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January 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, February 6th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
And it is "fun"!
Thanks Donny for the ongoing work for these threads.
February is going to be Interesting(TM)
Thanks Donny for the ongoing work for these threads.
February is going to be Interesting(TM)
Thanks, looking really good for my bet ;)
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Not even close lol, Switch has to sell only 320K in both February/March, you still gonna lose even if January was worse than expect. >:P
I think this also depends on how many units PS4Pro and Xbox One X sold.
Gz freeradical
Not the first time you doing very well. Just luck, or do you really follow the market?
On topic:
#1 and #5 show that Switch is lower and noticeably below 300k
Not the first time you doing very well. Just luck, or do you really follow the market?
On topic:
#1 and #5 show that Switch is lower and noticeably below 300k
I'm not confirming or denying the units... but hardware dollar sales were up 119% compared to last year... that's more than double. And yet that seems low??? What??
Sounds good maybe I'm misremembering but the unit sales didn't seem much higher at first glance compared to previous 4 week Januarys but it seems Switch has added to the market and Pro and X are helping as far as ASP.
This January is decent for PS4 and huge for XB1.
PS4 2014: 271K (High demand not enough supply from holidays)
XB1 2014: 143K
PS4 2015: 189K
XB1 2015: 150K
PS4 2016: 229K
XB1 2016: 131K
PS4 2017: 211K
XB1 2017: 158K
Also checking the numbers, I get similar results to Ryng.
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Aren't they pushing the X as the flagship console and not the S recently? The last time I saw major marketing for the S was December.
But man come on process is the king .when u r 50 dollars cheaper u don't need any ads for it . And as we know base models of both are the majority of units solds .
The S was $50 cheaper for 1 week in January out of 5.
Not the whole month.
This February Xbox One S has a bigger price advantage with being $50 cheaper for 2 weeks out of 4.
When I'm asked about stuff like this I always say that it certainly doesn't hurt to have a game like that.
Just luck. I do like to read Welfare's historical data as a starting point though:)
I appreciate his "wall of text".
That is because Switch, no? The 119% up compared with last year.
PS4 looks to have a low month even with a addictional week.
XB1 looks to be the only one having a decent boost due the additional week.
Agree, always good reading his post, even when i don't agree with him his arguments are always interesting.
Welfare is my waifu <3
The PS4 Slim has no business being the price it currently at this stage of its lifetime imo. Its kind of crazy it is selling as well as it has been at $300. I wonder how long Sony will hold out before doing an official price drop again. Given the madrush that happened at $199 this holiday season there is clearly a sizable segment of the market that will buy at that price. Theyve gotta be making quite a bit off of each slim sold at this point considering the build quality of the slim and the likelihood that it substantially cut production costs for them per unit. I wonder if, perhaps, they are waiting for some sort of decline in sales WW before announcing the price drop.
*Husbando
In reply to Rex, the 1TB will probably receive a promotion at $249 like last year during the summer before a permanent cut to $249 in the fall. Sony has been doing perma price cuts in the August/September/October period for awhile now. The Pro should also see a cut to $349 this year. Maybe Sony want to tie the two consoles together so that they are $100 apart in the off months.
I am really interested in the PS4's performance up to June. Last February had a $249 price drop for 2 weeks which didn't happen this year, last April had the 1TB launch, and June had a special gold 1TB PS4 at $249.
I fully anticipate sales being substantially down YoY for the months leading up to an official price drop announcement or promotion. I honestly think its just about reached saturation at its current price point and I'm not sure a drop to $249 would be sufficient enough to draw in another segment of the market. If they do end up only dropping to $249 this year I could see it being a rather stark decrease from the previous year for HW sales.
Personally, with the success the $199 price point had for them, I think theyll be tempted to hit that price point again. Perhaps once costs decrease a bit further? I would be really interested to hear some estimates on what their and MS' costs per unit are nowadays. Looking just solely at the HW one would assume the SLim would be much cheaper to produce than the S and yet the S has the lower price point. SO either they are making substantially more profit per unit or theres something about the slim that makes it more costly than one would normally think to produce.
I am also expecting sales to be down big time this year, at least until Q4. Highly doubt we see February and March hit near 400K again and sales should be on a natural decline until the next price cut.
Sony would probably want to drop to $249 after a while so they can do longer periods of $199 during the holiday's. That'll be the Black Friday deal again (maybe even a few dollars cheaper) and will probably be the Christmas promotion. Then next year will have $199 promotions throughout the year, especially if 2019 is the PS5 launch. Even if PS5 is a 2020 launch, it's more time generating even more revenue/profit.
I know I may have asked this before but what numbers should be expected for Bayonetta 2? Would a 100% increase compared to the Wii I version devut be expected or that not happening?
I personally believe that Sony's not cutting the price because they can't. The ps4pro was expected to be cut by this time and it hasn't. If I remember correctly the ps4pro at launch was breaking even so with average sales in the average month I'm sure Sony is expecting the slim to cover any gaps and maintain profit.
Dropping the slim at this point is likely not in their ling term economic goals. As successful as the PS4 family is they don't have the chest to take risks that cause a dive into the red like they had 10-12 years ago.
Dropping the slim at this point is likely not in their ling term economic goals. As successful as the PS4 family is they don't have the chest to take risks that cause a dive into the red like they had 10-12 years ago.
Or - they're still meeting unit sales + margin targets and don't see the need yet for an out-Holiday season price drop.
Why kill your margin while still hitting volume targets?
You said you believe they can't, and implied if they did they'd be going into the red.
I'm saying they won't at the moment because they're achieving volume & margin. In no way does my post imply they can't cut the price of the Slim or Pro, and nor does it imply that doing so would result in red on the balance sheet.
At some point the volume/margin balance will change and you'll see a price cut or, more likely, some first party bundles which can help retain margin and volume.
The fact that parts got cheaper and still couldn't cut the pro gives enough to ask the question if whether they can or can't. That's on top of not cutting the slim
People here/gaf along with some media outlets expected due to part prices that the pro would be cut around launch or a bit later when the X came out.
I think the PS4pro despite the comparisons people make to the X is a bit more expensive to maintain than people thought. I don't think it's feasible for them to cut prices yet.
I partially expect the same thing to happen with the S and X from Xbox though Ms is usually good at getting deals Nvidia aside.
Congrats to the winners!
I guess it's impossible to compare PS4 vs Switch first January's since no concrete number. Ah well.
I guess it's impossible to compare PS4 vs Switch first January's since no concrete number. Ah well.
Naaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaah... I just hope it can sell 100k or more.
Sorry to bump the thread so late, but I recently got a moment to run a parametric and can offer numbers I think are a little better. Of course, these are still just estimates, but they should be more likely to be accurate than the previously posted numbers.
NSW - 268k
PS4 - 257k
XB1 - 241k