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Chris1964

Chris1964

SalesEra Genius
Member
Oct 25, 2017
11,155
Nintendo started restocking Mario bundle again. Whatever they have produced will be shipped at next 2 weeks.
 

funtastrophe

Member
Oct 25, 2017
255
Oh my gods. The 3DS was more of a beast that I thought in million sellers, and I can imagine the DS was probably event more. o_o
I find it interesting. I would love to get a complete version with the (probably) missing million sellers. :O

I didn't include the DS because I wanted the other systems to feel that they're doing well.

(I'll throw it in eventually, but it'd take longer than the others due to more relevant entries)


There's going to be a massive drop from 3DS to SW from the momentary absence of MH, YW decline and DQ going multiplatform.
BTW what software did you use for the graph? R?

I kind of have been assuming that it'll be fairly in line with Wii with not quite as strong a start but a longer tail. No early megahits from an expanded casual audience but a more persistent curve from the LTTP devs that took a little bit extra to kick things into gear. So maybe it stays below the Wii curve until week two hundred something and then crosses over but doesn't really get close to 3DS's EOL. Obviously, I'm being very bullish here.

As for the source: Since most of the data was in a spreadsheet, I opted out of my usual preferred tactic of perl/ruby + mysql/sqlite and did all my wrangling and graphing in LibreOffice. The directory that image is linked from has my workbook in case I drop my laptop down a furnace hole.


edit: With the caveat that it'll likely temporarily cross over with Wii's total, launch-aligned, in a few weeks until Wii has its ridiculous first month and a half of '08.
 
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Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
This year, Week 51 will be particularly big because it ends with Christmas Eve. Depending on the results of tomorow it can be a 300K+ week or a 400k+ one.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,969
IDK. I wasn't in MC at Switch launch. I think Chris was saying to expect closer to 300k than 400k this next reported week? I'd be really happy with close to 400k, content with ~300k.

And it'd be next Wednesday we'd see the best week right?
 

Sphinx

Member
Nov 29, 2017
2,376
I haven't followed the MC/famitsu numbers every week but from what I recall there hasn't been a single week in which Switch hardware didn't disappoint.

If numbers are supposed to be above 300k, I'd bet it will be 260k. That has happened every "big week" for switch that I can remember.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,969
The thing is I think it is more important to Nintendo to make Switch do better than 3DS in the west than it is to them to compete with 3DS in Japan. I think they want less lopsided towards Japan sales numbers, so Japan isn't getting the supply it should, in a better situation, have.
 

Hieroph

Member
Oct 28, 2017
8,995
The support litterall came down to ease of porting DS titles to 3DS and the similarites between the two.

If the switch was a 4DS you'd see 3DS ports well into after it's successor had released.

I guess BC also helped. You can play all of Etrian Odyssey on 3DS, even before the Untold versions. Makes the transition easier. Atlus fans tend to stick around late into the gen and their games still do alright at that point, but if the new system is BC, you can buy the late gen release with the new hardware.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
The thing is I think it is more important to Nintendo to make Switch do better than 3DS in the west than it is to them to compete with 3DS in Japan. I think they want less lopsided towards Japan sales numbers, so Japan isn't getting the supply it should, in a better situation, have.

Yeah they seemingly already have Japan in the bag, so they now feel confident that they can put off some shipments from coming there to bring more to the west. I guess if those shipments continue to sell well that's not the worst idea.

Just sucks for Japanese people who are still looking for a Switch.
 

djinnEXE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
449
I finally made it to the last page
Man were these last 10 pages filled with many bad hot takes. Glad it's seemingly calmed down a bit.

Can't wait for tomorrow. New numbers is always exciting. Switch might be up by a lot (finally) and software as well.

I'm just hoping that come january (post holidays) the numbers don't drop way to low.
 

djinnEXE

Member
Oct 25, 2017
449
MC threads have been getting bigger. Weekly threads now outdo the monthly NPD threads in post count ever since the format changed. And with Nintendo doing better it's also much more interesting to follow.
The "dark" days are behind us.
 

MoonFrog

Member
Oct 25, 2017
3,969
Yeah they seemingly already have Japan in the bag, so they now feel confident that they can put off some shipments from coming there to bring more to the west. I guess if those shipments continue to sell well that's not the worst idea.

Just sucks for Japanese people who are still looking for a Switch.
Nintendo dug itself into this position over time, starting with the knee-jerk reaction to the failure of the N64 in Japan, where instead of building on SNES like numbers in America and putting out a console that played to N64's strengths, they put out the GCN, scrapped online plans, sold Rare, tried to win exclusivity with Capcom, etc. This just landed them with a weaker position abroad and still as also-rans in Japan and called for them to try and do something different, hence the Wii. It was successful at home and abroad, but also the sort of console Japan needed in the face of the HD twins and HD development. The thing is that the Wii stagnated in its last years and the Wii U was a muddle-headed successor that failed in all markets, leaving Nintendo with just its portable hardware as a success. Portable hardware that also was lopsidedly relevant in Japan by that point.

Basically Nintendo "won" back Japan from Sony, but it puts them in a tough spot as the Japanese market is shrunken and large Japanese companies are variously divested from it as "chasing the west" increasingly means simultaneously ignoring Japanese preferences and as the mobile scene exploded in Japan attracting what efforts were intended to make money off Japan.

So Nintendo needs to both a) try and maintain (or expand) its Japanese market and b) expand again outside of that market and the two feed into eachother. Namely, getting the support to engage Japan increasingly means providing for Switch/PS4 multiplatform but also making the Switch and Japanese games on the Switch a success abroad. So in a sense b comes before a. But a also comes before b in the sense that Switch's most likely support is from Japanese companies and being a hot product in Japan is going to be a distinguishing feature to make it relevant to those companies, as with the DS and 3DS.

They have the hardware and they're off to a good start in hardware sales and at least in the west the installed base seems quite engaged wrt things like indies. They need to build on this success and get success for Japanese 3rd party software to happen both abroad and at home.

...

And expanding relevance in the west also encourages a) indie support and possibly b) western third party support to supplement or possibly supplant what you'd expect they could get out of Japan too, which is another way out of this but is more banking on unknown appeal imo.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
MC threads have been getting bigger. Weekly threads now outdo the monthly NPD threads in post count ever since the format changed. And with Nintendo doing better it's also much more interesting to follow.
The "dark" days are behind us.
The quality of discussion hasn't increased I can assure you that. This is coming from someone that longed for more popular media create threads during the dark ages. All shits about to break loose once MHW releases. I'm thinking of avoiding these threads until it blows over because it's going to get silly regardless of what happens.
 

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Nintendo dug itself into this position over time, starting with the knee-jerk reaction to the failure of the N64 in Japan, where instead of building on SNES like numbers in America and putting out a console that played to N64's strengths, they put out the GCN, scrapped online plans, sold Rare, tried to win exclusivity with Capcom, etc. This just landed them with a weaker position abroad and still as also-rans in Japan and called for them to try and do something different, hence the Wii. It was successful at home and abroad, but also the sort of console Japan needed in the face of the HD twins and HD development. The thing is that the Wii stagnated in its last years and the Wii U was a muddle-headed successor that failed in all markets, leaving Nintendo with just its portable hardware as a success. Portable hardware that also was lopsidedly relevant in Japan by that point.

Basically Nintendo "won" back Japan from Sony, but it puts them in a tough spot as the Japanese market is shrunken and large Japanese companies are variously divested from it as "chasing the west" increasingly means simultaneously ignoring Japanese preferences and as the mobile scene exploded in Japan attracting what efforts were intended to make money off Japan.

So Nintendo needs to both a) try and maintain (or expand) its Japanese market and b) expand again outside of that market and the two feed into eachother. Namely, getting the support to engage Japan increasingly means providing for Switch/PS4 multiplatform but also making the Switch and Japanese games on the Switch a success abroad. So in a sense b comes before a. But a also comes before b in the sense that Switch's most likely support is from Japanese companies and being a hot product in Japan is going to be a distinguishing feature to make it relevant to those companies, as with the DS and 3DS.

They have the hardware and they're off to a good start in hardware sales and at least in the west the installed base seems quite engaged wrt things like indies. They need to build on this success and get success for Japanese 3rd party software to happen both abroad and at home.

...

And expanding relevance in the west also encourages a) indie support and possibly b) western third party support to supplement or possibly supplant what you'd expect they could get out of Japan too, which is another way out of this but is more banking on unknown appeal imo.

That's a pretty succinct explanation, yeah. I agree with all of that. It's an interesting position they're in, and I think the level of global success the Switch has achieved this year is basically the best case scenario for the successful execution of that strategy.

Of course this means that the support from both the West and Japan will be somewhat slow to start but of course we already knew that!
 

Adventureracing

The Fallen
Nov 7, 2017
8,026
The quality of discussion hasn't increased I can assure you that. This is coming from someone that longed for more popular media create threads during the dark ages. All shits about to break loose once MHW releases. I'm thinking of avoiding these threads until it blows over because it's going to get silly regardless of what happens.

I don't see why it would be any worse. We already have endless arguments in these threads about MHW at least this way there will be some actual sales numbers to throw into the mix. No doubt things will get heated but they do already.
 

Principate

Member
Oct 31, 2017
11,186
I don't see why it would be any worse. We already have endless arguments in these threads about MHW at least this way there will be some actual sales numbers to throw into the mix. No doubt things will get heated but they do already.
Oh it can always get worse it always seems too and I thought the Vita and 3DS discussion on this was annoying way back when.
 
Oct 27, 2017
8,576
Why does specifcally Monster Hunter get so much focus in these threads i wonder? ,heck i swear there are more people arguing about the franchise than they are playing the games on this forum XD
 

Dunban

Member
Oct 28, 2017
1,051
Switch has finally sold to the core Wii U audience of ~3 million and, as many predicted, fallen off precipitously. Capcom vindicated, Nintendo to go third party and develop exclusively for the Xbox One X confirmed.

Maybe we'll finally get a non-disappointing Switch hw week.
 
Oct 25, 2017
15,171
Blessed Kimishima of Great Fortune, what say you, what do you think the results will be.

l0NwQ9slBLoDkuveM.gif


"Over 200,000 units at least."

Thank you blessed Kimishima.
 
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