Feels like 199 moved the sales potential of PS4 to November instead of December.
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December 2017 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, January 9th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Feels like 199 moved the sales potential of PS4 to November instead of December.
It will be interesting to see how November+December combine. November 2017 was over December 2016, but how does the sum compare? There's something to say for the idea that christmas buyers would take advantage of this insane deal to buy their presents for the lowest price. This may also have influenced XB1, btw, as it was not expected that XB1 would remain at its low price for the whole of December. If the total sales of November+December is way up YoY, then it seems that the deal did have a lot of moving power beyond shifting christmas gift buyers into November (I definitely expect this to be the case).
I think the PS4 would have continued to sell gangbuster if Sony had kept the $249 deal on the BF2 sku for most/ all of the month, and perhaps did a few days back at $199 on the base unit right before Xmas.
Hard to fault them for trying to get some revenue when consoles would normally sell well anyway though, we'll have to see just how far appart they all are if/ when we get some numbers.
IMO PS4 November + December 2017 is going to be up compared to 2016 (I expect to be up of about 200K-300K).
Yeah, I was thinking something along those lines as well, indicating imo that there was a decent amount of extra buyers compared to previous year.
Same here.
When I changed my numbers, I still had PS4 in 2nd but I made it closer with XBO. I changed numbers for both.
~100K up YOY, imo ( Nov+Dec)
I don't think PS4 sold much better than 1.2 million this December....
That first Greenberg tweet causing salesERA to collectively and desperately attempt to translate his words into something meaningful is really funny to read lol. Second best thing to happen on ERA so far this year.
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Really happy that all three did well. When was the last time three consoles sold more than 1 million in a single month? I also wonder how much overall hardware sales increased YoY.
By the way, thanks heaps to Benji and Abdiel for voluntarily providing reliable information to the community, even in the face of rude comments, and to MatPiscatella for the effort he puts in to both the NPD report threads and the community in general. Without you guys there wouldn't be much left of this community and I/we really appreciate all that you do :)
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Really happy that all three did well. When was the last time three consoles sold more than 1 million in a single month? I also wonder how much overall hardware sales increased YoY.
By the way, thanks heaps to Benji and Abdiel for voluntarily providing reliable information to the community, even in the face of rude comments, and to MatPiscatella for the effort he puts in to both the NPD report threads and the community in general. Without you guys there wouldn't be much left of this community and I/we really appreciate all that you do :)
Guess we will just have to reset the clock after the hour is over.
I mean I predicted PS4 ahead of Xbox and will gladly eat crow about that; xb1 impressed me this month. But the results are not surprising to anyone who reads the insider information we were provided.
Here!
But to be fair this was posted from me after both Nintendo and Sonys comments about Switch and Ps4 sales.
They probably saw amazon charts. But it was expected since PS4 was not as competitive. Xbox stayed at 200 while PS4 was 250-300. Now I'm curious about the gap. The last time there was those price difference PS4 got crushed. I think it was 2014? If PS4 is close behind that's probably a really good sign.
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For the people saying these results were unexpected I'm just going to quote two of my own posts from this first page:
Now that isn't to say that most still have the edge to PS4 but that's to be expected given the results of last month and the trends throughout the year. However, for those of us paying attention to the promotions, trends, and insight provided for the month it always seemed like #1 was a fairly sure thing and it was a toss up between #2 and #3 in units. It basically just boiled down to how much stock you believed was available for the $199 PS4 promotion on Cyber Monday and if that was enough to offset the gains due to the price differential in the rest of the month. I thought it'd be enough to make it a really close race but not enough to overcome the gap XB1 built during the time it was $100 or more cheaper.
Furthermore, I'll say this: it is incredibly unlikely that we see XB1 place second in revenue due to the massive difference in price between PS4 and XB1S for most of the month. Since the more affordable units make up the lions share of the sales and the XB1S was regularly $100 or more less than the cheapest PS4 option it would mean that PS4 sales in comparison would have to be extremely poor to offset that revenue gap or XB1X would have to account for a much larger share of total XB1 units sold than would seem reasonable. We just don't have anything to really indicate that sort of sales differential between the two for month. It's possible sure but very unlikely imo.
Now that isn't to say that most still have the edge to PS4 but that's to be expected given the results of last month and the trends throughout the year. However, for those of us paying attention to the promotions, trends, and insight provided for the month it always seemed like #1 was a fairly sure thing and it was a toss up between #2 and #3 in units. It basically just boiled down to how much stock you believed was available for the $199 PS4 promotion on Cyber Monday and if that was enough to offset the gains due to the price differential in the rest of the month. I thought it'd be enough to make it a really close race but not enough to overcome the gap XB1 built during the time it was $100 or more cheaper.
Furthermore, I'll say this: it is incredibly unlikely that we see XB1 place second in revenue due to the massive difference in price between PS4 and XB1S for most of the month. Since the more affordable units make up the lions share of the sales and the XB1S was regularly $100 or more less than the cheapest PS4 option it would mean that PS4 sales in comparison would have to be extremely poor to offset that revenue gap or XB1X would have to account for a much larger share of total XB1 units sold than would seem reasonable. We just don't have anything to really indicate that sort of sales differential between the two for month. It's possible sure but very unlikely imo.
My guess from earlier in the thread:
PlayStation 4 >2.8M with >1600K November & >1175K December
Xbox One >2.55M with >1350K November & >1225K December
Switch >2.3M with >800K November & >1575K December
PS4, well up compared to last year with probably around 3M shipped for the two months but not fully sold out by the end of December.
X1, slightly up compared to last year due to big promotions running through out December, PUBG launch and X1X's second month.
Switch selling exceptionally well during it's launch year and surpassing 5M sold in the US for 2017.
Hey everyone, Magicpork was so kind as to provide us with some very interesting numbers:
PS4 sold 72% of Switch numbers this month, XB1 did 91%. Seems like there is a sizeable gap between XB1 and PS4, quite possibly over 150k.
XB1 did 91% of Switch?
Damn. Price sensitivity is still a helluva thing in December cause those numbers are pretty fantastic for XB1. Almost had a shot of beating Switch.
Damn. Price sensitivity is still a helluva thing in December cause those numbers are pretty fantastic for XB1. Almost had a shot of beating Switch.
Well, after years reading Gaf and posting un other spanish forums, foro the first time i feel confortable posting on Gaf/Era un terms of sales threads, because now i know how the market works thanks to the info of people with knowledge, that is impossible un the other forums i was visiting years ago.
If you think the console wars un this forum is horrible, you never visited the forums i visited, those are toxic land.
EDIT: Sorry about the constant missppelling, the motherfucking cellphone and ithe motherfucking auto translator.
Cheers to Benji, Mat, Abdiel and other users for the info. :)
If you think the console wars un this forum is horrible, you never visited the forums i visited, those are toxic land.
EDIT: Sorry about the constant missppelling, the motherfucking cellphone and ithe motherfucking auto translator.
Cheers to Benji, Mat, Abdiel and other users for the info. :)
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We know that Switch did at least 1400k (per the 4.8 million sales mark for this year). PS4 being 72% of that means that it did at least 0.72*1400 = 1008k. Keep in mind that this is only true when assuming Switch at 1400k, which could be quite a bit higher (possibly 100k or more). At any rate, PS4 definitely did over 1 million this month.
Wasn't XB1 pegged at around 1350k last month? Depending on the Switch number, XB1 might be up MoM (needs Switch around or over 1500k).
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True. PS4 has sold 50% more software, while only 20% more hardware. Goes to show that more software has to have been bought by PS4 owners compared to XB1 owners. Likely in part because of the exclusives.
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I think the cross-section of maintaining the bolder sale pricing for the base model and some enthusiasm for the high-end model basically cast the widest net for Microsoft. They had great offerings all around this holiday, so while I'm surprised, it makes sense. I'm really excited to see the Switch uptake continue like it is. My outlook before the launch was pretty bleak for the Switch, and I love being wrong about something like this (and if I hadn't bought mine as early as I did, I'd be even more burried by that backlog).
Yup, dat Pokémon effect! Can't wait for the Switch Pokémon game.
If Switch is 1.4 million:
XB1 - 1.274.000
PS4 - 1.008.000
3DS - 700.000
If Switch is 1.45 million:
XB1 - 1.319.500
PS4 - 1.044.000
3DS - 725.000
If Switch is 1.5 million:
XB1 - 1.365.000
PS4 - 1.080.000
3DS - 750.000
Wow, this December is weaker than i thought for PS4. Looks like the range is 1-1.1 million. 2017 total sales should be ~5.4M, so not peak year, but still up YOY
XB1 is down YOY compared to 2016, and it most likely also sold less than December 2015 (1,376,000)... 2017 sales should be ~ 4.2/4.3M
But 3DS... DAMN, 3DS! Those sales are HUGE for a 7 years old console after a new generation released. :O
I mean, even with a 100$ price advantage it didn't beat the Switch. good numbers, but far from fantastic imo.
XB1 - 1.274.000
PS4 - 1.008.000
3DS - 700.000
If Switch is 1.45 million:
XB1 - 1.319.500
PS4 - 1.044.000
3DS - 725.000
If Switch is 1.5 million:
XB1 - 1.365.000
PS4 - 1.080.000
3DS - 750.000
Wow, this December is weaker than i thought for PS4. Looks like the range is 1-1.1 million. 2017 total sales should be ~5.4M, so not peak year, but still up YOY
XB1 is down YOY compared to 2016, and it most likely also sold less than December 2015 (1,376,000)... 2017 sales should be ~ 4.2/4.3M
But 3DS... DAMN, 3DS! Those sales are HUGE for a 7 years old console after a new generation released. :O
I mean, even with a 100$ price advantage it didn't beat the Switch. good numbers, but far from fantastic imo.
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Eh, that the third place console is giving Switch a run for its money is pretty fantastic.
PS4 SW numbers impressive as always. Considering the userbase the switch SW numbers look very good as they do in most regions.
Using these ratios, if Switch did 1521k or more, then PS4, XB1 and Switch together sold over 4 million systems. That's a lot, and with 3DS and other consoles it would even be 5.66 million and over.
As Mat noted the industry is frankly in a better place than it' been in a very long time in regards to revenue, software, install base, demographics being served, etc.
We should all be really happy.
Oh yeah, that's true. Does XB1 have a significantly higher digital share?
That PS4 drop is crazy. Shows everyone moved their purchase to Black Friday but I still wasn't expecting such a drop.
So combined with November (just going to round PS4 December to ~1.1M for a max), then total holiday sales were 2.79M. This can go down to 2.7M if PS4 was closer to 1M.
PS4 holiday sales (November + December)
2013: 2M
2014: 1.9M
2015: 3.12M
2016: ~2.68M (Could be higher given what was discussed last month)
2017: ~2.7M - ~2.79M
XB1 holiday sales (November + December)
2013: 1.82M
2014: 2.53M
2015: 2.67M
2016: ~2.52M (Could be different given what was discussed last month)
2017: ~2.65M - ~2.75M (Using Ryng's numbers above)
So this could have most likely been the Xbox One's best holiday.
So combined with November (just going to round PS4 December to ~1.1M for a max), then total holiday sales were 2.79M. This can go down to 2.7M if PS4 was closer to 1M.
PS4 holiday sales (November + December)
2013: 2M
2014: 1.9M
2015: 3.12M
2016: ~2.68M (Could be higher given what was discussed last month)
2017: ~2.7M - ~2.79M
XB1 holiday sales (November + December)
2013: 1.82M
2014: 2.53M
2015: 2.67M
2016: ~2.52M (Could be different given what was discussed last month)
2017: ~2.65M - ~2.75M (Using Ryng's numbers above)
So this could have most likely been the Xbox One's best holiday.
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I don't think everyone moved the purchases to BF as much as the deals weren't that good this month.
Consider how good XB1 sales were both this month and last month, in part due to those deals.
Oh wow, do we know how much PS4 has approximately sold (or a range for that at least)?
~23M
The gap is pretty close to 3M. Was above that in November but the XB1 pulled ahead by a couple 100K in December.
Some people argued that $249 Battlefront II bundle was basically as good as $199 without a game. It's proved that was not even close, a price tag below $200 has much more effect than agregate value at $250. That said, I'm still surprised at how big is the MoM drop for PS4.
In the other hand Xbox One seems to be basically flat MoM, a solid performance.
In the other hand Xbox One seems to be basically flat MoM, a solid performance.
Same scenario as November 2014. When there is such a difference in price we'll always see a similar outcome between PS4 and One.
Does anyone remember what was last known PS3 LTD number in US? I wonder how close to that PS4 already is.
360 LTD: ~43.2M
WII LTD: ~41.7M
PS3 LTD: ~26.8M
PS4: ~23M
XB1: +20M
PS4 will pass PS3 by the end of this year. Xbox One sometime in 2019.