Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2019 (Jan 07 - Jan 13)

fiendcode · Jan 18, 2019

ILikeFeet said:
I think there is a risk that DQB2 would get washed over by DQ11S if builders come later. 11 will dominate the mindshare for a good minute, so Builders coming out prior to 11 might be the best course of action. unless, of course, SE puts in work for Builders on PC/PS4 to make up for that

I don't think that matters much tbh. I can't really see any scenario where Builders 2 isn't a relatvely minor release, either before or after XI S. It's just not a release either SE or Nintendo is going to pump a lot of investment into overseas.

Fularu · Jan 18, 2019

HaremKing said:
Wow the Famitsu digital estimates match up quite well to the rankings on the eShop. That's quite bizarre considering how relatively few Switch games appear on those Famitsu charts.

Either I'm missing the sarcasm or you missread Chris's post

He listed the eshop ranks and included the famitsu « estimates » and they're hilariously bad

SinCityAssassin · Jan 18, 2019

HaremKing said:
Wow the Famitsu digital estimates match up quite well to the rankings on the eShop. That's quite bizarre considering how relatively few Switch games appear on those Famitsu charts.

HaremKing · Jan 18, 2019

Fularu said:
Either I'm missing the sarcasm or you missread Chris's post

He listed the eshop ranks and included the famitsu « estimates » and they're hilariously bad

Did you happen to see the relative descending digital estimate totals which corresponded to the eShop rankings? Look at 10th place through 15th for example.

My comment is that they synched up way more than they should have.

MANUELF · Jan 18, 2019

HaremKing said:
Did you happen to see the relative descending digital estimate totals which corresponded to the eShop rankings? Look at 10th place through 15th for example.

My comment is that they synched up way more than they should have.

I fail to see what you are talking about

Undertale has lower digital estimates than the 14th and 15th game and the 13th doesnt have any

Marukoban · Jan 18, 2019

HaremKing said:
Did you happen to see the relative descending digital estimate totals which corresponded to the eShop rankings? Look at 10th place through 15th for example.

My comment is that they synched up way more than they should have.

Did you intentionally skip over number 1-10, then? lol

HaremKing · Jan 18, 2019

Wait, you were expecting a pure 1:1 correlation? You understand that there were only a few Switch games each month that we even got any numbers for in those lists, right? There is a giant chasm of missing data and despite that, besides two outliers (Minecraft and Mario Party) its an overall descending arrangement with the full complete order provided by Nintendo's eShop.

It's absolutely bizarre that it ended up even that close considering just how little there was to go by. Honestly, expecting such a insignificant and incomplete fragment of data to line up more than it already is would be irrational.

Piston · Jan 18, 2019

I incorporate Famitsu Digital Estimates into my charts/data to account for approximate digital sales, but I feel dirty about it.

KtSlime · Jan 18, 2019

HaremKing said:
Wait, you were expecting a pure 1:1 correlation? You understand that there were only a few Switch games each month that we even got any numbers for in those lists, right? There is a giant chasm of missing data and despite that, besides two outliers (Minecraft and Mario Party) its an overall descending arrangement with the full complete order provided by Nintendo's eShop.

It's absolutely bizarre that it ended up even that close considering just how little there was to go by. Honestly, expecting such a insignificant and incomplete fragment of data to line up more than it already is would be irrational.

Can you see something we can't? I don't understand your point about 10-15 cause I'm fairly certain, 28.182 > 23.313 > 14.128 > ?? > 18.271 > 17.680 is not a true statement.

Trafalgar Law · Jan 18, 2019

any idea how well kingdom hearts 3 is tracking at ?

Pooroomoo · Jan 18, 2019

Marukoban said:
Did you intentionally skip over number 1-10, then? lol

What HaremKing says is not even true for 10-15...

Ah fascinating, this nonsense is coming from a poster with now 16 posts...

HaremKing · Jan 18, 2019

KtSlime said:
Can you see something we can't? I don't understand your point about 10-15 cause I'm fairly certain, 28.182 > 23.313 > 14.128 > ?? > 18.271 > 17.680 is not a true statement.

You don't think that's arranged in an overall decreasing order? Maybe the verbage "overall" is throwing you off. Maybe it'd be clear if I said "in general" instead.

casiopao · Jan 19, 2019

Famitsu digital estimates is pure trash. It should be put in garbage bin together with chartz lol

Kerotan · Jan 19, 2019

HaremKing said:
Wait, you were expecting a pure 1:1 correlation? You understand that there were only a few Switch games each month that we even got any numbers for in those lists, right? There is a giant chasm of missing data and despite that, besides two outliers (Minecraft and Mario Party) its an overall descending arrangement with the full complete order provided by Nintendo's eShop.

It's absolutely bizarre that it ended up even that close considering just how little there was to go by. Honestly, expecting such a insignificant and incomplete fragment of data to line up more than it already is would be irrational.

I'm confused. Some of you are saying they are crap but others saying ithey are good. So which is it?!

casiopao said:
Famitsu digital estimates is pure trash. It should be put in garbage bin together with chartz lol

lol chartz is always getting roasted on here.

SinCityAssassin · Jan 19, 2019

Kerotan said:
I'm confused. Some of you are saying they are crap but others saying ithey are good. So which is it?!

The former, and basically that reasoning he's putting out is we shouldn't expect something that unreliable to be more reliable, despite stating that in this case from his perspective it was surprisingly reliable.

casiopao · Jan 19, 2019

Kerotan said:
I'm confused. Some of you are saying they are crap but others saying ithey are good. So which is it?!

lol chartz is always getting roasted on here.

Chartz and famitsu digital estimates had been proven not once. Not twice but multiple times to be unreliable and provided wrong number when the true number is provided by respective company.

Thats why i feel it is just better to just ignore both those number for good as the only thing those 2 thing does is diluting the proper number.

Aters · Jan 19, 2019

casiopao said:
Famitsu digital estimates is pure trash. It should be put in garbage bin together with chartz lol

So what then? We know digital estimation is not accurate. So we just pretend there is no digital sales? I'd venture a guess that the digital estimation is closer to true number than assuming digital is 0.

Kerotan · Jan 19, 2019

Aters said:
So what then? We know digital estimation is not accurate. So we just pretend there is no digital sales? I'd venture a guess that the digital estimation is closer to true number than assuming digital is 0.

Very good point. We should definitely be factoring in digital and all this gen I have been with ps4 which has a ratio increasing every year. I wonder will the ps5 hit a point where digital/retail is 50/50. I have my doubts although I'm sure it will in the west at some point next gen.

Chris1964 · Jan 19, 2019

Sinobi expects NSMBU DX to become a million seller. After all these ports on Switch outperforming Wii U original releases he waits for a Pikmin 3 release.

casiopao · Jan 19, 2019

Aters said:
So what then? We know digital estimation is not accurate. So we just pretend there is no digital sales? I'd venture a guess that the digital estimation is closer to true number than assuming digital is 0.

Whats the leap of logic? Where did i said we dont need digital sales? Where the hell did i said we need to pretend there is 0 digital sales? Putting word in my mouth is meh meh meh bro.

And i disagree. I would rather have no information rather than wrong information. Because what? In business. No info mean u will need to decide your move based on other factor. Having wrong information can lead to further lost as u started on wrong foot.

So. Famitsu digital estimates sole purpose right now is only giving wrong info that derail the whole sales conversation.

Chris1964 · Jan 19, 2019

Aters said:
So what then? We know digital estimation is not accurate. So we just pretend there is no digital sales? I'd venture a guess that the digital estimation is closer to true number than assuming digital is 0.

I was trying to give Famitsu digital estimates the benefit of doubt in the beginning but the more I look into them the more I see they are off.

Sales tracking is based on samples, not speculation, and a bad one in this case.

casiopao · Jan 19, 2019

It is better to just give digital sales like 5% for nintendo platform and 15% for sony platform like the normal rate we usually had.

Anything outside of those will be considered out of norm and special case like some big games which experience stock problem.

MegaXZero · Jan 19, 2019

Kerotan said:
lol chartz is always getting roasted on here.

Chartz deserves it for being fake trash.

casiopao said:
Whats the leap of logic? Where did i said we dont need digital sales? Where the hell did i said we need to pretend there is 0 digital sales? Putting word in my mouth is meh meh meh bro.

And i disagree. I would rather have no information rather than wrong information. Because what? In business. No info mean u will need to decide your move based on other factor. Having wrong information can lead to further lost as u started on wrong foot.

So. Famitsu digital estimates sole purpose right now is only giving wrong info that derail the whole sales conversation.

Yup. Crap data only makes an argument weaker.

JJConrad · Jan 19, 2019

HaremKing said:
Wait, you were expecting a pure 1:1 correlation? You understand that there were only a few Switch games each month that we even got any numbers for in those lists, right? There is a giant chasm of missing data and despite that, besides two outliers (Minecraft and Mario Party) its an overall descending arrangement with the full complete order provided by Nintendo's eShop.

It's absolutely bizarre that it ended up even that close considering just how little there was to go by. Honestly, expecting such a insignificant and incomplete fragment of data to line up more than it already is would be irrational.

The vague correlation is caused by the Top 15 being made up of mostly Nintendo's top games and they generally follow their order in retail.... But Famitsu's order doesn't follow that same pattern. Game Data Library lists all the digital numbers and you can see Famitsu's order and compare that to Nintendo's. Famitsu's #1is Nintendo's #9. Nintendo's #3 is Famitsu's #12. There are some match up, but not a lot. MK8, Splatoon, Zelda, Taiko, Mario Odyssey, and Mario Party have no missing data through November, so you can't blame the errors on that. Under the Top 15, there is no correlation. There's just too much missing, too many lesser titles with data, and titles completely out of order to pretend that its useful.

There's also only two games on the digital only list that have any numbers. I have no idea why we have numbers for Puyo Puyo eSport andnothing for Human Fall Flat or Stardew Valley. But then we have numbers for Snipperclips.... I doesn't make sense.

Kerotan said:
I'm confused. Some of you are saying they are crap but others saying ithey are good. So which is it?

Their methodology is about as accurate as their Most Wanted numbers. As long as you're not concerned with accuracy or consistency... They're great.

Aters said:
So what then? We know digital estimation is not accurate. So we just pretend there is no digital sales? I'd venture a guess that the digital estimation is closer to true number than assuming digital is 0.

Have you tried a random number generator?

Fularu · Jan 19, 2019

Aters said:
So what then? We know digital estimation is not accurate. So we just pretend there is no digital sales? I'd venture a guess that the digital estimation is closer to true number than assuming digital is 0.

They're as good or relevant as IOI's numbers

AKA they are pure fantasy

Chris1964 · Jan 19, 2019

Full top 30. Let's see what pattern we'll discover this time.

01. [NSW] Super Smash Bros. Ultimate (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Nintendo) {2018.12.07} (¥7.200)
02. [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RCE> (Nintendo) {2017.04.28} (¥5.980) - 46.920 (Jan-Nov)
03. [NSW] Overcooked! 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Team 17) {2018.08.07} (¥2.546) - 19.040 (Aug)
04. [NSW] Splatoon 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.07.21} (¥5.980) - 45.019 (Jan-Nov)
05. [NSW] Super Mario Party (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2018.10.05} (¥5.980) - 17.352 (Oct-Nov)
06. [NSW] Octopath Traveler (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Square Enix) {2018.07.13} (¥6.800) - 76.326 (Jul-Aug)
07. [NSW] Kirby Star Allies (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.03.16} (¥5.980) - 50.844 (Mar-Sep)
08. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980)
09. [NSW] Minecraft (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Microsoft Game Studios) {2018.06.21} (¥3.600) - 94.529 (Jun-Nov)
10. [NSW] Mario Tennis Aces (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Nintendo) {2018.06.22} (¥5.980) - 28.182 (Jun-Sep)
11. [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥6.980) - 23.313 (Jan-Nov)
12. [NSW] Undertale (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (8-4) {2018.09.15} (¥1.500) - 14.128 (Sep)
13. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Eevee! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980)
14. [NSW] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum 'n' Fun! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Bandai Namco Games) {2018.07.19} (¥6.100) - 18.271 (Jul-Sep)
15. [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2017.10.27} (¥5.980) - 17.680 (Jan-Nov)
16. [NSW] FIFA 18 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SPT> (Electronic Arts) {2017.09.29} (¥5.800) - 8.675 (Jan+Jul)
17. [NSW] 1-2-Switch (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ETC> (Nintendo) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980) - 6.578 (Jan-Mar)
18. [NSW] Bayonetta (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.02.17} (¥3.480)
19. [NSW] Mega Man Legacy Collection 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.05.24} (¥2.769)
20. [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Nintendo) {2017.12.01} (¥7.980) - 3.591 (Jan)
21. [NSW] Dragon Quest Builders 2 (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.12.20} (¥7.800)
22. [NSW] Dragon Quest Builders (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Square Enix) {2018.03.01} (¥4.800) - 5.638 (Mar)
23. [NSW] Donkey Kong Country: Tropical Freeze (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Nintendo) {2018.05.03} (¥5.980) - 17.582 (May-Jul)
24. [NSW] Monster Hunter Generations Ultimate (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Capcom) {2017.08.25} (¥5.546) - 1.264 (Jan)
25. [NSW] Captain Toad: Treasure Tracker (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ADV> (Nintendo) {2018.07.13} (¥3.980) - 9.838 (Jul-Aug)
26. [NSW] Super Bomberman R (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Konami) {2017.03.03} (¥4.980)
27. [NSW] Mario + Rabbids: Kingdom Battle (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <SLG> (Nintendo) {2018.01.18} (¥5.980) - 8.933 (Jan-Mar)
28. [NSW] Capcom Beat 'Em Up Bundle (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Capcom) {2018.09.20} (¥3.056)
29. [NSW] Deemo (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <ACT> (Flyhigh Works) {2017.09.21} (¥2.777)
30. [NSW] Arms (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <FTG> (Nintendo) {2017.06.16} (¥5.980) - 2.425 (Jan-Feb)

00. [NSW] Pokemon: Let's Go, Pikachu! / Let's Go, Eevee! (ε) _Nintendo eShop Download Version_ |DL| <RPG> (Pokemon Co.) {2018.11.16} (¥5.980) - 88.039 (Nov)

Zedark · Jan 19, 2019

HaremKing said:
Wow the Famitsu digital estimates match up quite well to the rankings on the eShop. That's quite bizarre considering how relatively few Switch games appear on those Famitsu charts.

Wut, they don't match up at all!

Kerotan said:
I'm confused. Some of you are saying they are crap but others saying ithey are good. So which is it?!

lol chartz is always getting roasted on here.

One person is making s somewhat baffling claim that there is reason in this madness,everyone else is recognising that Famitsu numbers are arbitrary nonsense. Really,no need to be confused.

VGchartz gets roasted for a reason:they aren't reliable numbers,nothing like MC or NPD.

会津Aizuの復讐 · Jan 19, 2019

JJConrad said:
Have you tried a random number generator?

The number generated is definitely closer to true?

Fularu · Jan 19, 2019

会津Aizuの復讐 said:
The number generated is definitely closer to true?

May as well be

Zedark · Jan 19, 2019

Aters said:
So what then? We know digital estimation is not accurate. So we just pretend there is no digital sales? I'd venture a guess that the digital estimation is closer to true number than assuming digital is 0.

No one said we should ignore digital altogether. But using numbers that are proven to be inaccurate does not help in providing reasoned sales discussion. You will never be able to tell when they overestimate, when they underestimate, etc., so it's worthless for making sense of the market. Might as well not use them and apply some estimated standard percentage,or the random number generator as others have suggested.

boyifyoudont · Jan 19, 2019

New Yokai Watch 4 PV

hiska-kun · Jan 19, 2019

Btw, Tales of Vesperia Switch version hasn't been restocked and it's completely sold out in all Bic Camera and Yodobashi stores.

PS4 version is available in most places.

SinCityAssassin · Jan 19, 2019

That sure is the ni no kuni engine. Need to get as much value out of it as possible.

Oregano · Jan 19, 2019

hiska-kun said:
Btw, Tales of Vesperia Switch version hasn't been restocked and it's completely sold out in all Bic Camera and Yodobashi stores.

PS4 version is available in most places.

Preview of Famitsu digital estimates:
Tales of Vesperia (PS4): 35,403
Tales of Vesperia (NSW): 5,218

Chris1964 · Jan 19, 2019

It's still dated for Spring, Golden Week remains in schedule.

ggx2ac · Jan 19, 2019

Oregano said:
Preview of Famitsu digital estimates:
Tales of Vesperia (PS4): 35,403
Tales of Vesperia (NSW): 5,218

I think we're going to need to use vgchartz numbers and a random number generator to corroborate Famitsu's estimation of digital sales.

foxuzamaki · Jan 19, 2019

Have anybody done any research to see if any at all increase is caused by a direct

boyifyoudont said:
New Yokai Watch 4 PV

Sometimes the videos jist refuse to load on mobile and I have to wonder if im just looking at a jpeg

Ximonz · Jan 19, 2019

wow YW4 looks amazing, that camera and the world scale is so damn good.

ILikeFeet · Jan 19, 2019

boyifyoudont said:
New Yokai Watch 4 PV

Looking good. The environments are nicely built, albeit they look a little small, judging by the map

Sadist · Jan 19, 2019

hiska-kun said:
Btw, Tales of Vesperia Switch version hasn't been restocked and it's completely sold out in all Bic Camera and Yodobashi stores.

PS4 version is available in most places.

So Bamco underestimated demand for Vesperia Switch? Good sign really. Less for people wanting the game.

Chris1964 · Jan 19, 2019

So far these are the dated Golden Week games.

PS4
Pro Baseball Spirits 2019
Days Gone
Eve: Rebirth Terror
Fushigi no Gensokyo: Lotus Labyrinth

Switch
Final Fantasy XII: The Zodiac Age
Dragon's Dogma: Dark Arisen
Sword Art Online: Hollow Realization - Deluxe Edition
Fushigi no Gensokyo: Lotus Labyrinth

Yo-kai Watch 4 and Fire Emblem have a Spring release date.

sfortunato · Jan 19, 2019

boyifyoudont said:
New Yokai Watch 4 PV

The world-map looks good and a faithful representation of what appears in 3DS games even if the view is closer to the character.

One thing that is striking to me is the fact that we have three different "dimensions" in the game. To me, rather than a deliberate choice, this was a necessity for Level-5 to make the game as palatable as possible. Possibly, it was also because of each dimension had originally a different game planned but eventually Hino decided to cluster altogether.

foxuzamaki · Jan 19, 2019

sfortunato said:
The world-map looks good and a faithful representation of what appears in 3DS games even if the view is closer to the character.

One thing that is striking to me is the fact that we have three different "dimensions" in the game. To me, rather than a deliberate choice, this was a necessity for Level-5 to make the game as palatable as possible. Possibly, it was also because of each dimension had originally a different game planned but eventually Hino decided to cluster altogether.

Hope it won't be a RE6 situation

Deleted member 42484 · Jan 19, 2019

Chris1964 said:
Yo-kai Watch 4 and Fire Emblem have a Spring release date.

I'm still leaning on FE getting a delay if even to summer. It's been a little too radio silent for me to expect a surprise unveil and release as early as April/May.

Chris1964 · Jan 19, 2019

Denman said:
I'm still leaning on FE getting a delay if even to summer. It's been a little too radio silent for me to expect a surprise unveil and release as early as April/May.

The game has been unvealed, only the release date remains.

cw_sasuke · Jan 19, 2019

boyifyoudont said:
New Yokai Watch 4 PV

Looks great to be honest - nice to see this game coming together in it's final months.

Sadist said:
So Bamco underestimated demand for Vesperia Switch? Good sign really. Less for people wanting the game.

I don't think if it's that good of a sign of publishers/retailer keep misjudging demand for their Switch titles two years in ....just looking at how much Abyss 3D sold and how Switch is performing in general. It was a low shipment.

I get the feeling that publishers have less issues to undershoot a title if it results in higher digital sales.

Fisico · Jan 19, 2019

JoshuaJSlone said:
It's hard to generalize because there are so damn many releases to try and look at, but it does seem like portable Tales has had more legs than home Tales. What that means for hybrid Tales, we'll see.
Portable

Some outdated numbers (Vesperia and Abyss 3DS respectively) also legs of games (and Tales especially) got worse with time.
But yes there's a trend of handheld games faring better after FW and Switch games have better legs than PS4 games overall, however with lack of stock and low overall numbers it might not end up being too significant, a 70k-55k LTD retail number in PS4 favour wouldn't be too surprising.
Game is also 1.200y cheaper than Tales of Symphonia UP btw, could help to tackle used sales a little bit.

Deleted member 3700 · Jan 19, 2019

boyifyoudont said:
New Yokai Watch 4 PV

Looks great! Level5 still has time to polish it, so fingers crossed for final performance.

Zedark · Jan 19, 2019

boyifyoudont said:
New Yokai Watch 4 PV

... This looks amazing!

Lite_Agent · Jan 19, 2019

hiska-kun said:
So full of contradictions that I don't know from where I should start.
I guess SMP is the worst.

Well, first you could start with how much Famitsu readers hate Mario Party xD

Chris1964 said:
Sinobi expects NSMBU DX to become a million seller. After all these ports on Switch outperforming Wii U original releases he waits for a Pikmin 3 release.

Considering Pikmin 4 has already been confirmed (though it's gone completely MIA), wouldn't surprise me in the slightest.

hiska-kun said:
Btw, Tales of Vesperia Switch version hasn't been restocked and it's completely sold out in all Bic Camera and Yodobashi stores.

PS4 version is available in most places.

Good job, Bamco.

Media Create Sales: Week 2, 2019 (Jan 07 - Jan 13)

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