IHS: Xbox One at 39.1m consoles sold globally

pswii60 · Jun 13, 2018

I'm seeing this estimate from IHS repeated all over the place right now.

A few examples:

BBC said:
At the end of March, 39.1 million Xbox Ones had been purchased worldwide - encompassing all versions of the games machine - according to market research firm IHS Markit. By contrast, 76.6 million units of the various PlayStation 4 consoles had been bought.

CNBC said:
There were 39.1 million Xbox One consoles in the market versus 76.6 million PS4s at the end of March 2018, according to IHS Markit data

Wall Street Journal said:
Microsoft's machine has trailed rival Sony Corp.'s PlayStation 4 in sales largely because of a lack of exclusive hits, analysts say. The Xbox One had a global install base of 39.1 million units at the end of March, compared with 76.6 million for the PlayStation 4, according to estimates from IHS Markit.

Who is IHS? And why is everyone suddenly quoting their numbers? Does anyone have a link to the source data and when it was dated?

As for the 76.6 for PS4: we already know that PS4 has reached 79m in April, based on official numbers from Sony - was that sold to retailers or consumers? Although I find it difficult to believe there are over 2m PS4 sitting idly on shelves. And when is this IHS data from?

EDIT: Sorry, the IHS data is to end of March 2018 - it says so in the bloody tweet (I blame lack of sleep due to a newborn!)

Deleted member 13077 · Jun 13, 2018

360 was at around 40 million in 2010, which was at a similar point in it's lifecycle, so that seems about right.

v_iHuGi · Jun 13, 2018

Feorax said:
360 was at around 40 million in 2010, which was at a similar point in it's lifecycle, so that seems about right.

360 blew up with Kinect and 360S if I remember correctly.

MrTired · Jun 13, 2018

Matt, MatPiscatella, ZhugeEX can any of you comment on the validity of this number?

pswii60 · Jun 13, 2018

v_iHuGi said:
360 blew up with Kinect and 360S if I remember correctly.

It did indeed. Kinect was a huge success in expanding 360's reach, but it was also a total fad (not that Microsoft realised). And 360S moved away from the RROD fears with a much better built piece of hardware.

MrTired said:
Matt, MatPiscatella, ZhugeEX can any of you comment on the validity of this number?

Zhugex was predicting around 35-36m at the beginning of this year IIRC. but then EA's estimates confused everyone. Would be interesting to understand more about IHS Markit's credibility and their methods.

Alex840 · Jun 13, 2018

So still 2:1, sounds about right.

Knight613 · Jun 13, 2018

I could certainly believe 39 million consoles shipped.

I don't know that I'd believe 39 million consoles sold to consumers.

ArmGunar · Jun 13, 2018

Knight613 said:
I could certainly believe 39 million consoles shipped.

I don't know that I'd believe 39 million consoles sold to consumers.

Same

bombshell · Jun 13, 2018

MrTired said:
Matt, MatPiscatella, ZhugeEX can any of you comment on the validity of this number?

Zhuge already said 35m sold by end of 2017. There's no way they sold 4.1m in the quiet Q1, but it could be realistic number if its shipped. That would need to be compared to 79m PS4 instead of 76.6m.

Elven_Star · Jun 13, 2018

That makes Switch's numbers all the more impressive.

Era of not Yakuza · Jun 13, 2018

if they are using the term Installed base correctly this is the number of consoles that are functioning and been used. If someone already has a Xbox One and then trade for a Xbox One S this does not change the install base.

KillerMan91 · Jun 13, 2018

pswii60 said:
As for the 76.6 for PS4: we already know that PS4 has reached 79m in April, based on official numbers from Sony - was that sold to retailers or consumers? Although I find it difficult to believe there are over 2m PS4 sitting idly on shelves. And when is this IHS data from?

EDIT: Sorry, the IHS data is to end of March 2018 - it says so in the bloody tweet (I blame lack of sleep due to a newborn!)

it was shipped. Also PS4 has over 2 million units in the shelves pretty much all the time. At the end of December sell trough for PS4 was 73.6 million and shipped 76.5 million. Almost 3 million difference.

MrTired · Jun 13, 2018

bombshell said:
Zhuge already said 35m sold by end of 2017. There's no way they sold 4.1m in the quiet Q1, but it could be realistic number if its shipped. That would need to be compared to 79m PS4 instead of 76.6m.

That what I thought but I wanted people with greater insight to confirm.

pswii60 · Jun 13, 2018

The era of Luigi said:
if they are using the therm Install base correctly this is the number of consoles that are functioning and been used. If someone already has a Xbox One and than trade for a Xbox One S this does not change the install base

It does if the retailer then sells the traded Xbox One, which they probably will.

KillerMan91 said:
it was shipped. Also PS4 has over 2 million units in the shelves pretty much all the time. At the end of December sell trough for PS4 was 73.6 million and shipped 76.5 million. Almost 3 million difference.

Do you happen to have a source for that?

InquisitorAles · Jun 13, 2018

The era of Luigi said:
if they are using the therm Install base correctly this is the number of consoles that are functioning and been used. If someone already has a Xbox One and than trade for a Xbox One S this does not change the install base

So you mean PS4 numbers can be lower as well since someone can trade PS4 for PS4 Slim or Pro?

Mory Dunz · Jun 13, 2018

if accurate that's only around an average of like 9m a year.

wtf

Protome · Jun 13, 2018

Elven_Star said:
That makes Switch's numbers all the more impressive.

Yeah, if the Switch keeps the pace Nintendo is expecting it'll overtake the XB1 in sales next financial year. With 3+ years less time on the market. Bonkers.

Era of not Yakuza · Jun 13, 2018

pswii60 said:
It does if the retailer then sells the traded Xbox One, which they probably will.

You are talking about total sales, in this case either way the number would be accounted in the data.

ZhugeEX · Jun 13, 2018

pswii60 said:
I
Who is IHS? And why is everyone suddenly quoting their numbers? Does anyone have a link to the source data and when it was dated?

IHS are a market research company. Their data is of course just an estimate, but you can take it to be somewhat of a ballpark figure. The estimate isn't too different from other analysts but is certainly the highest one I've seen at the moment.

z0m3le · Jun 13, 2018

Elven_Star said:
That makes Switch's numbers all the more impressive.

PS4 at ~79M; XB1 at ~39M, after 4 and a half years on the market. Switch at ~18M after 1 year on the market, targeting ~38M after 2 years on the market. Honestly this paints a pretty healthy ecosystem for gaming if we ignore that Switch occupies both the Console and Handheld space, showing a general shrinking of dedicated consoles from last gen to this one (even if we ignore the Wii)

bombshell · Jun 13, 2018

Mory Dunz said:
if accurate that's only around an average of like 9m a year.

wtf

What is 'wtf' about that? They're too reliant on a single market and it's a well known average used in estimations for them (8-9m)

Prine · Jun 13, 2018

v_iHuGi said:
360 blew up with Kinect and 360S if I remember correctly.

By accounts seems like Xbox is having a great 2018, think Matt said this in his last call, Xbox growth has been suprising.

Era of not Yakuza · Jun 13, 2018

InquisitorAles said:
So you mean PS4 numbers can be lower as well since someone can trade PS4 for PS4 Slim or Pro?

I have no idea about the real sales of neither console, i just remember the talk about installed base because when the RROD happened the Ps3 had a bigger IB than the 360

Edit: And that is why i'm asking if they are using the term right
Edit 2: Yes, it COULD be the case but I have no idea if it is.

Knight613 · Jun 13, 2018

bombshell said:
What is 'wtf' about that? They're too reliant on a single market and it's a well known average used in estimations for them (8-9m)

That and they basically pride themselves on selling the majority of their consoles during the holiday.

pswii60 · Jun 13, 2018

The era of Luigi said:
You are talking about total sales, in this case either way the number would be accounted in the data.

Exactly, you are agreeing with me.

Mory Dunz said:
if accurate that's only around an average of like 9m a year.

wtf

That's not great but better than I think we've been estimating. It would put it on track to doing 55m+ by the time the next consoles launch. That would put it above the SNES at least. And basically by relying on a couple of markets.

Disco · Jun 13, 2018

curious if this massive lead Sony has will continue in next gen. they have the popularity on their side and are pretty solid with the games lineup and advertising too this gen.

but they've also been lame as shit in terms of console features and their services. Microsoft been doing a much better job of their infrastructure (xbox games pass, backwards compatibility, UHD Discs in their upgraded console etc.). I really hope Sony doesn't continue to rest on its laurels and actually considers upgrading PSN and their console features in the future.

christocolus · Jun 13, 2018

Aint bad..aint bad at all. should be well over that byt he time this gen comes to an end. Also I like this quote very much "$MSFT is significantly expanding its lineup of videogame content this year" Thats very much in line with Phil's recent comments about acquiring even more game studios.

Thorrgal · Jun 13, 2018

bombshell said:
Zhuge already said 35m sold by end of 2017. There's no way they sold 4.1m in the quiet Q1, but it could be realistic number if its shipped. That would need to be compared to 79m PS4 instead of 76.6m.

Actually 35M sold by the end of January, beginning of February. So no way they sold 4M in less than 2 months

Knight613 · Jun 13, 2018

Disco said:
curious if this massive lead Sony has will continue in next gen. they have the popularity on their side and are pretty solid with the games lineup and advertising too this gen.

but they've also been lame as shit in terms of console features and their services. Microsoft been doing a much better job of their infrastructure (xbox games pass, backwards compatibility, UHD Discs in their upgraded console etc.). I really hope Sony doesn't continue to rest on its laurels and actually considers upgrading PSN and their console features in the future.

Sony will have the lead not necessarily thanks to services they offer, but because the majority of their sales come from outside the US. It's a big world out there that Microsoft just kind of ignores.

Era of not Yakuza · Jun 13, 2018

ZhugeEX said:
IHS are a market research company. Their data is of course just an estimate, but you can take it to be somewhat of a ballpark figure. The estimate isn't too different from other analysts but is certainly the highest one I've seen at the moment.

Could you please show us some of that nice graphs that you usually use ? It would be nice to see how the total sales of Ps4 + X1 compared to total sales of Ps3+360

Hilarious_Bearious · Jun 13, 2018

My back of the napkin, out of my ass figure would be about 40 million, so that's reassuring for me. Seems like enough for a healthy, sustainable platform even if they're not leading.

Disco · Jun 13, 2018

Knight613 said:
Sony will have the lead not necessarily thanks to services they offer, but because the majority of their sales come from outside the US. It's a big world out there that Microsoft just kind of ignores.

this is true, I'm just venting about how poor Sony's service offerings have been compared to Microsoft. Xbox Scarlett is practically a lock for backwards compatibility, I hope PS5 follows suit. plus PSN is lacking in features compared to XBL. they seem to not have any drive to offer more either.

SuperSplit · Jun 13, 2018

Alex840 said:
So still 2:1, sounds about right.

Yup, until the new studios start pumping out exclusives for Microsoft they won't be able to gain much ground in improving that ratio.
Halo Infinite could still be a good system seller for them if they nail it though, but this cycle is a messy loss, better to prepare for next gen while offering backwards compatible on X1X @30fps (maybe 60@1080 if nextgen game can do it on the X1X), dumping base & S in the garbage.

bombshell · Jun 13, 2018

Prine said:
By accounts seems like Xbox is having a great 2018, think Matt said this in his last call, Xbox growth has been suprising.

With the X in the market, how is growth from the low sales of 1H 2017 surprising? It would be more surprising if they did not show any growth so far this year.

Thorrgal said:
Actually 35M sold by the end of January, beginning of February. So no way they sold 4M in less than 2 months

That's when he posted it, not for when the estimation was. He confirmed that it was end of year estimation.

ZhugeEX · Jun 13, 2018

Thorrgal said:
Actually 35M sold by the end of January, beginning of February. So no way they sold 4M in less than 2 months

Just to clarify, it was around 35m end of 2017. Not an exact number of course.

But I do agree, this estimate is higher than the others I've seen, but not significantly so.

Era of not Yakuza · Jun 13, 2018

VGC was (almost) right all along.
All along. /s

MrTired · Jun 13, 2018

How do you ship 4.1 million in 3 months let alone sell 4.1 in 3 months and only be up 15% yoy from the 3 month period in 2017 which was there worst?

MajorBritten · Jun 13, 2018

Thats higher than I expected considering its been doing badly in Europe, the the exception of the UK, and sales are pretty much non-existent in Japan.

TheThreadsThatBindUs · Jun 13, 2018

Thorrgal said:
Actually 35M sold by the end of January, beginning of February. So no way they sold 4M in less than 2 months

And in February at that, which is typically the deadest times of the year in terms of hw sales.

The estimates in the OP are a tad too generous.

boi · Jun 13, 2018

IHS is a publicly listed firm. I dont think they produce misinformation.

bombshell · Jun 13, 2018

MrTired said:
How do you ship 4.1 million in 3 months let alone sell 4.1 in 3 months and only be up 15% yoy from the 3 month period in 2017 which was there worst?

IHS is probably overestimating EU and Rotw Xbox numbers compared to Zhuge's estimates. Following his estimation they would be at 36-37 end of March by comparison.

Bulby · Jun 13, 2018

Sounds right and expected. That whole reveal event and the following E3 contained probably the worst decisions I have ever seen from one of the big 3.

I expect them to be a lot better next gen, but I think they have forever turned off a section of gamers.

B.O.O.M. · Jun 13, 2018

MrTired said:
How do you ship 4.1 million in 3 months let alone sell 4.1 in 3 months and only be up 15% yoy from the 3 month period in 2017 which was there worst?

You need to include the digital downloads to make it work

THEVOID · Jun 13, 2018

Wow. Higher than we thought.

Coolwhip · Jun 13, 2018

Is Switch actually going to surpass Xbone this gen?

pswii60 · Jun 13, 2018

Coolwhip said:
Is Switch actually going to surpass Xbone this gen?

Definitely, even if just for the fact that Switch probably won't see a successor until 2022/23, and it also captures both Nintendo's handheld and console markets in one. It's also already sold and is still selling, like hotcakes.

Jenea · Jun 13, 2018

So the ratio must be similar to the beggining of this gen: 2:1

elzeus · Jun 13, 2018

58.96M by holiday 2019! 62M+ if Halo Infinity somehow makes it out by then.

MrTired · Jun 13, 2018

B.O.O.M. said:
You need to include the digital downloads to make it work

THEVOID · Jun 13, 2018

Coolwhip said:
Is Switch actually going to surpass Xbone this gen?

Easily. The question is can it leapfrog too number 1?

IHS: Xbox One at 39.1m consoles sold globally

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account

PlayStatistician

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners

Attempted to circumvent ban with alt account

Senior Analyst at Niko Partners

Prophet of Truth

Prophet of Regret

Prophet of Regret