Wait a moment, i thought results were already out for clients... Now i need to ask, what is the period NPD track for this month? I thought it was from December 30 to January 27?
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January 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 6th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
Wait a moment, i thought results were already out for clients... Now i need to ask, what is the period NPD track for this month? I thought it was from December 30 to January 27?
Nope, not unless a super secret society deep in the bowels of HQ has decided to go rogue.
I don't remember the reporting dates offhand, not at my comp. I can post reporting dates of 1H tomorrow.
I would appreciate it, because i had a discussion about this month being a 4 or 5 weeks month, and usually results are out 2 weeks after the tracking period is over. If results are out next week, that would be 3 weeks.
I must have missed the memo. Also didn't see it in the slack. Apologies, it'll never happen again.
To be fair, that discussion i'm talking about happen in another site, not in this thread. Yes, in the first page i asked if this was a 4 or 5 weeks month and Welfare replied me, but i'm talking mostly about a conversation happen on Chartz with an user called Shadow (a very nice guy who follow sales threads a lot, would be nice to have him here), saying this was supposed to be a 5 weeks month. I was never 100% sure about that, i just trusted in the ERA OP which said the tracking was from December 30 to January 27. That's my fault, i should have reported that conversation there before.
Now we really need to know if is 4 or 5 weeks haha.
I think that if this is really a 5 weeks month, the deadline will be delayed and we will have the chance to change the predictions. No reason to not doing that, since results won't be out before a week.
Sorry about the calendar, I didn't think to check the OP to make sure y'all were predicting on the proper timeframe.
Coverage dates:
Jan - Dec 31 through Feb 3 - Media Feb 22
Feb - Feb 4 through Mar 3 - Media Mar 22
Mar - Mar 4 through Apr 7 - Media Apr 26
Apr - Mar 8 through May 5 - Media May 24
May - May 6 though Jun 2 - Media Jun 21
June - June 3 through Jul 7 - Media Jul 26
Jan - Dec 31 through Feb 3 - Media Feb 22
Feb - Feb 4 through Mar 3 - Media Mar 22
Mar - Mar 4 through Apr 7 - Media Apr 26
Apr - Mar 8 through May 5 - Media May 24
May - May 6 though Jun 2 - Media Jun 21
June - June 3 through Jul 7 - Media Jul 26
Thank you a lot Mat. So Shadow was right, January 2018 is a 5 weeks month, i need to give him my apologies. xD
New predictions (i'll wait to see what Donny does before edit my first comment, even if i'm 100% sure he will let us change out predictions)
NSW - 361K
PS4 - 257K
XB1 - 187K
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What's that supposed to be? Time's over. As if error margins weren't annoying enough...
Thanks Mat, didn't realize this year had the extra week.
Well then, we're going to see pretty high January numbers then.
It is a bummer that the months now extend almost a week into the following month. Puts the media dates late every month in the 1H. "herp derp this is old why are you so sloooooooooow" blaaaaaaahhhhhhhhhhhhh
I like how you ignore the fact that PS4 wasn't competitive at all in terms of price. 50 dollars difference for most of the month.
I don't ignore it.
Xbox One S had the price advantage over Ps4 Slim for most of the month. Ps4 Pro on the other hand was $50 off in December for a week or more depending on retailer, while Xbox One X was regular price all month long.
Xbox One had a bigger price advantage over Ps4 in December 2014 and outsold Ps4 by a smaller margin with just a little over 200k units. The following January gap? Roughly 50k.
Ps4 outsold Xbox One in December 2015 by ~200k. The following January gap? Roughly 100k.
Ps4 outsold Xbox One in December 2016 by ~50k. The following January gap? Below 75k.
So yes. Out of every January since launch, this should be the best and most competitive for the Xbox One family due to the reasons i mentioned before.
I did ask in the front page if it was supposed to be a 5 week period, nobody replied.
with this spirit i'd iike you to participate in our company's sales meetings.
Ah, crap! I totally forgot about predictions! I saw the thread come and go and was reminding myself to post my predictions, but eventually, I got so busy I forgot. The thread almost never being on the first few pages doesn't help either :(
God damn it I missed this month. For the record I would probably have guessed
[XB1] 160k
[PS4] 250k
[NSW] 280k
[XB1] 160k
[PS4] 250k
[NSW] 280k
Any reason why pretty much everyone is thinking the Switch will outsell the PS4 in January? Didnt MHW release in January and had big sales sales in the west? Were there any big game releases in January for Switch?
Hey, if updating predictions is allowed, please allow a new prediction entry for people who have been in the game since 2015! :P
It's far too late for any updates. Not because some might have access to any sort of data by now but because just very few here who follow the discussion would be aware of that possibility. It would inevitably lead to arguments about the whole process.
Besides, what's the point? Does anybody here except Mat (who doesn't actually participate predicting concrete numbers but is so kind to share his insights) gets paid to make those?
What is more important, if everybody asumed January was a 4-week month then we are talking about a systematic error for everyone (and with regard to absolute numbers a very small one, compared to holiday season). So we still get to know who was best in prediciting numbers in January which is the whole purpose of this thread. Allowing a bunch of predictors to change numbers would completely jeopardize that.
Besides, what's the point? Does anybody here except Mat (who doesn't actually participate predicting concrete numbers but is so kind to share his insights) gets paid to make those?
What is more important, if everybody asumed January was a 4-week month then we are talking about a systematic error for everyone (and with regard to absolute numbers a very small one, compared to holiday season). So we still get to know who was best in prediciting numbers in January which is the whole purpose of this thread. Allowing a bunch of predictors to change numbers would completely jeopardize that.
May be create a new thread.. and see if people notice it? if more than 70% participate in that thread.. make it the official one.. otherwise we can decide the winner by multiplying eveyone's number by 1.25. (to cater for 5 weeks instead of 4)
Urgh, we now have to wait until (nearly) the end of each respective month to see the results...
And yeah, it's too little, too late to update our predictions. I would be somewhat amused if all of our four-week predictions ends up being very close to the actual hardware numbers!
It isn't, but it is strongly weighted towards PS4. Also that's like saying Destiny isn't an exclusive. It still moves consoles.
So, we multiply everbody's results by 1.25 to see who's the real winner. Now that's clever....
OP
OP
Oh, wow. jvm!? What happened? Ha, ha. Okay. 5-week month. Predictions through next Tuesday, February 13. Get predicting/updating!
Thanks, MatPiscatella !
Edit:
87 people predicted before the original cutoff. Will regather predictions on Tuesday. If anyone doesn't update their predictions. Can go with the 1.25 method. Not perfect, but it's at least trying to compensate. Yeah, complications!
Thanks, MatPiscatella !
Edit:
87 people predicted before the original cutoff. Will regather predictions on Tuesday. If anyone doesn't update their predictions. Can go with the 1.25 method. Not perfect, but it's at least trying to compensate. Yeah, complications!
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Well, congrats. Pretty sure no one who didn't get the message will be bothered by this... At the very least make a new thread or PM those who made a valid one. Unless you're okay with pissing off anyone who doesn't look into this thread on a regular base...
The first Destiny? Sure, it was at the beginning of the gen, many people still didn't have current gen consoles, the second one wasn't able to move consoles though as far as we've heard, there is no reason to think that MHW will.
Well done, you've now got 2 sets of predictions in this thread.
HINT: Edit is your friend.
Hi everyone! Each person who has been quoted in this post made a prediction, either on time or too late. This post serves to notify you of an error in the predictions thread for this month: it was wrongly indicated that the month of January consisted of 4 weeks. This month consists of 5 weeks, not 4! Donny has reopened the prediction until 8 PM ET on Tuesday February 13th, so you can update your predictions. Make sure you update your original post, and do not make a new post! Having more than one prediction listed in the thread invalidates both predictions. If you do not update your prediction, Donny said he would apply a 1.25 multiplier to your current post, but you are granted the opportunity to make a modification that is tailor-made to reflect the situation of the extra week if you so wish. Good luck! You are allowed to make a prediction if you were too late, as long as it will have been posted by February 13th.
Summary:
- Reopened until February 13th;
- Edit your original post!
Donny's post on the matter:
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Can people confirm that they got a notification? So I know that my quoting their posts without content worked.
Edit: Verified to work, thanks for the replies!
Edit: Verified to work, thanks for the replies!
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Thanks, turns out quoting without content is a brilliant solution for notifying a large group of people without taking up the whole page with quotes!
