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THEVOID

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,931
Alita looking at a 60% drop. I thought the WOM would propel better dom BO.
 

Seeya

Banned
Oct 27, 2017
7,984
Alita has crashed and burned.
Simply not true. -60% these days is not a big drop. Wouldn't be surprised to see Alita slightly beat that estimate.



Keep in mind that the move was originally looking to do 45-50m territory. It showed some positive momentum on Saturday, could ebb over 65m.
 
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Cuburger

Member
Oct 28, 2017
10,975
You're letting them kill Alita!

China,
tumblr_o5s953cp3b1v5jx82o7_500.gif

Save Alita!
 

berzeli

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,384
Yeah, so have I. I really enjoyed the movie and really want there to be a sequel, but it doesn't look like it has a chance now. I'll still buy the movie when it releases on UHD.

I'm still sad :(
Yeah I saw it last night and it was bad in a lot of ways, but still overall really charming and enjoyable to watch. I really want a sequel.
Y'all give up too easy. Here let me help you with the campaign to save it:
bECSNzl.jpg


Now I won't ask for much in return; just watch Ruben Brandt, Collector or Missing Link in cinemas so that animation doesn't die. kthxbye
 

Nappuccino

The Fallen
Oct 25, 2017
13,123
I can see them giving an Alita 2 ticket with a bit of a budget cut. Thankfully, they have a roadmap in the manga, so they won't have to worry about a Pacific Rim Uprising derailment.
 

Nexus2049

Banned
Oct 25, 2017
3,833
If James Cameron wants a sequel, I have a feeling he'll get it, even if it doesn't do great at the box office.
 

Ichthyosaurus

Banned
Dec 26, 2018
9,375
I need a sequel to Alito yesterday. Now I've seen it I'm relieved Robert got to direct it rather than Cameron. I don't see modern day Cameron making such a lovely film we got. The lead was a genius cast, charismatic, relatable and looked identical to Alito from the manga.
 

Gatti-man

Banned
Jan 31, 2018
2,359
Estimates say that the movie needs upwards of $500 million to break even.

Let's be optimistic and say the movie does $160 million domestically. Fox gets about 75% of that, so they have $120 million in pocket.

Let's say that foreign gross doubles that, so $320 million overseas. They grab a 50% cut, so $160 million.

That's $280 million so far.

They get a 25% cut from China, so in order to make up that last $220 million, Alita would have to gross $880 million in China.

Reminder that the biggest movie in China ever, Wolf Warrior 2, grossed $867 million.

And that's all just to break even.

Sorry kids, this is a real Power Rangers-ing right here.
The 500 million figure is including all that except chinas steep cut.
 

Cuburger

Member
Oct 28, 2017
10,975
Niche message board opinions are not word of mouth
It has a Cinemascore of an A-.

Also PostTrak says reception has been good.

Who has turned out to Alita to date? In updated PostTrak, M25+ at 34% are the biggest quad, giving the pic its best grade at 84%. This is followed by men under 25 at 26% (with a 71% grade), then females under 25 (21% with a 73% grade), and females over 25 (19% turnout, 78% positive score). Overall, a healthy 59% recommend. Those between 13-17 made up 8% of Alita's ticket buyers, giving it an 81% score. Among kids under 12, Boys 10-12 were the biggest demo at 37% followed by Girls 10-12 (23%). But girls loved the movie more at 100% versus boy's 77%.

Then looking at audience scores across the internet have been pretty positive coming out of that first weekend. It might not be enough to get people rushing to see it the second weekend, but we'll see how Alita's legs hold up beyond that, as well as overseas. China also has positive WOM, from outlets that track that, and has been trending upwards from initial projections for the weekend.

You'd know that if you read this niche message board thread though.
 
Oct 28, 2017
13,691
It has a Cinemascore of an A-.

Also PostTrak says reception has been good.



Then looking at audience scores across the internet have been pretty positive coming out of that first weekend. It might not be enough to get people rushing to see it the second weekend, but we'll see how Alita's legs hold up beyond that, as well as overseas. China also has positive WOM, from outlets that track that, and has been trending upwards from initial projections for the weekend.

You'd know that if you read this niche message board thread though.

I'm looking at the receipts, and the movie is losing money, so "word of mouth" is kind of meaningless when it doesn't expand the audience. Word of mouth in this case is strongest in narrow, niche circles.
 

Window

Member
Oct 27, 2017
8,291
It has a Cinemascore of an A-.

Also PostTrak says reception has been good.



Then looking at audience scores across the internet have been pretty positive coming out of that first weekend. It might not be enough to get people rushing to see it the second weekend, but we'll see how Alita's legs hold up beyond that, as well as overseas. China also has positive WOM, from outlets that track that, and has been trending upwards from initial projections for the weekend.

You'd know that if you read this niche message board thread though.
100% of girls between 10-12 liking the film sure is something.
 
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Cuburger

Member
Oct 28, 2017
10,975
I'm looking at the receipts, and the movie is losing money, so "word of mouth" is kind of meaningless when it doesn't expand the audience. Word of mouth in this case is strongest in narrow, niche circles.
WOM means legs. You were just looking to make a snarky remark if you don't grasp that.
 

shintoki

Member
Oct 25, 2017
15,232
Alita started too low to be saved. It not being a bomb is a win itself, but its not crawling to a sequel either.

Alita will not be a Jupiter Ascending, John Carter, Tomorrowland level bomb. I could see it falling into that 300mil+ area were films still take a loss in theaters, get to black with TV, home sales, etc. But will never be brought up again in conversation to continue the franchise.
 
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THEVOID

Prophet of Regret
Member
Oct 27, 2017
22,931
We are on the same page. WOM has been great for Alita, but it didn't filter down to the BoxOffice.

I mean I guess it did from what the movie was expected to do, but not enough.
 

Cuburger

Member
Oct 28, 2017
10,975
A 60% drop stateside means no legs. It's not a snarky remark, it's reality. WOM has not propelled the movie beyond a specific niche audience (which includes me btw).
60% isn't a great start, but determining legs is obviously what happens beyond that. Sometimes WOM isn't enough to get people rushing in the second week to see it but has them trickling in for weeks after that.

And beyond the U.S. if China has a good opening that exceeds expectations and overall earns on par with, say, Ready Player One over it entire run there, that definitely is WOM.
 

Critch

Banned
Dec 10, 2017
1,360
60% isn't a great start, but determining legs is obviously what happens beyond that. Sometimes WOM isn't enough to get people rushing in the second week to see it but has them trickling in for weeks after that.

And beyond the U.S. if China has a good opening that exceeds expectations and overall earns on par with, say, Ready Player One over it entire run there, that definitely is WOM.

It dropped 60% in a week where the only new competition was an animated kids film. Next week it loses theaters, and then Captain Marvel arrives to binary-blast it. At best this is another Warcraft situation, where it flakes out but it makes some money in China, and since this wasn't a Chinese co-production the studios only get 25% of the take there.
 
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