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Movie Awards Season 2018
- Thread starter Jiggy
- Start date
Let's not get all pessimistic yet. There's still time for them to get things right.
(You know it's bad when the A Star Is Born sweep outcome is more palatable than this.)
I mean, yeah, the PGAs did get the eventual Best Picture right last year but they were off the mark the previous two years with The Big Short and La La Land.
Spike Lee having to sit through and watch another movie about ending racism winning all the awards all over again is a gigantic mess. Just terrible.The potential best picture winner being either Green Book or Bohemian Rhapsody is just....
But at least Driving Miss Daisy was a major hit at the box office, which would explain the desire to reward it.. the same cannot be said for Green Book.
Globe + PGA means it's probably the favorite right now, but not by that much. Globe + PGA + SAG means everyone else has very little chance, especially since the actors make up the largest percentage of the Academy.
Also, the PGA has been right 21 out of 29 years.
On the bright side, Green Book isn't in the running for the SAG ensemble prize. So we can take some solace in that.
I knew I should have checked the nominees before I said all that.
Also, that means if Roma does win at the DGAs, then the directors, producers and actors will have all picked separate movies. I wonder when the last time that happened was.
2015
Directors guild went for The Revenant.
Producers guild went for The Big Short.
Actors guild went for Spotlight.
Golden Globes went to The Martian and The Revenant.
Best Picture at the Oscars went to Spotlight.
Compared to this year...
2018
Directors guild went for (BlackKklansman, Green Book, Roma, A Star Is Born, Vice).
Producers guild went for Green Book.
Actors guild went for (Black Panther, BlackKklansman, Bohemian Rhapsody, Crazy Rich Asians, A Star Is Born).
Golden Globes went to Bohemian Rhapsody and Green Book.
Best Picture at the Oscars goes to ??????????????.
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If I had to guess now, DGA goes for Roma, SAG goes for A Star is Born, and I have no idea what wins Best Picture.
The movie actually isn't terrible. Mahershala Ali is legitimately great... he's great in everything... although there's absolutely no way in hell that's a "supporting" performance. He's a lead actor.
The problem is all of the baggage the movie brings with it - Farrelly exposing himself on movie sets, Viggo's N-Word snafu, Vallelonga's anti-Muslim tweet and whitewashing his father's story with fabricated nonsense, the wholly justified Shirley family criticisms and Hollywood's invariable back-patting over how progressive its white producers are - oh and here's Octavia Spencer so we can pretend we had some colored folk help out.
That's not much... but you're right.
For what it's worth, almost all of the "experts" and on Gold Derby have moved their Best Picture predictions off of A Star Is Born and over to Green Book in the wake of the PGA Awards.
Experts (w/ updated brackets post-PGA)
Green Book - 5
Roma - 5
The Favourite - 1
A Star Is Born - 1
The folks who've been banking on Roma being awarded the first ever Best Picture Oscar for a foreign film are continuing to remain firm and that trend should likely be maintained provided it holds serve with the Directors Guild. The SAGs will determine whether this becomes a 3-horse race or not.
I'm still in the camp that doesn't feel Roma can contend despite having it as my #1 film of 2018 on my personal list. It just has too many variables weighing against it... non-English language, black and white, Netflix distribution, no A-list stars, negligible box office. It would be nice to think of Green Book's aforementioned baggage being more of an anchor but sadly, in 2019 Hollywood, Roma's "deficiencies" hold more weight against Oscar success (outside of its likely wins for foreign film, director and cinematography).
I wouldn't say that. Preferential ballot makes a world of difference and BAFTA has missed on Best Picture pretty much ever since the Academy adopted it.
I mean, Roma could have EASILY more 1st place votes than Green Book by far and still LOSE the Best Picture race. Because no winner is declared until all of the bottom-feeders get dropped and the 2nd place votes become worth just as much. And then the 3rd place votes become worth just as much.
And when Roma is the perceived front-runner, folks in the Academy can and will sabotage their ballots intentionally to rank it last so that Netflix or a foreign film or a black-and-white film or the front-runner or whatever their logic is doesn't win. And that opens the door for something like Green Book to come up through the middle.
Only the PGAs have a preferential ballot system to determine their winner... and Green Book WON there besting out the entire Best Picture field plus Crazy Rich Asians and A Quiet Place. No reason the same thing can't happen with the Academy itself.
I know how the voting works. I know BAFTAs are not particularly good indicator for BP race but with Roma's win there The Favourite's chances are truly dead and that leaves us with Roma being by far the top contender for BP despite all that's riding against it (b&w pic, in a foreign language, championed by Netflix). Green Book is still second with like 1% chance that the votes are distributed in a way that BlacKkKlansman wins, but everyone else is pretty much dead now.
If "Green Book" wins, the Academy will get raked over the coals for it. In the social media age, the Oscars cannot afford to have another "Crash"-type debacle.
That's not how any of this works. Like at all. I think Roma is the favorite at this point, but things can happen to change that, especially considering there hasn't been a single vote cast yet.
Edit: The thing that makes this year so hard is that we didn't have all of the favorites in most of the guild awards, so you had different movies winning with different guilds (Roma and The Favorite weren't at SAG, The Favourite wasn't at DGA). The top movies haven't faced off against each other before today since the PGAs (where Green Book beat both Roma and Favourite), and there's been a lot of time and money spent between then and now to change minds, so it's hard to get an idea of what the consensus might be.
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Honestly Bohemian Rhapsody winning would be way worse than Green Book. Imagine a movie that portrays gay people as villains winning an Oscar in 2019.
You're not wrong. It's also a worse movie overall with a child molester for a director. Pretty much ANYTHING would be better than that.
There are a lot of movies to root against winning Best Picture (for the record ERA, Black Panther is NOT one of those films) but the way the preferential ballot works is that we won't have a fricken clue as to what that final movie will be until that envelope is opened at the end. Green Book could win nothing all night outside of Mahershala Ali as supporting actor and some 4 hours after he wins the movie could wind up being celebrated as the Best Picture of the Year. Easily.
Momentum doesn't determine a Best Picture winner anymore. Hell, it's actually a deterrent in the case of something like Roma because voters starting tomorrow will have every reason in the world to mark it last if they don't want it to win over something else.
Roma will won BP. I've been confident in that for months. I know some of y'all kept bringing up that it's netflix, it's black and white, Spanish, etc. it just doesn't matter. Netflix campaign has been outstanding and it's going all the way.
I believe there's some dollar figure floating around that Netflix has spent $20 million on netting Roma its Best Picture win back in January and I'm sure that amount has ballooned even larger than that now. Hopefully Hollywood's love of money and being bribed wins out over its other predispositions. I would love to see Roma win as it's my favorite movie from last year.
Mail me $20 so I don't have use my own money to watch Green Book
Apparently we're being blamed for Green Book's win. After all this was written by lazybones18 last night when I insinuated that Green Book might win a little over 24 hours ago.
I'm sure it'll be on Netflix soon enough.
They spent $30 million when all was said and done.
Still couldn't outmuscle Hollywood's Netflix hate and admiration of its homegrown white savior flick.
Irishman and Once Upon a Time in Hollywood look like on paper frontrunners, but's it's hilariously early. Nobody even mentioned Green Book or the Shape of Water until the summer, and nobody ever considered them as contenders until the fall
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood should at least get some acting nods, even Hateful Eight got as much. However, I have a feeling Irishman will be a disaster. I really hope I'm wrong, but I can see it falling flat on it's face and getting no or barely any noms, like Silence.
- Spielberg's "West Side Story"
- QT's "Once Upon a Time In Hollywood"
- Scorsese's "The Irishman"
- Wes Anderson's new joint
- James Mangold's "Ford v. Ferrari"