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Buffy Mafia |OT| We're talkin' violence, strong language, adult content
- Thread starter Dr. Monkey
- Start date
- Status
Oh I guess I did (although that was more referring to myself)
Fran is town, I don't think Sorian v Fran was faked
Sometimes you feel like wanting to help made things worse.
I agree on that bit.
Going back to melon: I also agree that she is somehow going under the radar after the "sharky" start of the game. I think she answered to my reads-request but I haven't gone over it yet. Do you think she could be scum?
And what's your verdict on Flush today?
Is it me or is the thread way more active today than on D3? I'm still not caught up. Sorry. (Currently post 2400 and I have to leave in half an hour already...)
If there is any urgent development you need my opinion on just ask, I'll check this last page while I'm here.
Mostly, also, I see D3 as split in two halves, pre LP and post LP claim
Neither of them seemed commited to go after Sorian in any moment.
At least one of them must be scum imho
You missed some parts of my questions there...
What's your current opinion on Kyan? And please give me a respond to the second part.
I'm not done reading yet, let alone analyzing. Judging from vote pattern Kyan is up there. The other one? Maybe *Splinter. His hard gunning against me yesterday actually makes me feel a bit better about him than the past two days... Or maybe Ty4on because he felt a bit faded out the whole game.
For the end of D3: I did not expect to start such a strong Sorian train, as can be seen by the post where I said I would switch to L_P over SweetNicole if I had to switch. One of the reasons I voted for Sorian was to force people to act to break the 3-way tie. I would say it worked beautifully. Some people argued today I'm most likely not Scum because I brought Sorian back into consideration. I would say with similar reasoning we can strike turmoil7 from the immediate Scum shortlist as he was the one who brought Sorian in the lead if I remember correctly.
I also just came across a post who said the L_P was probably speaking the truth about Sweet_Nicole because he needed a Town alive to hide behind. He wasn't confident enough in Nicole not getting NK'd tho after he confirmed her. Only while reading that post I understood what he meant by "condemning" his N1 target. He needed them to stay anonymous to not draw Scum's attention to them. I would suspect it was Sawneeks given that he most likely hid behind her N3. I still don't know why Saw was killed, tho.
Aaand this is where I need to go already. I'll just comment on the two quotes I had saved:
Are you two insane? (Well, it's Blarg, but you all know what I mean :D) Without Gorlak that Sorian train would never had started moving. His arguing that one of the two is very likely Scum certainly was what tipped me over the edge into considering Sorian as a vote. He was gunning hard in this direction for almost the whole day. He is close to confirmed Town in my eyes.
About swamped:
Day 1 she's fairly active, prodds and puts out her opinion. Of note is the dcpat looks like a nervous townie stance, which she backed away from herself. Oh, the initial critique thrown at Sorian looks artificial. She has scummy vibes on Flush which change D2. Leans town on Sorian.
To me she seemed helpful.
Day 2 we have Verelios (!) bringing a case against her, which she responds to in 1073. She was the one bringing up the case against gir (1286). And she says she feels nervous about Sorian, going away from her townlean.
Have to look at that Vere discussion in detail, but apart from that I don't anything out of the ordinary.
Day 3 she was quite inactive. There is a small convo between her and Sorian and ultimately she says Fran v Sorian is boring. Pushes Fran for the celebrity claim, which I found reasonable at the time, as I found Fran's behaviour odd. She wasn't around at the end.
Most of the time I agree with her logic and I tend to townread people who have similar thoughts about certain situations. That's what probably let me believe she's town.
Swamped What's your stance on Flush and Splinter now? Who are your biggest scum suspects?
Day 1 she's fairly active, prodds and puts out her opinion. Of note is the dcpat looks like a nervous townie stance, which she backed away from herself. Oh, the initial critique thrown at Sorian looks artificial. She has scummy vibes on Flush which change D2. Leans town on Sorian.
To me she seemed helpful.
Day 2 we have Verelios (!) bringing a case against her, which she responds to in 1073. She was the one bringing up the case against gir (1286). And she says she feels nervous about Sorian, going away from her townlean.
Have to look at that Vere discussion in detail, but apart from that I don't anything out of the ordinary.
Day 3 she was quite inactive. There is a small convo between her and Sorian and ultimately she says Fran v Sorian is boring. Pushes Fran for the celebrity claim, which I found reasonable at the time, as I found Fran's behaviour odd. She wasn't around at the end.
Most of the time I agree with her logic and I tend to townread people who have similar thoughts about certain situations. That's what probably let me believe she's town.
Swamped What's your stance on Flush and Splinter now? Who are your biggest scum suspects?
OP
OP
Just as an FYI, we haven't been super aggressive about post count because they took away the counting tool, but I have a situational awareness of who isn't posting and those will be counted. So consider this a reminder of the 10-post minimum per phase.
Looking back at Include and Sorian:
Later in the game she made a short comment on the Fran-Sorian fight:
Overall town and I don't see myself putting my vote here unless we're in lylo.
This is the post I like the most. It seems most focused on reading Sorian's decisions rather than putting him into a neat box. One thing I could see from a scum perspective though is the second to last line looks like an explanation for why she won't focus on reading him.
Later in the game she made a short comment on the Fran-Sorian fight:
It's asking Fran and looks a little detached, but kinda in a good way. She seems more focused on Fran's claim and not really bothered that Sorian is attacked, and her question seems to come from wanting to understand Fran's thoughts rather than try to convince him or anyone reading otherwise.
This post doesn't have Sorian in it, but I included it since the omission is a little strange. This was before the Sorian lynch really gained steam, but it was still very much on the table and this post brings up two lynch candidates (me and LP) and then votes for a third. She's afk for the lynch because of timezones. Those other posts are enough for me to lean town on her as they don't look manufactured, especially from a novice player, but this post kinda makes me wonder if I'm underestimating her and she's trying to push other lynch candidates while making a vote outside of them to stay off of a mislynch.
Sorian made this comment, but it reads as NAI. I can see an attempt to link Fran and Include so a hypothetical Fran town flip makes Include look better, but I think he just picked her because she made a good fit for what he was writing.
Overall town and I don't see myself putting my vote here unless we're in lylo.
So I understand Fran 's viewpoint and how this could be a scummy coordination when Swamped asked for clarification on the claim.
Of note is that Ty4on and Kyanrute both stated it's too obvious and bold for scum to do, if any of the three flip scum we need to come back to this. Actually add me to that list as well. While I don't think it's too obvious, I don't think it was scum supporting Sorian, but a townish request.
What's also weird: the dismissal of the whole Fran v Sorian discussion.
Thinking more about it, it is a weird thing to press a soft claim, isn't it? I don't know.
I'm not entirely sold on a case against swamped at the moment, but I wouldn't argue against her lynch.
Of note is that Ty4on and Kyanrute both stated it's too obvious and bold for scum to do, if any of the three flip scum we need to come back to this. Actually add me to that list as well. While I don't think it's too obvious, I don't think it was scum supporting Sorian, but a townish request.
What's also weird: the dismissal of the whole Fran v Sorian discussion.
Thinking more about it, it is a weird thing to press a soft claim, isn't it? I don't know.
I'm not entirely sold on a case against swamped at the moment, but I wouldn't argue against her lynch.
OP
OP
CURRENT VOTE TALLY
Blargonaut (0)
Gorlak 2367
*Splinter (2)
turmoil7 2408
Blargonaut 2411
Gorlak 2611
Brazil (1)
Kyanrute 2474
StanleyPalmtree (1)
melonrabbit 2511
Gorlak (1)
Blargonaut 2578
Blargonaut (0)
*Splinter (2)
turmoil7 2408
Gorlak 2611
Brazil (1)
Kyanrute 2474
StanleyPalmtree (1)
melonrabbit 2511
Gorlak (1)
Blargonaut 2578
I don't see how you come up with this conclusion after reading your post.
Nice! I come back to see an analysis from someone I scum read and a positive one! Don't be fooled, remember he scum read me at the start of this day and now suddenly he doesn't? Riiight.
Ty didn't bother to give any explanation about his voting townies D1 & D2 but somehow goes and make a giant analysis for me? Am I crazy to see how fishy it is? Especially he doesn't want to vote me out after saying he scum read me?
I am gonna post more today, I have so much to say.
Looking back at Indeed. She voted for Melon 2 days in a row. Her reasoning for melon boils down to joke votes and not liking melons response to a freaking gif on day 1. On day 2 she does an analysis of everyone and still doubles down on melon. Not because of any new information but falling back on her day 1 argument. With so many other players and Includes deep analysis she has done, I find it odd the one person she focuses on to lynch 2 days in a row are based off such weak arguements.
Indeed are you still reading melon as scum? Are your reasoning's the same as they were on day 1?
Indeed are you still reading melon as scum? Are your reasoning's the same as they were on day 1?
Read list time:
town
Fran - fight with Sorian confirms him for me
Flush - the one who made Sorian a viable lynch while other options were available
hom3land - I don't believe in a scumconspirancy
Nicole - LP claim (people convinced me)
Blarg - got a feeling, also sometimes you find what you need too late
turmoil - made the almost deciding vote on Sorian, I think he's good
very confident about the above, much less sure about
Swamped - reading her in detail makes me wonder, I still townread her, but have doubts
null
Include - vanished today, don't have a clue
GoG - I just don't remember much about her, she isn't standing out, Sorian defending her is a bad sign, but as I said could also be a red herring
Stan - vanished today, is riding his drunk townvibe hard, should offer more
suspicious
melon - despite being sharky at the beginning now in coasting mode
Brazil - refusing to vote at the end
scum
Splinter - barely offering opinions, pushed Flush when Sorian was about to be lynched
Ty - sidelines during Fran v Sorian, latest Sorian vote looks like a bus vote, was on flush beforehand
Kyan - went for Flush
town
Fran - fight with Sorian confirms him for me
Flush - the one who made Sorian a viable lynch while other options were available
hom3land - I don't believe in a scumconspirancy
Nicole - LP claim (people convinced me)
Blarg - got a feeling, also sometimes you find what you need too late
turmoil - made the almost deciding vote on Sorian, I think he's good
very confident about the above, much less sure about
Swamped - reading her in detail makes me wonder, I still townread her, but have doubts
null
Include - vanished today, don't have a clue
GoG - I just don't remember much about her, she isn't standing out, Sorian defending her is a bad sign, but as I said could also be a red herring
Stan - vanished today, is riding his drunk townvibe hard, should offer more
suspicious
melon - despite being sharky at the beginning now in coasting mode
Brazil - refusing to vote at the end
scum
Splinter - barely offering opinions, pushed Flush when Sorian was about to be lynched
Ty - sidelines during Fran v Sorian, latest Sorian vote looks like a bus vote, was on flush beforehand
Kyan - went for Flush
I find his post about you odd. He is showing these quotes and nothing screams town to me, he even goes and explains the caveats and how you could be scum. But ends up with that very definite statement when nothing above warrants it.
Where did he not answer?
Care to explain why?
I pointed out things that bothered me, but the first post I quoted just didn't read like scum distancing and she seems genuinely interested in solving Sorian.
She's also focused on how he is thinking and trying to reason why. That shows a level of thinking that I don't often see scum v scum do. Scum are usually much more interested in just getting a read out so they can justify their vote in a neat way, they're not really solving when they know everything.
Nope.
Ahahaha, Werewolf is great at parties! I love it!
I never said I scum read you. I don't give binary reads and summed up thoughts, but overall I find the bits that could be scum motivated to be less likely than those that seem town motivated.
I voted for those two because I thought they were the best lynch at the time. I've explained why earlier in this game.
You never asked for an explanation in the first place?
Include started the game with a fresh motivation and tackled things differently than the majority. She got heat for that, but continued to do so in D2, I think. However I disagreed with a lot of her points and cases. In D3 and partly before if my memory is correct she became more inactive. Yeah, she didn't read D2 during D2, did she? At least something like that.
I never felt the itch to look at her in detail. She became a null to me, because others caught my attention. Nothing she did seemed very towny or scummy. Reading Sorian's posts also didn't unveil anything for me in that regard.
She got a migrane and fell off a bit at the start of D2:
You could read the quotes in my post.
I don't remember you acting super townie in between your shitposts?
There was a patch of investigation last day phase (or the one before?) which looked a bit townish but overall my impression of you hasn't really changed. Remember that evolution talk? You still feel off.
And your explanation of day end behaviour isn't really satisfying.
But for the most part it boils down to that saving try.
Looking at it in timeline: your vote made it 5 - 4 for Sorian, with Sorian not voting yet.
Nicole put it at 6 - 4, and Sorian at 6 - 5. Ty switches last minute 7 - 4
Yeah I remember. Wanted to see if you did too. Day ends are what they are, can't really do much about that except accept that those are things that will be used against me.
Alright let's start by the beginning I apologize for not being very active on this D4, I was away from my home.
So I have a couple of thoughts about the D3 ends, I saw some of your theories but I had this too and wanted to share as well:
1. LP said he left a breadcrumb and didn't say why. I think I can guess why, he was a neutral and according to his win condition regardless if town or scum wins he will win too. That got me thinking that he didn't need to help us in any way, for me he was leaving his options open with both sides, scums may not vote him out in the future if they feel like he isn't gonna be an immediate treat to them by guessing he was a neutral by his attitude and voting.
2. I don't know if Saw was truly going after hom3land or not, however I have a theory that she was actually trying to attract some scums to make a move (bait them), I think it may be a reason why they killed her, she was getting really bold and unpredictable and I feel like she was making a chess move on D3.
3. I never had any town lean since the beginning of this game but I am feeling pretty good about the people who voted Sorian (minus Ty last minute vote which I will explain more later).
Fran, I am confident that you are town now however up until your argument with Sorian and his flip I scum read you. Once this game ends or if we both die and we get into the spec chat I would like you to explain one of your message to me which skewed my view of you further into the scum spectrum.
So I have a couple of thoughts about the D3 ends, I saw some of your theories but I had this too and wanted to share as well:
1. LP said he left a breadcrumb and didn't say why. I think I can guess why, he was a neutral and according to his win condition regardless if town or scum wins he will win too. That got me thinking that he didn't need to help us in any way, for me he was leaving his options open with both sides, scums may not vote him out in the future if they feel like he isn't gonna be an immediate treat to them by guessing he was a neutral by his attitude and voting.
2. I don't know if Saw was truly going after hom3land or not, however I have a theory that she was actually trying to attract some scums to make a move (bait them), I think it may be a reason why they killed her, she was getting really bold and unpredictable and I feel like she was making a chess move on D3.
3. I never had any town lean since the beginning of this game but I am feeling pretty good about the people who voted Sorian (minus Ty last minute vote which I will explain more later).
Fran, I am confident that you are town now however up until your argument with Sorian and his flip I scum read you. Once this game ends or if we both die and we get into the spec chat I would like you to explain one of your message to me which skewed my view of you further into the scum spectrum.
Thought I did because they are here in my note sheet:
Ty and melon say: "blabla bet" and that's all regarding the issue, I think they needed clarification about the bet and didn't take a stance. Brazil is very distant, Stan delivers side comment, Inlcude and Blarg don't mention it at all (it could be that include wasn't around)
Kyan has an early comment on Fran, but did not get back to the discussion.
Swamped is asking Fran about the claim, I don't remember if she took a stance.
You scumread Sorian in 1752, GoG thinks it's TvT, turmoil scumreads Sorian in 1816, Saw gives 1799 and 1832, Nicole says Sorian is town.
I have no clue what flush and hom3land did though.
Oh, Blarg did talk about it and offered the we should vote one of Sorian, Fran and me line.
---
Given that it "dominated" the discussion there were just too many people on the sidelines watching.
You may want to read back my analysis of her... I have no idea how you manage to boil it down to a gif which was a footnote in my analysis?! And yes she is my top scum since then and she has done nothing to change my opinion of her, even the fact that she town read me later on IIRC.
What do you think of her? Do you town read her? Did you research her?
Blarg is feeling very townish. He's inquisitive and cut the crap out of his posts. Unlike yesterday he is in the game and seems to have a lead. I've doubts if he's making the right conclusions, but that's up to him. Yesterday I wasn't sure, but this is definitely town Blarg we are dealing with.
I'm curious about your vote for melon at the end of D3 and what you thought about Sorian and Fran at that time. Why melon when she wasn't a contender at the time?
How long did you stay awake too? I'm in Central European so I think we're in the same timezone.
Are we running in circles, Ty?
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