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March 2018 NPD (U.S. Hardware) Predictions - Closes Tuesday, April 17th

Jimmyfenix

Jimmyfenix

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,231
To back up Benji's point about how GoW will do outside america here is what sony said before last E3

"The God of War reboot from Sony's Santa Monica studio will be central to this – its new, more narrative-focused, open-world approach with a grizzled, bearded Kratos coming as a direct result of Sony's new global thinking. While always popular in North America, past games in the series just didn't do it for players elsewhere. "It's a franchise that has historically acutely underperformed in Europe," Ryan says. "Hack and slash games tend to not do so well in Europe, so the narrative this time around will make a big difference. European gamers love narrative games. And Singstar."

i expect it to outsell past GoW games with ease in europe but it will be a tough fight with UC4 for sure but marketing has been on point in the UK since i see it every day on the sports channels
 
Ryng™

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Imo, this is what i believe the TOP 10 best selling game in 2018 NPD gonna be:

Guaranteed:
  • Call of Duty Black Ops IIII: As always COD is gonna be big, and Black Ops IIII won't be different. It's easy gonna be either #1 or #2
  • Red Read Redempion 2: This is the other game guaranteed for the TOP 2 in my opinion. It's actually hard to say who is gonna be first between Red Dead Redempion and Black Ops.
  • Battlefield 2018: This game is a contendent for the TOP 3 for sure, assuming it really release in 2018. It's between Battlefield and Far Cry imo.
  • Far Cry 5: 2 years ago there was no way Far Cry could have been TOP 3 in the NPD chart, but right now the series is BIG, and Far Cry 5 had an hell of a launch, not to mention it releases very early this year. So it may definitively be TOP 3.
  • Super Smash Bros. 5 : Even if NPD does not include Nintendo digital sales, there is NO WAY it won't make the TOP 10. Smash Bros is absolutely huge, expecially at launch, Brawl was number #4 in 2008 and Smash 4 was #6 in 2014, with Nintendo series all breaking absurd record, it's a guaranteed TOP 10, maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe even TOP 5, but i doubt it will withouth digital sales (Nintendo digital is not big but it surely hurt not having it) and with only a few months
  • Monster Hunter World: It had an hell of launch, and it was also undershipped, so is showing legs... no way it doesn't make it.
  • NBA and Madden: always makes the TOP 10, no way they won't this year too.
  • GTA V : well, it's pretty easy to expect GTA still in TOP 10 this year too... even with RDR2 i doubt legs will drop so hard.

Possible:
  • God of War 4: I think this is the most likely to make the TOP 10, but let's not forget that GOW3 didn't chart in the NPD list of the 2010 best selling games, and even if i expect a bigger launch, this year there are so many games that i believe even a big game like GOW can have an hard time charting. Also, if Sony makes a bundle, it will help the sales, but it won't count in the NPD chart
  • Spiderman: I think it will be big, no doubt, and Spiderman games also charted in TOP 5 some times, but those were others times, withouth the big titles like COD/BF/GTA (or better say, there were not as huge as today), in general the industry was not as big as today. But it could make it.
  • Pokémon Switch: i think is fair to say it has at least a chance, but really really tiny, assuming it release this year, because NPD count both SKUs separate, so it will be very hard for it to chart. Of course it would be like TOP 5 at worst or maybe TOP 3 if both SKUs were combined, but that's doesn't look the case so...
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
Imo, this is what i believe the TOP 10 best selling game in 2018 NPD gonna be:

Guaranteed:
  • Call of Duty Black Ops IIII: As always COD is gonna be big, and Black Ops IIII won't be different. It's easy gonna be either #1 or #2
  • Red Read Redempion 2: This is the other game guaranteed for the TOP 2 in my opinion. It's actually hard to say who is gonna be first between Red Dead Redempion and Black Ops.
  • Battlefield 2018: This game is a contendent for the TOP 3 for sure, assuming it really release in 2018. It's between Battlefield and Far Cry imo.
  • Far Cry 5: 2 years ago there was no way Far Cry could have been TOP 3 in the NPD chart, but right now the series is BIG, and Far Cry 5 had an hell of a launch, not to mention it releases very early this year. So it may definitively be TOP 3.
  • Super Smash Bros. 5 : Even if NPD does not include Nintendo digital sales, there is NO WAY it won't make the TOP 10. Smash Bros is absolutely huge, expecially at launch, Brawl was number #4 in 2008 and Smash 4 was #6 in 2014, with Nintendo series all breaking absurd record, it's a guaranteed TOP 10, maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe even TOP 5, but i doubt it will withouth digital sales (Nintendo digital is not big but it surely hurt not having it) and with only a few months
  • Monster Hunter World: It had an hell of launch, and it was also undershipped, so is showing legs... no way it doesn't make it.
  • NBA and Madden: always makes the TOP 10, no way they won't this year too.
  • GTA V : well, it's pretty easy to expect GTA still in TOP 10 this year too... even with RDR2 i doubt legs will drop so hard.

Possible:
  • God of War 4: I think this is the most likely to make the TOP 10, but let's not forget that GOW3 didn't chart in the NPD list of the 2010 best selling games, and even if i expect a bigger launch, this year there are so many games that i believe even a big game like GOW can have an hard time charting. Also, if Sony makes a bundle, it will help the sales, but it won't count in the NPD chart
  • Spiderman: I think it will be big, no doubt, and Spiderman games also charted in TOP 5 some times, but those were others times, withouth the big titles like COD/BF/GTA (or better say, there were not as huge as today), in general the industry was not as big as today. But it could make it.
  • Pokémon Switch: i think is fair to say it has at least a chance, but really really tiny, assuming it release this year, because NPD count both SKUs separate, so it will be very hard for it to chart. Of course it would be like TOP 5 at worst or maybe TOP 3 if both SKUs were combined, but that's doesn't look the case so...
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MH:W won't make it in my opinion. Sales are already starting to slow down a lot and if your product can't chart in November/December, then Top10 will be very hard to reach.

I agree with most of the rest of your list. Did you think about the Divison 2 ?
 
Ryng™

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Lelouch0612 said:
MH:W won't make it in my opinion. Sales are already starting to slow down a lot and if your product can't chart in November/December, then Top10 will be very hard to reach.

I agree with most of the rest of your list. Did you think about the Divison 2 ?
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The Division 2 this year though? Isn't that unlucky? And i also think that as literally every big games this gen, The Division 2 will see a drop compared to the first one, even with great sales.

Actually id not that unlucky for a game that doesn't chart in November/December be in TOP 10. Like, we just talked about The Division and that's a pretty good example, it literally disappear after the first half of the year, and it was still TOP 3 in 2016 thanks a very big launch.

Ghost Recon too, it was #7 in the 2017 chart even if it didn't chart in November and December.

Also, did Monster Hunter World really dopped that hard? I know it had a drop in the Japanes charts, but that's one market.
 
Mory Dunz

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,358
top 10 will be competitive.

I don't see spider man making it.

I think GoW will.
but then if pokemon exists...
 
Raijinto

Raijinto

self-requested ban
Banned
Oct 28, 2017
10,091
Far Cry 5, CoD Black Ops IIII, Battlefield whatever, Smash, Pokemon(?), GoW, FIFA (maybe it's a WC year but USA didn't qualify IDK with this one), Madden, RDR2, GTAV.

That seems possible to me. Good a guess as any..?
 
Protome

Protome

Member
Oct 27, 2017
15,677
Soony Xbone Uhh said:
What are you guys talking about? Give me a link please.
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So, I take back my "completely correct" comment. VGChartz is sourced on the Halo 4 box but it's not about sales it's just a vague "Most anticipated game" quote.

I jumped the gun because the link I found had broke images and the poster made it sound like more than it was.

Images: 1 and 2
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
The Division 2 this year though? Isn't that unlucky? And i also think that as literally every big games this gen, The Division 2 will see a drop compared to the first one, even with great sales.

Actually id not that unlucky for a game that doesn't chart in November/December be in TOP 10. Like, we just talked about The Division and that's a pretty good example, it literally disappear after the first half of the year, and it was still TOP 3 in 2016 thanks a very big launch.

Ghost Recon too, it was #7 in the 2017 chart even if it didn't chart in November and December.

Also, did Monster Hunter World really dopped that hard? I know it had a drop in the Japanes charts, but that's one market.
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Ubi is on a roll right now, I would not bet against one of their titles this gen.

MH:W is no longer in the top 40 UK chart. You only needed 3.5k units to make it in the top10 this week...

The game is a sucess but they failed to update it regularly to keep the userbase engaged.
 

Soony Xbone Uhh

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account
Banned
Oct 27, 2017
3,156
Protome said:
So, I take back my "completely correct" comment. VGChartz is sourced on the Halo 4 box but it's not about sales it's just a vague "Most anticipated game" quote.

I jumped the gun because the link I found had broke images and the poster made it sound like more than it was.

Images: 1 and 2
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Okay yeah. That's the cover art i know
HALO_4_DVD_NTSC_f.jpg
 
RexNovis

RexNovis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,152
Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
Imo, this is what i believe the TOP 10 best selling game in 2018 NPD gonna be:

Guaranteed:
  • Call of Duty Black Ops IIII: As always COD is gonna be big, and Black Ops IIII won't be different. It's easy gonna be either #1 or #2
  • Red Read Redempion 2: This is the other game guaranteed for the TOP 2 in my opinion. It's actually hard to say who is gonna be first between Red Dead Redempion and Black Ops.
  • Battlefield 2018: This game is a contendent for the TOP 3 for sure, assuming it really release in 2018. It's between Battlefield and Far Cry imo.
  • Far Cry 5: 2 years ago there was no way Far Cry could have been TOP 3 in the NPD chart, but right now the series is BIG, and Far Cry 5 had an hell of a launch, not to mention it releases very early this year. So it may definitively be TOP 3.
  • Super Smash Bros. 5 : Even if NPD does not include Nintendo digital sales, there is NO WAY it won't make the TOP 10. Smash Bros is absolutely huge, expecially at launch, Brawl was number #4 in 2008 and Smash 4 was #6 in 2014, with Nintendo series all breaking absurd record, it's a guaranteed TOP 10, maaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaybe even TOP 5, but i doubt it will withouth digital sales (Nintendo digital is not big but it surely hurt not having it) and with only a few months
  • Monster Hunter World: It had an hell of launch, and it was also undershipped, so is showing legs... no way it doesn't make it.
  • NBA and Madden: always makes the TOP 10, no way they won't this year too.
  • GTA V : well, it's pretty easy to expect GTA still in TOP 10 this year too... even with RDR2 i doubt legs will drop so hard.

Possible:
  • God of War 4: I think this is the most likely to make the TOP 10, but let's not forget that GOW3 didn't chart in the NPD list of the 2010 best selling games, and even if i expect a bigger launch, this year there are so many games that i believe even a big game like GOW can have an hard time charting. Also, if Sony makes a bundle, it will help the sales, but it won't count in the NPD chart
  • Spiderman: I think it will be big, no doubt, and Spiderman games also charted in TOP 5 some times, but those were others times, withouth the big titles like COD/BF/GTA (or better say, there were not as huge as today), in general the industry was not as big as today. But it could make it.
  • Pokémon Switch: i think is fair to say it has at least a chance, but really really tiny, assuming it release this year, because NPD count both SKUs separate, so it will be very hard for it to chart. Of course it would be like TOP 5 at worst or maybe TOP 3 if both SKUs were combined, but that's doesn't look the case so...
Click to expand...
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I sincerely doubt Monster Hunter will make it (as much as I'd love it to) and I'd be shocked if Spider-Man doesn't. Spider-man as a brand is just way too strong for it not to sell absolute gang busters especially WW.

I don't really see God of War making the top 10 either. There are an awful lot of multopkatfkrm heavy hitters coming out this year and historically the franchise hasn't quite met the same bar. I think this one will do better than past entries but I'm doubtful that it will be a massive breakout success on a level that puts it in line with these other games.
 

Deleted member 3017

User requested account closure
Banned
Oct 25, 2017
17,653
Nintendo counts each version of Pokemon (X / Y, Sun / Moon, etc.) as a separate title, but Smash 3DS and Smash Wii U are counted as a single game. It's weird.
 
Ryng™

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
Lelouch0612 said:
Ubi is on a roll right now, I would not bet against one of their titles this gen.

MH:W is no longer in the top 40 UK chart. You only needed 3.5k units to make it in the top10 this week...

The game is a sucess but they failed to update it regularly to keep the userbase engaged.
Click to expand...
Click to shrink...

I love Ubisoft and i know it, most times i'm optimist with his titles and when i do they tend to perform well, just to be clear, i was saying that Far Cry 5 would have been a BIG success since 2014 (after Far Cry 4 launch), glad i was not disappointed. :P

But when i say The Division 2 won't be as big as The Division (still with good sales) i'm super confident about it. I liked The Division but the trusth is that after a big launch the popoularity of this game dropped. HARD. I just can't see The Division 2 being as big.


Btw, even if legs doesn't look too good for Monster Hunter, it still did way too good at launch, i don't see it not charting.
 
Lelouch0612

Lelouch0612

Member
Oct 25, 2017
21,200
Ryng Manuel Tolu said:
I love Ubisoft and i know it, most times i'm optimist with his titles and when i do they tend to perform well, just to be clear, i was saying that Far Cry 5 would have been a BIG success since 2014 (after Far Cry 4 launch), glad i was not disappointed. :P

But when i say The Division 2 won't be as big as The Division (still with good sales) i'm super confident about it. I liked The Division but the trusth is that after a big launch the popoularity of this game dropped. HARD. I just can't see The Division 2 being as big.


Btw, even if legs doesn't look too good for Monster Hunter, it still did way too good at launch, i don't see it not charting.
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If we go by your estimation of Switch HW sales, Mario Kart could outsell MHW (it should be around 2m).
 
Mory Dunz

Mory Dunz

Member
Oct 25, 2017
36,358
MatPiscatella said:
Shrug.
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saw before the edit.
wasn't an insult, I just didn't know

eh pokemon makes sense not combining.

I'm more curious about general criteria for remasters.
iirc, npd combined, MK8, TLOU, Smash 4.

but not Pokken DX (or is it?).

is it based on if the old version is still selling a non-negligible amount? For instance, TPHD wasn't combined with TP
 
Ryng™

Ryng™

Member
Nov 2, 2017
3,641
Italy
RexNovis said:
I sincerely doubt Monster Hunter will make it (as much as I'd love it to) and I'd be shocked if Spider-Man doesn't. Spider-man as a brand is just way too strong for it not to sell absolute gang busters especially WW.

I don't really see God of War making the top 10 either. There are an awful lot of multopkatfkrm heavy hitters coming out this year and historically the franchise hasn't quite met the same bar. I think this one will do better than past entries but I'm doubtful that it will be a massive breakout success on a level that puts it in line with these other games.
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We'll see i guess. I think MHW will easy do it. Spiderman is a big brand, but it doesn't always translate in big sales for his product (i mean yes it will be big, how much big tho? That's the question).
But yes is totally possible for Spiderman being TOP 10.

Lelouch0612 said:
If we go by your estimation of Switch HW sales, Mario Kart could outsell MHW (it should be around 2m).
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I get where you are coming from but:

1) i believe MHW will do more than 2 million
2) Even if Mario Kart 8 outsell Monster Hunter, NPD chart doesn't work this way. There are digital sales which doesn't count for Mario Kart (may not be big but still hurt not having digital sales).
 

Coulomb_Barrier

Banned
Apr 9, 2018
368
Golvellius said:
Matter of opinion.
For me, the Gears saga wipes the floor with anything Sony's "talented" studios have ever put out, and I consider it disrespectful to act as if MS cannot produce great single player games.
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Oh come on. Gears? Funnily enough, Gears older entries in the series are a bit like the first couple God of War games; good for the time, but the world has moved on a lot since then, certainly in terms of narrative.

Both were big, dumb fun. At least God of War has been brought up to 2018 levels of narrative quality, gameplay, and graphics. Unfortunately I am certain Gears will never enjoy such a similar renaissance.
 
JesusBuiltMyHotRod

JesusBuiltMyHotRod

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Banned
Apr 13, 2018
203
Golvellius said:
Matter of opinion.
For me, the Gears saga wipes the floor with anything Sony's "talented" studios have ever put out, and I consider it disrespectful to act as if MS cannot produce great single player games.
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Yikes, no one said they cannot make great Sp games, re-read the conversation, context is important. As for the rest...that is an extremely minority opinion which you are entitled too.
 
JesusBuiltMyHotRod

JesusBuiltMyHotRod

Banned for alt account
Banned
Apr 13, 2018
203
Rndom Grenadez said:
TLOU sold 7 million lifetime on 80 million PS3's. I don't think the sequel will sell nearly half of that I'm a week.

No doubt it'll be a big debut. It already has at least 1 customer with me, but 3.3 is a ridiculous number to do in a week.
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Hmm pretty sure TLOU is well above that now, and Ps4 is in a far different spot then Ps3 was, plus GOW has far more mass appeal imo, the game is going to be big, real big.
 
RexNovis

RexNovis

Member
Oct 25, 2017
4,152
Coulomb_Barrier said:
Yes. I'm guessing you're more of an EA or MS type of guy when it comes to the type of games you enjoy. Don't let that cloud your judgement.
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Coulomb_Barrier said:
Oh come on. Gears? Funnily enough, Gears older entries in the series are a bit like the first couple God of War games; good for the time, but the world has moved on a lot since then, certainly in terms of narrative.

Both were big, dumb fun. At least God of War has been brought up to 2018 levels of narrative quality, gameplay, and graphics. Unfortunately I am certain Gears will never enjoy such a similar renaissance.
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Do some of y'all just not read the shit you post before you hit the button? Straight up getting second hand embarrassment reading some of the stuff in here. Telling others not to let their (very obviously imagined) biases while proudly proclaiming your own is the sort of projecting I expect to see out of the modern political climate not a sales thread. Irony. Its a helluva thing. And for the record no you'd be wrong in your assumption. Perhaps itd be for the best for you to take a break from posting ...
 
Deader2818

Deader2818

Member
Oct 25, 2017
714
New Jersey
I can say this much, GOW has destroyed whatever Gamestop was projecting. Reserves are 200%+ to its reserve goal.

Labo on the other had is really trending blow exceptions and there just isn't enough awareness of it. COULD seem some traction if it gets popular on youtube and twitch but right now I don't see it doing well to start off with.
 

Ventilation Stick

Alt account
Banned
Apr 2, 2018
283
Deader2818 said:
I can say this much, GOW has destroyed whatever Gamestop was projecting. Reserves are 200%+ to its reserve goal.

Labo on the other had is really trending blow exceptions and there just isn't enough awareness of it. COULD seem some traction if it gets popular on youtube and twitch but right now I don't see it doing well to start off with.
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Isn't labo a toy?
 
MesaEterna

MesaEterna

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Member
Oct 28, 2017
906
Is there any possibility that Nintendo starts sharing digital numbers someday? They're the only ones who don't do it right?
 
JesusBuiltMyHotRod

JesusBuiltMyHotRod

Banned for alt account
Banned
Apr 13, 2018
203
Deader2818 said:
I can say this much, GOW has destroyed whatever Gamestop was projecting. Reserves are 200%+ to its reserve goal.

Labo on the other had is really trending blow exceptions and there just isn't enough awareness of it. COULD seem some traction if it gets popular on youtube and twitch but right now I don't see it doing well to start off with.
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Holy shit, thread worhy?
 
Cladyclad

Cladyclad

Banned
Nov 16, 2017
459
No bs.

I work with a guy that's like 42 years old. Don't play videogames, but love sci-fi, comics, and all the nerd shit. He said "have u heard of that GOW game"

I said "yeah"

He was like "man I don't even play videogames but I would buy a PS4 for that game"

I just burst out laughing. Mind u this dude don't watch tv or nothing. I should asked him how he came across the ad
 
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