Hello! This wall of numbers will be comparing the weekly average of July and August. Both of these months have 4 weeks. I have gathered high selling software and any hardware deals for August to help show how August might be impacted by certain software. You can go to previous prediction threads for the previous month's potential impacts.
Code:
2012
Xbox 360 July: 203K / 4 = 50,750
Xbox 360 August: 193K / 4 = 48,250
Weekly average down 5%
PS3 July: 139K / 4 = 34,750
PS3 August: 143K / 4 = 35,750
Weekly average up 3%
3DS July: 129K / 4 = 32,250
3DS August: 179K / 4 = 44,750
Weekly average up 39%
Notable Releases in August
3DS
Red + Black 3DS XL $199 [1 week]
Blue + Black 3DS XL $199 [1 week]
New Super Mario Bros. 2 [1 week] [240K]
Kingdom Hearts 3D: Dream Drop Distance [4 weeks] [>200K]
Code:
2013
Xbox 360 July: 107K / 4 = 26,750
Xbox 360 August: 96K / 4 = 24,000
Weekly average down 10%
PS3 July: 79K / 4 = 19,750
PS3 August: 71K / 4 = 17,750
Weekly average down 10%
3DS July: 150K / 4 = 37,500
3DS August: 130K / 4 = 32,500
Weekly average down 13%
Notable Releases in August
Xbox 360
Madden NFL 25 [1 week]
Saints Row IV [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist [2 weeks]
Disney Infinity [2 weeks]
PS3
PS3 Super Slim 12GB $199 [3 weeks]
Madden NFL 25 [1 week]
Saints Row IV [2 weeks]
Tom Clancy's Splinter Cell: Blacklist [2 weeks]
Disney Infinity [2 weeks]
Tales of Xillia [4 weeks]
3DS
Black XL $199 [3 weeks]
Mario & Luigi: Dream Team [3 weeks] [190K]
Code:
2014
Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Xbox One August: 159K / 4 = 39,750
Weekly average up 21%
PS4 July: 187K / 4 = 46,750
PS4 August: 190K / 4 = 47,500
Weekly average up 2%
3DS July: 108K / 4 = 27,000
3DS August: 91K / 4 = 22,750
Weekly average down 16%
Xbox 360 July: 54K / 4 = 13,500
Xbox 360 August: 50K / 4 = 12,500
Weekly average down 7%
PS3 July: 32K / 4 = 8,000
PS3 August: 27K / 4 = 6,750
Weekly average down 16%
Notable Releases in August
Xbox One
Madden 15 bundle $399 [1 week] [41K]
Madden 15 [1 week] [>297K]
Diablo 3 [2 weeks] [<112K]
PS4
Madden 15 [1 week] [>385K]
Diablo 3 [2 weeks] [<156K]
Xbox 360
Madden NFL 15 [1 week] [>242K]
PS3
Madden NFL 15 [1 week] [>176K]
Code:
2015
Xbox One July: 188K / 4 = 47,000
Xbox One August: 200K / 4 = 50,000
Weekly average up 6%
PS4 July: 217K / 4 = 54,250
PS4 August: 208K / 4 = 52,000
Weekly average down 4%
3DS July: 110K / 4 = 27,500
3DS August: 77K / 4 = 19,250
Weekly average down 30%
Notable Releases in August
Xbox One
40-Inch 1080p TV Bundle $499 at Best Buy [1 week]
Madden 16 1TB Bundle $399 [2 weeks]
Gears of War Ultimate Edition 500GB Bundle $349 [1 week]
Madden 16 [1 week]
Gears of War Ultimate Edition [1 week]
Rare Replay [4 weeks] [<109k]
PS4
Madden 16 with every PS4 for free at Gamestop and Amazon [1 week]
Madden 16 [1 week]
3DS
2DS price drop to $99 announced on August 20th for August 30th [10 days]
Code:
2016
Xbox One July: 171K / 4 = 42,750
Xbox One August: 275K / 4 = 68,750
Weekly average up 61%
PS4 July: 161K / 4 = 40,250
PS4 August: 160K / 4 = 40,000
Weekly average down 1%
3DS July: 189K / 4 = 47,250
3DS August: 142K / 4 = 35,500
Weekly average down 25%
Notable Releases in August
Xbox One
Xbox One S 2TB $399 [4 weeks]
Xbox One S Halo 5 + Halo MCC 500GB bundle $299 [1 week]
Xbox One S Madden 17 + 1 month EA Access 1TB bundle $349 [1 week] [16K]
Total [<160K]
Madden 17 [1 week]
PS4
Madden 17 [1 week]
No Man's Sky [3 weeks] [508K]
3DS
New 3DS $149 [3 weeks]
Super Mario 3D Land Special Themed New 3DS Bundle $149 [1 week]
Code:
2017
Xbox One July: 131K / 4 = 32,750
Xbox One August: 116K / 4 = 29,000
Weekly average down 11%
PS4 July: 217K / 4 = 54,250
PS4 August: 190K / 4 = 47,500
Weekly average down 12%
Notable Releases in August
Xbox One
Madden 18 500GB Bundle $279 [1 week]
Madden 18 [1 week]
PS4
Target only 500GB Bundle $269 [2 weeks]
Madden 18 [1 week]
Uncharted: Lost Legacy [1 week]
Code:
2018 July Weekly Averages
Switch: 262K / 4 weeks = 65,500
PS4: 187K / 4 weeks = 46,750
Xbox One: 152K / 4 weeks = 38,000
Notable Releases in August
Switch
Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate [1 week]
Xbox One
Gamestop Deal - Trade in XB1, Switch, or PS4 and get up to $300 towards Xbox One X Offer valid 8/8 - 8/28
Gamestop Deal - Free game deal Aug 10-18
Madden 19 [4 weeks]
PS4
PS4 Pro 500 Million Limited Edition 2TB $499 [August 24th]
Madden 19 [4 weeks]
Notes:
Welcome to Madden Month. Usually the only noteworthy release, sometimes it can lift Xbox and PS over July but this game only counters the downward trend in sales continuing from July.
When looking back to the whole of 7th gen (360/PS3) August went up thanks to hardware related events like price cuts and new revision releases.
2007: Xbox 360 went up thanks to price drops on all three SKUs
2009: Xbox 360 went up thanks to price drops on the Pro and Elite SKUs, PS3 dropped to $299 and the Slim saw early sales at the tail end of August.
2010: PS3 went up thanks to the release of the $299 160GB SKU
2011: Xbox 360 went up for some reason. This year's Madden was an early September release. PS3 went up thanks to a $50 price cut to the Slim down to $249.
2012: PS3 went up for some reason as well. This year's Madden was also an early September release so maybe it has something to with that but the 360 went down in the same period.
Xbox 360 saw three instances of higher weekly average in August from July. 2007, 2009, and 2011. '07 and '09 were thanks to price drops, '11 is ???.
3 / 8 times August saw a weekly average rise which averaged +27%. When looking at the years it dropped, that averages -8%.
PS3 saw four instances of higher weekly average in August from July. 2009, 2010, 2011, and 2012. '09, '10, and '11 were all thanks to price drops and new model launches. '12 is ???
4 / 7 times August saw a weekly average rise which averaged +33%. When looking at the years it dropped, that averages -15%.
Xbox
So while Xbox One doesn't have the best drops going from June to July thanks to June deals, August usually improves over July thanks to bundles. 2014 had a large jump thanks to it having the first Madden bundle of the gen, 2015 had a good Best Buy TV deal in the middle of the month and the release of both the Madden 15 and Gears UE bundles. 2016 had the release of the Xbox One S, so obviously that performance is something that won't be replicated again. 2017 actually saw a drop thanks to a (relatively) impressive July rise over June thanks to Amazon Prime Day.
2018 is the first time this gen where Madden is not bundled, with Xbox opting to bench it for NBA in September. Despite that, there was a pretty good up to $300 trade in deal for the Xbox One X at GameStop that lasted all month, in addition to a free game deal.
The weekly average rise is +19% with the only drop being -11% (2017) and the largest rise being +61% (2016). Without 2016, the average is +5%.
PlayStation
PS4 is pretty straight forward. Had a +2% increase in 2014 thanks to the first new Madden release after launch, -4% in 2015 from a good July thanks to GameStop and Amazon giving Madden 16 for free with every new PS4 purchase, and -1% in 2016 thanks to Madden 17 and No Man's Sky which sold 508K that month. 2017 saw the biggest drop yet thanks to a standard month following a good July that saw it going for $229 during Prime Day.
2018 is a bit strange as there are apparently PS4 Pro shortages and there was the extremely limited 500 Million PS4 Pro release for one day. 50,000 were sold worldwide so at best, ~15K would have gone to the US.
The weekly average drop is -4% with the only rise being +2% (2014) and the biggest drop being -12% (2017).
Nintendo
The 3DS averages a drop of -9% with the only rise being +39% (2012) and the biggest drop being -30% (2015).
Switch really doesn't have much this August and it's following a really good July/Prime Day. Shouldn't crash but it won't have a small drop either.
Recap
August is on average a slower month than July, even with Madden. Something like a new model launch will increase the month over July (but what month wouldn't see that). Also last year I wondered how long Xbox would continue to bundle Madden. Looks like not long!
The biggest August ever recorded during the 7th gen was the Wii with 453K back in 2008. Second biggest? Wii again with 404K back in 2007.
The biggest August ever recorded during the 8th gen was the Xbox One with 275K in 2016. Second biggest? PS4 with 208K back in 2015
