leakers owe us their numbers. putting personal safety above the entertainment of our sales mob is absolutely selfish.
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July 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, August 14th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Yay Magicpork!
Thanks for the numbers, much appreciated.
I should've listened to Benji. Switch had a great month.
Thanks for the numbers, much appreciated.
I should've listened to Benji. Switch had a great month.
With Switch taking July, I think the safe bet is that Switch takes August as well. PS4 likely wins September through October. November is up for grabs based on deals.
And Switch is going to body everyone free in December.
And Switch is going to body everyone free in December.
So, something like that :
PS4 : 187k
Switch : 263k
X1 : 152k
3DS : 84k
Other (NES+SNES...) : 344k
I used PS4 June 2017 at 217k as a starting point.
Great month for the Switch really.
PS4 : 187k
Switch : 263k
X1 : 152k
3DS : 84k
Other (NES+SNES...) : 344k
I used PS4 June 2017 at 217k as a starting point.
Great month for the Switch really.
Essentially in line what people predicted for Switch but PS4 is way lower than average prediction. I wonder how bad the Pro shortages are and do they affect sales in meaningful way.
I think it might be that the Switch just had the best July of the generation.
Best July :
Switch : 263k - 2018
PS4 : 217k - 2015 & 2017
3DS : 189k - 2016 (thanks Pokemon Go)
X1 : 188k - 2015
Momentum + more especially its hybrid aspect can explain the success of this month.
Best July :
Switch : 263k - 2018
PS4 : 217k - 2015 & 2017
3DS : 189k - 2016 (thanks Pokemon Go)
X1 : 188k - 2015
Momentum + more especially its hybrid aspect can explain the success of this month.
I mean it's slow month anyway with not much in the way of releases. I think the PS4 just doing that fantastically all year long just raised the expectations a bit too much for this month but it still did great.
It had best July of generation already last year (222K).
Yeah. That is true too of course.
It's up yoy in a month that jar nothing really going for it. Also let's nkt act like the deal was that great and it was only amazon
Considering that it was $199 on the previous month and not only on Amazon, doesn't seem this deal could move much hardware. The fact that is up YoY again is good, but I suppose is more because of X than Prime Day.
Jeez, there's going to be an awful lot of wayward results in the predictions thread, mine included!
I am in amazement at not only the Switch's results, but the total numbers it sold ~ highest July result of this generation by 17% (compared to the PlayStation 4).
Xbox One up YoY, despite a very low number last year, and the PlayStation 4 seems to be going through a 'calm before the storm' phase before September comes.
I am in amazement at not only the Switch's results, but the total numbers it sold ~ highest July result of this generation by 17% (compared to the PlayStation 4).
Xbox One up YoY, despite a very low number last year, and the PlayStation 4 seems to be going through a 'calm before the storm' phase before September comes.
Given that the games just behind it are evergreen like Mario Kart and Zelda (that won't have their digital sales counted neither), I think that the game might pull it off. Zelda should be around 150k at most.
It's not a safe bet. I'd say currently it's 50/50. I agree with the rest of your post.
Yes, good catch ;)
21%* to be entirely accurate.
But yeah calm months, September-December will be a slaughter tho.
Well the reasoning is more that I expect Octopath to have a higher digital ratio due to shortages than Zelda or Mario Kart, which again may be high on the physical charts but probably won't be #2 and #3 when they include digital
But yeah, maybe it will stay #1. A good hardware performance certainly helps software move.
You got any sources on Octopath shortages in USA?
I only remember that it was out of stock in Japan
Yeah I got it, what I meant is that every other games (others than Octopath, MK, and Zelda) should have sold less than 150k physicially. Even with a big digital ratio like 50%, Octopath might still be able to do it. XC2 did 280k for its first month, Octopath should be around that.
It indeed faced supply issues in July :
Situation has normalized now in the US. However the game is still out of stock in Japan and the majority of Europe.
Switch 2017 x 2018
Switch is flat YoY until now. It should be up next month.
Code:
+-----+-----+-----+
|Month| 2017| 2018|
+-----+-----+-----+
| JAN | | 270k|
| FEB | | 282k|
| MAR | 906k| 308k|
| APR | 281k| 171k|
| MAY | 165k| 167k|
| JUN | 216k| 325k|
| JUL | 222k| 262k|
| AUG | 215k| 205k|
| SEP | 309k| |
| OCT | 280k| |
| NOV | 775k| |
| DEC |1500k| |
+-----+-----+-----+
| TOT |4869k| |
+-----+-----+-----+Switch is flat YoY until now. It should be up next month.
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These results show just how much impact a not-so-great E3 might have on sales. The market generally doesn't care or it cares about popular IPs like Smash and Pokémon are.
A Nintendo top-3 is amazing.
A Nintendo top-3 is amazing.
Technically this doesn't contain digital numbers so the top 3 could differ
I think the E3 was only not-so-great for enthusiasts, according to sales the mass market seemed to love it. Because the mass market loves Smash.
Okay, PS4 did poorer than I thought, i wonder why. Of course, it doesn't matter, it's going to steamroll everything come September, but the July performance seems unnaturally low to me for a system that's shown no signs of stopping so far. Were there any retail constraints that might explain this?
On the Switch front: this goes on to demonstrate that the so called "weak" E3 showing didn't hurt it. In terms of the mass market, Nintendo had exactly what they want: Fortnite, Pokemon, Smash Bros. (the latter two of which should help it cap off the year on a very strong foot). Octopath has done incredibly well, and a Switch software top three demonstrates more than anything not just the software moving power of the system, but also the incredible legs of Breath of the Wild and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.
Xbox One being up year on year is fantastic, I'm glad to see Microsoft has managed to rally at least somewhat. It remains to be seen if they can cultivate this momentum going into the next generation as well, but for now, good on MS.
On the Switch front: this goes on to demonstrate that the so called "weak" E3 showing didn't hurt it. In terms of the mass market, Nintendo had exactly what they want: Fortnite, Pokemon, Smash Bros. (the latter two of which should help it cap off the year on a very strong foot). Octopath has done incredibly well, and a Switch software top three demonstrates more than anything not just the software moving power of the system, but also the incredible legs of Breath of the Wild and Mario Kart 8 Deluxe.
Xbox One being up year on year is fantastic, I'm glad to see Microsoft has managed to rally at least somewhat. It remains to be seen if they can cultivate this momentum going into the next generation as well, but for now, good on MS.
We have the numbers, lol. Switch came in first.
30k less than its best year (2015 & 2017) that's okay-ish, July has never been a strong month for it anyways.
No deals for the Switch this month. It just kept the same (great) pace from June.
Thanks Magicpork for the information, much appreciated!
Switch number is definitely impressive, considering it's comfortably the best July of the generation. As to why, Benji's point about it being a summer boost for a handheld system might hold water, considering 3DS performed very well, too, historically in July. Other factors could be momentum built by E3, including Smash, Fortnite, Paladins and Pokémon. Hard to pin down how much each contributes, of course.
Good month all around I think. PS4 being well behind can be explained by the lack of Prime deals, and maybe a little by PS4 PRO shortages?
Switch number is definitely impressive, considering it's comfortably the best July of the generation. As to why, Benji's point about it being a summer boost for a handheld system might hold water, considering 3DS performed very well, too, historically in July. Other factors could be momentum built by E3, including Smash, Fortnite, Paladins and Pokémon. Hard to pin down how much each contributes, of course.
Good month all around I think. PS4 being well behind can be explained by the lack of Prime deals, and maybe a little by PS4 PRO shortages?
PS4 Pro was low on stock all month. As of now only Gamestop has them.
Don't know how much that would contribute to being down.
:thinking_emoji:
Hmm, but even so, PS4 Pro accounts for only 20% of all PS4 sales, no?
Most likely not a big amount still something like eg 10k to 15k would matter in these months .