This is assuming 3rd parties would have the exact same lineup in that scenario.Okay, i see where are you getting at, but let's take a look at the titles that are releasing this holiday (or already released) to see what could be a possible Switch lineup, assuming they had read the market correctly. I will start from week 43 (late octomber) and i will be listing the new (significant in terms of brandname or sales so more than 30-40k) entries
Week 43 (Oct 23-29)
[NSW] Super Mario Odyssey (nothing to add here)
[PS4] Ark: Survival Evolved (first potential SW game)
[3DS] Shin Megami Tensei: Strange Journey Redux (Atlus is well known for supporting older systems despite the release of it's successor but let's put this in the list also)
[PS4] Assassin's Creed: Origins (you said unless it was a major western focused or AAA project so we are leaving this out)
[PS4] Taiko no Tatsujin: Drum Session! (We know a Switch game is coming since it was announced before this PS4 game. Not sure what happened here but i will put it in the list)
Week 44 (Oct 30-Nov 05)
[PS4] Call of Duty: WWII (you said unless it was a major western focused or AAA project so we are leaving this out)
[PS4] .hack//G.U. Last Recode (released on SW)
[3DS] Style Savvy: Styling Star (i don't think i should include first party games, since if i understood correctly your post isn't referring to Nintendo which is full supporting Switch)
Week 45 (Nov 6-Nov 12)
[PS4] Need for Speed: Payback (you said unless it was a major western focused or AAA project so we are leaving this out)
[PS4/SW] Sonic Forces (SW version exists)
[PS4/PSV] Occultic;Nine (SW version is coming but i will put it in the list)
Week 46 (Nov 13-Nov 19)
[3DS] Pokemon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon (what i said about Style Savvy)
[PS4] Star Wars: Battlefront II (you said unless it was a major western focused or AAA project so we are leaving this out)
[PS4/WIIU/SW] Dragon Quest X: 5000-nen no Harukanaru Kokyou e Online (release on SW)
Week 47 (Nov 20-Nov 26)
[PS4] Hatsune Miku: Project Diva Future Tone DX (potential SW game)
[3DS] Apollo Justice: Ace Attorney (potential SW game)
Week 48 (Nov 27-Dec 3)
[NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 (Switch game)
[3DS] Kirby Battle Royale (first party)
[PS4/SW] Nobunaga's Ambition (released on SW)
[3DS] Attack on Titan 2: Future Coordinates (potential SW game)
[PS4] Little Witch Academia (potential SW game)
[NSW] Resident Evil: Revelations Collection (Switch game)
Week 49 (Dec 4-Dec 10)
[PS4] Yakuza: Kiwami 2 (i don't think you expected this on SW)
[PS4] Earth Defense Force 5 (or this since a EDF game never appeared on any Nintendo system)
[PS4] Kamen Rider: Climax Fighters (potential SW game)
[PS4] Dead Rising 4 (potential SW game)
[NSW] Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso (SW game)
[PS4] Nioh: Complete Edition (some deal with Sony probably makes this a console exclusive)
So we have 28 titles. 4 games from third parties also appeared on Switch (not counting first party). 10 out of these could have a Switch version and we are talking about games that sold at best 30k. The truth is that in the period Oct-Dec, third parties didn't released any significant games, so the support was shallow, not only for SW but for any other platform. Seriously the only game that could qualify after reading your post is YW Busters 2 which i can agree. There is also Atelier but this is coming to SW as well.
So the problem with Nintendo games and third party games is certainly more that most of their games are too different from most third party ones and so as the result don't appeal to people that could buy most third party games. The "problem" is not that Nintendo games compete too much with third party ones it is actually that they don't enough.
Please don't break years of convenient narrativeThere is no such thing as games on one platform that prevent other games to sell well. A big seller on the other hand helps of course to sell consoles which will lead to all other games to sell much more. Also these big sellers will attract people that like this kind of games and will help similar games to sell well.
Many of DS and 3DS small/medium/big sellers have nothing in common with Nintendo's output.There is no such thing as games on one platform that prevent other games to sell well. A big seller on the other hand helps of course to sell consoles which will lead to all other games to sell much more. Also these big sellers will attract people that like this kind of games and will help similar games to sell well.
So the problem with Nintendo games and third party games is certainly more that most of their games are too different from most third party ones and so as the result don't appeal to people that could buy most third party games. The "problem" is not that Nintendo games compete too much with third party ones it is actually that they don't enough.
You say all this, yet nowhere you even consider the 3rd party games that are actually out there. It makes a whole lot of sense that third parties don't take up a large share of sales (although, they take up almost half of total sales as can be seen above) since there are few titles worth their salt on the system at all.
You dismiss XV2 as "good for a cheap port" and go on to claim that big games can't sell because of Odyssey. You supplement that with stories about the organisation of store shelf space, yet you present no well-contextualised numbers to prove your sweeping statement. I would like to see anything of substance here personally, since there's little here that convinces me of your point.
There is no such thing as games on one platform that prevent other games to sell well. A big seller on the other hand helps of course to sell consoles which will lead to all other games to sell much more. Also these big sellers will attract people that like this kind of games and will help similar games to sell well.
So the problem with Nintendo games and third party games is certainly more that most of their games are too different from most third party ones and so as the result don't appeal to people that could buy most third party games. The "problem" is not that Nintendo games compete too much with third party ones it is actually that they don't enough.
Outselling PS4 isn't exactly the bar of success.Not sure why people are down on Switch numbers? I mean its damn near on pace to outsell PS4 in its first year and a half...
Yeah, 2017 saw a lot of games of games that appeal more to core gamers and 2018 will have more casual titles. There's also stuff like Bayonetta that will help diversify Nintendo's content.Without getting too deep into the "Wii userbase bought no gamez" discussion, I think Nintendo made a conscious decision to focus on more traditional experiences with their initial first party software output and IMO has a userbase that is more receptive to 3rd party software.
[PS4] .hack//G.U. Last Recode (released on SW)
I assume this one's a typo?
Forgive my ignorance if I'm missing something, but I don't think there's a place on Earth where it is December 18th past noon right now? Did you mean december 17th?
Taiko works differently. They always release exclusively to one platform, and there's always one home console game and one portable game each 12 months. For some reason the series got a 1 year break between Mystery Adventure (3DS, June 2016) and Drum Session (PS4, October 2017), but it's been the (unset?) rule for years.Taiko Drum should have been on Switch this Fall/holiday and not PS4.
I mean, it's the mid tier pet project of their main large scale world development studio, on an existing engine along with being the best selling entry in the series yet. It may not be a blockbuster, but it's a modest success and a good library filler. So Xenos not dead by a longshotThey tried to save Xenoblade by taking the Fire Emblem Awakening route and it did not work.
May Xenoblade forever rest in peace.
They tried to save Xenoblade by taking the Fire Emblem Awakening route and it did not work.
May Xenoblade forever rest in peace.
There hasnt been that many questions regarding Switch support in the Q&A for Capcom. I could only find two, one being how Capcom would go forward based on the sales of USF2, and the other what Capcom expects from the Switch going forward (where they said they were very positive and was going to do more multiplatform developement). Hard to know how the investors are thinking about this. No one knew how the Switch would sell, so all of that is in hindsight, so i hope that the inverstors dont think that games can be developed "just like that", and that if you make a bet on something that doesnt turn out as planned, things like this takes time to adjust.No one is acting like they are going bankruptcy. People are just baffled at how unprepared software houses were, even those historically close to Nintendo. You would expect a company like Capcom would have been ready to support Switch from the get-go, Monster Hunter aside. Or Level-5. They basically wasted an entire year. That's why investors are not happy. They see the few third party games selling well, indie breaking records, Nintendo software exploding, hardware sales basically matching PS4 first year sales and what did they have? Ultra Street Fighter 2? Come on.
They tried to save Xenoblade by taking the Fire Emblem Awakening route and it did not work.
May Xenoblade forever rest in peace
/S
That really isn't the same thing. Awakening was Fire Emblem making itself more casual and adding a bunch of nostalgia, while Xenoblade 2 didn't really do any of that.They tried to save Xenoblade by taking the Fire Emblem Awakening route and it did not work.
May Xenoblade forever rest in peace.
"It's Nintendo's answer to Final Fantasy"Sometimes I think people think the Xenoblade IP is bigger then it actually is.
LmaoThey tried to save Xenoblade by taking the Fire Emblem Awakening route and it did not work.
May Xenoblade forever rest in peace.
Awakening made several changes to its gameplay and presentation that made it become succesful. It wasn't the "waifus" and "pandering" that made the game a success. If that was the reason, then Fates, which included a lot more of those, would have heavily outsold Awakening but... it didn't.They tried to save Xenoblade by taking the Fire Emblem Awakening route and it did not work.
May Xenoblade forever rest in peace.
Yes but I'm not sure that's totally deliberate: the Switch lacks a strong gameplay "gimmick"/innovation and as a result is a hard sale for casual gamers. They are clearly aiming at a more hardcore audience with the Switch imo... but that's actually certainly a good thing to please third party developers.Without getting too deep into the "Wii userbase bought no gamez" discussion, I think Nintendo made a conscious decision to focus on more traditional experiences with their initial first party software output and IMO has a userbase that is more receptive to 3rd party software.
Which one are you thinking of? Also having strong games like MH as exclusives on 3DS for a reason or another helped a lot to get these games that are quite different from their first party output. Also even if DS and 3DS sold much more units than the PSP and Vita those two still managed to have a lot of third party exclusives that just didn't match well with the usual image and genres of Nintendo games.Many of DS and 3DS small/medium/big sellers have nothing in common with Nintendo's output.
Sony has had Square Enix in the bag and especially FF and KH for a very long time. This helped them a lot to have JRPGs. Xbox of course not so much for cultural reasons probably.I think that line of thinking falls flat when you talk about Japan though. Sony has no significant IP in Japan and their portfolio has very little overlap with that of Japanese third parties.
JRPGs is an obvious genre where Sony has very little presence(Oreshika was the last one?) where Nintendo publishes several a year.
That really isn't the same thing. Awakening was Fire Emblem making itself more casual and adding a bunch of nostalgia, while Xenoblade 2 didn't really do any of that.
Not sure why people are down on Switch numbers? I mean its damn near on pace to outsell PS4 in its first 2 years...
Do you think this would be enough? I don't think so.
Also, virtually all relevant Japanese third party games have sold notably well overseas: Ultra Street Fighter II at 450k (a "smash hit"); Disgaea 5 Complete has already outsold the PS4 version; Super Bomberman R at 500k units at the end of April 2017; Dragon Ball XenoVerse 2 at 400k units worldwide. These are pretty good numbers considering the type of games they are. Would this push third parties to put some effort into their future Switch games? Hard to tell.
How can there be consistent third party Japanese sales oversea if... There aren't consistent Japanese releases with potential oversea sales?
So this is going to sound very weird given how the much the Switch and PC differ in Japan, but I'd actually look at the way Japanese PC support evolved for how that might actually work.We have been seeing notable sales of Japanese games overseas on a consistent basis though. Bomberman R, Disgaea 5C, Puyo Tetris, USF2, DBVX2 all being sound examples of that. If anything 3rd party sales overseas should be more encouraging than what they've seen domestically so far for Japanese publishers.
I'd expect a mix of sticking with PS4 and/or Switch games with the most ambitious publishers making cross-gen titles.It will be interesting to see how japanese publishers will behave when PS5 arrives around then (2019-2020). Stick to PS4? Stick to PS4 and Switch? Go full Switch support or PS4/PS5 like the first PS4 years (with PSV and PS3)?
simplification of game mechanics, casual mode, attractive art style, and daytime commercials on childrens' networks?They tried to save Xenoblade by taking the Fire Emblem Awakening route and it did not work.
May Xenoblade forever rest in peace.
a bigger budget would be nice, but Takahashi needs to learn that complexity isnt always good first. a AAA game that's as complex as Xenoblade 2 while being as poorly explain isnt going to improve anything other than being a money sinkI just hope that MS learns a few lessons about simplification, they made the right step at mapping arts and blades to buttons but they added a bunch of other stuff on top of that that certainly made newcomers confused. The whole XC battle system and open world could be better implemented in a sequel and considering how better XC2 is selling compared to previous entries, I'm praying that Nintendo gives the studio more time and a bigger budget to produce it.
Not really no. Mechanics wise FEA is a lot more casual and friendly to newcomers. They even added a non-permadeath mode. XB2 is as hardcore as it can get and the UI menu is enough to scare people off.They tried to save Xenoblade by taking the Fire Emblem Awakening route and it did not work.
May Xenoblade forever rest in peace.
No DQ is entirely outsourced, up through DQVIII they had Horii's planning team (Armor Project) working with an external developer. Starting with DQIX it became a more collaborative dev effort with both internal SE staff and a contract developer both working on the game together.I thought DQ11 was largely done in house? Especially compare to previous DQ games which were entirely outsourced.
The thing is when you started DQVIII, you get a big L5 logo, indicating their involvement with the game. You don't have an Orca logo at the start of DQXI. I think the degree of Orca's involvement is more inline with regular outsource work, instead of the cases in previous of dq games where basically everything except planning is handled by outsource studio. DQX and DQXI are the only DQ games on wikipedia that have SE as the sole developer. Chunsoft, Heartbeat and L5 were listed as developer for DQI-IX.No DQ is entirely outsourced, up through DQVIII they had Horii's planning team (Armor Project) working with an external developer. Starting with DQIX it became a more collaborative dev effort with both internal SE staff and a contract developer both working on the game together.
Developers
DQ: Chunsoft
DQII: Chunsoft
DQIII: Chunsoft
DQIV: Chunsoft
DQV: Chunsoft
DQVI: Heartbeat
DQVII: Heartbeat, ArtePiazza
DQVIII: Level 5
DQIX: Square Enix, Level 5
DQX: Square Enix, Orca
DQXI: Square Enix, Orca (PS4), Toylogic (3DS)
Orca did major production and design work on DQX at least, yet they didn't have a splash logo on that game either. Don't just go by wikipedia.The thing is when you started DQVIII, you get a big L5 logo, indicating their involvement with the game. You don't have an Orca logo at the start of DQXI. I think the degree of Orca's involvement is more inline with regular outsource work, instead of the cases in previous of dq games where basically everything except planning is handled by outsource studio. DQX and DQXI are the only DQ games on wikipedia that have SE as the sole developer. Chunsoft, Heartbeat and L5 were listed as developer for DQI-IX.
I remember Horii once said he was impressed by L5's graphic technology in Dark Cloud (or some other early PS2 game) and he wanted them to use that technology in DQVIII. The head of L5 is a big DQ fan so it worked like a dream.Tbh the list mostly makes me curious as to when and why exactly they moved on from Chunsoft and then Heartbeat and then Level 5.
3 PS4 games got on the Nintendo bestsellers, impressive.Rakuten Books Sales Ranking Week 50, 2017 (Dic 11 - Dic 17)
01./01. (001./001.) [NSW] Super Mario Odyssey <ACT> (Nintendo)
02./00. (004./000.) [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters 2: Magnum <RPG> (Level 5)
03./00. (005./000.) [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters 2: Sword <RPG> (Level 5)
04./02. (007./004.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
05./03. (008./006.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Moon <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
06./04. (011./010.) [NSW] Splatoon 2 <ACT> (Nintendo)
07./05. (012./011.) [3DS] Kirby Battle Royale <ETC> (Nintendo)
08./07. (013./014.) [NSW] Mario Kart 8 Deluxe <RCE> (Nintendo)
09./00. (014./000.) [3DS] Yo-kai Watch Busters 2: Sword / Magnum Set <RPG> (Level 5)
10./08. (019./016.) [3DS] Animal Crossing: New Leaf - Welcome amiibo <ETC> (Nintendo)
11./11. (021./024.) [3DS] Pokémon Ultra Sun / Ultra Moon Dual Pack <RPG> (Pokémon Co.)
12./14. (024./036.) [NSW] The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild <ADV> (Nintendo)
13./13. (025./031.) [NSW] Sumikko Gurashi: Sumikko Park e Youkoso <ETC> (Nippon Columbia)
14./06. (026./012.) [PS4] Earth Defense Force 5 <ACT> (D3 Publisher)
15./09. (039./018.) [PS4] Yakuza: Kiwami 2 <ADV> (Sega)
16./15. (043./050.) [NSW] 1-2-Switch <ETC> (Nintendo)
17./18. (044./070.) [NSW] Pokkén Tournament DX <FTG> (Pokémon Co.)
18./10. (049./023.) [NSW] Xenoblade Chronicles 2 <RPG> (Nintendo)
19./17. (052./065.) [NSW] Arms <FTG> (Nintendo)
20./00. (057./000.) [PS4] Resident Evil 7: biohazard - Gold Edition (Grotesque Ver.) <ADV> (Capcom)
Chunsoft wanted to make their own games but maintained a good relationship with Enix leading to the Torneko Mystery Dungeon games. Heartbeat went bankrupt and was revived as Genuis Sonority with capital from Nintendo. Level 5's reasoning for departure isn't known but DQIX's continually delayed and once restarted development history probably didn't help. DQIX was also the start of SE development staff being involved during production which might've been problematic for a company like Level 5 and maybe soured them after they did DQVIII alone.Tbh the list mostly makes me curious as to when and why exactly they moved on from Chunsoft and then Heartbeat and then Level 5.
So this is going to sound very weird given how the much the Switch and PC differ in Japan, but I'd actually look at the way Japanese PC support evolved for how that might actually work.
...
I'd expect a mix of sticking with PS4 and/or Switch games with the most ambitious publishers making cross-gen titles.
Japanese publishers have tended to be nothing if not consistently glacial.
So this is going to sound very weird given how the much the Switch and PC differ in Japan, but I'd actually look at the way Japanese PC support evolved for how that might actually work.
At first, there were a few smaller titles that sold well, and that convinced a couple of publishers to try one or two larger games. When those sold, they tried a couple of games again to see if it was just a fluke, and then one or two other publishers decided to put out test titles as well. Around three years into this process, you started seeing uneven, but somewhat consistent support of the platform, and then it took another 3-4 years past that to get us to the present situation, where most publishers will support the platform, but there are still some notable absences like Sega or the lumpy output of Square Enix, along with the kind of questionable port quality still coming out of a publisher like Koei Tecmo.
Mind, part of the issue here is that the Switch isn't necessarily going to be around for seven years, but if publishers are generally sold on the system by the end of this generation, the odds of them showing up in force for the Switch 2 only 12 to 18 months in improves quite a bit, especially since the hardware should be pretty close to whatever else is out at the time.
We'd currently be in the "sea of test games" phase, and then entering the "let's try a handful of more notable ports" phase (I expect we'll see these throughout 2018). After that, they'll want to see try handful of more notable ports again to make sure it wasn't just a fluke, which should happen in like... early-mid 2019, and if that works out, we might see a sizable boost in output.
This is of course assuming that Japanese publishers maintain their continual very conservative stance on basically everything they do. Square Enix is a more ambitious company compared to most, and is trying a lot quicker than you might otherwise expect of a Japanese publisher.
I'd expect a mix of sticking with PS4 and/or Switch games with the most ambitious publishers making cross-gen titles.
Japanese publishers have tended to be nothing if not consistently glacial.