So clearly you'll be an Atari fanboy soon enough.
No, on topic, seriously appreciate your breakdowns and insights into the market, they are always fascinating.
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March 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 17th
- Thread starter donny2112
- Start date
So clearly you'll be an Atari fanboy soon enough.
No, on topic, seriously appreciate your breakdowns and insights into the market, they are always fascinating.
What do you call a fan of all 3? :P
A FanMAN. Leave the warring to the boys.
Your input here is really important so when you post something, people really pay attention to it, for better or for worse. You say sales unit ranking isn't important, but based on sales unit ranking Xbox One seems to be in third place so far in NPD. That's why you're getting so many replies: your posts are news events in this thread.
I'm not going to go looking for that but it's nice to know he still reads resetera despite his contempt for us. Hi crap! Enjoying the thread?
Alllllriiiiiiiiiiiiight I'm off the plane, chilling in the hotel, let's do this.
So.
Sales. I've mentioned it in both the media releases and here... this year sales between the consoles has been very, very close. Yes, PS4 has come out on top both months, but, as I've said in every month, all 3 platforms this year are doing very well so far. If I had to give grades to the 3 platforms so far this year I would grade both PS4 and Xbox One as A-, Switch a B+, just because it's in its first Jan-Feb period and I expected a bit more than we got. Still great, still on a record setting pace. My own grades. You don't have to agree.
Growth. I've also mentioned in the media releases that Xbox One and Switch have been the catalysts for year on year growth. Now, Switch is easy, it wasn't around last Jan-Feb. Xone has had fantastic growth, possibly driven by some of the reasons I've listed above, among maybe some others I'm not thinking of. PS4 continues to do VERY well, but it's not a leading contributor to growth. It doesn't need to be, it's selling at amazing levels. Growth would be a very big ask for something doing so well. So, to grade growth, I'd give Xone an A, PS4 and Switch Bs.
So, taking into account BOTH sales AND growth, I see Xbox One as being the best performing console on a YTD basis.
I'm NOT saying PS4 is doing poorly at all. It's the leading box. And of course Switch isn't doing poorly, it's setting records. I'm just saying all three boxes are doing amazingly well, but I'm personally most impressed by what Xbox One has been able to do so far in the year. You don't have to agree. I don't care.
Of course it's important. It's why I highlight it every media release. It's just not the ONLY thing that is.
Well, I wouldn't frame it in exactly this way, but yes the comparable sales period being low certainly helps with the growth metric.
They don't. If there's feedback like this it means I didn't clearly explain why I had a certain perspective. I appreciate and value the responses, supportive and critical. Only way I'm going to get better.
So.
Sales. I've mentioned it in both the media releases and here... this year sales between the consoles has been very, very close. Yes, PS4 has come out on top both months, but, as I've said in every month, all 3 platforms this year are doing very well so far. If I had to give grades to the 3 platforms so far this year I would grade both PS4 and Xbox One as A-, Switch a B+, just because it's in its first Jan-Feb period and I expected a bit more than we got. Still great, still on a record setting pace. My own grades. You don't have to agree.
Growth. I've also mentioned in the media releases that Xbox One and Switch have been the catalysts for year on year growth. Now, Switch is easy, it wasn't around last Jan-Feb. Xone has had fantastic growth, possibly driven by some of the reasons I've listed above, among maybe some others I'm not thinking of. PS4 continues to do VERY well, but it's not a leading contributor to growth. It doesn't need to be, it's selling at amazing levels. Growth would be a very big ask for something doing so well. So, to grade growth, I'd give Xone an A, PS4 and Switch Bs.
So, taking into account BOTH sales AND growth, I see Xbox One as being the best performing console on a YTD basis.
I'm NOT saying PS4 is doing poorly at all. It's the leading box. And of course Switch isn't doing poorly, it's setting records. I'm just saying all three boxes are doing amazingly well, but I'm personally most impressed by what Xbox One has been able to do so far in the year. You don't have to agree. I don't care.
Of course it's important. It's why I highlight it every media release. It's just not the ONLY thing that is.
Well, I wouldn't frame it in exactly this way, but yes the comparable sales period being low certainly helps with the growth metric.
They don't. If there's feedback like this it means I didn't clearly explain why I had a certain perspective. I appreciate and value the responses, supportive and critical. Only way I'm going to get better.
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Thank you for all that you have done and the extra information, don't let people get under your nerves and enjoy the trip :)
I think what Q1 has shown us for the Switch is that evergreens can only take you so far. Of course, as Mat said that's still pretty good, but there wasn't any real major releases on the Switch for the entire quarter other than Kirby. I think it'll start picking up again with Labo, the WIi U ports and a pretty good summer release slate.
Do you still predict that Switch will lead the US console market in 2018 ?
I'll allow Matt to answer himself but Pokemon, Smash, NSMB, second half and of course Labo, according to the most solid leads we have.
It might just break records.
April will have GOW so that's obvious, why March though?
Anyways, if we're talking about big months I expect September to be a crazy one for PS4. Wouldn't be that surprising to me if it ended up beating the record set when the first Destiny came out.
Switch while still doing great has slowed more than I was expecting it to. I think that can be placed pretty firmly on software output
(Btw this is a general first part of 2018 post not referring specifically to March)
I also agree looking at all factors Xbox has had the most impressive (relative) performance for early 2018 so far
(Btw this is a general first part of 2018 post not referring specifically to March)
I also agree looking at all factors Xbox has had the most impressive (relative) performance for early 2018 so far
Kind of feels like Nintendo didn't have a first-half software plan in place and all of a sudden were like "what....it's 2018 already?!?"
Not really, but the first six months of this year are a bit baffling to me, regardless.
Not really, but the first six months of this year are a bit baffling to me, regardless.
Doubtful, the modern vidro game company is evolved to be very specialized at plessing a certain type of audiece, and LABO is more toy than game. They will have less idea what to do with LABO than even the Wii mote, which is far more "vidro gamey" but they coukdnt figurr out either.
Of the companied, only Bamco might try something, given their toymaker roots and expertise in Bandai, but its no sure thing as Bamco also loves licensed toys....
I have called this since January this year when Mini direct is revealed, and they called me crazy. Gonna be painful until H2 i bet.
The lack of system moving third parties resulting in lowish (as in below its great start) sales between major Nintendo releases will be the story of NSW life if things stay the way they are now.
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I knew Switch would slow down a bit this year after October NPD. It was the first month with full stock and a big game ( even if at the of the month ) and didn't "explode" like many of us expected. Still as Matt said it's a on 12 months record so nothing to worry about.
What do you think about the pricing strategies for the Big Three for going forward?
Personally I think we're going to see:
- a $50 cut on both the PS4 slim and the pro in October. With the release of RDR2 that will push hardware like crazy. I'm guessing they'll go $199 from Black Friday to Christmas this year.
- Nintendo is unlikely to drop the price, I think they are going to start bundle more recent games, maybe the rumored NSM: switch? Smash?
- Xbox, not sure about this one. Previously they have had regular, temporary pricedrops followed by amazing Christmas deals at the end of the year? On the other hand they are doing very well at the moment so
they might not have to be as aggressive during the holiday season as they used to.
Personally I think we're going to see:
- a $50 cut on both the PS4 slim and the pro in October. With the release of RDR2 that will push hardware like crazy. I'm guessing they'll go $199 from Black Friday to Christmas this year.
- Nintendo is unlikely to drop the price, I think they are going to start bundle more recent games, maybe the rumored NSM: switch? Smash?
- Xbox, not sure about this one. Previously they have had regular, temporary pricedrops followed by amazing Christmas deals at the end of the year? On the other hand they are doing very well at the moment so
they might not have to be as aggressive during the holiday season as they used to.
it's obvious that not only crapgamer but also nintendo executives follow resetera.
so please stop saying exclusives don't sell consoles.
so please stop saying exclusives don't sell consoles.
Yeah, hard to understand what happened there. Especially if the age old rumor is true that they're basically just sitting on Pikmin, that could have gone well in the early 2 months. Maybe they have really high hopes for Labo and wanted to clear the roster, but that feels more like a Christmas game already moved forward. My guess is they, like us, expected Project Octopath and Wolfenstein 2 and maybe some other third parties to be there early this year, and together with South Park, Dark Souls etc. that it could fill up the empty months nicely. (Remember Miyamoto's claim that third parties will take less than a year to port over? That would be now thereabouts.) Only for them to get pushed out, and Switch suddenly ending up with a rather bare H1.
A more systemic problem that Nintendo faces w.r.t. third parties, is that it can't really do (yet) what Sony does: move all the big first party exclusives to H1, so that the AAA third parties can take over and thrive in H2. First because there currently aren't that many big third parties that port over to switch, but also because Nintendo sells half of their yearly consoles in the last few months of the year, and they would seriously cut into their profits if they moved their own games away from there. So Nintendo cannot not compete with the AAA third parties on their own console (which in turn works as a feedback loop for them not to port their games over).
This is an interesting point actually, but if you look at 2017, they left November wide open in terms of first party releases, so they clearly are aware of this systemic problem. Leaving November open for third parties is something they haven't really done before, and I think it can be seen as a bit of an olive branch to those third parties regarding 2018, but then again we still have the yearly AAA's missing the platform (so far) so it doesn't seem to have worked.
I have to wonder if they'll try to do that again but something tells me if Pokemon really makes it this year then they won't risk forgoing a November/Nintendo day release.
The problem is right there- "the impact LABO could have." Labo is a great concept and definitely worth a gamble, since it's not something the platform was built on and can easily be shoved aside if it fails. However, the gamble (in my mind) is relying solely on Labo for a major portion of the year. You're right that there's a chance for huge success but there's also a fairly decent chance that it's not a huge success, or more of a slow burn success, in which case you still wind up with relatively poor H1 performance.
The problem with letting Labo take care of H1 is that Labo does not target the same audience as those of a lot of other games they could've had ready. They could've delayed XC2 to early 2018, they could've had Metroid Prime Trilogy HD ready, they could've had the infamous Pikmin 4 ready... None of those games would eat into Labo's potential, since they're essentially completely different markets.
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I think it's just safer to underestimate it than it is to rely on it as a hardware driver. I don't think anyone's denying that it could be a phenomenon, just we are conscious of the fact that it could have mediocre performance
Is there any particular cause for concern based on the insiders? Because they are saying it's still great and in line with Nintendo's target.
Or am I misreading something?
Or am I misreading something?
People started to have crazy expectations after a WSJ article which said that Nintendo would have shipped between 25 and 30 ml units in this FY ( only Nintendo DS was able to do that IIRC).,
Nah I don't think anyone is concerned really, it's just been a bit of a missed opportunity to keep up very strong momentum for the first half of this year. Sales are fine, but they've slowed down more than most expected (it seems). I assume they managed to hit their FY target, but they had the opportunity to surpass it if they had better software available.
That article claimed they were planning to produce 25-30M units, which is different from shipped. Last year WSJ claimed they would produce 20M units in FY 2017, which seems fairly likely if they shipped 15-16M. There's a time delay between production and shipping (and sell through), and they're also likely stockpiling for big launches and the holiday season.
It´s always the same with Nintendo and software droughts though. They need to expand their development capabilities and partnerships with third party developers.
I think Nintendo is doing a great job with third party devs. Of course it's not easy to port some games on the platform.
Don't read anything into it. Like I said I'm not providing hardware info anymore.
I'm specifically referring to data that is already out there
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I would agree, but on the other hand Ps4 is still shattering expectations (at least mine). It should've slowed down by now, but it is not. Another console should sell better, but the Ps4 is still selling the most.
So for the first time i would agree on the following sentiment:
Every console is doing very impressive on their own.
So it's not even a hyperbole or just a blank phrase to picture the industry as doing good or to combat console wars.
It's just the truth.
I'm eager to see how well the PS4 does in March and April.
and I'm hoping when the data comes in for April. I wonder if we can parse through it and see if the Spider-man announcement maybe enticed people to pick up a PS4.
Yep been saying for a while recently the industry is currently healthier than it's ever been. Not just hardware but software as well. From huge AAA games all the way down to Indies there is growth and positive trajectories all over the place.
It's pretty hard to consider anyone doing poorly atm. That might not be fun for arguments but it's the honest truth.
PS4 is still doing fantastic. I only consider Xbox One relatively more impressive simply for the fact that it's seeing huge growth YoY. April should be a massive month for PS4 though once GoW hits
Question for either MatPiscatella or Benji. Do you think amazon chart under-represent the demand for Pro & X? What I mean is, do you find that people who buy the Pro/X already own a console so trade in the old console at brick and mortar retailers and therefore is over-represent at those retailers?
Do you find that Brick and Mortar retailers have a significantly larger share of X/Pro compare to online retailers and if so do you think its due to people trading in the base consoles?
Thanks in advance.
Amazon like any data sheet has all kinds of irregularities. Last month Amazon had the lowest selling console as the highest selling. Until Mat and company put out the NPD release no one has the full picture. Amazon is no different in that regard.
My personal opinion is that Pro and X can be a bit under represented on there, but idk I don't pay all that close attention to its rankings. Especially as software has always been far more interesting to me than hardware, and Amazon has straight up no accuracy whatsoever in regards to software performance in comparison to the rest of the market. That doesn't mean there is no value in it, as the more data you have, the better. Just I don't pay super close attention to it.
Hey, MatPiscatella
With the 3 upcoming Wii U ports of DK, HW, and Captain Toad, is the likely hood for larger debuts possible? I think Nintendo said DK and HW did around 190k their first few weeks and Toad did 200k? Possibly close to 300k for all 3 in a debut month? If they continue the trend of Wii U ports having stronger debuts than their original releases of course.
Also with Toad it is releasing with a brand new RPG exclusive and possibly a heft expansion to a Splatoon 2. Do you think it's Sales would be affected.
Also my dumb question, what team do you root for in the MLB? Always wanted to ask ;P
With the 3 upcoming Wii U ports of DK, HW, and Captain Toad, is the likely hood for larger debuts possible? I think Nintendo said DK and HW did around 190k their first few weeks and Toad did 200k? Possibly close to 300k for all 3 in a debut month? If they continue the trend of Wii U ports having stronger debuts than their original releases of course.
Also with Toad it is releasing with a brand new RPG exclusive and possibly a heft expansion to a Splatoon 2. Do you think it's Sales would be affected.
Also my dumb question, what team do you root for in the MLB? Always wanted to ask ;P
"It might do great but could also sell less when it's badly reviewed utter trash" goes for about every game. labo is something new, which is alread highly suspicious. and it's screaming: "look at me, I am a toy!" That's odd.
i'd like to be optimistic here and say it will be limited only by the amount of boxes produced and they won't and can't start with huge numbers.
but it will drive console sales as in: people will buy a switch for labo.
Benji i was wondering with what you know do you think GOW could be Sony biggest opening for the USA ?
I'm not certain, although bigger debuts for the Switch versions of Wii U games seems to me a safe bet. First party Nintendo on Switch is as good as it gets really.
And I'm a Padre guy. Best stadium, great beers, I love an underdog and hate myself a little bit while I'm at it. Perfect team for me.
Yup.
Add things like 4K RDR to the list of reasons why Xbox One should continue to do well this year.
March data doesn't release for two weeks yet.
March data doesn't release for two weeks yet.
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When you have a concept that unique and ripe for mainstream penetration I just don't see how it wouldn't be a huge boon for the Switch over the long haul. Whether or not it will be a kicker right out the gate depends entirely on the traction and free advertising it gains on TV programs as it seems they are keeping their advertising low key and of course how many units they actually produce. I expect there will be shortages as nintendo always tends to be hyper conservative with their initial product shipments these days. But over all I expect it to drive a lot of HW sales this year before all is done.
Rooting for the underdog is how sports were meant to be. We are cut from the same cloth except I'm an east coaster so its Red Sox for life for me. I will take umbrage with "best stadium" though. Fenway Park forever!
we also have to expect a lot of double and triple dipping because little timmy, who was socialized by touchscreens, wasn't able to properly put together actual physical pieces, fucked up the damn piano and got a horrible tantrum. So daddy just sighed deeply, thought of the pros and cons of birth control and finally bought that stupid thing again. and again.