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donny2112

Member
Oct 27, 2017
620
ITT, predict for the NPD September 2018 retail period (September 2-October 6, 2018) for U.S. hardware sales.

What is NPD?: NPD is one of the main retail tracking firms in the U.S., and also about the only one who specifically goes into detail on video games sales. This thread is to predict what the NPD hardware sales will be for the most recent month. NPD months are defined by the National Retail Federation (find calendar links here).
What do I win?: Bragging rights. We also keep track of predictions over the year and have an annual contest using "points." Still just bragging rights, but SalesEra followers have fun seeing how well we can do with it. See here for details on the point calculations.
Why are there still predictions when official NPD numbers are not released?
Trust me said:
To have fun? To share thoughts and speculation with a like mined group of people? To be able to communicate directly with individuals who study this industry for a living?
ethomaz said:
Since 2010 I guess we don't get official numbers anymore... that doesn't mean we don't get the numbers.

The ranking and results are based in real numbers.

Prediction entries must be in and finalized by 8 p.m. EDT on Tuesday, October 16th. Format use is required if you want your entry counted.

NPD Coverage: September 2-October 6, 2018 (5 weeks, August was 4 weeks)
NPD Physical Results Release: Thursday, October 18th @ 4 p.m. EDT (public thread with physical+digital posted 5 days later on October 23rd ~6:30 p.m. EDT)

Format:

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

Good/Bad Formatting
Code:
Good              Bad
[XB1] 200K       [XB1] 200 thousand
[XB1] 200,000    [XB1] 200.000
[XB1] 200000     [XB1] - 200000


Potential hardware impacting events in September:
PS4 Pro Spiderman bundle ($400, Sept. 7) - 30 days
Spiderman PS4 exclusive (Sept. 7) - 30 days

Prediction Format: (repeating to emphasize to use this format)

[NSW]
[PS4]
[XB1]

August's Resuts
If that's right, working from the ratios would put this year at:

August 2018 NPD
SWI: 206k
PS4: 197k
XB1: 165k

August 2017 NPD thread
July 2017 NPD thread

NPD Prediction Thread Archive
 
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Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,279
That should be august results right


I'll say xbox a lot, switch lots, ps4 a lota lots
 

Tratorn

Member
Oct 25, 2017
709
I predict that people will overestimate PS4. :P

Sure, Spider-Man will have a noticable impact but there is still a barrier for what one game can do for a 5 year old console.
 

Welfare

Prophet of Truth - You’re my Numberwall
Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,912
[PS4] 350K
[NSW] 306K
[XB1] 208K
 
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Majiebeast

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
2,090
I predict that people will overestimate PS4. :P

Sure, Spider-Man will have a noticable impact but there is still a barrier for what one game can do for a 5 year old console.

Except it already did with God of War .

PlayStation 4 set a new record for April console sales since NPD tracking first began in 1995, both in terms of units and dollars. Nintendo Wii held both previous records for April 2009 and April 2008 respectively.]

https://www.gamesindustry.biz/artic...-playstation-smash-records-in-april-npd-stats
 

patapon

Banned
Dec 7, 2017
3,614
I thought it had started to get big in the last few years, but maybe not. There's the Zlatan effect this year though!

I will be very happy if Spider-Man takes it against NBA and FIFA.

The thing is, FIFA launched on 28th so very few days will be counted for it in Sep NPD, combine that with FIFA not being a behemoth in US like it is Europe, so I can easily see Spidey topping the month. NBA will be close though, because that's a big franchise in US and very popular.
FIFA can be no.3 I think and SoTR might be below it.
 

Cladyclad

Banned
Nov 16, 2017
459
The thing is, FIFA launched on 28th so very few days will be counted for it in Sep NPD, combine that with FIFA not being a behemoth in US like it is Europe, so I can easily see Spidey topping the month. NBA will be close though, because that's a big franchise in US and very popular.
FIFA can be no.3 I think and SoTR might be below it.
2K will easily be number 1
 

Toni

Banned
Nov 13, 2017
1,983
Orlando, Florida
[PS4] 420K
[NSW] 225K
[XB1] 190K

Massive hardware boost for PS4. Spider-man had the highest chance all year of pulling that off and I'm sticking to that.

Spider-man #1 in software as well.

Easy month for Playstation.
 

v_iHuGi

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
5,155
Easiest month ever to predict (placements).

Numbers are harder though...

[PS4] 385K
[NSW] 250K
[XB1] 225K
 

Kolx

Member
Oct 25, 2017
8,505
Why do a lot of people expect a huge month for the switch? Did I miss something.
[PS4] 330K
[NSW] 245K
[XB1] 210K
 
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