True, maybe they chose that because pubs told them that's what the expect from other consoles
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Next gen PS5 and next Xbox launch speculation - Secret sauces spicing 2019
- Thread starter Phoenix Splash
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I do believe that game streaming is (sadly) the future. And sadly it will be the future for all the wrong reasons. It will be the future because the people who make the call are also the ones who are not really gamer. It is the suits who see how successful Netflix and Spotify and all the other streaming things are. They do not understand that gaming is different. It will be a sad future for me because I am hyper sensitive towards additional latency.
I agree. Stadia is definitely aimed at taking share away from Microsoft and Sony (and I guess it is safe to expect next gen consoles to be roughly in the ballpark of 10.7 TFLOPs) and they all want to take a big piece of pie from the "2 billion gamers worldwide" market. (Which is a bit of a stupid goal in my opinion because even though 2 billion people have access to some sort of internet or device that could stream it to, they don't have the internet to handle that, they don't have the money, and most assured no company has the infastructure to target every single one of those people).
My comment was more aimed at people basing expectations for next gen consoles on the google streaming thing like in a napkin math scenario á la google has 10.7 Tflops in 2019 -> that means Sony will have 14.2 TFLOPs in 2020 and Phil Spencer said Microsoft is going to have the most powerful console -> so Xbox Big Scarlett is 16.8 TFLOPs.
There might be a case to be made about saying Sony and Microsoft want to go above 10.7 Tflops for their next gen consoles for marketing reasons so they can stick one up to google again.
I think that I would consider that expectation to be reasonable. 60CUs @ higher than 1400MHZ and you have around 11 TFLOPs which is probably a very realistic expectation for a late 2020 console around $399-499.
Oh yes my clockspeed estimation is very high. I think 1400MHZ-1500MHZ for the Navi GPU inside the PS5/XboxScarlett is going to be realistic, but I think that the amount of compute units they can fit into the die space they feel comfortable is lower than people think.
My estimation (as of right now) is still 56 CUs @ 1400MHZ for exactly 10 TFLOPs. (Those are my lowest estimations for a 399$ PS5 console in Q3-Q4 2020).
And I am not sure how expensive a 7nm die with 72CUs would be (if we go by the double amount of PS4pro). I can understand the logic behind it going from PS4 Pro has 36CUs at 16nm so 72CUs at 7nm for PS5 is possible (I haven't done the math and I don't know if it exactly lines up like that especially considering early 7nm yields and binning) plus the additional core clock increase we inevitably get from going to a smaller manufacturing process.
So yeah 72CUs @ 1500MHZ would give us 13.8TFLOPs, but if that is possible for a console in terms of cost per unit / power draw / die size I can't say. I feel like it would be too expensive, too power hungry and too big for a console.
With all that being said I would love to be proven wrong and being surprised by next gen, but in all fairness there are also other things that are going to cost money which I think are more important than raw TFLOPs. Like you mentioned better cooling would be very nice to have considering it is going to allow for higher clockspeeds but also (if done properly) it makes your console quieter, which I do have a problem with in my PS4 being too loud imho.
And then we obviously need more and faster RAM, a better build quality Controller, and an SSD would be a substantial upgrade for the next generation of consoles. In my opinion SSD prices in 2020 should come down so far that going with an SSD is the only logical option for both Sony and Microsoft.
Yes, I factor in form factor, power draw, cooling, noise-level and of course cost. Consoles are not about what is possible but what is feasible and balanced for those kind of things.
Yeah but with that type of performance in 2020 and with Stadia at 10.7tf out since 2019 and playable on any browser it would be a huge disappointment with 10tf or even less.
Of course more performance is always better. But we also have to take into account what Navi can do with better efficiency. Just like Nvidia is more efficient having the same peak performance. That is one of my hopes that may be achieved here by AMD.
But still. How would they be able to hype the hardware unveil? Can't go for portability like Nintendo since Stadia is on phones as well. Can't go for performance since Stadia is better even on a crappy laptop. And a 2 year old 1080ti many of us have is better (11.3tf) as well. I hear you but I definitely hope you're wrong.
Read Albert Penello's threadmark for a first hand explanation of when decisions are made and how much lead time there is between deciding spec/price and the product releasing (hint: It's years). Stadia's 10.7tf would have been decided 2 or more years ago I would think.
Showing good games with amazing graphics. That is what we want.
The masses are not impressed by numbers. Just show a game that looks like what next gen can look like.
As far as comparison to discrete desktop GPUs go they are not an idicator for good graphics. God of War on my 1.8 TFLOPs PS4 looks amazing. They are no games on PC on a GTX 1080 Ti that look 6x as good as God of War even though the TFLOP number is a lot higher.
Even if the PS5 is going to be lower in performance than a GTX 1080 Ti we will see games on the PS5 that will make current PC games on the GTX 1080 Ti at maxxed out settings look like outdated junk from 2003.
All these teraflops are going to be meaningless when most gamers are streaming games launched from links sent over Facebook/Gmail/Ghat, Whatsapp etc within the window of THIS generation.
That os assuming each cu has the same amount of shaders. If they double the thee shaders per cu, then they can do 64-8 cus on next Gen and still get the same result or maybe even better at 1.2ghz. Am I right or not? Either way, 1-1.2ghz would be a more realistic expectation for a console apu so hopefully each cu is packing more. That i.belive doubling the amount of shader cores in each cu wouldake 56 cus equivalent to 112 cus of vega which seems perfectly reasonable and a much more resonable expectation than 1.5ghz but I. Not sure. But at the end of the day, TFLOPS is not the end all.be all with the cpu and ram upgrade it'll all be a Really good package
GoW looked great but ran at 30fps at 1080p, that won't fly in 2020 on a dedicated ~$400 gaming box when you'll get twice that on a standard phone or a simple chromecast if streaming arrives in the state it's been promised in 2019. So a lot of those extra teraflops going from PS4 to PS5 will go into double the performance and resolution instead of pushing the graphics, which makes it important to aim high. People still want to get wowed at the hardware unveil and the bar has clearly been raised now.
Not sure what Navi is going to change. Having more CUs does mean more die space required and more cost. More shader per CU would probably mean the same thing and doesn't change the "PERFORMANCE POWER per AREA" unless I am mistaken here then please correct me. It might be something that is more important for high end Desktop cards.
I am also not worried about TFLOPs in the slightest. It is fun to speculate about, but the number doesn't really mean much in the end. If Sony sends out dev kits with 12 TFLOPs then the devs aim for 12 TFLOPs. Same for 8 Tflops or 15 Tflops. Like you mentioned the advancement in CPU and RAM are much more exciting (and much, much, much more important) for a generational leap. The first games (the actual games that come out the year or shortly after next gen consoles come out) are probably only looking a little bit better than the PS4 games that come out right before next gen comes. Later in the cycle the games are starting to look amazing again.
More TFLOPs is better within the same architecture, but I hope that Navi can improve a lot on prior AMD micro architectures so that 10 Navi Tflops would be better than 10 Vega Tflops. This is something Nvidia is much better at than AMD (sadly).
On my personal priority list (things I wish for the PS5) the raw GPU performance is pretty far down the list to be honest.
I don't care about streaming once bit. I want to own a piece of hardware and a physical gaming disc. I don't want additional latency. Pretty sure God of War is still going to be better and look better than everything google can offer on stadia in the next 2 years.
Google: "that's fine you can use 4 instances. That'll be an extra 10% to us on the Rev share deal per copy sold"
Putting teraflops aside for the next 10 pages or so and moving back to the CPU.
You guys think an AMD 7nm 8c/16T CPU @ 3.2ghz is capable of performing High-Performance Physics and Destruction like this?
Because this is the other-side of a generational console leap that i'm really looking forward too.
You guys think an AMD 7nm 8c/16T CPU @ 3.2ghz is capable of performing High-Performance Physics and Destruction like this?
Because this is the other-side of a generational console leap that i'm really looking forward too.
Yeah definitely AMD 7nm valhalla. 8c/16T would be amazing, my expectations are 6c/12t but someone quoted me and said it wasn't possible for some reason. I am sorry if I don't remember correctly but it was something that I was not familiar with.
I uh.. accidentally pressed enter and only posted half my post that you replied too, ment can that hypothetical CPU run high performing physics and destruction like the video i posted above lol.
in a perfect world maybe where everything is optimized towards this and people put enough manhours into doing something like this then yes.
But realistically I think that this too hard to achieve, but I feel like we are getting more destructible environment in the next generation of consoles.
Imho the bigger problem would be creating games that offer those kinds of destructible environments and still make sense. Lets say playing Resident Evil and shooting down a building with a rocket launcher but you need to go through a tunnel in that building, that is now buried under debris, in order to go on with the story. It would be cool, but I guess this is maybe more of a multiplayer thing or sandbox games. Really hard to pull off.
But theoretically yes. I could see it happen in a multiplayer game (maybe not as good looking as that demo) on the next gen consoles with a lot more destructible environment than we have now.
Speaking of which, really loved Battlefield 4's 'Levolution' of having the entire map changed destruction wise from start to finish of a match, would love to see that in future multiplayer next gen games thanks to a beefier CPU.
Picture this: 1000 players in an hour long match in a large open map filled with beautiful scenery and structures that can be rendered into a destroyed wasteland after an intense match tons of physics and environmental destruction that can change the flow of a match instantly.
High-Performance Physics and Destruction have always interested me in how it evolves per console generation and how developers can use it to their advantage to give us impressive realistic level designs not just visually but physically too next gen.
Yes I guess I am with you on that. It could be a very cool feature (like your example of BF4 levolution but to a much bigger extend) for future multiplayer games, but it would be a pain to balance strong weapons (anything rocket launcher, granades etc.) around.
But yes it would be amazing if they could do much more in those areas. Doesn't have to be buildings. It would be a nice step up if we could destroy smaller things like cars, signs, traffic lights
I dont bet that they will put resources on improving performance.
They will try to make the best looking game and it will keep running at 30fps
The possibilities of a non static environment in future next gen games thanks to a beefier CPU granting developers the physics freedom thy need to bring their world alive and breathing excites me.
The next generation should be the age of a console physics Renaissance, destruction, hair-works, cloth simulations, giant crowds etc. the works. thanks to Ryzen's boost over Jaguar.
Personally I expect a 8C/16T Zen 2 clocked in the range of 2.8-3.2GHz, which should be 3-4x faster than 1.6GHz Jaguar and competitive with the current 9900K on a clock-for-clock basis. It will be worlds better than Jaguar, and up to 8x faster in FP throughput, I'd imagine.
To answer your question; yes, it will be able to keep up with intense physics that any modern CPU would run in a gaming scenario.
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Thanks for sharing your knowledge. I do also believe this doesn't have a real influence on PS5/Scarlett power
Sorry if this has been already discussed but what's the consensus about next gen consoles having comparable computing power (CPU, RAM and GPU wise) to Stadia?
Insofar as HW is concerned, Stadia is unconstrained by form factor, cooling solution and power requirements.
Insofar as HW is concerned, Stadia is unconstrained by form factor, cooling solution and power requirements.
Still in the 10-12 tf range for anaconda. Stadia specks mean nothing really for home consoles.
The hypothetical next gen console CPU can rival an i7 9700K? Holy crap thats amazing, leagues better then Jaguar.
We will see a boost but some of that stuff will still be done on the GPU .
So i hope they have a good balance.
Speaking of which, has there ever been a console generation that has had a perfect balance of GPU, CPU & RAM without any of each other bottle necking one or the other? Because nearly every gen there's something that bottlenecks something, this gen it was the CPU, last gen it was the GPU, before that was the VRAM i think etc.
9900K at the same clocks (9700K doesn't have HT/SMT). Those parts are clocked in the high 4GHz, so they have a 50% advantage because of that.
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I mean there is always the possibility that I am just completely wrong, but I think it is too late now anyways. Sony and Microsoft are probably very deep into finalizing their console right now and can't do any drastic changes to it before release in 2020. Maybe the amount of RAM, core clocks or cooling.
If anything the Stadia has probably much more influence on Xbox Xcloud and PS Now. I guess Sony and Microsoft are thinking about getting access to their streaming services to as many devices as possible. Something that comes natural to google considering how huge they are. They are everywhere.
Also those data centers can always be upgraded much faster than Sony/MS could release a new console. I bet google will upgrade them constantly and offer better premium packages for users, because I can tell them right now 10.7Tflops is not going to cut it for 4k60fpsHDR in demanding games let alone the 8K they are talking about.
But I guess around 10.7 Tflops is where I would expect the next gen consoles to land anyways. It would not be unreasonably to expect either one of them to be 12TFLOPs at $499.
Well if google wants to they can always go higher. It is much easier for them. They can always buy the best hardware and put it into those server centers. They are only limited by what technology is available at the time and the users internet connection. I have no idea what would be needed for 8k HDR 60fps but I bet it is a very beefy connection. Google fiber can help u with that then ;)
Being close enough to that beefy CPU is good enough for me, next gen will have a lot in store for us physics wise!
Yep lol, really expect this level of destruction capable on a good zen 2 CPU.
Aren't PC's currently struggling on that though?
Of course. (Doesn't mean they are going to do that and sacrifice the performance for it)
Is hairworks much better than AMDs Tress FX Hair? I used that in Tomb Raider 2013 on a 3Tflop GPU and it was just fine. Wasn't that big of a performance tax iirc.
depends on what application and how well it is optimized. Zen is really good and Valhalla (what I expect to be in consoles) is going to be even better.
Also there is a very high chance of Sony/MS going with a 8c/16t CPU for the next gen console (maybe clocked a bit lower) and the 9700K is just an 8c CPU without HT if I remember correctly?
If a game is really well optimized then the AMD CPU might even offer better results.
Thanks. Looks like if this picks up then even Sony and MS may jump on it by offering streaming as an alternative to dedicated HW for mid-gen upgrade or even the next next gen.
Not to derail the thread but I feel like gaming is perhaps the only medium that, as it moves forward, has no respect for the idea of archiving and preservation beyond the scope of glimpsing them their previews, reviews, playthroughs and retrospectives for average consumers. With streaming, this will only accelerate.
sure, but you're also totally losing control of what you purchase in the sense that you can't keep a disc or a downloaded game and sell a system if you want to. If a Stadia full price game costs 60$ just lke a PS5/Scarlett one it can't be good for google.
some dev needs to make their game look like cross-gen Battlefield 4 (which still looks good) and milk the crap out of this physics&Destruction system.
no, not battlefield, too many players and it's multiplayer. But destruction like that in a Red Faction style SP game? hell ya
Nowhere near this but did you see the Harry Potter gameplay?
What are you talking about? Battlefield 1 at least can first of all be played offline (not behind an online wall) and has SP content !
+ I said some dev should make it look like BF. Doesn't mean it needs to be or be like BF ;)
There is no consensus. Honestly, I'm not impressed by Stadia's specs. It's good for what they want to do now and if they can scale with multi gpus that's interesting because there are very real limitations on that in the desktop space.
My personal expectation from Anaconda:
12+ TF Navi GPU
Zen 2 CPU
1 TB NVME SSD Drive
16GB+ GDDR6 + 4-8GB DDR4 (I want OS hypervisor running on DDR4)
$500
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