity and already in 2016 the EU was equiped to engage in actual negotiations.
Hard Brexit is never happening, there is just too much fallout and preparations of which there is hardly any would only limit it so much. People would riot.
The UK has a really simple choice. Be a vassle state like Norway that doesn't crater the economy or keep your seat at the top table and cancel Brexit/Referendum status quo choice. Why the UK government would pick anything but the latter would be baffling, the writing is on the wall, the world only cares about the UK because it's in the EU, the US only cares about the UK because it has a seat at the table in the EU and that goes for many other countries. Any other choice is allowing the UK carcass to be picked to the bone by the US as the 51st state and who knows what other vultures swoop in. UK needs to be in the EU and would be wise to have a seat at the top table forging the EU in the future.
The UK has a really simple choice. Be a vassle state like Norway that doesn't crater the economy or keep your seat at the top table and cancel Brexit/Referendum status quo choice. Why the UK government would pick anything but the latter would be baffling, the writing is on the wall, the world only cares about the UK because it's in the EU, the US only cares about the UK because it has a seat at the table in the EU and that goes for many other countries. Any other choice is allowing the UK carcass to be picked to the bone by the US as the 51st state and who knows what other vultures swoop in. UK needs to be in the EU and would be wise to have a seat at the top table forging the EU in the future.
OP
OP
Not one ounce of sympathy for her. Let her squirm. Should never have invited that despicable excuse for a human being here just to beg for scraps from America's table.
Even if he wasn't a racist, offensive, morally bankrupt sex offender, it still shows how far we've fallen to covet a trade deal with a country that wants to bestow upon us the same chlorinated chicken and broken healthcare system that they 'enjoy'.
Even if he wasn't a racist, offensive, morally bankrupt sex offender, it still shows how far we've fallen to covet a trade deal with a country that wants to bestow upon us the same chlorinated chicken and broken healthcare system that they 'enjoy'.
I can only assume he's met with some prominent Brexiteer (Boris?), and he's doing his usual trick of parroting back the last thing he was told. I fully expect him to recite whatever Theresa May tells him before the end of the day.
Apprantely him and Boris and Nigel are friends, so any meeting is based on friendship
DD white paper has leaked, the gov will be livid, this was the white paper before chequers
https://www.conservativehome.com/pa...al-recognition-not-ongoing-harmonisation.html
https://www.conservativehome.com/pa...al-recognition-not-ongoing-harmonisation.html
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Pretty much, hard brexit by all reasonable accounts is an extremely bad scenario, and not just the type where the economy takes a hit, we are talking about food shortages, medicine shortages, oil shortages, electricity being out in northern Ireland, massive decrease in internal food crops due to a lack of workers (this is already partially happening), short of the government and everyone else pretending this isn't true by the time march comes and there is no deal, people will wake up to reality and the will of the people will be massively different once they see this.
Except the UK isn't preparing for the catastrophic no deal scenario, as such they kind of have to take what ever it is given to them, if they don't and they come out hard brexit it is just a matter of time until they hastily agree to what ever the EU gives it, hard brexit is only minimally viable with years and years of preparation, and even then it would still be way way worse than norway, and there is really no reason for the EU to bend to the UK, when it is the UK that has set the ridiculous hard lines and made the stupid decision in the first place.
That being said I'm sure the EU will throw a bone to the UK, not by giving them special treatment but probably by allowing them to call free movement something else and so on.
OP
OP
"An amazing opportunity that should be embraced". The delusion that never ever ever ends, folks. Also, that tweet, especially the end, reminds me of someone else with outlandish opinions...
There's an incredibly mealy mouthed part about future mobility between EU-U.K. which is full of platitudes about how the U.K. will be ending freedom of movement but then demands skilled worker and student mobility and ease of travel for business and tourism. Basically to attempt to appease the EU as much as possible while keeping the freedom of movement haters onside. Not much detail other than those vague aims.
The sad part is how much of this I called by myself in the weeks before the vote when it started looking very plausible leave would win. I'm sure many of us singled out NI and displaced citizens as a basically insolvable problem for a so called hard Brexit. I'm sure many of us correctly noticed that Europe had all the leverage too. I wasn't watching the debates, or the materials put out by either side and my very first thought was 'wait a second, what about the border in Ireland?'. That we're here and they still haven't figured something out for that is as depressing as it is unsurprising.
I hope Britain can still pull out of this nose dive some way some how.
This white paper is still ignoring that we've got no leverage and we never had any. Eurgh.
The Tories need to face facts that they are fucked either way, and do the least damaging thing to the country.
I hope Britain can still pull out of this nose dive some way some how.
This white paper is still ignoring that we've got no leverage and we never had any. Eurgh.
The Tories need to face facts that they are fucked either way, and do the least damaging thing to the country.
It would be clearer with us having won the thing, but even going out in the semis leaves, I think, Gareth Southgate with more political capital than Theresa May.
I genuinely love how people believe we can truly plan for a no deal.
Here's a plan, dump £100bn into the ocean, because getting all the required regulatory boards / customs systems / replacements for EU agencies etc in place is going to make that look like NOTHING.
Here's a plan, dump £100bn into the ocean, because getting all the required regulatory boards / customs systems / replacements for EU agencies etc in place is going to make that look like NOTHING.
I think you put too much faith in these people, they are going to drive us off the cliff.
OP
OP
You are surprised by this?
It's the modus operandi of politicians.
David Davis is a known cretin. A fool. A charlatan. A lazy bastard. What were people going to expect from this white paper? It wasn't exactly going to be special relativity was it? It's yet more of the same drivel and reality denial in the same vain as the diarrhoea that posh Hitler, sorry Jacobs Rees Mogg, has been spouting.
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