Do you think the Bay Area is sustainable?

Curler · Jan 15, 2019

***Economic discussion***
(Yes, we know ice is melting)

Been discussing this with friends, as we all live here. I've lived here a decade, and has already seen accelerated growth to the area, that I just don't see it being a sustainable metropolis into the future... Here's some points on observations/changes I've seen, and why I don't think this will continue as THE tech place to work in the country:

1) Traffic/transport. More houses and development have brought so many people to the area, that there's no point in driving on any main highway between 3-8 :/ BART only covers half the Bay, bridges are constantly clogged, and other forms of transportation just are not convenient in many areas. I can honestly see more people moving out of the region, looking for work elsewhere due to this.

2) Housing. I don't even need to touch on this. Stuff's expensive :/ I've seen a lot more homeless people spread out further around, with no solution in sight... (Homeless of course, are another set of issues too).

3) Reliance on tech economy. I feel like things will switch in the future. Either more and more companies will rely on offshoring/heavy automation, or more tech cities (like Seattle etc.) will pop up, with much more attractive living costs.

4) Earthquakes.... I try not to think about this one, but it is a very real issue. Although most homes are up to code, I don't know about the rest of cities/residents :/

I dunno... When see in just 10 years just HOW fast growth hss accelerated, I'm just not sure thst it can last for too much longer. (Also not even touching on climate issues either, which will be inevitable).

John Caboose · Jan 15, 2019

Pretty much nothing humanity is doing is sustainable.

TerminusFox · Jan 15, 2019

So long as the demand remains high, yeah it will be.

Simple economics

Deleted member 46429 · Jan 15, 2019

I can only speak about myself, but once I finish my education I'm moving out of here for where my SO lives because I can't stand living in the Bay Area anymore. Too expensive and too congested :/

Wein Cruz · Jan 15, 2019

John Caboose said:
Pretty much nothing humanity is doing is sustainable.

Blader · Jan 15, 2019

It'll be underwater in a few decades, so no.

Kurdel · Jan 15, 2019

Of course it isn't.

Dalek · Jan 15, 2019

I live here. No I don't think it's sustainable. I'm wondering what is going to break first.

1. BART is a fucking nightmare. It's always packed to the max. When I wait for my train, every 12 minutes a new train arrives-and everytime that train is packed. How is that possible? How the hell can there be this many people? They can't all be going to work. If so-I wish some of these companies would move out of San Francisco and maybe move to Oakland or Alameda. Why does everything have to be in San Francisco? The majority of people in the Bay Area don't live there. It's like these companies don't realize the Bay Area is more than SF.

I've been riding BART into the city since 2002 and it's just mind blowing how more packed it is. I just don't see things getting better. Anytime money gets allocated for BARt, somehow it gets routed right to the workers and the rider's experience never improves. I've seen those new BART cars - but coincidentally they're never on my route.

Car Traffic is a nightmare. Again-since 2002 I would say traffic has increased 5x at least. You can't go anywhere without sitting in traffic. Everything takes way more time than it should. I blame Uber and Lyft for a lot of this. Recently I had to drive my daughter to Orinda from Castro Valley to an orthodontist during the day. That took us 1 hour and 10 minutes one way.

My manager lives in San Jose and sometimes drives to our office in San Francisco. This morning it took her 2 hours. It is raining, though-but still.

2. Housing. something has to change-but I don't know what. There's nowhere to build in SF for a multitude of reasons. Foreign investors just buying up property as an investment to get their money out of their own country is obnoxious. I don't know how you block that either-but god damn is that annoying.

3. Tech Economy - Who knows? I'm in the tech/gaming economy and I have no idea what the future holds. One would think the bubble would burst again like the dot com bubble and change the landscape of SF, but it's nuts. Facebook, Google, LinkedIn and Salesforce all have major presence in downtown now. That's a LOT of people.

4. Earthquakes are the least of our worries.

I hate it here. I'm a homeowner in the Bay Area which is a miracle, but nothing would make me happier to move. Logistically it's not going to happen anytime soon because of my wife's job and family being close.

THERE ARE TOO MANY PEOPLE HERE

Hollywood Duo · Jan 15, 2019

Of course not, these things are always cyclical.

Curler · Jan 15, 2019

Blader said:
It'll be underwater in a few decades, so no.

No? These are all like, man-made industrial flats, too.

http://www.adaptingtorisingtides.org/project/regional-sea-level-rise-mapping-and-shoreline-analysis/

Do I need to note "this is a discussion on the economy" on here?

Deleted member 2085 · Jan 15, 2019

I live in the South Bay and no, it's just getting more expensive.

TransEuropaExpress · Jan 15, 2019

Having spent a year living in San Jose and nope-ing the fuck out, it's a firm no from me despite not having a huge list to rattle down right now.

cmalex23 · Jan 15, 2019

My wife and I are planning our exit from this area. Everything is a nightmare, even in the "less expensive" east bay.

Curler · Jan 15, 2019

Dalek said:
I live here. No I don't think it's sustainable. I'm wondering what is going to break first.

1. BART is a fucking nightmare. It's always packed to the max. When I wait for my train, every 12 minutes a new train arrives-and everytime that train is packed. How is that possible? How the hell can there be this many people? They can't all be going to work. If so-I wish some of these companies would move out of San Francisco and maybe move to Oakland or Alameda. Why does everything have to be in San Francisco? The majority of people in the Bay Area don't live there. It's like these companies don't realize the Bay Area is more than SF.

I've been riding BART into the city since 2002 and it's just mind blowing how more packed it is. I just don't see things getting better. Anytime money gets allocated for BARt, somehow it gets routed right to the workers and the rider's experience never improves. I've seen those new BART cars - but coincidentally they're never on my route.

Car Traffic is a nightmare. Again-since 2002 I would say traffic has increased 5x at least. You can't go anywhere without sitting in traffic. Everything takes way more time than it should. I blame Uber and Lyft for a lot of this. Recently I had to drive my daughter to Orinda from Castro Valley to an orthodontist during the day. That took us 1 hour and 10 minutes one way.

2. Housing. something has to change-but I don't know what. There's nowhere to build in SF for a multitude of reasons. Foreign investors just buying up property as an investment to get their money out of their own country is obnoxious. I don't know how you block that either-but god damn is that annoying.

3. Tech Economy - Who knows? I'm in the tech/gaming economy and I have no idea what the future holds. One would think the bubble would burst again like the dot com bubble and change the landscape of SF, but it's nuts. Facebook, Google, LinkedIn and Salesforce all have major presence in downtown now. That's a LOT of people.

4. Earthquakes are the least of our worries.

I hate it here. I'm a homeowner in the Bay Area which is a miracle, but nothing would make me happier to move. Logistically it's not going to happen anytime soon because of my wife's job and family being close.

THERE ARE TOO MANY PEOPLE HERE

Yup, agree on all fronts. Resources here cannot sustain what we have, currently. I know a lot of people on here call for "more homes" but realistically that means more people moving in (not locals breaking away from parents/roomates/homelessness), and attributing to more traffic, etc. Doesn't drop prices, either :/

Deleted member 4367 · Jan 15, 2019

I liked the bay area. We lived in Vallejo which had nothing, but it gave us easy access to Berkeley, SF and Oakland which have everything, along with Sonoma which was awesome.

Gunny T Highway · Jan 15, 2019

That is absolutely zero chance this can be sustainable. Something eventually will have to give.

TransEuropaExpress · Jan 15, 2019

Dalek said:
I live here. No I don't think it's sustainable. I'm wondering what is going to break first.

1. BART is a fucking nightmare. It's always packed to the max. When I wait for my train, every 12 minutes a new train arrives-and everytime that train is packed. How is that possible? How the hell can there be this many people? They can't all be going to work. If so-I wish some of these companies would move out of San Francisco and maybe move to Oakland or Alameda. Why does everything have to be in San Francisco? The majority of people in the Bay Area don't live there. It's like these companies don't realize the Bay Area is more than SF.

I've been riding BART into the city since 2002 and it's just mind blowing how more packed it is. I just don't see things getting better. Anytime money gets allocated for BARt, somehow it gets routed right to the workers and the rider's experience never improves. I've seen those new BART cars - but coincidentally they're never on my route.

Car Traffic is a nightmare. Again-since 2002 I would say traffic has increased 5x at least. You can't go anywhere without sitting in traffic. Everything takes way more time than it should. I blame Uber and Lyft for a lot of this. Recently I had to drive my daughter to Orinda from Castro Valley to an orthodontist during the day. That took us 1 hour and 10 minutes one way.

My manager lives in San Jose and sometimes drives to our office in San Francisco. This morning it took her 2 hours. It is raining, though-but still.

2. Housing. something has to change-but I don't know what. There's nowhere to build in SF for a multitude of reasons. Foreign investors just buying up property as an investment to get their money out of their own country is obnoxious. I don't know how you block that either-but god damn is that annoying.

3. Tech Economy - Who knows? I'm in the tech/gaming economy and I have no idea what the future holds. One would think the bubble would burst again like the dot com bubble and change the landscape of SF, but it's nuts. Facebook, Google, LinkedIn and Salesforce all have major presence in downtown now. That's a LOT of people.

4. Earthquakes are the least of our worries.

I hate it here. I'm a homeowner in the Bay Area which is a miracle, but nothing would make me happier to move. Logistically it's not going to happen anytime soon because of my wife's job and family being close.

THERE ARE TOO MANY PEOPLE HERE

I actually thought NYC car traffic is fun compared to the shit I dealt with in the Bay Area. My condolences.

Kirblar · Jan 15, 2019

It's sustainable if you build housing, which won't happen because lol SF.

Deleted member 47843 · Jan 15, 2019

It's hard to say.

The thing that's really unsustainable is the service and manual labor jobs given the low pay and high cost of living. But we could see more and more of those phased out in pricey metro areas as more things get automated and things like cashier positions become less common. But that's also not sustainable in the absence of some universal basic income or other system that less displaced unskilled/underskilled laborers live without working (albeit probably outside of metro areas which would become for the upper middle class and above in that scenario).

Deleted member 8118 · Jan 15, 2019

I live in San Francisco and I'm leaving because I can't afford to finish school out here at the moment.

Short answer, no, it isn't sustainable, and the people have gotten more and more insufferable as time has gone on here.

I actually cannot wait to leave for a while.

carlsojo · Jan 15, 2019

My wife and I love it here after moving from Ohio a year and a half ago. I can't see us leaving in the foreseeable future, but maybe we'll get tired of things?

Housing: we pay 2800 for a 2BR townhome in Sunnyvale, which is a bargain for this area. It's double our mortgage for our house in Ohio that was double the square footage... but we make more than double what we made in Ohio.

Traffic: I take the Cal-train to and from work. She drives to different office locations every day and hasn't complained. Maybe it's just dependent on when and where she's driving?

Curler · Jan 15, 2019

Kirblar said:
It's sustainable if you build housing, which won't happen because lol SF.

The surrounding neighborhoods have seen tons of extreme housing development however, with every empty spot of land (outside of SF) being used for new condos etc. It seems to just add to more people/traffic/raised housing costs. I would highly doubt more houses, specifically inside SF, would solve many of these issues.

Dalek · Jan 15, 2019

Curler said:
The surrounding neighborhoods have seen tons of extreme housing development however, with every empty spot of land (outside of SF) being used for new condos etc. It seems to just add to more people/traffic/raised housing costs. I would highly doubt more houses, specifically inside SF, would solve many of these issues.

Alameda added a lot of new housing near the naval base in the last ten years. Now that whole area on Webster is a parking lot. Completely packed.

BastardSamurai · Jan 15, 2019

I just moved to Moraga because SF was getting costly/unsustainable. As shitty as BART is, it's kinda insane that SF is so broken that BART traveling 17 miles takes the same amount of time as SF MUNI traveling 7 miles.

Kirblar · Jan 15, 2019

Curler said:
The surrounding neighborhoods have seen tons of extreme housing development however, with every empty spot of land (outside of SF) being used for new condos etc. It seems to just add to more people/traffic/raised housing costs. I would highly doubt more houses, specifically inside SF, would solve many of these issues.

The problem is houses, yes.

You need to be building large apartment buildings. Not houses. But a ridiculous amount of SF is zoned for SFHs.

Ecotic · Jan 15, 2019

I don't see a bubble bursting scenario where there's a mass exodus from the Bay Area. The population of America keeps increasing and the trend towards moving towards cities for opportunity will continue. There's also a dearth of major metropolitan areas on North America's west coast for companies and people to switch to, as compared to the east coast. In total, there's Southern California, the Bay Area, Portland, Seattle, and Vancouver. If you're a multinational company that wants to be connected to the Pacific Rim, there's only a handful of choices.

LGHT_TRSN · Jan 15, 2019

It's not like the Bay Area is going to suffer an economic crash independent of the rest of the economy. I don't really get what you mean when you say "sustainable. What is the hypothetical result of it being "unsustainable?"

easter · Jan 15, 2019

im on team sustainable

ezrarh · Jan 15, 2019

Totally. Don't you see all those homeowners with their chicken coops and tomato plants? You're pretty vague on what's sustainable? Will it continue to grow forever? Of course not but who knows what the time frame is for things to continue as it is.

Curler · Jan 15, 2019

LGHT_TRSN said:
It's not like the Bay Area is going to suffer an economic crash independent of the rest of the economy. I don't really get what you mean when you say "sustainable. What is the hypothetical result of it being "unsustainable?"

I've already highlighted most of it in my points in the OP. I don't even necessarily mean an economic crash (although I did point out automation/offshoring effecting tech companies), but the overcapacity of people in the area + pricing. Resources are an issue, especially when you don't see more schools/enough hospitals/etc. opening up to contain the explosion of population. Where will retail/food/other service workers come from, if they can't afford it here? How much are people willing to deal with traffic, with poor transportation alternatives? The equilibrium of sustainability of residents, overall.

Edit: Do you live/have lived here before? Just wondering if this is from an outside perspective.

SugarNoodles · Jan 15, 2019

Not investing in infrastructure or housing but rapidly expanding population and wage gap.

Yes very sustainable.

tsmoreau · Jan 15, 2019

Coincidentally just landed at SFO after not having been here for a year or so.

Used to work in the Mission managing two sports related buildings and between the traffic, the home pricing and the stream of literal shit on the streets between my two buildings, I noped the fuck out at the end of 2017.

Shit is crazy. I went to school here, and it's nothing like it used to be.

Better urban development and public transportation are desperately required and have been for years and years,but despite all the tech money floating around there just isn't the political will for it.

Pwnz · Jan 15, 2019

Its expensive because housing is scarce and major tech companies and startups choose to pay more to be there. Over time a lot of tech companies will spread out as software is going to be used more and more. Austin is finally starting to get real R&D branches and not just marketing. But I still think companies will pay the premium for the startup talent and culture unique to the bay area.

Froyo Love · Jan 15, 2019

Curler said:
I've already highlighted most of it in my points in the OP. I don't even necessarily mean an economic crash (although I did point out automation/offshoring effecting tech companies), but the overcapacity of people in the area + pricing. Resources are an issue, especially when you don't see more schools/enough hospitals/etc. opening up to contain the explosion of population. Where will retail/food/other service workers come from, if they can't afford it here? How much are people willing to deal with traffic, with poor transportation alternatives? The equilibrium of sustainability of residents, overall.

what actually happens if it's "unsustainable", though? are you talking about changes over 5 years, 10 years? 30 years?

the most likely outcome is that economic growth in the area slows due to the constraints you mention, low-end wages rise as those laborers get scarcer, and transportation will remain awful. doesn't that describe most major metropolitan areas?

KillLaCam · Jan 15, 2019

Yeah, If infrastructure and stuff was being invested in.

FaceHugger · Jan 15, 2019

I think the most likely conclusion is that another tech hub pops up on the west coast somewhere, and some of the tech presence in the bay area moves there. I have friends who went to seek their gold out west and gave up and moved back to the east coast after a few years. Why make $200k out there and live in a box with two other people just to make ends meet (or suffer a brutal daily commute), when you can go back to Research Triangle or someplace, get paid $150k, and buy a nice house or rent a nice apartment and live well. I think eventually that housing issue is what will force a partial migration.

Curler · Jan 15, 2019

Froyo Love said:
what actually happens if it's "unsustainable", though? are you talking about changes over 5 years, 10 years? 30 years?

the most likely outcome is that economic growth in the area slows due to the constraints you mention, low-end wages rise as those laborers get scarcer, and transportation will remain awful. doesn't that describe most major metropolitan areas?

I have no idea how long these things would take, but probably within the next decade something has gotta give. Other places have better transportation options than here, for sure. Although I've never been to NYC, the subway seems a lot better than what we currently have here. Still, this is a bit of a special casen compared to other metropolitan areas, due to SF, how it operates, and the huge names in/around it.

Dalek · Jan 15, 2019

FaceHugger said:
I think the most likely conclusion is that another tech hub pops up on the west coast somewhere, and some of the tech presence in the bay area moves there. I have friends who went to seek their gold out west and gave up and moved back to the east coast after a few years. Why make $200k out there and live in a box with two other people just to make ends meet (or suffer a brutal daily commute), when you can go back to Research Triangle or someplace, get paid $150k, and buy a nice house or rent a nice apartment and live well. I think eventually that housing issue is what will force a partial migration.

I agree entirely. I'm just waiting for these people to move so my commute will get better.

Curler said:
I have no idea how long these things would take, but probably within the next decade something has gotta give. Other places have better transportation options than here, for sure. Although I've never been to NYC, the subway seems a lot better than what we currently have here. Still, this is a bit of a special casen compared to other metropolitan areas, due to SF, how it operates, and the huge names in/around it.

Make no mistake-the New York subway is infinitely better than BART. It's run by professionals.

Miletius · Jan 15, 2019

Curler said:
I've already highlighted most of it in my points in the OP. I don't even necessarily mean an economic crash (although I did point out automation/offshoring effecting tech companies), but the overcapacity of people in the area + pricing. Resources are an issue, especially when you don't see more schools/enough hospitals/etc. opening up to contain the explosion of population. Where will retail/food/other service workers come from, if they can't afford it here? How much are people willing to deal with traffic, with poor transportation alternatives? The equilibrium of sustainability of residents, overall.

Edit: Do you live/have lived here before? Just wondering if this is from an outside perspective.

I mean honestly, based on most every other metro area in the US -- a lot. LA traffic is way worse than here, for example, and their public transportation is way worse. I don't think transportation will be the issue that breaks the Bay Area.

I don't see the Bay Area as being sustainable, but I also agree with the poser above that it depends on what you mean by unsustainable? Are you going to see a mass exodus of people leaving here all of a sudden? I don't think so. What you will see (and what is already happening, so some degree) is people moving out of the area and companies diversifying locations to places other than SF. Overall that's a good thing for this area and other areas like it. The honest answer is that if you're waiting for things to chance so that you'll have a better life here you're probably better off just moving because the change will not come for a while.

Septimus Prime · Jan 15, 2019

The costs here are extraordinary for everything. I definitely wonder if we're on the verge of a mass exodus of service employees, as I just don't see how it's possible to stay here while making $15/hr.

Miletius said:
LA traffic is way worse than here, for example, and their public transportation is way worse.

As a recent LA transplant, I could totally confirm this. I've had to cut most of my podcasts because my commute is so much easier now.

WedgeX · Jan 15, 2019

Dalek said:
I live here. No I don't think it's sustainable. I'm wondering what is going to break first.

1. BART is a fucking nightmare. It's always packed to the max. When I wait for my train, every 12 minutes a new train arrives-and everytime that train is packed. How is that possible? How the hell can there be this many people? They can't all be going to work. If so-I wish some of these companies would move out of San Francisco and maybe move to Oakland or Alameda. Why does everything have to be in San Francisco? The majority of people in the Bay Area don't live there. It's like these companies don't realize the Bay Area is more than SF.

I've been riding BART into the city since 2002 and it's just mind blowing how more packed it is. I just don't see things getting better. Anytime money gets allocated for BARt, somehow it gets routed right to the workers and the rider's experience never improves. I've seen those new BART cars - but coincidentally they're never on my route.

Car Traffic is a nightmare. Again-since 2002 I would say traffic has increased 5x at least. You can't go anywhere without sitting in traffic. Everything takes way more time than it should. I blame Uber and Lyft for a lot of this. Recently I had to drive my daughter to Orinda from Castro Valley to an orthodontist during the day. That took us 1 hour and 10 minutes one way.

My manager lives in San Jose and sometimes drives to our office in San Francisco. This morning it took her 2 hours. It is raining, though-but still.

2. Housing. something has to change-but I don't know what. There's nowhere to build in SF for a multitude of reasons. Foreign investors just buying up property as an investment to get their money out of their own country is obnoxious. I don't know how you block that either-but god damn is that annoying.

3. Tech Economy - Who knows? I'm in the tech/gaming economy and I have no idea what the future holds. One would think the bubble would burst again like the dot com bubble and change the landscape of SF, but it's nuts. Facebook, Google, LinkedIn and Salesforce all have major presence in downtown now. That's a LOT of people.

4. Earthquakes are the least of our worries.

I hate it here. I'm a homeowner in the Bay Area which is a miracle, but nothing would make me happier to move. Logistically it's not going to happen anytime soon because of my wife's job and family being close.

THERE ARE TOO MANY PEOPLE HERE

If you're waiting 12 minutes on a train and they're packed....wouldn't you want more frequent trains?

Dalek · Jan 15, 2019

WedgeX said:
If you're waiting 12 minutes on a train and they're packed....wouldn't you want more frequent trains?

Of course I would. But where are they? Ask BART if they can provide more trains/cars on the Dublin/Pleasanton line and guess what they're going to say.

Grain Silo · Jan 15, 2019

How do low-income workers in the Bay Area live? Do they group up in warehouses? Live with their parents?

Curler · Jan 15, 2019

Miletius said:
I mean honestly, based on most every other metro area in the US -- a lot. LA traffic is way worse than here, for example, and their public transportation is way worse. I don't think transportation will be the issue that breaks the Bay Area.

I don't see the Bay Area as being sustainable, but I also agree with the poser above that it depends on what you mean by unsustainable? Are you going to see a mass exodus of people leaving here all of a sudden? I don't think so. What you will see (and what is already happening, so some degree) is people moving out of the area and companies diversifying locations to places other than SF. Overall that's a good thing for this area and other areas like it. The honest answer is that if you're waiting for things to chance so that you'll have a better life here you're probably better off just moving because the change will not come for a while.

Unless there was a huge tech bubble burst, I don't expect large numbers of people leaving. There are tons of people leaving, but feels like 5 more people are coming in, for every 1 person (I would love to see real stats though). To me, I think "sustainability" is just more QoL for residents here.

kambaybolongo · Jan 15, 2019

Kirblar said:
It's sustainable if you build housing, which won't happen because lol SF.

*affordable housing

And by affordable housing I mean actually affordable housing

Kirblar · Jan 15, 2019

kambaybolongo said:
*affordable housing

And by affordable housing I mean actually affordable housing

You get affordable housing by building housing in large enough quantities that the price goes down. Not by building "affordable housing." This is why rents and home prices are falling in Seattle right now.

Take an economics course.

kambaybolongo · Jan 15, 2019

Kirblar said:
You get affordable housing by building housing in large enough quantities that the price goes down. Not by building "affordable housing." This is why rents and home prices are falling in Seattle right now.

Take an economics course.

Minored in Econ actually.

In the case of SF the government should be building affordable housing, yes, in large quantities.

Curler · Jan 15, 2019

Kirblar said:
You get affordable housing by building housing in large enough quantities that the price goes down. Not by building "affordable housing." This is why rents and home prices are falling in Seattle right now.

Take an economics course.

But what about when every spot is snapped up, overpaid, for investments? More homes here just mean more investment opportunities here for both local and foreign money. Since people are willing to pay more, a surplus of homes will continue to be expensive, until an actual housing economy bubble pops, and people stop investing in them for equity.

Sothen said:
How do low-income workers in the Bay Area live? Do they group up in warehouses? Live with their parents?

Yes and yes. I know a lot of people in their early 30s still not in a good spot. Lots of couples still living with each of their parents since they are still in school/saving up for homes/etc.

MinerArcaniner · Jan 15, 2019

TransEuropaExpress said:
I actually thought NYC car traffic is fun compared to the shit I dealt with in the Bay Area. My condolences.

Living in Long Island, and having worked in the city for years, I find this truly horrifying.

Dalek · Jan 15, 2019

gigantor21 said:
Living in Long Island, and having worked in the city for years, I find this truly horrifying.

I laugh at New York traffic.

Just imagine this-24/7 no matter where you go.

There are no alternate routes-you *have* to go this way-and everyone is crawling along at 5 mph. At every hour of the day.

Out at 3am? So are they! Just sitting there. Who are they? Where the hell are they going??

Do you think the Bay Area is sustainable?

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