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Alexem

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,335
Essex, UK
Just for the record, I'm OK with an L_P lynch today. I think enough questions have been raised from Sophia to make an information flip viable. That said, I'm not voting just yet for the simple reason that I don't want to put him into turbo-able territory so soon - it's a majority of nine, after all, and I'd rather not have us starved of the discussion time that we still have available.
 

gir

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,019
I'll admit, half way through, I thought I was tunneling too much but by that point, I was like "I'm too far gone now" and just kept going XD
feels good to commit to one solid read, no matter how little or big a case you have. Just need to know if that one flip is right for your own sanity
 

gir

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,019
Stuart444

About gir. He was big on the front of defending the change in Faddy's behaviour as not alignment indicative, right?
I was, when I voted I wasn't 100% sure he was scum, still very much on the fence. But LP wasnt getting lynched and stu promised to back me on the LP wagon today, so thought if this helps me then go for it
 

gir

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,019
Unless LP can convince me otherwise, I'm thinking they are the best lynch today as they can seemingly give more info depending on their flip ie if town, we should have a serious look at gir.
if LP is town, then I give you permission to fry me like faddy would a mars bar and eat me
 

Giant Panda

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,689
Generally I think it's a good thing to have two competing lynchs during the day. If we all pile on LP without much discussion of other players, and then he turns out to be town, we will have wasted a day.

I'll place my vote where I started the day at. I'll need to reread Sophia/LP to get a better feeling on them.

Vote: turmoil7
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,240
Gorlak's reasoning was bad and trying to look into early votes that don't mean anything.

Turmoil is just throwing his vote around for luls.

I think the more scummy players are Alexem and Kalor who have posted things that are basically sitting on the fence. Alexem seemed happy to have nin as a distraction.

This is slight defending of turmoils early nin vote. Besides him fantomas and Stuart voted nin. So why single out turmoil?

Note the Kalor and Alexem shade.

Not long after he votes ET which he keeps all day:
melonrabbit ??? pls respond

Anyway time to actually make a real read. I think Extreme Tactician is my top scum read right now. He was very fluffy in his interactions with me and asking nothing questions to look like he was engaged. I've seen a few other people scum reading him but no one else putting a vote down. Stuart seems particularly interested in giving him the benefit of the doubt.

Vote: Extreme Tactician

On top of nin, I like Fantomas as town (again).
How many scum would he name in one post? This is also preparing a stu lynch if et should be lynched, a plan which failed.
Fantomas is saying B-Dubs knows melon's alignment and that he knows I'm wrong in calling melon mafia. That is the slip.

Seems pretty awkward for B-Dubs to do that as mafia and definitely not with melon.

Yeah it feels like you are playing along in real time a bit more here. In conspiracy I think you got lynched because you just weren't playing. Plenty of people in the same boat here. From Extreme Tactician down there is a lack of presence. Out of that group Donna has the best posts imo.

extreme tactician: 11 alexem: 8 turmoil7: 8 kalor: 7 dcpat: 7 empressdonna: 6 giant panda: 5 absolutbro: 5 melonrabbit: 4 z-beat: 4 coolestspot: 4
He is cosy with B-Dubs and tries to comfort him into the day? Highlights low posters and gives points to Donna.
I was just prodding for any wider reads. Gorlak scum and were you town reading Zeke ??? at least at one point you said he felt like town Zeke.

You went through a whole back and forth with Fantomas about top town and top scum without giving an opinion of your own. Sure questioning people is fine but give us your conclusions.
Another early shot at Stu. I'm pretty confident that scum team didn't plan to bus themselves all out throughout the whole game. Stu is town.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,240
Aren't you usually town when you are tunneling?
Comment on Zeke. Have to see if he follows up with that line of questioning.

I'm still liking Donna's posts fwiw
Mhm, that gets called out by Donna herself. His response:
Just that out of all the lower post count people I feel best about you. I like your posts in that you are putting out reads and seem to be able to back up your reads when asked.

Turmoil had you on his lynch list and I don't think you should be anywhere near the lynch today. I would lynch any of Kalor, Alexem, DCPat, Z-Beat, Giant Panda or absolutbro before you. And that is far from an exhaustive list of people with little presence in the game.
I'm sure we find scum in there, with a likely ET lynch probably one scum? Kalor, GP =town. That leaves Alex, DcPat, Zbeat and best read Donna. 1 in 4 doesn't sound like the best odds to find scum right now, but I'll keep this in mind.

And why did he leave out melonrabbit? He prodded her at the very beginning.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,240
The end of day 1 makes me feel better about coolest again. Faddy seemed frustrated, and told everyone cs did dumb shit as scum in previous games as well.
I'd put coolest in my townreads again and really hope this doesn't fuck us endgame, surely more info later in the game will help us with that situation?
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,240
Faddy read on Sophia D2 in response to Grizzly:
I don't see the issue with her vote the way you do. I mean I can see the world where she does that as mafia with the half hedge on Coolest. But in that world I don't get why she wouldn't just scum read you and vote there to put you above ET.

I think you are underestimating the chances that you were going to be lynched yesterday. I would probably have put in a bit of effort to save you over ET but if Sophia votes you and Zeke voted you then you are way ahead. It wasn't like ET was a slam dunk scum.
This seems like an unusual defense? I think Sophia commited to "give bear time" relatively early and simply couldn't backtrack.
 

EzekelRAGE

Member
Nov 3, 2017
16,144
Stuart444 Gorlak thoughts on the ppl saying the longer nin is in the game the more they worry? Seems like something specific to say. Both mal and ab worded that same sentiment the same way it seems.

malus thoughts on anything other than nin/Sophia?
 
Oct 25, 2017
23,216
I feel like nin could be an easy wagon to jump on as scum. I mentioned that he kind of worried me, but I'm not super concerned about him right now. If he's still around later in the game, then we should look into him, but I don't think that's the way we should go right now
 

EzekelRAGE

Member
Nov 3, 2017
16,144
Faddy read on Sophia D2 in response to Grizzly:
This seems like an unusual defense? I think Sophia commited to "give bear time" relatively early and simply couldn't backtrack.
Yep. Really wish I knew where Sophia leaned on the whole faddy vs Stu narrative that started forming early yesterday.

Yeah, I get the feeling he decided he could get away with ignoring unpleasant questions.
Thoughts on faddys goal with me and cs?
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,240
This interaction was what I've been looking for:
Sophia asking Faddy why he didnt move his vote D1
#1369 - the fact she had to poke him again for a response (re faddy ignoring posts)
But why didn't you push for Gorlak earlier on in the day? You were clearly feeling bad about him because you said so multiple times. I'm just trying to figure out like why you didn't move from ET in the earlier phases of the day.
Faddy responds to that two or so posts later if you want to read that.

This is making me almost townreads her. If only she would've followed up on that somewhere? I'm still rereading, maybe it comes up.

But why would scum!Sophia poke in the whole that grizzly highlighted and was (probably) killed for?
 

Lone_Prodigy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,422
I can't blame you if you found Sophia scummy.

I also don't think we should be lynching for info on D4 but we're in a good spot so one misstep wouldn't scuttle the game
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,240
GP's vote of Faddy? Not sure. A few people (Grizzly most noticeably off the top of my head) have expressed discontent with Faddy, but GP's the only one who's actually voted there. I found Faddy's reasoning for staying on ET when he mentioned Gorlak so many times to be a bit shaky myself.
So Sophia not giving that away.

And then we have starting with 1962 the interaction that sparked the faddy lynch in the end. Faddy wanted to protect gir. "Because he's town and not vanilla". Cheap dig makes Stu think. This feels natural.
 

Alexem

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,335
Essex, UK
I've been taking another look at my notes on Sophia, thinking about what her flip might entail. A lot of my observations revolved around her interactions with Gorlak. I think this makes me feel better about Gorlak's line of enquiry about her - a town flip for Sophia/L_P could raise questions about Gorlak, so I think it would be a risky push for Gorlak as scum to go after them. I'd imagine a bus attempt to be even more unlikely at this point. I don't know what the flip would reveal, but I think Gorlak's intentions are good - at least that's my current take.
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,070
I've been taking another look at my notes on Sophia, thinking about what her flip might entail. A lot of my observations revolved around her interactions with Gorlak. I think this makes me feel better about Gorlak's line of enquiry about her - a town flip for Sophia/L_P could raise questions about Gorlak, so I think it would be a risky push for Gorlak as scum to go after them. I'd imagine a bus attempt to be even more unlikely at this point. I don't know what the flip would reveal, but I think Gorlak's intentions are good - at least that's my current take.

So from your perspective, you would want an LP lynch today or do you feel like someone else is more important today?
 

Alexem

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,335
Essex, UK
So from your perspective, you would want an LP lynch today or do you feel like someone else is more important today?
I wouldn't object to it. I still think that Turmoil and DCPat are worth looking in to, and I can't say that I had the strongest feelings about Sophia if I'm honest, but given how many people have concerns about her, I think an L_P flip would answer a lot of people's questions. The important part, I think, is that we know what to do with that information - if this is going to be an information flip, we need a good idea of what to do with it - especially if L_P does flip town.
 

Alexem

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,335
Essex, UK
What do you think of DCPat taking into account my previous posts that looked into his post history?
Certainly there's more to link him to Faddy from D2 than D1, but then if we were to assume that they were team-mates, it's only to be expected that they want some distance between each other.

It's true that I had DCPat on the town side going in to D3 - his vote on me wasn't unwarranted. Paired with the vote on Kalor from the day before, though, I had to wonder if that first vote on me was to set up a potential wagon early on. I am still of the mind that there may be another busser amongst ET's voters on D1. Out of the voters, Fantomas and Kalor have been flipped town and I know that I'm town. Faddy, meanwhile, flipped scum. That leaves Turmoil, Gir, Spot, Malus and DCPat. Of those, Gir, Spot and Malus would go on to vote for Faddy in D3, while Turmoil and DCPat voted for me. Now, as I was the subject of the alternative vote, I recognise that it's not easy to bring this up without it sounding like OMGUS. I do think, however, that Faddy does seem like a riskier option for a bus seeing that scum were already down ET and Faddy may (or may not, as per Zeke's theory) have had a ninja kill left to use. That leaves Turmoil and DCPat on the alternative wagon and whoever it would have been for, it would have looked dubious to me.
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,070
Alexem if LP flips scum, what would you think about Turmoil and DCPat in a world where LP flips scum.

The important part, I think, is that we know what to do with that information - if this is going to be an information flip, we need a good idea of what to do with it - especially if L_P does flip town.

Since you say this, I feel it is worth discussing as you are looking more at those 2 than LP right now.
 

Lone_Prodigy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,422
So looking at the D3 votes:

When Faddy votes Alexem, it's Faddy 6, Alexem 5. Close to a tie.

Then we get melon and Z-Beat B2B on Faddy. This makes both look rather townie (despite being close together) as it's too early to bus.

After an unvote and no other movement, AB and Zeke finish it. With no further votes on Alexem, these look more like bus votes.
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,070
We have 3 days' worth of votes and 2 scum flips. I think there's a case to be built there.

Well build it then.

I'll wait

giphy.gif
 

Giant Panda

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,689
So on day 1, the most shade Faddy throws seems to be at Gorlak. Not as strong of a clear for him as Coolest because Gorlak wasn't in a position to be the lynch over ET, but I think it counts for something. I've also been liking his recent posts and analysis, so Gorlak's a town lean for me.
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,070
So on day 1, the most shade Faddy throws seems to be at Gorlak. Not as strong of a clear for him as Coolest because Gorlak wasn't in a position to be the lynch over ET, but I think it counts for something. I've also been liking his recent posts and analysis, so Gorlak's a town lean for me.

Gorlak in my experience can be pretty useful at end game. I think Faddy wanted to keep shade on him (even throwing me and him as a scum pair in the last day) to see if he could get him lynched without wasting an NK on him.

Unlikely for Gorlak to be scum I'd say. Not impossible, just unlikely.
 

DCPat

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,170
Stuart what do you think about the D1 end votes from Melon and Nin there? I don't really like them.
 

Giant Panda

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,689
Okay. Don't see scum Coolest doing this. That will be the main reason for the vote. I'm not super on lynching either one. But they are no town reads either. So whatever. At least if ET flips scum we'll have more info I guess.

Vote: Extreme tactician

What? He did this exact shit in Buck Bumble as scum.

Stuart444: This was an interesting interaction between DCPat and Faddy on day 1 that I think you missed. It seems like Faddy is sincerely frustrated that his push isn't working, and that gives me a slight town lean on DCPat. Only slight though, because he was the last voter on ET, so it easily could have been bussing.
 

DCPat

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,170
My problem with Melon at the moment is that I do not like that D1 vote, her D2 vote is after the Kalor claim, so I don't read much into it. Don't like her D4 vote. Day 3 one is interesting. It was a vote for Faddy at 6-5, making it 7-5 (immediately after Zbeat making it 8-5.) I have trouble reading that vote.

For her other contributions I didn't find that much the last couple of pages. I think it's weird that she forgot about Alexem and later townreads him. Zeke pointed that out and apparently she townread him after a reread. Which I just don't understand without explanation. Honestly there isn't much more. Few statements without reasoning.

Not feeling to good.
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,070
Stuart444: This was an interesting interaction between DCPat and Faddy on day 1 that I think you missed. It seems like Faddy is sincerely frustrated that his push isn't working, and that gives me a slight town lean on DCPat. Only slight though, because he was the last voter on ET, so it easily could have been bussing.

You're right, I did miss that.

I see it a different way though. Considering DCPat wasn't interacting with Faddy much, could Faddy have chosen to get some interaction in so that should DC flip before him, no one will be able to say he didn't interact with him or even call him out (which that post could be considered, calling DC out for something)

Just something to think about.
 

DCPat

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,170
I do remember that post from Faddy as a bit weird, but afterwards I just figured it was more about Coolest.
 

Giant Panda

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,689
You're right, I did miss that.

I see it a different way though. Considering DCPat wasn't interacting with Faddy much, could Faddy have chosen to get some interaction in so that should DC flip before him, no one will be able to say he didn't interact with him or even call him out (which that post could be considered, calling DC out for something)

Just something to think about.
Yeah, I guess that's possible.

Also, can you remind me of your case for Sophia? There's the vote flipping Day1 and Grizzly's scum read of her and Faddy, but I can't remember what else there was.
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,070
Yeah, I guess that's possible.

Also, can you remind me of your case for Sophia? There's the vote flipping Day1 and Grizzly's scum read of her and Faddy, but I can't remember what else there was.

My main case for her comes from Grizzly's scum read of her along with Faddy.

That said focusing on her votes on D1 + 2 (none on D3 as LP only had one post and Sophia replaced out quite early in the day):

Vote: Extreme Tactician

Pushing the vote up further so there's less chance of a tie. I'd rather have Coolest over ET, but in the vote between ET and Grizzly I'd like to give Grizz some actual time. Especially because he said ahead of time his activity would be sketchy. ET's actually been here, and I'm feeling null on him.

She says she would prefer Coolest over ET (who she does vote again)

Vote: Kalor

This might not stay, we'll see.

She says this might not stay but the vote did stay. Here are her posts after this one:


Yeah, if he's telling the truth, I don't think he has a choice now unless someone protects him? And relying on protection that might not even be there isn't a wise idea.

He does have a point, Kalor...

Who all hasn't voted yet?

Careful, Kalor is at 7 votes.

Well, you have two and a half hours for him to chime in so...

Nice of you to join us before the day's end, GP.

A LOT of this reads like she's trying to make sure she is there but that's all. In other words, busy work.

Not feeling great looking at that I'll admit.
 

EzekelRAGE

Member
Nov 3, 2017
16,144
It doesn't, but it's nice info should Zeke flip for whatever reason. That would give us two very solid reads on confirmed players.
Hmm, slightly more town read on Sophia.
Nin said he'd place a vote for Coolest at the time, and I wanted him over ET because I thought he was more likely to be scum. But I didn't fully trust Nin to be back, hence the comment to switch back at 15 minutes if I needed to.
Also this is sophia explaining the d1 vote.