I didn't realize that race was that close. I mean... Collins is in prison but...
I don't know what NY's recount laws are
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US PoliEra |OT12| The Moscow Project
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I didn't realize that race was that close. I mean... Collins is in prison but...
I don't know what NY's recount laws are
How are the states shaping?
Long term for the nation, state level progress is very important and could make it easier for a future Democratic federal power to implement that progression for the rest of the shit-head countries.
Long term for the nation, state level progress is very important and could make it easier for a future Democratic federal power to implement that progression for the rest of the shit-head countries.
Yeah, taking the House isn't exactly giving me comfort right now.
I'm not convinced they thought this through TBH, but we'll see
Last night was certainly a ride for me. I had generally thought that the thread was being too optimistic, especially in regards to the Senate, where there was a rough map and more potential for coin flips to go against us than for us, but I think some hopium got into my system without me noticing it, because between the returns looking bad for Donnelly once the blue areas were reporting too small margins, the struggles in Florida, and the sudden crash in 538's House odds I went into a bit of a panic like the one I did two years ago. Checked out for a bit and did some mindless gaming to occupy myself, then came back to the election and saw our position was stabilizing and felt better (as opposed to two years ago where every time I checked back in it seemed our position had deteriorated further). In the end I'd call it a decent if somewhat disappointing night. We basically did as expected in the House and a bit worse otherwise, but not really outside the expected range so much as just on the low end. I will saw, as someone who was living in Wisconsin when Scott Walker was elected and was there for most of his first term, it was immensely satisfying to see him lose.
Here in Illinois, the Dems swept the statewide races by double digits in each case. The buzz was that the Attorney General race was expected to be close based on internal polling from both sides (although the numbers themselves were never released, it came out after the election that a Democratic poll did have Raoul (D) down... in a single day of a tracking poll) and a public poll released in final weekend from a dubious pro-GOP pollster showing Raoul only up 1. The Democrats also gained seats in the General Assembly, achieving a supermajority in the State House and adding to their existing supermajority in the State Senate. This is a necessary, though not necessarily sufficient, condition to get a constitutional amendment to change the state income tax from flat to progressive on the ballot, which Governor-Elect Prtizker campaigned on.
The Illinois US House races went exactly as I expected, with Casten (IL-6) and Underwood (IL-14) winning but Kelly (IL-12) and Londrigan (IL-13) falling short. Now the only Republican to represent a district that includes the Chicago metro is Kinzinger in IL-16, which is really a downstate district that just reaches a little into the collars.
A Closer Look at the Gubernatorial Results (note there are still a handful of precincts out in Cook and McHenry County but it shouldn't really make much of a difference for this analysis):
Chicago: Pritzker won 81-15 (Quinn won 77-21 in 2014)
Suburban Cook: Pritzker won 62-34 (Quinn won 53-45 in 2014)
Cook County Total: Pritzker won 72-25 (Quinn won 64-34 in 2014)
The rule of thumb is that for a Republican to win statewide, the magic number in Chicago is 20%. Polls had shown Rauner's numbers holding up there even as he was losing overall, but obviously it didn't work out that way. Cook County has roughly 40% of the population of Illinois. You can afford to lose it by 30 if you can make up those numbers elsewhere. You can't afford to lose it by 50.
Lake County: Pritzker won 51-44 (Rauner won 58-40 in 2014)
McHenry County: Rauner won 54-40 (Rauner won 66-31 in 2014)
Kane County: Pritzker won 48-46 (Rauner won 61-36 in 2014)
DuPage County: Pritzker won 48-47 (Rauner won 61-37 in 2014)
Will County: Pritzker won 50-44 (Rauner won 56-41 in 2014)
Collar Counties Total: Pritzker won 48-46 (Rauner won 60-38 in 2014)
These numbers, along with the results in IL-6 and IL-14 should terrify the ILGOP. Running up the score in the collars has been key to Republican chances statewide going back a long time, even as those counties started going purple in presidential elections. If this realignment is filtering to downballot, then GOP chances at the state level in Illinois are going to look a lot like their presidential chances in Illinois unless they can convince their increasingly Trumpist base downstate to nominate some Charlie Baker style Moderate Darlings.
Downstate: Rauner won 50-40 (Rauner won 61-34 in 2014)
Some polls had shown an essentially tied race downstate. More or less it appears the polls overestimated Rauner in Chicago and underestimated him downstate, while getting the collars mostly right. There was a particularly high third party vote downstate with Sam McCann finishing second in several counties in his West-Central home base. One thing that is notable is the greater divergence in the collars vs. downstate compared to four years ago (R+22 vs. R+27 in 2014, D+2 vs. R+10 in 2018). There are too many counties to do a full breakdown, but Pritzker did have some notable successes this time around, including Champaign County (University of Illinois) which he won 55-38 (Rauner won 55-41 in 2014), Peoria County which he won 48-44 (Rauner won 54-41 in 2014), Rock Island County (Quad Cities) which he won 51-42 (Rauner won 51-46 in 2014) and St. Clair County (St. Louis suburbs) which he won 53-41(Rauner won 52-44 in 2014), along with victories in a few smaller counties downstate. Although Pritzker lost Winnebago County (Rockford), it was by fewer than 100 votes (Rauner won 58-38 in 2014). Likewise Pritzker fell short in Sangamon County (Springfield), losing 46-43, but that's still a big improvement over Quinn (Rauner won 56-39).
Ultimately Prtizker made gains all of the state. Quite literally, as his margin was better than Quinn's in all 102 Illinois counties. In terms of raw votes, doubling the Cook County firewall (due to an improved margin and turning out over 370K more voters) was the single biggest impact (adding roughly 385K to Pritzker's margin over Quinn), while flipping the collars (adding about 200K to the margin) and stronger downstate performance (adding about 210K to the margin) had roughly equal value.
Here in Illinois, the Dems swept the statewide races by double digits in each case. The buzz was that the Attorney General race was expected to be close based on internal polling from both sides (although the numbers themselves were never released, it came out after the election that a Democratic poll did have Raoul (D) down... in a single day of a tracking poll) and a public poll released in final weekend from a dubious pro-GOP pollster showing Raoul only up 1. The Democrats also gained seats in the General Assembly, achieving a supermajority in the State House and adding to their existing supermajority in the State Senate. This is a necessary, though not necessarily sufficient, condition to get a constitutional amendment to change the state income tax from flat to progressive on the ballot, which Governor-Elect Prtizker campaigned on.
The Illinois US House races went exactly as I expected, with Casten (IL-6) and Underwood (IL-14) winning but Kelly (IL-12) and Londrigan (IL-13) falling short. Now the only Republican to represent a district that includes the Chicago metro is Kinzinger in IL-16, which is really a downstate district that just reaches a little into the collars.
A Closer Look at the Gubernatorial Results (note there are still a handful of precincts out in Cook and McHenry County but it shouldn't really make much of a difference for this analysis):
Chicago: Pritzker won 81-15 (Quinn won 77-21 in 2014)
Suburban Cook: Pritzker won 62-34 (Quinn won 53-45 in 2014)
Cook County Total: Pritzker won 72-25 (Quinn won 64-34 in 2014)
The rule of thumb is that for a Republican to win statewide, the magic number in Chicago is 20%. Polls had shown Rauner's numbers holding up there even as he was losing overall, but obviously it didn't work out that way. Cook County has roughly 40% of the population of Illinois. You can afford to lose it by 30 if you can make up those numbers elsewhere. You can't afford to lose it by 50.
Lake County: Pritzker won 51-44 (Rauner won 58-40 in 2014)
McHenry County: Rauner won 54-40 (Rauner won 66-31 in 2014)
Kane County: Pritzker won 48-46 (Rauner won 61-36 in 2014)
DuPage County: Pritzker won 48-47 (Rauner won 61-37 in 2014)
Will County: Pritzker won 50-44 (Rauner won 56-41 in 2014)
Collar Counties Total: Pritzker won 48-46 (Rauner won 60-38 in 2014)
These numbers, along with the results in IL-6 and IL-14 should terrify the ILGOP. Running up the score in the collars has been key to Republican chances statewide going back a long time, even as those counties started going purple in presidential elections. If this realignment is filtering to downballot, then GOP chances at the state level in Illinois are going to look a lot like their presidential chances in Illinois unless they can convince their increasingly Trumpist base downstate to nominate some Charlie Baker style Moderate Darlings.
Downstate: Rauner won 50-40 (Rauner won 61-34 in 2014)
Some polls had shown an essentially tied race downstate. More or less it appears the polls overestimated Rauner in Chicago and underestimated him downstate, while getting the collars mostly right. There was a particularly high third party vote downstate with Sam McCann finishing second in several counties in his West-Central home base. One thing that is notable is the greater divergence in the collars vs. downstate compared to four years ago (R+22 vs. R+27 in 2014, D+2 vs. R+10 in 2018). There are too many counties to do a full breakdown, but Pritzker did have some notable successes this time around, including Champaign County (University of Illinois) which he won 55-38 (Rauner won 55-41 in 2014), Peoria County which he won 48-44 (Rauner won 54-41 in 2014), Rock Island County (Quad Cities) which he won 51-42 (Rauner won 51-46 in 2014) and St. Clair County (St. Louis suburbs) which he won 53-41(Rauner won 52-44 in 2014), along with victories in a few smaller counties downstate. Although Pritzker lost Winnebago County (Rockford), it was by fewer than 100 votes (Rauner won 58-38 in 2014). Likewise Pritzker fell short in Sangamon County (Springfield), losing 46-43, but that's still a big improvement over Quinn (Rauner won 56-39).
Ultimately Prtizker made gains all of the state. Quite literally, as his margin was better than Quinn's in all 102 Illinois counties. In terms of raw votes, doubling the Cook County firewall (due to an improved margin and turning out over 370K more voters) was the single biggest impact (adding roughly 385K to Pritzker's margin over Quinn), while flipping the collars (adding about 200K to the margin) and stronger downstate performance (adding about 210K to the margin) had roughly equal value.
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The Don Jr. story, whether true or not, probably triggered it.
I'm sorry but "Kavanagh's Supreme Court"? Did our beer loving friend suddenly become a court of 1 or even Chief Justice?
Trump approves
Are we going to let a slovenly 72 year old man best us?
Me on monday: "If we take house and/or senate, I'm expecting Trump to really fight dems on any front where they try to keep him accountable. He has mostly conceded to court rulings against him thus far, but insofar that the more and more conservative courts favor dems moving forward, when dems have power over house and/or senate, I expect Trump to start ignoring court orders. And he'll do the thing he always does where he tweets about it nonstop and suddenly defying the judicial branch is no longer universally unacceptable -- it's a debate on the news channels and republicans get in line.
Or he gives up and resigns if he somehow thinks he can't pull republican voters along."
Anybody that thinks Trump will submit himself to dem investigations is dreaming. I think we're closer to him ignoring the judicial branch than him submitting himself to dem investigations.
So, how long til some conservative compares democrats reaction to Sessions being axed to Comey?
This makes no sense. That investigation was coming regardless.
Confirmation hearings are now easier for republicans as of yesterday.
These idiots still don't realize he's shortsighted and only cares about himself.
Why are they still perplexed by what Donald is going? He's a potent mix of "l'etat c'est moi" and waaaah me me me" and that mix is awfully abrupt, volatile, dangerous. Be shocked but let's not be surprised.
Er, they just gained seats. Devos and Kavanaugh passed with a 2 seat majority.
Just swinging those 4 back to obama levels could even give democrats the electoral college advantage and allow a loss of the popular vote.
Neither side has much of a path to victory outside the rust belt, though it is true that democrats need all 4 while republicans only need 1.
They now all have democratic governors and secretaries of state, which should reduce election meddling too.
EDIT: I suppose this isn't the best time to talk about that, but I really can't deal with the news right now. I swear they picked the day with the least political energy to protest, at least for me.
Yall need to stop putting so much power in Kav's hands. The Nixon precedent will remain, if only because of Roberts.
The senate would not convict trump even if we flipped the majority
They need 60 (or 2/3 iirc) for it to go through
Kobach is a dude that was ordered to take 6 hours of remedial law classes because of his performance in federal court. His voter suppression all panel was a joke. He's an embarrassment and I'd argue that even the expanded Senate wouldn't confirm him.
Maybe I'm wrong. I don't think I am.
I really don't get it either. Roberts is not going to give the president that much power.
Since Sessions "resigned" officially they don't need to appoint Whitaker by the Senate since wasn't that only by firing?
So wouldn't he just stay as AG?
So wouldn't he just stay as AG?
Only need roberts or one of the liberal justices to die or retire in the next 2 years and the court is completely gone.
i hope this is accurate of Muller right now....
He was fired.
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