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PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Post E3 2018
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
- Start date
Goddamn - the PS5 / Scarlet are starting to sound more and more like what the PS4 Pro / Xbox Scorpio should have been. Native 4K machines for current gen games with the ability to do 60 FPS.
A real PS5/Xbox Scarlet would have the ability to do nascent / primitive ray tracing and still keep a steady fidelity on tap. Le sigh, this is the Moore's law failing.
A real PS5/Xbox Scarlet would have the ability to do nascent / primitive ray tracing and still keep a steady fidelity on tap. Le sigh, this is the Moore's law failing.
I think nowadays, and due to the nature of social media they're trying to avoid any hints/leaks as much as possible.
I have always been #team2019, even when it was just VX1 and a couple more, but lately I feel is like 50/50.
It was nice to be vindicated by Matt though (yes, he is an insider and also a moderator here in Resetera)
Glad I just stuck with base PS4 (I got tempted by Pro a few times). I will be satisfied going from base PS4 to PS5 either way.
I always remember this quote from jschreier
A new console coming next year & people haven't heard about it?
A new console coming next year & people haven't heard about it?
This is how it works.
Console games go through three phases:
1. Please god just work - devs just try to get their games running on the new platform at some non-native res.
2. We got this! - devs are comfortable with the hardware and tools, can hit native res with good frame rates.
3. Just turn down the resolution - PC games become more advanced, and to cope, consoles skimp on resolution or effects with temporal solutions or reduced effects to run at playable frame rates.
Yeah, if both consoles come out the same year, at the same price, they'll have similar specs. At most we'll have a PS4og vs Xbox One situation.
It will come down to who has the best engineers
We had two games announced as next-gen games this E3: ES6 and Starfield.
Yes, and Todd Howard blatantly announced them for nextgen hardware.
WD was unveiled to be for "current consoles and PC", while SW1313 was only showcased as a "PC game". Nobody actually had balls to even hint about nextgen consoles. Heh, I still remember the grin on Geoff's face when he unveiled SW1313. Lots of journalist now had that face when they described closed C2077 demos. :)
WD was unveiled to be for "current consoles and PC", while SW1313 was only showcased as a "PC game". Nobody actually had balls to even hint about nextgen consoles. Heh, I still remember the grin on Geoff's face when he unveiled SW1313. Lots of journalist now had that face when they described closed C2077 demos. :)
Indeed, indeed. I wanted to post those numbers but I was in the supermarket so thanks for complementing
The fact that 2018 will surpass those expectations is I think driven by the succes of Fortnite.
Another point is games. What games will they show next E3 if PS5 comes fall 2020? Same as this year minus Spiderman, and same as last year minus GoW and Spiderman. I'm sure the plan was 2019 all along.
They need something for next E3. Maybe they show the PS5 if it's launching Q1 2020, but if it's delayed even further why even bother doing a conference
It's either that or MS going for the more hardcore market with a more powerful machine.
I think it will be the first case, with MS going for the market leader goal, but it will be to high a mountain to climb....Sony has too much of a lead that will translate really well into next gen due to the nature of the digital reality we live on, so maybe MS sees that and goes for the second model
Matt has heard about it so there goes you theory.
Jason is a good journo but he thinks he knows more than he knows sometimes...thinks that people will tell him stuff that maybe they don't want to or can't tell
They're private sources. Why wouldn't they say?
The same thing they showed in 2012. Their games that aren't out yet & 3rd party games they lobbied to reveal.
It's not a theory. I'm posting his quote. & it's Matt's word vs Jason's so that's a game if he said she said.
Your assumptions definitely make sense, and I can definitely see this as being reasonable. I think a lower cost streaming device ($100-200) which is capable of playing all the games which release on the traditional console (which was confirmed in the Thurrott rumor), gives them more flexibility in their strategy for that traditional console.
Here's a question I pose: does an Xbox that has price and spec parity with PS5 improve the current status quo for Xbox? I don't think it does. MS wants to improve their relative market share, and having two devices with slightly different focuses, and importantly price points, will likely better enable them to do that, rather than trying to create a jack-of-all trades console that goes directly against PS5. Xbox has great services and features, and are building up their first party - the low cost streaming device will allow easy entry into that ecosystem. It also allows them to be an "and" device: "I'm getting a PS5 and a cheap Xbox cloud."
For the traditional console, Xbox is creating the market for a $500 console right now with the 1X. They've found a strength in having a console positioned this way, and it allows them to compete in a different way against PS4, and PS5 in the future. I think a current Xbox fan would be much more passionate about a more power, albeit more expensive, next Xbox, than they would be against a machine with parity.
Cater to a new user base with a low cost cloud device, appease the existing fan base with a powerful traditional device.
On Playstation's side, really they just need to maintain the status quo. Make a competent device for the price point and let their first party rock and roll.
OP
OP
I would add this one, too.
I voted for spring 2020, but I see late 2019 to late 2020 for any of the two consoles; not later or sooner. Obviously, one of the two releasing next year seems more spicy for the industry.
It's not literally just for the OS, but also for suspended media apps and the constantly recorded footage of what you're playing. 15 minutes of 4K video, even compressed, would take up a chunk. Plus, they want to have space for potential future additions.
Not to mention that even all that wouldn't necessarily take up 8GB, but RAM is only available in certain amounts.
You're asking the wrong question. They would not say because their employee, Sony, ask them no to say.
Why woukd they say? So Jason can make an article on Kotaku?
No no no. It would be their word if they both KNEW.
Matts knows.
Jason only knows that noone in the know has told him it's coming in 2019.
He doesn't know any internal release date
Jason is basically Socrates
Basically. That even lines up with what Matt said. At one point or another 2019 *was* the plan.
My point has always been right now, today, it's not anymore. I also don't think anybody but Nintendo is launching a console outside of the fall.
I don't think 32 GB of RAM is feasible within the cost budget they're likely working in.
If you look at consumer cost to build an equivalent system and factor in margin at the end here is what you get:
Very approximate retail costs:
CPU - Zen 2 - 8 core/16 thread (AMD 2700 equivalent) - $220 USD
GPU - Mid range equivalent to next gen AMD chip, so pretend successor i Current price of 580 is ~$225 USD
RAM - 32 GB kit $250 USD
Storage - 2TB Hard Drive $60 USD
Motherboard - $60 USD
Power Supply, Ethernet Card, and Misc - $80 USD
As the system will probably share RAM, so cost of RAM on GPU is not included we can probably decrease cost of GPU by $100 USD
Total - $795 USD - this number also excludes the R&D cost of the system, as well as the cost to actually sell the system
Retail margin on PC hardware tends to be around 10%.
AMD gross margin is ~37%, however profit margin on sales is ~6%. With a pure guess based on other business lines that means to sell at cost directly to Sony/MSFT for they would likely only see a further 10% reduction in cost
Based on the above I would guess that Sony/MSFT would pay over $600USD to build the above system, not inclusive of the cost of sale, R&D, or retail margin on the console. True cost would likely be in the $800USD range.
If i was guessing what it will actually look like we will see something like a 6 core / 12 thread Zen, 16GB-20GB of RAM, and a price of $499 USD at launch.
If you look at consumer cost to build an equivalent system and factor in margin at the end here is what you get:
Very approximate retail costs:
CPU - Zen 2 - 8 core/16 thread (AMD 2700 equivalent) - $220 USD
GPU - Mid range equivalent to next gen AMD chip, so pretend successor i Current price of 580 is ~$225 USD
RAM - 32 GB kit $250 USD
Storage - 2TB Hard Drive $60 USD
Motherboard - $60 USD
Power Supply, Ethernet Card, and Misc - $80 USD
As the system will probably share RAM, so cost of RAM on GPU is not included we can probably decrease cost of GPU by $100 USD
Total - $795 USD - this number also excludes the R&D cost of the system, as well as the cost to actually sell the system
Retail margin on PC hardware tends to be around 10%.
AMD gross margin is ~37%, however profit margin on sales is ~6%. With a pure guess based on other business lines that means to sell at cost directly to Sony/MSFT for they would likely only see a further 10% reduction in cost
Based on the above I would guess that Sony/MSFT would pay over $600USD to build the above system, not inclusive of the cost of sale, R&D, or retail margin on the console. True cost would likely be in the $800USD range.
If i was guessing what it will actually look like we will see something like a 6 core / 12 thread Zen, 16GB-20GB of RAM, and a price of $499 USD at launch.
Of which we saw nothing. Not even a pre-rendered simulated "gameplay" demo.
I don't know, maybe you do and can point me to some explanations, but I would be very surprised if those things are done in memory. Being in memory vs. disk is a plus point, yes, but I don't think the user-benefit would warrant the cost.
Remember, every single dollar saved is tens of millions of dollars extra in Sony's pockets at the end of the generation. They'd elect to save a few dollars by being conservative on OS allocation vs. users having to wait a split second longer to retrieve a recording or re-open an app.
What does that even mean? You can't argue your points so you answer with gifs? What are you, 16??
Ok, now you make me dig further
How could your point always have been that today, September 27th, 2018, the plan would not be to release in 2019??
Your point 6 months ago was that in that day, 6 months ago, the plan was not to release it in 2019. Which was wrong.
6 months ago you were not talking about what you would think 6 months in the future, the same way that today your not talking about what you will think in half a year. You're talking about what your thinking today
I mean obviously. He wrote an article about it.
Edit: lol too slow Benji, VX1 got you :P
So 2020?
I could maybe see a price difference between Sony and MS if they're in the same year. I don't think there would be if they were a year apart. If PS5 in 2019 turns out to be true, them coming out later and more expensive is a harder case to make for a new gen but who knows what their strategy maybe on pricing.
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From the sound of it Jason doesnt know shit
I'd trust what matt says over him in a heartbeat
Me too.
I wouldn't say he doesn't know shit though, but that the fact that last Aprik noone told him anything didn't necessarily mean that 2019 was not the plan.
But we're in October now so every month without significant news makes 2020 more likely...
Edit: Also Benji's words could be interpreted both ways. To me he meant that Jason has contacts, i.e. we should believe him when he says 2020
Sometimes we read too much into what insiders say and end up tripping over ourselves. This is a good example.
Benji just said that he knows people who know about PS5, and that considering Jason's position and contacts in the industry he (i.e. Benji) would think that Jason would also know people who know about the PS5 and the plans surrounding it.
There was nothing there to indicate anything about the release date. Kindly avoid putting words into insider's mouths, guys.
Mark Cerny talking about how the Pro has 1GB of DDR3 added to hold suspended media apps and free up some of the GDDR5 that does that in the normal PS4:
http://www.playstationlifestyle.net...of-extra-ps4-pro-ram-mark-cerny-explains-why/
However, it seems I was wrong about the recording. I swear I remember hearing about how the constant recording was done on RAM to avoid taxing the hard drive, but now I can't actually find anything on it. Must've been mistaken.
Man... I see a lot of doubt in Jason all of a sudden. Personally, I believe what he says because he didn't really try to definitively point to any given year. He merely suggested that based on the information (or lack thereof) available, that 2020 seems like the most likely candidate. It's also worth noting that his article doesn't necessarily conflict with what Matt said. See quote below:
I highlighted the quote from one of Jason's sources that really leaves the door open for Sony to have considered 2019.
I highlighted the quote from one of Jason's sources that really leaves the door open for Sony to have considered 2019.
Yeah since I didnt edit in time and posted when I really shouldn't have I'm here now so might as well respond
This was all I was saying. I'm not going to sit here and claim I know all the plans behind the PS5 initiative, because well I dont. But I am familiar with a few things and while I have contacts in the industry I dont have near the range someone like Jason does. So basically, if in nearly October Jason still doesn't know much of anything around it (which by now I'm willing to bet he does) then its more just his contacts specifically not sharing that information with him I'm assuming. Because word is floating around now. I'm assuming you will start seeing some pretty big rumors not a short time from now.
I mean, there is already a non small amount of next gen titles well into development
Thanks for this. Now if you on the periphery of the industry have heard stuff and know there are multiple next-gen games well into dev then it really isn't crazy for late 2019. I think mostly this is down to the Nintendo-like silence/secrecy that is throwing everyone!
I hope you are right that the juicy rumours are close...
No. Go read an IHS market estimated BOM for launch consoles. That's the closest we'll get to knowing what they're paying.
Oh goddamn man. Whilst I appreciate the info, I hope none of this will get you or people you know in trouble.
Either way, it's neat to know that we might find out more about new toys soon!
But if they delay the release till 2020 the hardware needs to be upgraded to maintain that "sweet spot" again, otherwise it would seem under-powered.
I'm under no NDA
And I haven't said anything that isnt known in circles among the business community anyways.
So in a way what happen with PS4 this gen in Japan .
Where they hold it back because of the lack of Japanese software .
Mind you it took forever to get software from over there at least next gen will be better .
That makes sense. 2019 would probably mean spending more to hit the power target and launching with less big exclusives in exchange for a head start. I think it would be fine to do that if they have enhanced PS4 BC and at least a couple of exclusives, but that's just me.
I'm amazed there hasn't been more chat from those that do know things. The build-up of Xbox One and PS4 had tonnes of insiders/friends of insiders talking. Not saying its always a good thing but there were a lot more talking.
The same silence/no rumours did occur with PS4 Pro but most think with that being only a mid-gen upgrade it was different but the same is now occurring with PS5.