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Relic

Member
Oct 28, 2017
631
Producers are scared after looking at a number of box office disasters with all CG or heavily CG styles.

Final Fantasy
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow
Beowulf
The Polar Express

All relied upon heavy tech, and all were box office disappointments or outright disasters despite a lot of talent and ambition. Tom Hanks, peak Angelina Jolie era, a Final Fantasy game with bleeding edge technical achievements, and well, Beowulf I'm sure has something to brag about. But all failed, and that makes the idea box office poison in the minds of producers.
How did Polar Express fail? It seemed to do well commercially.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/The_Polar_Express_(film)#Box_office
 

Min

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,073
Miike's remake of Hari-kiri is also very fluid and epic in scale as well.



 

Arkaign

Member
Nov 25, 2017
1,991

What returns to the studio coffers from box office receipts in the US vary between 40-60%, and foreign receipts are between 20-35%. And that upper end is only achievable by AAAA muscle like Disney/Star Wars. For lower profile films, or without the negotiation/strongarm tactics from the hypercorps, the very low end of that scale applies. The high end is very rarely achieved.

So lets split the difference and say 50% domestic, 27.5% foreign :

That ends up with about 127m returns.

Now lets say they got the full Disney split (normally these returns slip rapidly week-on-week as the film ages, as they want to tilt the scales towards the theatres so they keep it on screens rather than kicking it for a newer competing release).

With the Disney-level splits : 155m returns.

Raw budget of the film : ~165M. Now add marketing, studio overhead for non-directly-related but still necessary expenditures just keeping the doors open (compare this to say calculating the profit per burger at a snack stand purely on food cost and employee hours, but not adding the rent/utilities/insurance with that number).

It gets into voodoo with "Hollywood Accounting", when they creatively claim hugely popular films are financially not profitable for various reasons such as taxation, or underhanded ways of not paying profit % in contracts to various parties if applicable.

With the Polar Express, it's more raw though : the thing just didn't make the kind of box office they wanted/needed to make a 165M budget profitable. If it was a world where the studio owned 100% of theaters and didn't have any overhead whatsoever with any theatre-related operations, then the full "box office" would come to them as gross. But as noted above, the splits are massively lower. You can safely say you need to have around double the domestic box office to be reasonably successful, and ideally much more than that.

This can lean a bit in extreme situations, such as a low budget film which fails at the box office, but ends up selling a crapton of DVDs or gets heavy TV licensing. Office Space is an example of this. Or, a film which just about breaks even at box office, but sells a crapton of merchandising. Etc.

Anyway, I recommend doing some reading on the subject, it's pretty fascinating to look at, both the surprising successes, and the staggering failures. The Polar Express is far from a mega disaster, but it probably lost well into the tens of millions overall.
 

Luminish

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
6,508
Denver
Sci-fi/Fantasy action films are all basically CG movies already, but when I look at the trailers and cutscenes posted here I do notice that having the humans and settings be CG too makes it look a lot more consistent.

Doesn't matter how good the graphics get, CG is going to look unreal because the things its representing are going to be unreal. But if you make the humans and settings a little unreal too, it all comes together better.
 

cj_iwakura

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,195
Coral Springs, FL
Dude you should totally finish it.

The end of that movie is fucking bonkers.

Shit goes fucking crazy.
I enjoyed Kingsglaive, but let's not pretend it was high art. The story jumps all over the place, and does a very poor job of explaining what the hell is going on to anyone besides the XV devout.

You can have the best CG in the industry, but it won't help if you have a crappy script. (Then again, Avatar...)
 

TemplaerDude

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,204
I enjoyed Kingsglaive, but let's not pretend it was high art. The story jumps all over the place, and does a very poor job of explaining what the hell is going on to anyone besides the XV devout.

You can have the best CG in the industry, but it won't help if you have a crappy script. (Then again, Avatar...)

They were fighting on top of giant fighting monsters it was NUTS. Shit was flying off of handles.

Nothing really makes sense unless you're really, really into the FFXV lore. I am not. Two thirds of that movie was utter nonsense. But that end, oh my god.
 

cj_iwakura

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
10,195
Coral Springs, FL
They were fighting on top of giant fighting monsters it was NUTS. Shit was flying off of handles.

Nothing really makes sense unless you're really, really into the FFXV lore. I am not. Two thirds of that movie was utter nonsense. But that end, oh my god.
Oh yeah, it's a great spectacle, but... imagine if it'd had a really tight, engrossing script. Flesh out the Kingsglaive more, spend maybe 10 minutes tops fleshing out Insomnia and the conflict with Niflheim.
 

petran79

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,025
Greece
That's that people say every 5-10 years. Every single time it's been proven that overall demographics don't change. There isn't much of a market for serious "realistic" animated films that don't focus on comedy/family audiences. There just isn't. Part of it is realizing how wide an audience you need to be successful at the box office at all. Even with ticket prices inflating to 15-20 dollars, you'll need an audience of 5-7 million people to pay that much just in America, to make 100 million at the box office. And that would be a failure, because that's the minimum cost of such an animated film in the US. To make a good looking one it's closer to 150 million now.

So lets crunch some numbers. You want to generally make 2x the budget at the domestic box office to be considered a low level of success. So that's 300 million at the box office. How many tickets is that? Not everyone wants to pay 15-20 bucks for a ticket. Some pay more, some pay less. So let's average it at like 12 bucks. 25 million tickets. That's how many asses you need to get into seats just for a minimum success. How any games even sell 25 million copies? For the record, Incredibles 2 has made 535 million at the domestic box office so far. Because it targets the whole family instead of people who like videogame cutscenes.
.


Reading those numbers, it is a pity that this Hungarian 160 minute adult animated movie took 23 years to make due to production and finance difficulties (1988-2011).

 

foxuzamaki

One Winged Slayer
Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,563
Producers are scared after looking at a number of box office disasters with all CG or heavily CG styles.

Final Fantasy
Sky Captain and the World of Tomorrow
Beowulf
The Polar Express

All relied upon heavy tech, and all were box office disappointments or outright disasters despite a lot of talent and ambition. Tom Hanks, peak Angelina Jolie era, a Final Fantasy game with bleeding edge technical achievements, and well, Beowulf I'm sure has something to brag about. But all failed, and that makes the idea box office poison in the minds of producers.
I actually think these movies would do alot better now thanks to my generation being at an age where we can have income
 

Arkaign

Member
Nov 25, 2017
1,991
I actually think these movies would do alot better now thanks to my generation being at an age where we can have income

That's the flip side of things. Hollywood is huge on trends, so as people that might have grown up really liking some of these might find themselves in position to get one made. And if it hits big-time, then it could truly open doors, and reverse the negative view.