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MLB 2018 Season |OT| Introducing Shohei OhtAAAni

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captive

captive

Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,005
Houston
17 Seconds said:
i mean you're basically putting stock into clutch and other similar baseball myths. the "this team finds ways to win" narrative isn't real. it always feels that way when you're watching a team get all the big hits and winning a bunch of close games in a short period of time, but the fact that it's happened that way so far doesn't make it any more likely to continue. it's outdated baseball rhetoric that has no evidence of being real.

I'm also not saying it has no chance of continuing for an entire season. and if it does, they deserve a certain level of credit for it. the 2016 rangers didn't "deserve" to have that kind of success, but it still earned them a lottery ticket into the playoffs, and the world series would have been very real.
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you can't take years past and apply it to predict current season. Yes each season itself is a small sample size, over the course of baseball history, but during the season the only thing that matters is how that season is playing out. For instance, last year HRs were off the charts to the point people were assuming the balls were juiced, yet this year offense is done and strikeouts are way up. And in fact No hitters and no hitter bids are up this year over last year.
But every year there's teams that are "doing things that shouldnt happen" and "should level out over the course of the season" As you mentioned the 2016 rangers were ridiculous in one run games. Last year the astros were ridiculous offense from the 7th inning and on, people in houston, sports writers/radio hosts were saying they can't ive by that, its not going to sustain, yet it did the whole season. Same thing with 2 outs and RISP they were ridiculous in those situations last year.
 
nnex

nnex

Member
Oct 27, 2017
320
Frozenprince said:
Lol fucking just checked the Reds game stats.

Of fucking course Harvey is fixed.

Of course he is.
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Yeah, it was a strong start. It could have easily gone sideways early with the bases-loaded, 1-out jam in the 1st, but he got out of it and settled in after that. Fastballs were sitting 93-96, and he was changing eye level effectively. He was getting getting tons of weak contact from righties too. You really can't even hold the home run against him, since Moran managed to tattoo a ball that was up around his eyes.
 
TheeFanatic

TheeFanatic

Member
Oct 26, 2017
16,763
It was a fun listen on 710 espn radio this morning. One of the topics was "Is it time to send Puig elsewhere?"
Verdugo is waiting so patiently to come back to the roster
 
Sephzilla

Sephzilla

Herald of Stoptimus Crime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,493
Brewers are going off on the Diamondbacks again. Shaw and Aguilar with 3 RBIs each so far
 
RampagingSoul

RampagingSoul

Member
Oct 25, 2017
2,767
Boyer coming in to try and take the Royals to extras with his 11.71 ERA.

This will go well!

EDIT: Boyer got through it somehow, thanks to defense.
 
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Sephzilla

Sephzilla

Herald of Stoptimus Crime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,493
BREWERS WIN!

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Best start after 50 games in franchise history!
 
perfectchaos007

perfectchaos007

It's Happening
Member
Oct 25, 2017
12,249
Texas
I love how the Astros now have two guys in their starting batting rotation that are under 5'8".

We're changing the definition of small ball
 

17 Seconds

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,589
Sephzilla said:
The team winning games even though their offense is injured and not hitting well is a positive. They're finding ways to win games besides just out slugging everyone. And, again, they're doing it in a year where the National League looks really deep and the NL Central right now is the most competitive division in baseball.

If this was some team like the Red Sox, Yankees, or Dodgers people would be praising them being able to win games they shouldn't be winning. But because it's the small market Brewers apparently they're just a fluke.
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you're just ignoring everything i'm saying. yes, it's a positive that they've been able to win games by not outscoring their opponents by a lot. the positivie is that they've banked a lot of wins, and those count! the positive is NOT that it's a definable skill that is likely to continue. it could, sure, but the fact that it's happened so far doesn't mean it's more likely to.

i'm not going to really keep doing this. it's awesome for the brewers that they're winning all these games. it means they have a much better chance at the playoffs than they did going into the season. but if you think that winning a bunch of close games is a long-term strategy for success, then i'm not going to sit here and keep explaining basic 21st century baseball ideology to you.

teams that are outscoring their opponents by a lot of runs are more likely to be good in the future (assuming that run difference continues) than teams who are getting by on winning all the close games. this is not a new concept. at all.
 

17 Seconds

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,589
captive said:
you can't take years past and apply it to predict current season. Yes each season itself is a small sample size, over the course of baseball history, but during the season the only thing that matters is how that season is playing out. For instance, last year HRs were off the charts to the point people were assuming the balls were juiced, yet this year offense is done and strikeouts are way up. And in fact No hitters and no hitter bids are up this year over last year.
But every year there's teams that are "doing things that shouldnt happen" and "should level out over the course of the season" As you mentioned the 2016 rangers were ridiculous in one run games. Last year the astros were ridiculous offense from the 7th inning and on, people in houston, sports writers/radio hosts were saying they can't ive by that, its not going to sustain, yet it did the whole season. Same thing with 2 outs and RISP they were ridiculous in those situations last year.
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i've said several times that it could continue for a full season, that's why i kept referencing the rangers. i'm just saying that it's unlikely to continue, and the fact that things can last for a full season (or more) doesn't make it a real skill that the players are in control of. baseball is an extremely random sport, and all kinds of wacky shit can last for an entire season. the rangers didn't win 95 games with a +15 run differential or whatever because they actually had a skill to get better in close moments. it just worked out that way. they deserve some amount of credit for it, but it was never going to last forever, and they regressed as expected the next season.
 
Sephzilla

Sephzilla

Herald of Stoptimus Crime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,493
17 Seconds said:
you're just ignoring everything i'm saying. yes, it's a positive that they've been able to win games by not outscoring their opponents by a lot. the positivie is that they've banked a lot of wins, and those count! the positive is NOT that it's a definable skill that is likely to continue. it could, sure, but the fact that it's happened so far doesn't mean it's more likely to.

i'm not going to really keep doing this. it's awesome for the brewers that they're winning all these games. it means they have a much better chance at the playoffs than they did going into the season. but if you think that winning a bunch of close games is a long-term strategy for success, then i'm not going to sit here and keep explaining basic 21st century baseball ideology to you.

teams that are outscoring their opponents by a lot of runs are more likely to be good in the future (assuming that run difference continues) than teams who are getting by on winning all the close games. this is not a new concept. at all.
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Every team that makes the playoffs has to be able to win close games. I also think you aren't factoring in how tight the NL Central has already been this year.

The point myself and a couple of other people are trying to make is that it's very likely that the Brewers run differential and all of the stats surrounding that are likely to improve. They're going to be getting one of their best starting pitchers back at some point this year and some of their better offensive players are going to eventually be returning to the lineup. The fact that they're the best team in the NL right now despite some of the holes due to injury is a sign that this team actually has some depth.
 
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17 Seconds

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,589
Sephzilla said:
Every team that makes the playoffs has to be able to win close games. I also think you aren't factoring in how tight the NL Central has already been this year.

The point myself and a couple of other people are trying to make is that it's very likely that the Brewers run differential and all of the stats surrounding that are likely to improve. They're going to be getting one of their best starting pitchers back at some point this year and some of their better offensive players are going to eventually be returning to the lineup. The fact that they're the best team in the NL right now despite some of the holes due to injury is a sign that this team actually has some depth.
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there isn't really any evidence to suggest that their run differential is going to improve. thames will just push out aguolar, who is better. braun will be back, but he hasn't missed much time, and may not even be good anymore. nelson will return, but that will just mitigate some of the likely regression from guys like chacin and guerra.

i'm not going top keep arguing (famous last words). the breweers have been great so far this season in the one category that counts the most. they've got a head start in the playoff race, and it should have brewers fans excited. but when i see someone talk about how the breewers could be "scary" if they make a trade, i just have to wonder what roster people are looking at. nothing about their teams suggests they're anywhere near a pwerhouse team, or even an elite team going forward. just be happy with the wins.
 
Sephzilla

Sephzilla

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Oct 25, 2017
17,493
The Brewers are 3rd in all of baseball for team ERA right now and just swept one of the two teams ahead of them. Adding another arm to the rotation would result in making one of the best pitching staffs in baseball better, and pitching is what ultimately carries you into and through the playoffs. Alternatively adding another bat to the lineup could end up pushing their run differential upwards and improve the offense as a whole. And even then you don't need a top 5 or top 10 offense if your pitching staff only surrenders 3 runs a game. So saying the Brewers could become really scary with one good trade really doesn't seem like a stretch
 

17 Seconds

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,589
Sephzilla said:
The Brewers are 3rd in all of baseball for team ERA right now and just swept one of the two teams ahead of them. Adding another arm to the rotation would result in making one of the best pitching staffs in baseball better, and pitching is what ultimately carries you into and through the playoffs. Alternatively adding another bat to the lineup could end up pushing their run differential upwards and improve the offense as a whole. And even then you don't need a top 5 or top 10 offense if your pitching staff only surrenders 3 runs a game. So saying the Brewers could become really scary with one good trade really doesn't seem like a stretch
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whatever man, you keep ignoring everything i say and just change the subject into something else. if you want to put more stock into a 50 game stretch of sequencing than actually looking at the roster itself, and seeing it for what it really is, then go ahead. good luck. i don't know why baseball fans insist on not being able to see reality through small sample sizes and variance, but here we are.
 
Sephzilla

Sephzilla

Herald of Stoptimus Crime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,493
17 Seconds said:
whatever man, you keep ignoring everything i say and just change the subject into something else. if you want to put more stock into a 50 game stretch of sequencing than actually looking at the roster itself, and seeing it for what it really is, then go ahead. good luck. i don't know why baseball fans insist on not being able to see reality through small sample sizes and variance, but here we are.
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The only stat you keep pushing is run differential though. Meanwhile I'm trying to show all of the other reasons why Milwaukee is a legit team.
 

17 Seconds

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,589
Sephzilla said:
The only stat you keep pushing is run differential though ...
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why am i even talking to you if you're going to ignore all the shit i've referenced. i've pointed out several ways they're due for regression. it's like talking to a brick wall. i remember you doing he same thing last year and then disappearing afterwards. a 50 game stretch of baseball is a tiny sample size, and the fact that've accumulated a great record via close wins and over performing veterans should not come close to changing the outlook that the team had going into the season, which was a .500ish team.

of course, the brewers could win like 95 games this season (because baseball) and then you'll still be saying "i told you they were dominant", while learning absolutely nothing about the sport.
 
Sephzilla

Sephzilla

Herald of Stoptimus Crime
Member
Oct 25, 2017
17,493
17 Seconds said:
why am i even talking to you if you're going to ignore all the shit i've referenced. i've pointed out several ways they're due for regression. it's like talking to a brick wall. i remember you doing he same thing last year and then disappearing afterwards. a 50 game stretch of baseball is a tiny sample size, and the fact that've accumulated a great record via close wins and over performing veterans should not come close to changing the outlook that the team had going into the season, which was a .500ish team.

of course, the brewers could win like 95 games this season (because baseball) and then you'll still be saying "i told you they were dominant", while learning absolutely nothing about the sport.
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Outside of run differential your whole argument comes down to stuff like "clutch isn't real" and "but some of them are old".

Also I'm not even sure what you're talking about because I supported the Brewers all of last season. Plus I think you need to dial down the aggressiveness a little
 

17 Seconds

Banned
Oct 26, 2017
3,589
Sephzilla said:
Outside of run differential your whole argument comes down to stuff like "clutch isn't real" and "but some of them are old".

Also I'm not even sure what you're talking about because I supported the Brewers all of last season. Plus I think you need to dial down the aggressiveness a little
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if you think that's all my argument is, then you're either not reading my posts (they are walls of text, i admit) or you're unwilling to accept basic logic and how it applies to baseball. the brewers have one of the best records in baseball, but do not have one of the best rosters. it is very easy to see that, and i listed several different reasons to help. if you can't see that, it's because you don't want to understand the sport.
 
Caja 117

Caja 117

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,467
Sephzilla said:
Outside of run differential your whole argument comes down to stuff like "clutch isn't real" and "but some of them are old".

Also I'm not even sure what you're talking about because I supported the Brewers all of last season. Plus I think you need to dial down the aggressiveness a little
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Everyone knows Clutch is a real thing. That cant be denied. That and also momentun!!
 
mjp2417

mjp2417

Member
Nov 2, 2017
9,365
The Yankees are going to need to solidify this starting rotation by the trade deadline before we start comparing them to the '98 team
 
Caja 117

Caja 117

Member
Oct 25, 2017
1,467
there is rumor going on about about another Dominican Player that was doing steroid, this one plays in the Central division of the America League. The source was the same that hinted of Cano before it went public,
 
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