• Light/Dark
  • Ever wanted an RSS feed of all your favorite gaming news sites? Go check out our new Gaming Headlines feed! Read more about it here.
  • We have made minor adjustments to how the search bar works on ResetEra. You can read about the changes here.

December 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 9th

Elandyll

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,819
spekkeh said:
[NSW] 1750k
[PS4] 900k
[XB1] 720k

I know there's not a lick of chance of this happening, but beforehand I said that PS4 would win November but Switch was set to sell the most during the whole Holiday period. Then PS4's November had me shook and now I need to do some crazy doctoring to stay consistent.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Sooooo...
What you're saying is that you reaaaaallly don't want to win the December predictions? ;)

Let's just put it this way...
The Switch having done around 800k+ and the PS4 around 1.6m+ in November, I don't see a scenario where the Switch outsells it by more than 1m in December.

So.... Just to help you prepare mentally, Yes, the PS4 has probably "won" the Holiday period.
 
Abdiel

Abdiel

Member
Oct 28, 2017
854
Benji said:
I'm betting Abdiel has PS4 on top as a guess
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Hey Benji,

Actually - I'm more in line with you. I haven't posted as much just because I've actually been seeing someone, so that's taken me away from the forum more, perish the thought, haha. Sorry guys!

But as to this last month... even with the tail end of November, Cyber Monday didn't really have a ton of stock readily available. Our warehouses weren't exactly overflowing, same as most of the other vendors. Seems like only a select few had plenty.

Regardless, at this time, the Switch has been a powerful force all through December, moving aggressive stock. Much less about price and much more about the sheer presence. The PS4 has been a good mover at the discounted price, it retains strong brand presence and the mainstream games continue to do really well on it, but it hasn't had that same potency as the Switch during this major season.

The XB1 has done decently as well this month, due to how well it is has been discounted, but it doesn't have the advantage of that same flush of presales on the XB1X to push it forward.
 

Deleted member 24550

Ac
Banned
Oct 29, 2017
2,398
Elandyll said:
Sooooo...
What you're saying is that you reaaaaallly don't want to win the December predictions? ;)

Let's just put it this way...
The Switch having done around 800k+ and the PS4 around 1.6m+ in November, I don't see a scenario where the Switch outsells it by more than 1m in December.

So.... Just to help you prepare mentally, Yes, the PS4 has probably "won" the Holiday period.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
I hope you like crow!!!

edit: damn that's the second time someone got banned for replying to me in two days. For the record I was being facetious here.
 
Last edited:
Benji

Benji

Self Requested Ban
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
8,114
Abdiel said:
Hey Benji,

Actually - I'm more in line with you. I haven't posted as much just because I've actually been seeing someone, so that's taken me away from the forum more, perish the thought, haha. Sorry guys!

But as to this last month... even with the tail end of November, Cyber Monday didn't really have a ton of stock readily available. Our warehouses weren't exactly overflowing, same as most of the other vendors. Seems like only a select few had plenty.

Regardless, at this time, the Switch has been a powerful force all through December, moving aggressive stock. Much less about price and much more about the sheer presence. The PS4 has been a good mover at the discounted price, it retains strong brand presence and the mainstream games continue to do really well on it, but it hasn't had that same potency as the Switch during this major season.

The XB1 has done decently as well this month, due to how well it is has been discounted, but it doesn't have the advantage of that same flush of presales on the XB1X to push it forward.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Cheers Abdiel! Hope all is well with you and the Holidays weren't too brutal.

Interesting you are seeing Switch ahead as well as I thought there was a chance Best Buy may have skewed more towards PS4 due to the types of consumers.

Yeah that's pretty much all signs pointing firmly towards Switch then
 
Ryng™

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
ethomaz said:
Thank you guys.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

Oh my god. I just realized.

uvYFyrr.jpg
 

Pokémon

Member
Oct 27, 2017
11,681
So it looks like the Switch was well stocked in December, nice. Looks like they moved a lot of units. Gonna be another good month for the big 3.
 
Psrock1

Psrock1

Member
Oct 27, 2017
657
Based on the info we have now, it would take a miracle for the Switch not to win December. The wait is killing me.

[NSW] 1660K
[PS4] 1250K
[XB1] 1150K
 
Elandyll

Elandyll

Avenger
Oct 25, 2017
8,819
Abdiel said:
Hey Benji,

Actually - I'm more in line with you. I haven't posted as much just because I've actually been seeing someone, so that's taken me away from the forum more, perish the thought, haha. Sorry guys!

But as to this last month... even with the tail end of November, Cyber Monday didn't really have a ton of stock readily available. Our warehouses weren't exactly overflowing, same as most of the other vendors. Seems like only a select few had plenty.

Regardless, at this time, the Switch has been a powerful force all through December, moving aggressive stock. Much less about price and much more about the sheer presence. The PS4 has been a good mover at the discounted price, it retains strong brand presence and the mainstream games continue to do really well on it, but it hasn't had that same potency as the Switch during this major season.

The XB1 has done decently as well this month, due to how well it is has been discounted, but it doesn't have the advantage of that same flush of presales on the XB1X to push it forward.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Thanks for the info Abdiel, and happy to hear you are doing well.

Now, without going into specifics, if you had to put a qualifier between the Switch and its closest competition (I'm gonna guess the PS4, but maybe not), would you say it's done

"Overwhelmingly" better

"Quite a lot" better

Or

"Just a bit" better

?

:)
 
gundamkyoukai

gundamkyoukai

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,135
I expect switch to be number 1 .
What i don't expect is some of the crazy numbers some people have here lol.
 
KillerMan91

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,355
[NSW] 1630k
[PS4] 1450k
[XB1] 1150k

Switch has burned me time and time again (overestimated it almost every month) but with both Benji and Abdiel indicating it being number one maybe this month is the time to get it right.
 
Skittzo

Skittzo

Member
Oct 25, 2017
41,037
Switch needs ~1650k to reach 5M for the year, which was Mat Piscatella's prediction. In the interest of having him be correct that's what I'm shooting for.

Otherwise I have no idea how high it might be... we know Japanese stock for the past few weeks was fairly underwhelming so it's possible Nintendo shipped a lot more to the US than we think.
 
N.Domixis

N.Domixis

Banned
Oct 28, 2017
9,208
Why is anyone questioning a switch win? Th moment Sony didn't announce 200. It was a done deal.
 
Mr_F_Snowman

Mr_F_Snowman

Member
Oct 27, 2017
3,881
Edited my prediction after the recent info - sounds like good numbers all around again especially for Sony and Nintendo. Any hint on 3DS/2DS performance and whether it has been able to keep its pace of being up year over year in the US? Will be interesting to see how it performs and how long people in the know like Benji think it might stick around for given the minimal amount of software support its going to receive going forward - any thoughts?
 
KillerMan91

KillerMan91

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,355
Mr_F_Snowman said:
Edited my prediction after the recent info - sounds like good numbers all around again especially for Sony and Nintendo. Any hint on 3DS/2DS performance and whether it has been able to keep its pace of being up year over year in the US? Will be interesting to see how it performs and how long people in the know like Benji think it might stick around for given the minimal amount of software support its going to receive going forward - any thoughts?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

By all accounts this should be last hurrah for 3DS. In Japan it was massively down during this holiday season compared to last year and will most likely die next year. In west there were pretty big stock issues last year during holiday season with Pokemon Sun/moon craze so maybe western sales will compare more favorable to last year but I can't really see it living past next year in west either with no big software support.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
Frankfurter said:
I just don't see PS4 and XB1 decreasing MoM with December even being a 5 week month as opposed to 4 in November.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
PS4 and XB1 had very strong sales in November (in fact PS4 recorded the best monthly sales in the entire generation) due to specific circumstances (very good deals under the $200 barrier and XB1X launch) which aren't present in December or if they are they have a lessened effect.
I do believe that especially PS4 has a good chance to sell less in this December than November because its sales were especially high during Black Friday and lacked similarly compelling deals in December.
For XB1 the unknowns are how well XB1X will perform after the launch month (with its preorders behind it) and the general weakness experienced by the platform in 2017 which is probably why Microsoft decided to keep XB1S at $199 for the whole month of December.

In the current generation there were multiple instances of XB1 and PS4 selling in December just a bit more than what they did the previous month despite December covers a 5 weeks period while November just 4 weeks.
My suspect is that many prefer to anticipate the purchase of a console to the Black Friday week instead to wait for December because they know that the very good BF deals are unlikely to be matched in December which in turn lessen the sales in December.

gcwy said:
Only way I see Switch going from 700-800K in November to 1500K+, like some are predicting, is through a miracle. Are there any other reasons why its sales would skyrocket in December other than Nintendo's consoles almost always selling more in December?
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
Can't be a miracle if it already happened in the past for Nintendo consoles.

Switch deals during BF week were almost non-existent, the deal advertised by retailers was that the console was widely available.
Who wanted to gift a Switch for Christmas weren't pushed to buy it earlier by compelling deals.

By the look of it if the Switch shortages in the last few days are confirmed Nintendo seems to have sold most of the stocks allocated for the Holidays in US at full price or near full price (first-party software too hold up in price).
 
Last edited:
DomsPlaying

DomsPlaying

Member
Oct 25, 2017
285
NJ & NYC
[NSW] 1550K
[PS4] 1350K
[XB1] 1120K

Just for fun, guesses on best-selling December games:

1. CoD: WWII
2. AC Origins
3. Star Wars Battlefront II

And ultimately the top-selling games of 2017 (Basically, unchanged from Nov.. Going out on a limb, I know.):

1. CoD: WWII
2. Destiny 2
3. NBA 2K18

Good luck all!
 

Damian Mahadevan

User banned for use of alt account
Banned
Nov 26, 2017
412
[NSW] 1800k
[PS4] 1200k
[XB1] 1200k

Its hard this month to figure out how well the Xbox did because it seems that Amazon didnt have much XB1S units this month and I dont see it ranking on Amazon. We'll see.
 

Celine

Member
Oct 26, 2017
5,030
Damian Mahadevan said:
Its hard this month to figure out how well the Xbox did because it seems that Amazon didnt have much XB1S units this month and I dont see it ranking on Amazon. We'll see.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...
XB1S bundle ($199) was in 30° position whereas XB1X was in 36° position on the Amazon chart for December 2017:
https://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/2017-12/videogames/ref=zg_bs_tab_t_bsar#2

#6 Switch Gray
#10 Switch Neon
#15 PS4 1TB Star Wars 2
#28 PS4 1TB
#30 Xbox One S 500GB Forza Horizon 3 Hot Wheels
#36 Xbox One X 1TB
#54 PS4 Pro 1TB


Mario Kart Wii was at 82° basically a decade after the game launch lol
 
Nightwing

Nightwing

Permanently banned for usage of an alt-account.
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
131
I'm highly doubt PS4 and X1 managed to reach 1m sales this month. After that crazy Nov deal there should have been significant drop in Dec.

Nintendo have consistent performance every holiday season, still I think switch would barely reach 1m this month.

[NSW] 1450
[PS4] 1380
[XB1] 980

Edit: welp changed my prediction
 
Last edited:
Vickton Farway

Vickton Farway

Banned
Dec 31, 2017
627
Virginia
[XB1} 1250K
[NSW] 1105K
[PS4] 890K

Pubg has done a number for Xbox interest in December across retailers, and since this NPD (oddly) includes Cyber Monday; I expect Nov trends to continue with the exception of the PS4. The PS4 sold out a lot of it's cheapest sku last month and no equavilent deals this month will hurt it's momentum.

Meanwhile I expect the end of November to he the end of the impulse buy part of the holidays and I see the Switch becoming a family gift in Dec.
 
Abdiel

Abdiel

Member
Oct 28, 2017
854
Elandyll said:
Thanks for the info Abdiel, and happy to hear you are doing well.

Now, without going into specifics, if you had to put a qualifier between the Switch and its closest competition (I'm gonna guess the PS4, but maybe not), would you say it's done

"Overwhelmingly" better

"Quite a lot" better

Or

"Just a bit" better

?

:)
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I am indeed doing well. I survived the holidays with all of my limbs intact.

As to your question/searching -

I would say that the Switch did Solidly Better, which is not in any of your phrasing, but more accurate than what you had. In my districts, it isn't as though it completely eclipsed the PS4 and now all other metrics would fall before that which is our new Nintendo overlord (hah!) - it's just been a very impressive month for them, while the PS4 has done a decent job of playing catch up after a somewhat late start in December when it went back up to normal price and then was discounted again, even if not all the way back down to the crazy-place of what it was for Black Friday week.

The XB1 has continued to sell, and not poorly this month, but I just am not seeing anything to suggest it competing on the same level as the Switch in any respect, and the PS4 still seems to come out ahead for the month despite that early drop off.

Vickton Farway said:
[XB1} 1250K
[NSW] 1105K
[PS4] 890K

Pubg has done a number for Xbox interest in December across retailers, and since this NPD (oddly) includes Cyber Monday; I expect Nov trends to continue with the exception of the PS4. The PS4 sold out a lot of it's cheapest sku last month and no equavilent deals this month will hurt it's momentum.

Meanwhile I expect the end of November to he the end of the impulse buy part of the holidays and I see the Switch becoming a family gift in Dec.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

See, this post made me want to comment. PUBG has been an interesting animal to watch, because it seems to be selling pretty well, all things considered. But I'm not seeing anything under the category of 'console seller' status for it, it is a lot of existing owners trying out something new for their system, deciding to pick up "physical copies". And considering the digital spectrum is going to be even higher for that game, there's just nothing backing the game itself causing any major push of new hardware sales from my metrics here. Maybe someone else has seen different in other stores.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.