When you think about pipelines and climate change, you probably think about protesters trying to stop one in the name of the other. Since 2011, our news media has been full of images, from both north and south of the border, of exactly that. Keystone XL, Northern Gateway, Energy East and the TransMountain Expansion, as well as the Dakota Access pipeline in the US, faced significant protests which each framed stopping pipelines as a means to fight climate change. This week, the Prime Minister turned the tables. In an
interview with the National Observer's Sandy Garossino, Trudeau spelled out the new tradeoff:
"by blocking the Kinder Morgan pipeline, (B.C. Premier John Horgan) is putting at risk the entire national climate change plan."
Is the Prime Minister Trudeau correct? I think he is. The national climate plan we have today is, in large part, influenced by Alberta's policies (disclosure: I chaired Alberta's Climate Leadership Panel). Measures like the federal large final emitters treatment, the coal phase out, and the national carbon pricing backstop policy each approximate policies enacted by the Notley government in Alberta. This is a symbiotic relationship: federal climate policy backstops put a stronger foundation under the Alberta plan and, with the Alberta plan in place, there is a credible although still very challenging path for Canada to meet its 2030 target.
Without Alberta's plan, that credible path disappears. The Prime Minister was correct when he said that, with market access including the proposed Kinder Morgan pipeline, "Alberta would be able to be ambitious as we needed Alberta to be and get on with the national climate change plan." To meet Canada's targets, Canada needs Alberta on side.
The Prime Minister also identified the shakiest ground on which his national plan sits—that of unequal treatment between provinces. As he stated, if we get, "politicians who are picking and choosing parts of the national plan they don't like, and if we don't continue to stand strongly in the national interest, the things that people don't like within the agreement—which is always filled with compromises—are going to mean that there is no agreement, and there is no capacity to reach our climate targets." The federal plan, through it's
two-lane approach, has already opened the door to higher carbon prices in some provinces than others, and the burden of coal phase-out regulations announced last week as well as methane regulations being revised as we speak will each fall most heavily on a couple of provinces. A pipeline could easily be (I'm sorry to have to do this) the straw that broke the climate plan's back.
If B.C.'s efforts to block the pipeline result in the loss of Alberta's faith in the federal process and the government's ability to defend parts of its policies against assault from individual provinces, the alternative is clear. If the Prime Minister finds himself facing strong opposition from Alberta and Saskatchewan strongly opposed, a fight over a hybrid solution proposed by Manitoba, and a fight with the maritime provinces over coal power, he is in trouble. Combined with whatever the Ontario election might bring, it's not-at-all clear the national climate plan survives. That would, without a doubt, lead to far greater consequences for our national emissions inventory than any single pipeline could portend...