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November 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, December 5th

Benji

Benji

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Oct 25, 2017
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PS4 could have easily cleared 2 million units if Sony was willing to sell that many at that low of the price point.

I'm really curious if we get a permanent cut late in 2018 or if they hold out till 2019. Have to keep profit margins in mind but there is also a huge amount of demand that low. Question is how you strike the balance between up front cost and lower price points that will get more users into subscription revenue and digital game sales.
 
DriftingSpirit

DriftingSpirit

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Oct 25, 2017
17,933
Benji said:
There is still so much demand for consoles at sub $200 prices. If and when Sony and MS manage to get sku's permanently in that price range we will see a ton of units moved. As in the past that price is still a magic number to impulse buy for a lot of consumers
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This is what I am waiting for. If it does happen, I don't think this year will be peak for PS4.
 
Majiebeast

Majiebeast

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Oct 25, 2017
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Feels good to predict over 1.5mil for PS4.

amusd.gif
 
Theorry

Theorry

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Oct 27, 2017
61,277
MOD EDIT: Tweet removed for being an incorrect source of information.
 
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chobel

chobel

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"least half of those being Xbox One X's"
I call bullshit.
 
Gamer17

Gamer17

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Oct 30, 2017
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But this data shows one thing .xbx1s is a much less desirable product than PS4 slim based on the market behaviour we observed even with price advantage of 1s . I remember in 2016 ,all the people at gaf were saying 1s was a much more desirable product than slim due to UHD player . Sony made a decision and it was the correct one ,even though I would have liked them to add it .
 
Benji

Benji

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DriftingSpirit said:
This is what I am waiting for. If it does happen, I don't think this year will be peak for PS4.
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If Sony cut to $199 in 2018 for a decent amount of time (think August / Septemberish) I think we could see similar or better numbers compared to 2017 in 2018.

Question is if they are willing to go so low. Its all about whether Sony thinks the influx of consumers going that low and buying things like PS+ subscriptions, and digital games will outweigh the amount of revenue they would lose up front on the console. It's a big cut and I'm not sure they are willing to do it next year, especially with how conservative they were with shipments for the $199 sku this year. We are talking PS4 was close to a near sell out at many places before Black Friday proper itself even kicked off.

But it will be interesting to watch.
 
Bunkles

Bunkles

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Oct 26, 2017
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Xbox One X selling 700k at $500 would be quite impressive.
 
Gamer17

Gamer17

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Oct 30, 2017
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So 1x almost outsold switch even though it's 200$ more expensive .damn impressive .

And I m sure pro was crushed as well .hope Sony notices how u do a mid gen revision ;)
 
bane833

bane833

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Nov 3, 2017
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Bitch Pudding said:
Actually, not so sure about that (anymore). Sony already introduced discounts for its Pro and PSVR. But no news about a discounted PS4 Slim yet. Last year, they announced the price drop for the Slim on December 7th, which became effective on the 11th.
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Maybe they're trying to test the waters a bit longer this year. There are already deals for the Pro and PSVR.
 
cakely

cakely

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Oct 27, 2017
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I might need to see some receipts on 700k Xbox One X.

But wow, if that's true ... demand for the Xbox One S has completely dropped off.
 
5Twist

5Twist

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Oct 27, 2017
559
700K XB1X is mighty impressive, but doesn't that not bode well for the XB1S? If the XB1X sales can be maintained, then Microsoft won't care that much if the XB1S falls by the wayside. However, looking at the YOY comparison between BF 2017 and BF 2016 in the UK, the numbers suggest that the XB1X's sales were very frontloaded in a region that has similar market trends to the US.
 
DriftingSpirit

DriftingSpirit

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Oct 25, 2017
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Edit - Yeah, if true, it does show how the S momentum has stalled, and I don't think most of that can be attributed to waiting on the X.

Benji said:
If Sony cut to $199 in 2018 for a decent amount of time (think August / Septemberish) I think we could see similar or better numbers compared to 2017 in 2018.

Question is if they are willing to go so low. Its all about whether Sony thinks the influx of consumers going that low and buying things like PS+ subscriptions, and digital games will outweigh the amount of revenue they would lose up front on the console. It's a big cut and I'm not sure they are willing to do it next year, especially with how conservative they were with shipments for the $199 sku this year. We are talking PS4 was close to a near sell out at many places before Black Friday proper itself even kicked off.

But it will be interesting to watch.
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Yeah, all about balance and maybe even stock. I think Sony should bite the bullet in order to improve stuff like PS+. I think they would also need some really strong software to help drive subs and digital buys though. They can do $250 with a bundled game for most of 2018, and drop in the fall as you said. As we head toward the end of the generation, I think upping the main revenue drivers should take priority over the smaller revenue from consoles sold.

malrock said:
The thing we have to ask though is how many of those X's were sold to existing Xbox One owners though. I know I bought one and I already had two Xbones
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Oh, it is almost surely selling to that same base. I don't think they are expanding their market. They are just getting more money from the base they already have. 700K at $499 would be great.
 
Thorrgal

Thorrgal

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Oct 26, 2017
12,468
cakely said:
I might need to see some receipts on 700k Xbox One X.

But wow, if that's true ... demand for the Xbox One S has completely dropped off.
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Was thinking the same...if most of those X sales were front loaded and the X demand doesn't stay the same in december...

Edit: Beaten by 5Twist
Edit 2: Guess the X number is bs
 
Elandyll

Elandyll

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Oct 25, 2017
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chobel said:
"least half of those being Xbox One X's"
I call bullshit.
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If that is true it doea not bode well for the future imo.
It means their mass appeal console did well under 1m at $189, and seeing the 1X being heavily front loaded we might see a huge drop in Dec and even worse in Jan/ Feb.
700k+ 1X would be insane (again, good for the initial run, but possibly terrible for the months to come).
Not buying it either.

Edit: yeah apparently not true.
 
ZhugeEX

ZhugeEX

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Oct 24, 2017
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Also. Don't think the numbers posted in this thread are correct.

They're not that accurate.
 
slavesnyder

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Oct 26, 2017
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Thorrgal said:
If you think about it the guys over at Sony are wizards. They knew they had to lower the price to $199, and knew exactly how many PS4s to put at $199 to beat MS by 10% again...and when they sold them out they didn't replace them.

They could've sold any number they wanted but did it best to maximize profit and still be Number 1 on NPD

I guess that's a sign that being first on the NPD is somewhat valuable for them.
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they apparently bribed someone at npd and got the november numbers leaked at least 4 weeks ago. that's a break of confidence unheard of. mat owes us an explanation.
 
Welfare

Welfare

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Oct 26, 2017
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YAY something to work with! ~+40% YOY for PS4 and XB1 is incredible. Predicted that for XB1, but PS4 did spectacularly great. Black Friday was huge.
 
ZhugeEX

ZhugeEX

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Oct 24, 2017
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N.Domixis said:
So that thread about NPD sales is confirmed fake or not true numbers?
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Not as such. It's just people are putting too much stock in percentage calculations based on older leaked numbers which in themselves weren't that accurate either.

The ranking isn't wrong or anything like that.
 
Astandahl

Astandahl

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Oct 28, 2017
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ZhugeEX said:
Not as such. It's just people are putting too much stock in percentage calculations based on older leaked numbers which in themselves weren't that accurate either.

The ranking isn't wrong or anything like that.
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Thanks Zhuge. At least we have a ballpark. At the end of the story November has been a great month for Nintendo Microsoft and Sony.
 
Sangetsu-II

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Oct 26, 2017
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Bitch Pudding said:
Actually, not so sure about that (anymore). Sony already introduced discounts for its Pro and PSVR. But no news about a discounted PS4 Slim yet. Last year, they announced the price drop for the Slim on December 7th, which became effective on the 11th.
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If you look closely at the deals they have announced this month PSVR deals is from the 10th to the 24th and PS4 Pro is from the 10th to the 16th. How oddly pecurliar it ends on Star Wars Movie Day and still has a week without any console deals but has a VR deal. Weird...hmmm. Didn't PS4 have a Star Wars Bundle?...hmm a surprise deal could be waiting for us on the 16th through the 24th, who knows.
 
ZhugeEX

ZhugeEX

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Oct 24, 2017
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Astandahl said:
Thanks Zhuge. At least we have a ballpark. At the end of the story November has been a great month for Nintendo Microsoft and Sony.
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That is the number 1 takeaway here. We know both hardware and software were up. We know November was an extremely healthy month.

People are overanalysing the results based on 'leaked' numbers that aren't actually that accurate anyway.
 
The Last One

The Last One

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