Is this mostly Nintendo's fault for the market shrinking? Was the wii/Ds an anomaly? Are we just seeing a market correction to where it should be rather than a contraction? Keep in mind also that casuals migrated to smart devices.
Well, no doubt the Wii/DS bouyed hardware/software sales for the industry last gen...just like the ps2 did the gen before that...
But I don't think you can blame Nintendo for the entirety of console contraction.
I mean, the ps4+Vita sales will not match ps3+Psp sales (~166 million)...there is a definite contraction in Sony and Microsoft hardware sales without even factoring Nintendo at all.
Sure, the ubiquity of mobile/social gaming now is making it harder to cultivate future dedicated console gamers going forward...that has a lot to do with the contraction. Before phone/iPad gaming, kids growing up with handhelds and arcades naturally progressed to home consoles. Kids growing up playing iPad/iPhone games don't progress to buying dedicated home consoles just to play home console gaming quite as easy as before. Hence the contraction.
Nintendo making dedicated gaming machines that get consumers who normally wouldn't get into dedicated console gaming...is the best hope for industry growth going forward (Sony/Microsoft isn't growing this market)
[i wouldn't use "casuals" as the term. Casuals...people who buy 1-2 games a year...make up most of the home console market already. The ps4 console appeals to casuals. GTAV has huge casual appeal, etc. The type of consumers that the ps2/Wii/ds appealed to were those who
normally aren't console owners. ...not the same as casual gamers. Hopefully this is something the Switch fosters too]