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EzekelRAGE

Member
Nov 3, 2017
16,128
Yeah, I'm really concerned about this too. I feel like most of the parties involved here are probably town. Gorlak could go either way for me, but I'm still leaning town for him

VOTE: Z-Beat

I think nin is on the right track. I think this is the better option today. His play reminds me of how Malus played last game, and I don't trust it. I think a scum team could be him, AB, and maybe Turmoil (Turmoil I'm the most unsure about). Not super sure about the 4th, but I do think scum is coasting here.

Eh, scum townread town all the time. I don't think it means Chugg is scum because of it (Please don't kill me)
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,240
Sorry, didn't realise you were after my opinion - I just wanted to check I was thinking of the right one and thought it might be useful to pair up your suggestion with the post you had in mind. Since you ask, I think it's a valid point to make but I wouldn't call it conclusive by itself. It could, in all fairness, have been a genuine error of calculation - until the game's resolved, we don't know for certain how many scum we were dealing with at the time.
It was not about the number of scum [which I remember you assumed to be low (4 instead of my 5 assumption) early in the game]?

Hold up now I'm in conspirancy mode. How likely would it be to have a 6 player scum team?
 

Alexem

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,335
Essex, UK
Somehow this feels too easy.
I have to admit, I am somewhat surprised that there's been such a consensus towards the info flip on L_P. Yesterday did seem unusually slow to me for a Monday, though - I suspect that if scum had been planning to set up an alternative train to try and split the vote, they would have had a tricky time doing it without it looking too obvious.
 

Alexem

Member
Oct 27, 2017
1,335
Essex, UK
Hold up now I'm in conspirancy mode. How likely would it be to have a 6 player scum team?
That does seem excessive to me, especially with a neutral in play to boot. Mind you, if there were that many, somehow, that would make Faddy's elimination seem more likely to be a bus - I think that's veering into tinfoil hat territory, though.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,240
But... [I don't know if I'm serious here, hear me out] what if?

21 with 6 vs 1 vs 14? (The third faction could go up to 3, maybe one from both sides?)

6/21 is about 28% - high, but maybe a weak team? Goon and 1-shot extra ninja kill.

We were at 17 - presumably 4v13 but with 5 left we have the following:
5v12 // 5v9 (if extra nk used) // and we are in lylo with 5v7
This would match turmoil's statement.

At least it's something to look into when further scum flip and we have a better feeling of the setup.
 
Oct 25, 2017
23,216
Scum isn't going to start another wagon to save scum after yesterday. Although this one on me could be an attempt at one. If LP flips scum, I think the reamaining scum team was trying to distance themselves from him
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,068
if we're talking about an effort to save ET then I guess you could also suspect LP/Sophia who helped push CS up as the alternative lynch to ET.
 

Lone_Prodigy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,420
Stu, I've been pretty patient with you, but now that I've made my case with a reads list, you don't even acknowledge it and continue down this path. I guess your "I can be swayed" talk was just that: talk.

Your arguments basically hinge on two things:

1. The reads of a neutral.
2. Low activity from a low activity poster.

1.
We don't know you're town til you're lynched. Downplaying the reads of a dead confirmed town isn't a good look to me.

If someone reads me as scum and I'm not, I'm going to say so. How is that downplaying.

Not to mention that Grizzly is a neutral survivor. I've been a neutral. You play with town at first, but if they get out ahead you have to flip back to helping scum. You can't believe anything from a neutral as they will obfuscate and deflect. Getting one scum from his reads is already a win.

You've been around since early D3. More than enough time yet it's taken until nearly the end of D4 to see any type of effort.

Not buying that you're town. Happy enough to see you lynched to either prove that my hunch is right or prove that you're town and thus I'm wrong.

But I'm pretty sure I'm right so we'll see.

This is actually the first time in days I've had enough free time to dedicate to this game. Does it look like a last-ditch attempt to save myself? Sure, you can call it that if you want. But try being dropped into a game where you're already having to defend yourself based on your predecessor's actions, along with the usual meta baggage.

Anyway, that's that. I'll be around until the end of the day.

And I see no point in claiming. Either I'm a PR and I just get NK'ed by scum, or I'm vanilla and town will just shrug and move on.
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,068
But try being dropped into a game where you're already having to defend yourself based on your predecessor's actions, along with the usual meta baggage.

You signed up to be a replacement. It's on you to deal with the actions of your predecessor.

And I see no point in claiming. Either I'm a PR and I just get NK'ed by scum, or I'm vanilla and town will just shrug and move on.

you're not claiming because you don't have a good enough fake claim that can be backed up I'm guessing.
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,240
if we're talking about an effort to save ET then I guess you could also suspect LP/Sophia who helped push CS up as the alternative lynch to ET.
You don't need to tell me what Sophia did. I pushed her two days and reread her today. Did you ever comment on the interactions between Faddy and Sophia?

Sophia being the one to continue Grizzly's lead on Faddy?
 

absolutbro

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,628
Hm.

unvote

Turmoil was actually my next choice, so seeing TheChuggernaut scum reading him is giving me second thoughts.

Also, TheChuggernaut, your name is now the first autosuggest in my phone when I type 'the'. XD
 

Lone_Prodigy

Member
Oct 25, 2017
7,420
Scum is obviously comfortable with me dying, and town doesn't feel like they have to do anything drastic since we're ahead.

My reads are out there so I've done all I can.

Good luck.
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,068
You don't need to tell me what Sophia did. I pushed her two days and reread her today. Did you ever comment on the interactions between Faddy and Sophia?

Sophia being the one to continue Grizzly's lead on Faddy?

I have actually commented on interactions between them:

#2995 highlights a particularly interesting interaction actually..

Just something to think about.
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,068
I swear, if LP is scum, I'll have been fighting two days in a row to get two scum dead.

It's just funny really.

But w/e

1844ae41abf2f64ca6ea291bdd7d378a.gif
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,240
I have actually commented on interactions between them:
#2995 highlights a particularly interesting interaction actually..
Just something to think about.
Okay, you read it as trying to distance herself from him without committing to it. Possible, but still I can't get behind why she'd discuss this with Faddy in thread - without ever receding her doubt or giving a "well it was probably nothing" when Grizzly was (probably) killed over it.
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,068
Okay, you read it as trying to distance herself from him without committing to it. Possible, but still I can't get behind why she'd discuss this with Faddy in thread - without ever receding her doubt or giving a "well it was probably nothing" when Grizzly was (probably) killed over it.

Well she isn't here to ask now.

We're in a good position, we can afford to go this route.
 

gir

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,019
Stuart444 you find it odd that each scum flip, nin hasn't been on the scum that flipped. In fact yesterday, they a had sole vote on absolutbro, the only one on that lynch wagon all day. Yes there was a turbo, but less than an hr before dayend
 

Stuart444

Member
Oct 25, 2017
9,068
Stuart444 you find it odd that each scum flip, nin hasn't been on the scum that flipped. In fact yesterday, they a had sole vote on absolutbro, the only one on that lynch wagon all day. Yes there was a turbo, but less than an hr before dayend

I think his votes are just wacky.

I'll be honest, I can't see scum or town nin doing it.

I'm just kinda ignoring it now. if he's alive in a day or two, I'll be happy to lynch him but I've got my order of preferences just now.

LP -> DC -> Nin probably.

Mind you, while malus is on the LP lynch, if LP flips town, I'd probably put Malus on par with DC. Dubs felt towny but malus isn't making me feel good for some reason.

Of course if LP is scum, I don't think malus as scum would bus him after losing scum Faddy.
 

gir

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,019
so it was never likely a wagon on ab would take off, making it safe and noncomittal. feels like nins voting pattern in retrospect is of somebody always on the wrong side and not trying to bring attention to themselves
 
Oct 27, 2017
2,240
so it was never likely a wagon on ab would take off, making it safe and noncomittal. feels like nins voting pattern in retrospect is of somebody always on the wrong side and not trying to bring attention to themselves
I could see scum nin being demotivated here and flatlining in activity.

not trying to bring attention to themselves
This is kinda funny given how the game started, but also true. He's content being on the sideline now.