Less than a month before the midterms, Democrats are fretting about the Latino vote — both the percentages they will receive, and more importantly, turnout levels — as a variable that could minimize or maximize their national gains. There is plenty of evidence that Trump's rhetoric and policies have indeed angered a lot of Latino voters. But there is counter-evidence suggesting that a durable minority of Latinos will continue to support Trump and his party, as Leon Krauze notes this week:
While Trump was enacting his anti-immigrant agenda, Latino voters seemed to have slowly warmed up to the president. In last week's NPR/PBS/Marist poll, 41 percent of Hispanics approved of Trump's performance (black Americans? 12 percent). This is no outlier. Another recent poll put Trump's approval among Latinos at 35 percent. An average of both would put Trump—again, an overtly nativist president—within about 10 points of Barack Obama's 49 percent approval among Hispanic at roughly the same time in his presidency.
Trump himself won29 percent of the Latino vote in 2016, according to exit polls, two points more than Mitt Romney did in 2012. Roughly a third of Latino voters self-identify as conservative, and a fourth self-identify as Republicans (with more being Republican-leaning independents). And there are pockets where Republican voting habits are stronger than average, notably in Florida with its traditionally pro-GOP Cuban population, and Texas, where Republicans have worked hard to win Mexican-American votes. The fast-growing minority of Latinos who are evangelical Protestants are, unsurprisingly, more prone to vote Republican, too. And while younger Latinos are more liberal than their elders, they are also less attached to the Democratic Party.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/democrats-latino-voting-problem-isnt-new-but-its-urgent.html
While Trump was enacting his anti-immigrant agenda, Latino voters seemed to have slowly warmed up to the president. In last week's NPR/PBS/Marist poll, 41 percent of Hispanics approved of Trump's performance (black Americans? 12 percent). This is no outlier. Another recent poll put Trump's approval among Latinos at 35 percent. An average of both would put Trump—again, an overtly nativist president—within about 10 points of Barack Obama's 49 percent approval among Hispanic at roughly the same time in his presidency.
Trump himself won29 percent of the Latino vote in 2016, according to exit polls, two points more than Mitt Romney did in 2012. Roughly a third of Latino voters self-identify as conservative, and a fourth self-identify as Republicans (with more being Republican-leaning independents). And there are pockets where Republican voting habits are stronger than average, notably in Florida with its traditionally pro-GOP Cuban population, and Texas, where Republicans have worked hard to win Mexican-American votes. The fast-growing minority of Latinos who are evangelical Protestants are, unsurprisingly, more prone to vote Republican, too. And while younger Latinos are more liberal than their elders, they are also less attached to the Democratic Party.
http://nymag.com/intelligencer/2018/10/democrats-latino-voting-problem-isnt-new-but-its-urgent.html
